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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing Infrastructure Interdependencies Using Network-Of-Networks Modeling

Infrastructure networks play a crucial role in our day-to-day lives, and modeling these infrastructure networks can help decisionmakers prepare for and respond to disruptions such as natural disasters or cyberattacks. Because these infrastructure networks depend on each other, it is not sufficient to model a single network in isolation. We build on previous single-network-modeling techniques to develop a methodology for modeling infrastructure interdependencies as a Network-of-Networks. Using distributionlevel data from a real U.S. city on the power grid, road geometry, and hospital locations, we show how to apply this methodology to modeling three of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Critical Infrastructure Sectors: Healthcare, Transportation, and Energy. We also analyze three primary metrics before and after a simulated disaster: 1) impact on hospital access; 2) road network impact with the change in betweenness centrality; 3) electric customer outage. We simulate three different disruptions: 1) road flooding from nearby rivers; 2) a malicious actor targeting the road networks; 3) a malicious actor targeting the electric grid. Finally, we discuss how our methodology can be applied to additional infrastructure networks and types of disruption, and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques may be incorporated into this methodology for further research.

Scherrer, Evan [Drake University, Iowa]↗

NASA NTRS1978

Communications technology satellite: United States experiments and disaster communications applications

Ground antennas from 0.6 to 5.0 meters in diameter were used as remote earth terminals by the United States for both wideband (television) and narrowband (voice, data) communication in conjunction with the Canadian Hermes satellite's high power transmitter. Experiments summarized cover teleconferencing and duplex videoconferencing for medical, educational, and civic purposes, as well as the remote interpretation of multilingual broadcasts from the United Nations. The capabilities of the system during real and simulated disasters at airports are assessed. Particular attention is given to miniexperiments for flood control in the Mississippi River basin and in Johnstown, Pennsylvania during the 1977 flood.

Donoughe, P.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Extending the Reach of Pediatric Emergency Preparedness: A Virtual Tabletop Exercise Targeting Children’s Needs

Objectives: Virtual tabletop exercises (VTTXs) simulate disaster scenarios to help participants improve their emergency-planning capacity. The objectives of our study were to (1) evaluate the effectiveness of a VTTX in improving preparedness capabilities specific to children’s needs among pediatricians and public health practitioners, (2) document follow-up actions, and (3) identify exercise strengths and weaknesses. Methods: In February 2017, we conducted and evaluated a VTTX facilitated via videoconferencing among 26 pediatricians and public health practitioners from 4 states. Using a mixed-methods design, we assessed participants’ knowledge and confidence to fulfill targeted federal preparedness capabilities immediately before and after the exercise. We also evaluated the degree to which participants made progress on actions through surveys 1 month (n = 14) and 6 months (n = 14) after the exercise. Results: Participants reported a greater ability to identify their state’s pediatric emergency preparedness strengths and weaknesses after the exercise (16 of 18) compared with before the exercise (10 of 18). We also observed increases in (1) knowledge of and confidence in performing most pediatric emergency preparedness capabilities and (2) most dimensions of interprofessional collaboration. From 1 month to 6 months after the exercise, participants (n = 14) self-reported making progress in increasing awareness for potential preparedness partners and in conducting similar pediatric exercises (from 4-7 for both). Conclusions: Participants viewed the VTTX positively and indicated increased pediatric emergency preparedness knowledge and confidence. Addressing barriers to improving local pediatric emergency preparedness—particularly long term—is an important target for future tabletop exercises.

So, Marvin↗

DOE OSTI2019

Software predicts disaster-driven grid failures

A new, free, open-source software reliably predicts how damage from hurricanes, ice storms, earthquakes, and other extreme events will restrict power delivery from utility grids. The Severe Contingency Solver for Electric Power Transmission is the only software available—commercially or open-source—that reliably supports analysis of extreme events that cause widespread damage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Model-Free Dynamic Voltage Control of a Synchronous Generator-Based Microgrid

The main goal of this paper is to present a new dynamic voltage stability mechanism, based on model-free control (MFC), for effective control and coordination of synchronous generator (SG)-based reactive power resources in a microgrid setting. MFC has shown successful operation in various domains, and this paper presents its first use in the voltage stability of a power system. It is utilized as an online controller to achieve the dynamic voltage stability of a microgrid system under different disturbances and fault conditions. A 21-bus microgrid system fed by SG-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is considered as a use case study. The overall dynamic voltage stability of the microgrid system is investigated using time-domain dynamic simulations during emergency, hazard, and disaster events. Simulation results show that there are significant improvements and enhancements on the dynamic load bus voltage profiles of the microgrid system by the effective model-free control and coordination of the reactive power reserves of the SG-based DERs.

Hatipoglu, Kenan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decoupling Power Quality Issues in Grid-Microgrid Network Using Microgrid Building Blocks

Microgrids are evolving as promising options to enhance reliability of the connected transmission and distribution systems. Traditional design and deployment of microgrids require significant engineering analysis. However, Microgrid Building Blocks (MBB), consisting of modular blocks that integrate seamlessly to form effective microgrids, are promising technologies to enable faster and broader adoption of microgrids. Back-to-Back converter placed at the point of common coupling of microgrid is an integral part of MBB. This paper presents applications of MBB to decouple power quality issues in grid-microgrid network serving power quality sensitive critical loads such as data centers, new grid-edge technologies such as vehicle-to-grid generation, and emergency condition loads such as electric vehicle charging loads during evacuation prior disaster events. Simulation results show that MBB effectively decouple the power quality issues across networks and allow network with low power quality to transfer high-power quality power to connected networks during emergency conditions.

Acharya, Samrat S. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

NASA NTRS2012

Disaster Response Modeling Through Discrete-Event Simulation

Organizations today are required to plan against a rapidly changing, high-cost environment. This is especially true for first responders to disasters and other incidents, where critical decisions must be made in a timely manner to save lives and resources. Discrete-event simulations enable organizations to make better decisions by visualizing complex processes and the impact of proposed changes before they are implemented. A discrete-event simulation using Simio software has been developed to effectively analyze and quantify the imagery capabilities of domestic aviation resources conducting relief missions. This approach has helped synthesize large amounts of data to better visualize process flows, manage resources, and pinpoint capability gaps and shortfalls in disaster response scenarios. Simulation outputs and results have supported decision makers in the understanding of high risk locations, key resource placement, and the effectiveness of proposed improvements.

Wang, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS1972

A digital simulation of message traffic for natural disaster warning communications satellite

Various types of weather communications are required to alert industries and the general public about the impending occurrence of tornados, hurricanes, snowstorms, floods, etc. A natural disaster warning satellite system has been proposed for meeting the communications requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Message traffic for a communications satellite was simulated with a digital computer in order to determine the number of communications channels to meet system requirements. Poisson inputs are used for arrivals and an exponential distribution is used for service.

Hein, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Range Systems Simulation for the NASA Shuttle: Emphasis on Disaster and Prevention Management During Lift-Off

This article describes a decision-making system composed of a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this distributed simulation environment represent the different systems that must collaborate to establish the Expectation of Casualties (E(sub c)) caused by a failed Space Shuttle launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of the spacecraft shortly after liftoff. This decision-making tool employs Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, a blast model, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system. Since one of the important features of this proposed simulation environment is to measure blast, toxic, and debris effects, the clear benefits is that it can help safety managers not only estimate the population at risk, but also to help plan evacuations, make sheltering decisions, establish the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster.

Rabelo, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS1978

Communications technology satellite - United States experiments and disaster communications applications

The experimental Communications Technology Satellite (CTS), also called Hermes, uses a high-power transmitter and 12- and 14-GHz frequencies for wideband (two- and one-way television) and narrowband (voice, data) communications. In the joint program, both Canada and the United States have conducted a variety of communications experiments. This report concentrates on U.S. CTS experiments and miniexperiments that use ground antennas from 0.6 to 5 meters in diameter. The U.S. CTS experiments program is synopsized in this report. The use of CTS for simulated and actual disasters is summarized.

Donoughe, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development of high resolution simulations of the atmospheric environment using the MASS model

Numerical simulations were performed with a very high resolution (7.25 km) version of the MASS model (Version 4.0) in an effort to diagnose the vertical wind shear and static stability structure during the Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on 28 January 1986. These meso-beta scale simulations reveal that the strongest vertical wind shears were concentrated in the 200 to 150 mb layer at 1630 GMT, i.e., at about the time of the disaster. These simulated vertical shears were the result of two primary dynamical processes. The juxtaposition of both of these processes produced a shallow (30 mb deep) region of strong vertical wind shear, and hence, low Richardson number values during the launch time period. Comparisons with the Cape Canaveral (XMR) rawinsonde indicates that the high resolution MASS 4.0 simulation more closely emulated nature than did previous simulations of the same event with the GMASS model.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aggregation Tool to Create Curated Data albums to Support Disaster Recovery and Response

Despite advances in science and technology of prediction and simulation of natural hazards, losses incurred due to natural disasters keep growing every year. Natural disasters cause more economic losses as compared to anthropogenic disasters. Economic losses due to natural hazards are estimated to be around $6-$10 billion dollars annually for the U.S. and this number keeps increasing every year. This increase has been attributed to population growth and migration to more hazard prone locations such as coasts. As this trend continues, in concert with shifts in weather patterns caused by climate change, it is anticipated that losses associated with natural disasters will keep growing substantially. One of challenges disaster response and recovery analysts face is to quickly find, access and utilize a vast variety of relevant geospatial data collected by different federal agencies such as DoD, NASA, NOAA, EPA, USGS etc. Some examples of these data sets include high spatio-temporal resolution multi/hyperspectral satellite imagery, model prediction outputs from weather models, latest radar scans, measurements from an array of sensor networks such as Integrated Ocean Observing System etc. More often analysts may be familiar with limited, but specific datasets and are often unaware of or unfamiliar with a large quantity of other useful resources. Finding airborne or satellite data useful to a natural disaster event often requires a time consuming search through web pages and data archives. Additional information related to damages, deaths, and injuries requires extensive online searches for news reports and official report summaries. An analyst must also sift through vast amounts of potentially useful digital information captured by the general public such as geo-tagged photos, videos and real time damage updates within twitter feeds. Collecting and aggregating these information fragments can provide useful information in assessing damage in real time and help direct recovery efforts. The search process for the analyst could be made much more efficient and productive if a tool could go beyond a typical search engine and provide not just links to web sites but actual links to specific data relevant to the natural disaster, parse unstructured reports for useful information nuggets, as well as gather other related reports, summaries, news stories, and images. This presentation will describe a semantic aggregation tool developed to address similar problem for Earth Science researchers. This tool provides automated curation, and creates "Data Albums" to support case studies. The generated "Data Albums" are compiled collections of information related to a specific science topic or event, containing links to relevant data files (granules) from different instruments; tools and services for visualization and analysis; information about the event contained in news reports, and images or videos to supplement research analysis. An ontology-based relevancy-ranking algorithm drives the curation of relevant data sets for a given event. This tool is now being used to generate a catalog of Hurricane Case Studies at Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC), one of NASA's Distribute Active Archive Centers. Another instance of the Data Albums tool is currently being created in collaboration with NASA/MSFC's SPoRT Center, which conducts research on unique NASA products and capabilities that can be transitioned to the operational community to solve forecast problems. This new instance focuses on severe weather to support SPoRT researchers in their model evaluation studies

Ramachandran, Rahul↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗

NASA NTRS2005

Simulation of Range Safety for the NASA Space Shuttle

This paper describes a simulation environment that seamlessly combines a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this simulation environment represent the different systems that must interact in order to determine the Expectation of casualties (E(sub c)) resulting from the toxic effects of the gas dispersion that occurs after a disaster affecting a Space Shuttle within 120 seconds of lift-off. The utilization of the Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system are all integrated to create this environment. This simulation environment can help safety managers estimate the population at risk in order to plan evacuation, make sheltering decisions, determine the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster. This simulation environment may also be modified and used for the landing phase of a space vehicle but will not be discussed in this paper.

Rabelo, Luis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Test Exploration of Integrated Wildfire Response Operations with Crewed and Uncrewed Air Assets

Since 2016, JAXA and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster response operations. Through the collaboration, supporting systems from the respective agencies have been successfully integrated and demonstrated in multiple activities ranging from localized simulations and flight tests to large-scale national disaster drills. This paper describes findings from the most recent flight test by JAXA using a crewed helicopter conducting wildfire response operations in proximity to an area in which simulated small UAS, supported by UTM services, were conducting prescribed burn operations.

disaster response↗

NASA NTRS2005

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Considerations for the Integration of AAM Technologies in Emergency Response Operations

Since 2016, JAXA and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster response operations. Through the collaboration, supporting systems from the respective agencies have been successfully integrated and demonstrated in multiple activities ranging from localized simulations and flight tests to large-scale national disaster drills. As the collaboration has matured and a new NASA project formulated, the next steps in progressing the goals of the partnership activity are the alignment and potential informing of standards related to disaster response operations. This presentation is the first public outreach to the ASTM standards organization to promote awareness of the ongoing work and to identify areas of potential engagement to develop necessary standards.

disaster response↗