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At least 19 records

Next-Cycle Optimal Fuel Control for Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Reduction in EGR-Diluted Combustion

In this simulation study, cycle-to-cycle fuel control was used to reduce CCV by injecting additional fuel in operating conditions with sporadic misfires and partial burns. An optimal control policy was proposed that utilizes 1) a physics-based model that tracks in-cylinder gas composition and 2) a one-step-ahead prediction of the combustion efficiency based on a kernel density estimator. The optimal solution, however, presents a tradeoff between the reduction in combustion CCV and the increase in fuel injection quantity required to stabilize the charge. Such a tradeoff can be ad- just by a single parameter embedded in the cost function.

Maldonado, BryanP. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL)↗

A novel triple power cycle featuring a gas turbine cycle with supercritical carbon dioxide and organic Rankine cycles: Thermoeconomic analysis and optimization

In this study, a novel triple power cycle is proposed where waste heat from a gas turbine cycle is utilized to drive a supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO 2 ) recompression cycle and a recuperative organic Rankine cycle (ORC) in sequence. A detailed thermoeconomic model is developed and implemented in MATLAB to evaluate the performance of the proposed cycle under different operating conditions. Optimization using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is performed to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and determine the optimum design conditions of the cycle. The optimization results show that for a 100 MW cycle, the overall thermal efficiency and LCOE are 0.521 and $\$52.819$/MWh, respectively. The turbine inlet temperature of the gas turbine and s-CO 2 cycles are found as the most influential parameters on the thermoeconomic performance of the triple cycle. The proposed triple cycle shows an excellent waste energy recovery potential and superiority over a very thermodynamically efficient cycle from the literature, which included a gas turbine topping cycle and a complex cascade s-CO 2 power cycle used a bottoming cycle. As a result, the proposed triple cycle shows up to 0.9% points higher efficiency while it has fewer heat exchangers and turbomachinery than the cycle from the literature.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle

In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Next-Cycle Optimal Dilute Combustion Control via Online Learning of Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Using Kernel Density Estimators

Dilute combustion using exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) presents a cost-effective method for increasing the efficiency of spark-ignition (SI) engines. However, the maximum amount of EGR that can be used at a given condition is limited by a rapid increment of cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV). This study describes a methodology to design a model-based stochastic optimal controller to adjust the cycle-to-cycle fuel injection quantity in order to reduce CCV and further extend the dilute limit. Given the complexity and chaotic nature of combustion events, the controller was enhanced with online learning in order to identify the statistical properties of combustion efficiency, which are needed to generate predictions for next-cycle events. This study showed that a kernel density estimator (KDE) can be used to learn the combustion properties in real time and can be incorporated into the feedback policy in order to calculate the optimal control command. Experimental results suggested that the dilute limit can be extended from 18.5% to 21% EGR fraction at an operating condition relevant for highway cruising. Additionally, the proposed controller can achieve a large CCV reduction with less fuel enrichment compared to previous methods, overall contributing to an increase in 0.2% indicated fuel conversion efficiency.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Cycle-to-cycle variability in spark-assisted compression ignition engines near optimal mean combustion phasing

Stoichiometric spark-assisted compression ignition (SACI) combustion with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) dilution has demonstrated higher part-load thermal efficiencies compared to spark-ignited engines, while maintaining ultra-low tailpipe emissions. However, SACI is often characterized by high cyclic variability in heat release or torque output, which poses a challenge to its implementation in light-duty vehicles. This paper presents an experimental investigation of cyclic variability in stoichiometric SACI combustion under EGR-dilute conditions, while maintaining mean combustion phasing (θ 50 ) near optimal timing for thermal efficiency. The present work focuses on SACI conditions where the flame-based heat release fraction is between approximately 10% and 40% of the overall heat release, and therefore contributes significantly to the combustion process. For the SACI conditions examined, the variability in θ 50 was driven by variability in autoignition timing, which in turn correlated with the start of measurable heat release (θ 02 ). High variability in θ 50 caused unstable work output due to very late combustion with poor or no end-gas autoignition. The use of a high ignition energy dual-coil offset ignition system had negligible impact in reducing θ 50 variability. Analysis of experimental data from close to 1000 operating conditions showed that the magnitude of θ 50 variability correlates with the flame-based heat release fraction ([Formula: see text]), for a large range of intake pressures, spark timings and exhaust gas recirculation levels. For the SACI conditions examined, combustion phasing variability was largely determined by flame-based combustion and particularly the initial flame formation (θ IGN-02 ), and minimally by the end-gas autoignition heat release. The analysis also demonstrated that θ 50 variability is amplified as the contribution of the flame to the overall heat release increases.

Engineering↗

An investigation of strain cycling behavior of 7075-T6 aluminum under combined state of strain: The effects of out-of-phase, biaxial strain cycling on low cycle fatigue

The effect of out-of-phase strain cycling on the low cycle fatigue of biaxially loaded specimens is discussed. A method to apply phase angles between two strains imposed in two different directions was developed. The data and the proposed theoretical analysis are part of a research program on biaxial strain cycling effect on fatigue life of structural materials.

Zamrik, S. Y.↗

On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction

The characteristics of the minima between sunspot cycles are found to provide important information for predicting the amplitude and timing of the following cycle. For example, the time of the occurrence of sunspot minimum sets the length of the previous cycle, which is correlated by the amplitude-period effect to the amplitude of the next cycle, with cycles of shorter (longer) than average length usually being followed by cycles of larger (smaller) than average size (true for 16 of 21 sunspot cycles). Likewise, the size of the minimum at cycle onset is correlated with the size of the cycle's maximum amplitude, with cycles of larger (smaller) than average size minima usually being associated with larger (smaller) than average size maxima (true for 16 of 22 sunspot cycles). Also, it was found that the size of the previous cycle's minimum and maximum relates to the size of the following cycle's minimum and maximum with an even-odd cycle number dependency. The latter effect suggests that cycle 23 will have a minimum and maximum amplitude probably larger than average in size (in particular, minimum smoothed sunspot number Rm = 12.3 +/- 7.5 and maximum smoothed sunspot number RM = 198.8 +/- 36.5, at the 95-percent level of confidence), further suggesting (by the Waldmeier effect) that it will have a faster than average rise to maximum (fast-rising cycles have ascent durations of about 41 +/- 7 months). Thus, if, as expected, onset for cycle 23 will be December 1996 +/- 3 months, based on smoothed sunspot number, then the length of cycle 22 will be about 123 +/- 3 months, inferring that it is a short-period cycle and that cycle 23 maximum amplitude probably will be larger than average in size (from the amplitude-period effect), having an RM of about 133 +/- 39 (based on the usual +/- 30 percent spread that has been seen between observed and predicted values), with maximum amplitude occurrence likely sometime between July 1999 and October 2000.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Estimating the Size and Timing of Maximum Amplitude for Cycle 23 from Its Early Cycle Behavior

On the basis of the lowest observed smoothed monthly mean sunspot number, cycle 23 appears to have conventionally begun in May 1996, in conjunction with the first appearance of a new cycle, high-latitude spot-group. Such behavior, however, is considered rather unusual, since, previously (based upon the data- available cycles 12-22), the first appearance of a new cycle, high-latitude spot- group has always preceded conventional onset by at least 3 months. Furthermore, accepting May 1996 as the official start for cycle 23 poses a dilemma regarding its projected size and timing of maximum amplitude. Specifically, from the max-min and amplitude-period relationships we infer that cycle 23 should be above average in size and a fast riser, with maximum amplitude occurring before May 2000 (being in agreement with projections for cycle 23 based on precursor information), yet from its initial languid rate of rise (during the first 6 months of the cycle) we infer that it should be below average in size and a slow riser, with maximum amplitude occurring after May 2000. The dilemma vanishes, however, when we use a slightly later-occurring onset. For example, using August 1996, a date associated with a local secondary minimum prior to the rapid rise that began shortly thereafter (in early 1997), we infer that cycle 23's rate of rise is above that for the mean of cycles 1-22, the mean of cycles 10-22 (the modern era cycles), the mean of the modern era'fast risers,' and the largest of the modern era 'slow risers' (i.e., cycle 20), thereby, suggesting that cycle 23 will be both fast-rising and above average in size, peaking before August 2000. Additionally, presuming cycle 23 to be a well- behaved fast-rising cycle (regardless of whichever onset date is used), we also infer that its maximum amplitude likely will measure about 144.0 q+/- 28.8 (from the general behavior found for the bulk of modern era fast risers; i.e., 5 of 7 have had their maximum amplitude to lie within 20% of the mean curve for modern era fast risers). It is apparent, then, that sunspot number growth during 1998 will prove crucial for correctly establishing the size and shape of cycle 23.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Understanding the Origin of the Nonpassivating Behavior of Si-Based Anodes during the Initial Cycles

In this contribution, we combined electrochemical cycling and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) to understand the nonpassivating behavior of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) on Si anodes during the first cycles. Based on galvanostatic measurements, we show that the irreversible capacity loss is reduced after the first cycle, and it stays almost constant from the second cycle onwards. XPS was used to determine the root causes of the Coulombic inefficiency, showing that the rate of decomposition of the organic solvents strongly decreased after the first cycle, whereas the rate of salt decomposition is almost unchanged between cycles. We determine that the inhibition of the decomposition reaction of the organic solvent is responsible for the lower Coulombic loss during the second electrochemical cycle in comparison to the first, whereas the nonpassivating behavior toward the salt decomposition is one of the main causes of capacity loss upon cycling. Here, we further revisit the role of cracking in contributing to capacity loss. Whereas high volumetric expansion remains an issue plaguing the performance of Si anodes, our chronoamperometry studies reveal that the SEI formed on Si anodes does not passivate even when the electrode is fully expanded, and no additional surface is exposed. Overall, our work establishes the need to address the chemical and electrochemical instability of the SEI on the Si anode in addition to the more notorious issue of cracking.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NLS cycle 1 and NLS 2 base heating technical notes. Appendix 3: Preliminary cycle 1 NLS base heating environments. Cycle 1 NLS base heating environments. NLS 2 650K STME base heating environments

A preliminary analysis of National Launch System ascent plume induced base heating environments has been completed to support the Induced Environments Panel's objective to assist in maturing the NLS vehicle (1.5 stage and heavy launch lift vehicle) design. Environments during ascent have been determined from this analysis for a few selected locations on the engine nozzles and base heat shield for both vehicles. The environments reflect early summer 1991 configurations and performance data and conservative methodology. A more complete and thorough analysis is under way to update these environments for the cycle 1 review in January 1992.

Bender, Robert L.↗

Report on Fuel Cycle Facility Requirements for Deployment of Demonstration Reactors and Potential Evolutionary Fuel Cycle Scenarios

A series of fuel cycle scenarios studies were performed to inform on fuel cycle capacities and facilities needed for large-scale deployment of the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) reactors and potential future evolutionary fuel cycle scenarios. The reactor deployment and evolutionary fuel cycle scenarios from the present to 2100 were developed based on the following assumptions: 1) achievement of a net-zero emissions economy in the United States by 2050, which requires a nuclear energy generation capacity of ~250 GWe by 2050, 2) the U.S. economic growth of 1% per year from 2051 to 2100, which results in ~340 GWe of nuclear energy capacity in 2100, and 3) commercial-scale recycling and high burnup fuel technologies are available after 2050. Thus, evolutionary fuel cycles with those advanced nuclear technologies start after 2050. A single once-through fuel cycle scenario was assumed from the present to 2050 to achieve a net-zero emissions economy in the United States, and the following four evolutionary fuel cycle scenarios from 2051 to 2100 were considered, 1) Once through fuel cycle with ARDP reactors (Natrium and Xe-100), 2) Once-through fuel cycle with Breed-and-Burn (B&B) fast reactors, 3) Recycling fuel cycle of used metallic fuel in fast reactors, and 4) Recycle fuel cycle of both used uranium oxide and metallic fuels in fast reactors. The projected front-end and back-end fuel cycle capacity demands are compared with the current domestic and global (if needed) fuel cycle capacities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Voltage cycling as a dynamic operation mode for high temperature electrolysis solid oxide cells

Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells (SOECs) have emerged as a promising technology for the efficient production of H2 via high-temperature electrolysis. However, power input from dynamic energy sources remains a significant challenge for their long-term stability. It is important to analyze the tolerance of cells under dynamic operation conditions. This study focuses on evaluating the impact of voltage cycling on the performance and durability of electrode-supported SOECs. We explore the operational limits and degradation mechanisms of SOECs subjected to various voltage conditions and find that the cells have high tolerance for dynamic voltage. Voltage cycling between 1.3 V and 1.5 V for 9000 cycles does not damage the cell. Conversely, cycling to higher voltages (≥1.7 V) results in accelerated degradation. Advanced characterization is used to screen for various degradation modes post operation. Within the oxygen electrode, XRD and STEM EDS find compositional and phase evolution in all voltage cycled samples including increased decomposition of the air electrode resulting in cation migration. Microstructural analysis of the fuel electrode from nano-CT data shows minimal change throughout the sample set and no evidence of Ni migration, indicating the fuel electrode is stable and not impacted by cycling to higher voltages within the timeframe studied.

Zhu, Zhikuan↗

Performance and Economic Evaluation of sCO2 Bottoming Cycles for Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plants with Capture

Natural gas combined cycles (NGCCs) with carbon capture are expected to play a significant role in decarbonization of the power generation sector. NGCC plants generally use triple pressure reheat steam Rankine power cycles for the bottoming cycle. Some studies in the literature have investigated the application of recompression and cascade style supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles for NGCC bottoming cycle applications but these studies have focused on power plants without carbon capture. However, NGCC plants fitted with post-combustion solvent-based CO2 capture systems will require a significant amount of steam for solvent regeneration and this can have a major impact on the optimal sCO2 bottoming cycle design. This study investigates the performance and economic potential of sCO2 bottoming cycles for H-class gas turbine based NGCC plants with a post-combustion capture system. A portion of the gas turbine exhaust heat is used for generation of steam required for solvent-based capture system while the rest of the waste heat is utilized in an sCO2 bottoming cycle for power generation. Overall, the performance and LCOE of investigated sCO2 bottoming cycles is similar to that of a state-of-the-art triple pressure reheat steam Rankine cycle. As the gas turbine exhaust temperature increases (beyond 630oC), sCO2 bottoming cycles begin to show greater performance and economic benefits compared to a steam Rankine cycle.

Pidaparti, Sandeep↗

On 'Bimodality of the solar cycle' and the duration of cycle 21

Data from the well-observed cycles 8-20 are used to study the duration of cycle 21 and the bimodality of the solar cycle which is clearly seen in the scatter diagrams of descent versus ascent durations. A linear fit for long-period cycles suggests that cycle 21 will have a 141-month cycle duration. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 is found to occur on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet to be associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. Similarities between the two cycles suggest that cycle 21 may also have an extended tail of sustained, low smoothed sunspot number, with the cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Meridional Flow Variations Over Three Solar Cycles - What Happened in Cycle 23?

The meridional flow speed determines the strength of the Sun s polar fields in both surface flux transport models and in flux transport dynamos. The polar fields produced during cycle 23 were half as strong as those produced in the previous two cycles. Helioseismic measurements of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 indicated a decrease in flow velocity. This observation was used in flux transport dynamo models to predict a delayed start for cycle 24 and was consistent with weak polar fields and a slower equatorward drift of the active latitudes during cycle 23. On the other hand, the surface flux transport models require a faster meridional flow to produce the weak polar fields. We have begun measurements of the surface meridional flow by tracking the motions of weak (outside active regions) magnetic field elements in magnetograms from SOHO/MDI over cycle 23 and from NSO/Kitt Peak over cycles 21 to 23. We confirm the slowdown of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 but find that the flow speed returned to its previous level during the declining phase of cycle 23. Furthermore, this appears to be a normal feature of the meridional flow during sunspot cycles. The flow is fast at minima and slow at maxima. The lack of a significantly different meridional flow during cycle 23 is very problematic for both surface flux transport models and flux transport dynamos.

Hathaway, David H.↗