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At least 19 records

Exploring Surface Biophysical-Climate Sensitivity to Tropical Deforestation Rates Using a GCM: A Feasibility Study

Deforestation perturbs both biophysical and carbon feedbacks on climate. However, biophysical feedbacks operate at temporally immediate and spatially focused scales and thus may be sensitive to the rate of deforestation rather than just to total forest-cover loss. Explored here is a method for simulating annual tropical deforestation in the fully coupled Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3) with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) for testing biosphere climate sensitivity to “preservation pathways.” Two deforestation curves were simulated—a 10% deforestation curve with a 10% preservation target (DFC10-PT10) versus a 1% deforestation curve with a 10% preservation target (DFC1-PT10). During active deforestation, albedo, net radiation, latent heat flux, and climate variables were compared for time dependence and sensitivity to tropical tree cover across the tropical band and the Amazon basin, central African, and Southeast Asian regions. The results demonstrated the feasibility of modeling incremental deforestation and detecting both transient and long-term impacts, although a warm/dry bias in CCSM3–DGVM and the absence of carbon feedbacks preclude definitive conclusions on the magnitude of sensitivities. The deforestation rates produced characteristic trends in biophysical variables with DFC10-PT10 resulting in rapid increase/decrease during the initial 10–30 years before leveling off, whereas DFC1-PT10 exhibits gradual changes. The rate had little effect on biophysical and climate sensitivities when averaged over tropical land but produced significant differences at a regional level. Over the long term, the rates produced dissimilar vegetation distributions, despite having the same preservation target in both cases. Overall, these results indicate that the question of rates is one worth further analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Representation of Deforestation Effects on Evapotranspiration in the E3SM Land Model

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in land‐atmosphere coupling of energy, water, and carbon cycles. Following deforestation, ET is typically observed to decrease substantially as a consequence of decreases in leaf area and roots and increases in runoff. Changes in ET (latent heat flux) revise the surface energy and water budgets, which further affects large‐scale atmospheric dynamics and feeds back positively or negatively to long‐term forest sustainability. In this study, we used observations from a recent synthesis of 29 pairs of adjacent intact and deforested FLUXNET sites to improve model parameterization of stomatal characteristics, photosynthesis, and soil water dynamics in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv1). We found that default ELMv1 predicts an increase in ET after deforestation, likely leading to incorrect estimates of the effects of deforestation on land‐atmosphere coupling. The calibrated model accurately represented the FLUXNET observed deforestation effects on ET. Importantly, the search for global optimal parameters converged at values consistent with recent observational syntheses, confirming the reliability of the calibrated physical parameters. Applying this improved model parameterization to the globe scale reduced the bias of annual ET simulation by up to ~600 mm/year. Analysis on the roles of parameters suggested that future model development to improve ET simulation should focus on stomatal resistance and soil water‐related parameterizations. Finally, our predicted differences in seasonal ET changes from deforestation are large enough to substantially affect land‐atmosphere coupling and should be considered in such studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deforestation reshapes land-surface energy-flux partitioning

Land-use and land-cover change significantly modify local land-surface characteristics and water/energy exchanges, which can lead to atmospheric circulation and regional climate changes. In particular, deforestation accounts for a large portion of global land-use changes, which transforms forests into other land cover types, such as croplands and grazing lands. Many previous efforts have focused on observing and modeling land–atmosphere–water/energy fluxes to investigate land–atmosphere coupling induced by deforestation. However, interpreting land–atmosphere–water/energy-flux responses to deforestation is often complicated by the concurrent impacts from shifts in land-surface properties versus background atmospheric forcings. In this study, we used 29 paired FLUXNET sites, to improve understanding of how deforested land surfaces drive changes in surface-energy-flux partitioning. Each paired sites included an intact forested and non-forested site that had similar background climate. We employed transfer entropy, a method based on information theory, to diagnose directional controls between coupling variables, and identify nonlinear cause–effect relationships. Transfer entropy is a powerful tool to detective causal relationships in nonlinear and asynchronous systems. The paired eddy covariance flux measurements showed consistent and strong information flows from vegetation activity (gross primary productivity (GPP)) and physical climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, air temperature) to evaporative fraction (EF) over both non-forested and forested land surfaces. More importantly, the information transfers from radiation, precipitation, and GPP to EF were significantly reduced at non-forested sites, compared to forested sites. We then applied these observationally constrained metrics as benchmarks to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). ELM predicted vegetation controls on EF relatively well, but underpredicted climate factors on EF, indicating model deficiencies in describing the relationships between atmospheric state and surface fluxes. Moreover, changes in controls on surface energy flux partitioning due to deforestation were not detected in the model. We highlight the need for benchmarking model simulated surface-energy fluxes and the corresponding causal relationships against those of observations, to improve our understanding of model predictability on how deforestation reshapes land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle

The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible ‘tipping point’ when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are poorly understood. Here we show that reduction in evapotranspiration from 20 years of deforestation dried the atmosphere persistently and caused moisture decoupling, i.e. an opposite sign of moisture change between the lower and middle troposphere. Increased deforestation exacerbated the lower troposphere drying and caused it to penetrate deeper into the middle troposphere in the dry and transition seasons over monsoon forests and savannas. Deforestation induced warming-enhanced buoyant updrafts, elevated hot and dry air and thereby reduced downward mixing of water supplies from the tropical Atlantic that normally moisten the Amazon forests. The severe atmospheric desiccation in the southern and eastern Amazon cannot be compensated by enhanced water supplies from the Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating an irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle exacerbated by rapid deforestation. The more recent drying through the seasons over rainforests and during the wet season over the transition zones from rainforests to monsoon forests and savannas, however, suggests a window of opportunity for preventing ecosystem collapse with forest conservation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deforestation decreases spatial turnover and alters the network interactions in soil bacterial communities

Despite important progress in understanding the influence of deforestation on the bacterial α diversity and community structure at local scales, little is known about deforestation impacts in terms of spatial turnover and soil bacterial community network interactions, especially at regional or global scales. In this study, to address this research gap, we examined the bacterial spatial turnover rate and the species networks in paired primary and secondary forest soils along a 3700-km north-south transect in eastern China using high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The spatial turnover rate of bacterial communities was higher in primary forests than in secondary, suggesting deforestation increased biotic homogenization at a large geographic scale. Multiple regression on matrices analysis revealed that both geographic distance and soil properties (especially soil pH and organic matter availability) strongly affected bacterial spatial turnover. Through the phylogenetic molecular ecological network approach, we demonstrate that the bacterial network of primary forests was more intricate than in secondary forests. This suggests that microbial species have greater niche-sharing and more interactions in primary forests as compared to secondary forests. On the other hand, the bacterial network in secondary forests was more modular, and the taxa tended to co-occur, with positive correlations accounting for 82% of all potential interactions. Lastly, our findings demonstrate that anthropogenic deforestation has clear effects on bacterial spatial turnover and network interactions, with potential for serious consequences such as microbial diversity loss in primary forests.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Biophysical, Carbon, and Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Rates in CCSM4-CNDV*

The biophysical–climate and combined biophysical and carbon–climate feedbacks of tropical deforestation rates are explored through sensitivity analyses using the Community Climate System Model 4 with prognostic carbon–nitrogen and dynamic vegetation. Simulations test 5%, 2%, 1%, and 0.5% annual deforestation rates, each paired with preservation targets of 10% per tropical tree type. Perturbations are applied over pan-tropical land but analyses also explore responses over the subcontinental areas of the Amazon basin, central Africa, and Southeast Asia. Sensitivities [expressed as the change in a variable per million square kilometers (Mkm 2 ) of change in tree cover] and means of selected biophysical, carbon, and climate variables during and after deforestation are compared across rates. The most apparent effect of the rates is in hastening/postponing climate change, but otherwise results show no consistent differences across rates and vary more across subcontinents (with the Amazon basin reflecting highest sensitivities in albedo and ground temperatures, and Southeast Asia for total ecosystem carbon). Furthermore, biophysical feedbacks alone were found to have significant impact on climate over subcontinental scales. In the Amazon, ground temperature increase due to biophysical feedbacks is as much as 55%, and precipitation decrease up to 61%, of combined biophysical and carbon impacts. Replication with other models is required. While it is still unclear whether a slow but prolonged deforestation differs in impacts from one that is rapid but short, the rate can still be relevant to planning with regards to the timing of impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deforestation strengthens atmospheric transport of mineral dust and phosphorus from North Africa to the Amazon

Phosphorus contained in atmospheric mineral dust aerosol originating from Africa fertilizes tropical forests in Amazonia. However, the mechanisms influencing this nutrient transport pathway remain poorly understood. Here we use the Community Earth System Model to investigate how large-scale deforestation affects mineral dust aerosol transport and deposition in the tropics. We find that the surface biophysical changes that accompany deforestation produce a warmer, drier and windier surface environment that perturbs atmospheric circulation and enhances long-range dust transport from North Africa to the Amazon. Tropics-wide deforestation weakens the Hadley circulation, which in turn, leads to a northward expansion of the Hadley cell and increases surface air pressure over the Sahara Desert. Additionally, the high pressure anomaly over the Sahara, in turn, increases northeasterly winds across North Africa and the tropical North Atlantic Ocean, which subsequently increases dust transport to the South America continent. We estimate that the annual atmospheric phosphorus deposition from dust significantly increases by 27% (P < 0.01) in the Amazon under a scenario of complete deforestation. These interactions exemplify how land surface changes can modify tropical nutrient cycling, which in turn, may have consequences for long-term changes in tropical ecosystem productivity and biodiversity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Abstract Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite–derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon–climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO 2 physiology and deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Further, other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km 2 ), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y −1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y −1 ) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y −1 ) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y −1 ). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y −1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗

Emissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions

Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities are being considered strategies to reduce global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share of importers imposing such restrictions and the potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they could result in negative economic implications for producers and consumers. We quantify future emissions and economic implications of oil palm and soybean import restrictions. Current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact due to the EU’s otherwise small and diminishing share of global palm and soy demand. If extended beyond the EU, such import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative LUC emissions by 2050 in key oil crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $\$$4.1-$\$$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The challenge of assessing social dimensions of avoided deforestation: Examples from Cambodia

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD +) has moved to the central stage of the climate change debate by being promoted as a significant, cheap, and quick win-win strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate climate change. In order to be successful in reducing emissions while providing the projected social and environmental co-benefits, REDD + needs to overcome key challenges of insecure forest tenure and inequity in the distribution of benefits. Such challenges threaten to affect the livelihoods and well-being in the local communities and in turn the effectiveness of REDD+. While REDD + programs will affect the participating communities, there is limited knowledge as to what social impacts these projects may bring to the local population. Similarly, assessment of these social dimensions has received little attention until recently, and is consequently out of sync with the realities of REDD + projects. The present paper aims to shed light on the methodological and contextual challenges in the assessment of the social dimensions of REDD+. Some of the main social concerns of REDD + are outlined with an emphasis on the uniqueness and complexity of REDD + interventions. Recently proposed approaches to assess social impacts in REDD + are critically assessed in terms of the diversity of frameworks proposed, choice of social indicators, and data collection requirements. Specifically, these methodological implications are further discussed in the light of the social dimensions and the prescribed regulations of REDD + in a Cambodian context. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Insecure tenure and inequitable benefit sharing are main social concerns in REDD +. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two guides to social assessments in REDD + are critically reviewed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mismatch between social assessment requirements and the reality of REDD + is analyzed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Concrete, topical examples from Cambodian REDD + are used. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Support the claim to add qualitative assessment of social dimensions in REDD +.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

Deforestation size influences rainfall: Biosphere–atmosphere interactions

We report that changes to the land surface, such as land clearing and logging of forest areas, impacts moisture cycling. Now a shift from small-scale to large-scale deforestation in the southern Amazon is found to modify the mechanisms and patterns of regional precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗