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At least 19 records

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bark morphological and chemical features are differentially correlated with disease resistance and yield in hybrid poplar taxa

In the southeastern United States, the establishment of short-rotation intensively cultured plantations of hybrid poplar has been hindered by its susceptibility to stem cankers. We evaluated the tradeoffs between biomass yield and disease tolerance in hybrid poplar genotypes belonging to P. deltoides × P. maximowiczii (DM), P. deltoides × P. nigra (DN), P. trichocarpa × P. maximowiczii (TM), and P. deltoides × P. deltoides (DD) taxa. We hypothesized that canker resistant genotypes will have thicker bark but bark thickness and biomass yield will be negatively correlated. After two growing seasons, the DD genotypes developed thicker bark compared to the genotypes of other taxa and bark thickness was not correlated with biomass yield in the DD genotypes (R 2 = 0.002). However, in the TM, DM, and DN genotypes, bark thickness was negatively correlated with biomass yield (R 2 = 0.33–0.77). Disease incidence studies revealed that the DM genotypes were most susceptible to canker whereas no disease was detected in DD genotypes. Furthermore, bark analysis conducted by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy coupled with multivariate analysis showed that that DD genotypes to be chemically separate from the three hybrid genotypes and that bark chemistry was correlated with canker disease incidence. Taken together, these results reveal that it is possible to generate hybrid poplar genotypes with thicker bark, disease resistance, and higher biomass yields. This insight should guide further efforts to develop genetically improved hybrid poplar genotypes, both in terms of biomass yield and disease tolerance, for cultivation in the southeastern United States. Hybrid poplar cultivation in southeastern United States is hindered by its susceptibility to stem cankers. We evaluated tradeoffs between yield and canker disease resistance in various hybrid poplar genotypes. After two growing seasons, the DD genotypes showed disease resistance and developed thicker bark that was chemically distinct from the other genotypes. Bark thickness was not correlated with yield in the DD genotypes but was negatively correlated with yield in the other genotypes. These results will guide the development of hybrid poplar genotypes that are both disease resistant and high yielding for cultivation in the southeastern United States.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Identification of Colletotrichum aenigma as the new causal agent of leaf blight disease on Aucuba japonica Thunb., and screenings of effective fungicides for its sustainable management

Aucuba japonica Thunb is an evergreen woody ornamental plant with significant economic and ecological values. It also produces aucubin, showing a variety of biological activities. It is widely planted in the southwest region of China, including karst landscape areas in Guizhou Province. In January 2022, a serious leaf blight disease was observed on the leaves of A. japonica in the outdoor gardens of Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, China. The causal agent was identified as Colletotrichum aenigma through amplification and sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region, translation of the chitin synthase ( CHS ) and actin ( ACT ) genes, and morphological characterizations. Koch’s postulates were confirmed by its pathogenicity on healthy leaves, including re-isolation and identification. To our knowledge, this is the first report of C. aenigma causing leaf blight on A. japonica worldwide. To identify pathogen characteristics that could be utilized for future disease management, the effects of temperature and light on mycelial growth, conidia production, and conidial germination, and the effects of humidity on conidial germination were studied. Optimal temperatures for mycelial growth of C. aenigma BY827 were 25–30°C, while 15°C and 35°C were favorable for conidia production. Concurrently, alternating 10-h light and 14-h dark, proved to be beneficial for mycelial growth and conidial germination. Additionally, conidial germination was enhanced at 90% humidity. In vitro screenings of ten chemical pesticides to assess their efficacy in suppressing C. aenigma representative strain BY827. Among them, difenoconazole showed the best inhibition rate, with an EC 50 (concentration for 50% of maximal effect) value of 0.0148 μg/ml. Subsequently, field experiment results showed that difenoconazole had the highest control efficiency on A. japonica leaf blight (the decreasing rate of disease incidence and decreasing rate of disease index were 44.60 and 47.75%, respectively). Interestingly, we discovered that C. aenigma BY827 may develop resistance to mancozeb, which is not reported yet among Colletotrichum spp. strains. In conclusion, our study provided new insights into the causal agent of A. japonica leaf blight, and the effective fungicides evaluated provided an important basis and potential resource for the sustainable control of A. japonica leaf blight caused by C. aenigma in the field.

Fan, Ruidong↗

RETRO RX

RETRO Rx is an R&D 100 Gold Award-winning suite of tools that provides a new class of analytics in the space between traditional epidemiological models and unanalyzed spreadsheets of data. Unlike traditional models, these tools provide analysts, scientists, practitioners, and decision makers a way to easily and effectively do sophisticated analyses using a simple user interface. AIDO guides users at the early stages of a disease outbreak by comparing the current parameters to historic outbreaks. RED Alert constructs a broad historical picture of disease incidence (recent outbreak included) to detect disease reemergence at its earliest stages, locally and globally. RETRO Rx compiles data and presents analysis in a clear, concise visual format to support disease mitigation and prevention planning. Both are available currently as web-based apps. A prototype of the RED Alert mobile app with enhanced functionality is available for beta testing and AIDO mobile app development is planned.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Advocating for Coccidioidomycosis to Be a Reportable Disease Nationwide in the United States and Encouraging Disease Surveillance across North and South America

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) has been a known health threat in the United States (US) since the 1930s, though not all states are currently required to report disease cases. Texas, one of the non-reporting states, is an example of where both historical and contemporary scientific evidence define the region as endemic, but we don’t know disease incidence in the state. Mandating coccidioidomycosis as a reportable disease across more US states would increase disease awareness, improve clinical outcomes, and help antifungal drug and vaccine development. It would also increase our understanding of where the disease is endemic and the relationships between environmental conditions and disease cases. This is true for other nations in North and South America that are also likely endemic for coccidioidomycosis, especially Mexico. This commentary advocates for US state and territory epidemiologists to define coccidioidomycosis as a reportable disease and encourages disease surveillance in other endemic regions across North and South America in order to protect human health and reduce disease burden.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Resistance Loci to Southern Rust Mapped in a Temperate Maize Diversity Panel

Southern rust is a severe foliar disease of maize (Zea mays) resulting from infection with the obligate biotrophic fungus Puccinia polysora. This disease reduces photosynthetic productivity, which in turn reduces yields, with the greatest yield losses (up to 50%) associated with earlier onset infections. P. polysora urediniospores overwinter only in tropical and subtropical regions but cause outbreaks when environmental conditions favor initial infection. Increased temperatures and humidity during the growing season combined with an increased frequency of moderate winters are likely to increase the frequency of severe southern rust outbreaks in the U.S. Corn Belt. In summer 2020, a severe outbreak of southern rust was observed in eastern Nebraska, United States. We scored a replicated maize association panel planted in Lincoln, NE for disease severity and found that disease incidence and severity showed significant variation among maize genotypes. Genome-wide association studies identified four loci associated with significant quantitative variation in disease severity. These loci were associated with candidate genes with plausible links to quantitative disease resistance. A transcriptome-wide association study identified additional genes associated with disease severity. Together, these results indicate that substantial diversity in resistance to southern rust exists among current temperate-adapted maize germplasm, including several candidate loci that may explain the observed variation in resistance to southern rust. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license .

Plant Sciences↗

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Surveilling Influenza Incidence With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web Traffic Data: Demonstration Using a Novel Dataset

Influenza epidemics result in a public health and economic burden worldwide. Traditional surveillance techniques, which rely on doctor visits, provide data with a delay of 1 to 2 weeks. A means of obtaining real-time data and forecasting future outbreaks is desirable to provide more timely responses to influenza epidemics. This study aimed to present the first implementation of a novel dataset by demonstrating its ability to supplement traditional disease surveillance at multiple spatial resolutions. We used internet traffic data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website to determine the potential usability of this data source. Additionally, we tested the traffic generated by 10 influenza-related pages in 8 states and 9 census divisions within the United States and compared it against clinical surveillance data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Regional Differences in the Structure of Juglans nigra Phytobiome Reflect Geographical Differences in Thousand Cankers Disease Severity

Thousand cankers disease threatens Juglans nigra (Eastern Black Walnut) in urban and natural landscapes. Incidence and severity of thousand cankers disease is higher in the host’s introduced range in the western United States. We hypothesized that these differences are driven partly by geographical variation in the host phytobiome due to its roles in host stress tolerance, nutrient acquisition, and defense. To evaluate the role of the phytobiome in mediating thousand cankers disease, we characterized the J. nigra phytobiome of diseased and healthy trees in portions of its native (Indiana and Tennessee) and introduced (Washington) ranges. Grafted clones present in each state and open-pollinated populations were sampled. DNA was extracted from soil and branch (caulosphere) tissues and internal transcribed spacer and 16s regions were sequenced for characterization of fungal and bacterial communities. We found that microbial communities in the caulosphere and soil differ between native and introduced ranges of J. nigra and harbor different mutualistic and pathogenic microorganisms. Additionally, caulosphere microbial communities were more species rich and diverse in the native range of J. nigra, suggesting greater levels of functional redundancy and multifunctionality in the native-range phytobiome compared with the introduced range. We also found higher network complexity in the caulosphere of trees in the introduced range and evidence for two alternative stable community states associated with diseased and healthy trees. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that geographical variation in thousand cankers disease incidence and severity is partially driven by differences in the phytobiome of J. nigra in its introduced and native ranges.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Computed tomography (CT) in the evaluation of bladder and ureteral trauma: indications, technique, and diagnosis

Introduction: Trauma to the genitourinary system includes blunt and penetrating injuries to bladder and ureters. These are rare injuries and are overlooked as other abdominal and pelvic injuries often take priority. Delayed diagnosis can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. Computed tomography has taken a central role in the imaging of the ureters and bladder. Methods: This article reviews the anatomic relationships, mechanisms of injury, and clinical presentation to help physicians determine when bladder and ureteral injuries should be suspected and further imaging should be pursued. Radiologic evaluation of bladder and ureteral injury with CT cystography and CT urography, respectively, will be reviewed. Conclusion: CT cystography and CT urography are effective tools in identifying potentially serious injuries to the genitourinary system. Timely recognition of these injuries can be crucial for the overall management and prognosis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Management of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in the Pediatric Patient

Purpose of Review: Pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Herein we review the diagnosis and classification for pediatric PAH and detail the current therapeutic options available for use in the pediatric PAH population. Recent Findings: Classification and treatment of pediatric PAH is guided by adult criteria and treatment algorithms, yet the distribution of factors contributing to PAH in children differs significantly from that seen in adults. It is necessary to understand these differences in order to appropriately tailor therapy to the needs of the child or adolescent. An expanding array of targeted PAH drugs are now approved for use in adults, and many of these drugs are used “off-label” to treat children and adolescents with PAH. Use of these novel therapies has coincided with marked improvement in outcomes, suggesting significant benefit. However, because most of these drugs have not been studied in rigorous randomized, controlled trials in children, it is critical that physicians understand their mechanisms of action, potential benefits, and safety profiles. Summary: Pediatric PAH outcomes have improved substantially in the modern era, coinciding with the “off-label” use of targeted PAH drugs in children and adolescents. Ideally, care should be provided at centers with specialized expertise in the diagnosis and treatment of pediatric PAH by providers who understand the appropriate diagnostic algorithms, classification schemes, and treatment approaches.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗