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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Damages to Remainder Parcels in Right-of-Way Acquisitions for Expanding Transportation Infrastructure: Using a Truncated Finite-Mixture Model

Right-of-way acquisition is a critical component of transportation infrastructure development. Transportation infrastructure projects cannot proceed without proper right-of-way acquisition or may face significant delays. State Departments of Transportation frequently acquire parcels of land for roadway expansion projects. A majority of these acquisitions can be partial takings, referring to a portion of a parcel that is acquired. The remainder of the property usually suffers economic changes due to the partial acquisition, which can be calculated as damage percentages. The damage percentage represents the extent to which the remaining land or property value has been diminished due to the acquisition. It reflects the remaining property value percentage that may have been lost or compromised due to the acquisition. Here, this study aims to provide a robust model to estimate damage percentages to the remainder parcels that may help state Departments of Transportation appraisers make early predictions about the damages in cases involving partial takings. The research uses 509 appraisal reports from the Tennessee Department of Transportation to identify the key parcel attributes that influence the percentage of damages. Three regression models are developed: a linear regression model, a finite-mixture model (FMM), and a truncated FMM with two latent classes. The modeling results show that the truncated FMM with two classes outperforms the other models. To validate the models, actual sales data is collected and analyzed for 59 properties, and the results suggest that the model predictions are fairly accurate. A predictive tool is developed based on the models to help appraisers anticipate right-of-way damages under different scenarios and can provide early predictions about the damages.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the accuracy of time-fraction and ductility exhaustion approaches for creep-fatigue damage prediction through feature-test validation

Determining creep-fatigue damage formation is critical for elevated temperature components integrity. This study evaluates creep-fatigue assessments with emphasis on differences between creep damage models. Evaluated are the time-fraction model and the classical and stress-modified ductility exhaustion creep damage models. This work extends the domain of stress-modified ductility exhaustion models by introducing and validating such formalism to Ni-based alloys. The fidelity of the assessments was benchmarked against uniaxial creep-fatigue and multiaxial feature tests of Alloy 617. For uniaxial specimens, best estimate predictions rank ductility exhaustion as the most accurate and precise and time-fraction as markedly conservative. For feature tests, ductility exhaustion predictions are within < 4.0 times difference, whereas time-fraction underpredicts life by factors of 7–14. The observations suggest ductility exhaustion models as alternative to time-fraction models in design codes for situations requiring characterization of the design margin. Further work in employing such models to assess other relevant phenomena (e.g., stress relaxation cracking) is discussed.

creep-fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2022

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗
DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Method for Projecting Cloud Shadows Onto a Central Receiver Field to Predict Receiver Damage

This work demonstrates methods of mapping high-spatial-resolution direct normal irradiance (DNI) data from satellites, Total Sky Imagers (TSIs), and analogous data sources onto a heliostat field for characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of the incident flux on a central receiver tower during cloud transient events. The mapping methods are incorporated into an optical software module that interfaces with CoPylot–SolarPILOT’s python API– to provide computationally efficient optical simulation of the heliostat field and the solar power tower. Eventually, this optical model will be incorporated into optimization models whereby a plant operator can understand the effects of cloud transient events on overall power production and receiver lifetime due to creep-fatigue damage and therefore make better informed decisions about receiver shutdown events. By more accurately modelling the effects of cloud events on receiver flux maps, this work may determine the magnitude and frequency of thermal cycling on receiver tubes and panels using actual or realistic cloud shapes instead of averaged DNI values–which may undercount the total cycle number. This work may also prevent unnecessary plant shutdowns due to overly precautionary control strategies and characterize the relative impact of various cloud types on receiver life. We plan to eventually integrate this methodology into the System Advisor Model (SAM) to improve performance model accuracy during periods of cloudiness. In this paper, we demonstrate generating DNI maps and mapping them to a solar field in CoPylot using 10 m resolution data from publicly available Sentinel-2 satellite data over the Crescent Dunes plant.

Mullin, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting oxidation damage of ultra high-temperature carbide ceramics in extreme environments using machine learning

Determining the oxidation resistance of UHTC carbides in extreme environments is challenging theoretically and experimentally due to the high dimensional complexity of influencing variables and intricate testing setups. Herein we demonstrate the use of machine learning (ML) models trained with experimental literature data to predict the oxide thickness of UHTC carbides exposed to air based on composition, mean grain size, relative densification, holding time, and temperature. A multi-dimensional database with 76 occurrences is created containing experimental results of Hf, Zr, and Ta carbides plus additives. In this study, the preprocessed database is then used to train ML models to predict their oxidation behavior. The trained model predicts the oxidation damage in the form of an average oxide thickness in UHTC carbides with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ±65.45 μm for samples in the testing set that developed thicknesses up to 1000 μm. The model successfully predicted oxidation damage for a recession rate lower than 60 μm/min. It is noticed that the ensemble method MAE is increased to ±134.34 μm while forecasting the oxidation of samples with a recession rate higher than the threshold. The unprecedented approach is a novel way to predict the damage through the oxidation of carbide compounds before processing for a smarter design with room for improvement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting oxidation damage in ultra high-temperature borides: A machine learning approach

Ultra-high temperature (UHT) borides are ceramics materials with melting points above 3000 °C for structural applications in extreme environments. However, at temperatures exceeding 1600 °C and under oxidizing conditions, the material suffers from detrimental degradation. Optimized design and performance of diboride materials under such extreme conditions requires filling the missing composition-microstructure-oxidation gap. This study proposes a computational data-driven framework to connect the processing and microstructure of Ultra-high temperature borides with the oxidation damage. Random Forest Regressor (RFR) model is adopted to forecast the oxide scale thickness developed after oxidation testing based on processing variables and microstructural features. The model trained on a dataset consisting of 107 samples of experimental data extracted from the literature aims to predict oxidation damage. With proper data manipulation and fine model tuning, the predictor could forecast the oxide scale thickness of UHT diborides with a Mean Absolute Error of 37.45 μm and an R-square of 0.83. This model could be used as a high-throughput scheme to design and test new UHT diborides materials computationally. Furthermore, a model with larger composition capabilities could also be developed in the future as more experimental data become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting displacement damage for ion irradiation: Origin of the overestimation of vacancy production in SRIM full-cascade calculations

Ion irradiation and implantation have wide applications that demand accurate determination of displacement damage profile and distribution of implanted ion concentration. The prediction of vacancies is especially important to determine displacements per atom (dpa), the standard parameter of primary radiation damage in materials. However, significant discrepancies exist in estimations of vacancies between full-cascade (F-C) and quick calculation (Q-C) options in the popular computer code SRIM. This study inspected the SRIM code and a relatively new code called Iradina, which uses a similar methodology, to develop an understanding of the origin of vacancy overestimation in the F-C options for SRIM and Iradina. Here, we found that the default values of thresholds (namely final energy in SRIM and replacement energy in Iradina) in displacement production calculations results in excessively large number of calculated vacancies and very few replacements. After conducting multiple calculations using SRIM, Iradina, and MARLOWE (all based on the binary collision approximation), a comparison of the results indicates that there is a shortcoming in the SRIM and Iradina F-C methodology for treating near-threshold collisions. This issue is responsible for the deficiency of replacements and excess of calculated vacancies in the SRIM and Iradina F-C results. Drawing on the principles of collision physics, we propose recommendations for modifying the source codes to address these issues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Damage Accumulations Predictions for Boiler Components Via Microstructurally Informed Material Models

The goal of the project was to model material behavior and degradation during cyclic plasticity— with and without hold time—for nickel-based superalloys used in USC (ultra-super-critical) and A-USC (advanced-ultra-super-critical) boiler components. The study provided physically informed models, capturing the microstructural changes taking place in the industrial components under cyclic loading and long duration stress (up to 300,000 hours) and high temperature exposure (1100°F/593°C to 1400°F/760°C). The major developments were: 1) Qualitative and quantitative understanding of microstructure evolution (gamma prime precipitates), deformation (dislocation density), and damage mechanisms of Haynes ® 282 alloy. 2) Qualitative understanding of microstructural features generating local strain variations. 3) A continuum damage mechanics model (CDM) for Haynes ® 282 alloy at 1100°F to 1400°F capturing cyclic behavior with and without hold time. 4) Structural analysis for creep and LCF life predictions of an USC thick-wall Grade 91 superheater steel header and understanding life sensitivity to wall thickness of an AUSC Haynes ® 282 header.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning based approach to predict ductile damage model parameters for polycrystalline metals

Damage models for ductile materials typically need to be parameterized, often with the appropriate parameters changing for a given material depending on the loading conditions. This can make parameterizing these models computationally expensive, since an inverse problem must be solved for each loading condition. Using standard inverse modeling techniques typically requires hundreds or thousands of high-fidelity computer simulations to estimate the optimal parameters. Additionally, the time of a human expert is required to set up the inverse model. Machine learning has recently emerged as an alternative approach to inverse modeling in these settings, where the machine learning model is trained in an offline manner and new parameters can be quickly generated on the fly, after training is complete. Here, this work utilizes such a workflow to enable the rapid parameterization of a ductile damage model called TEPLA with a machine learning inverse model. The machine learning model can efficiently estimate the model parameters much faster, as compared to previously employed methods, such as Bayesian calibration. The results demonstrate good accuracy on a synthetic test dataset and is validated against experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementing Spatio-Temporal 3D-Convolution Neural Networks and UAV Time Series Imagery to Better Predict Lodging Damage in Sorghum

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based remote sensing is gaining momentum in a variety of agricultural and environmental applications. Very-high-resolution remote sensing image sets collected repeatedly throughout a crop growing season are becoming increasingly common. Analytical methods able to learn from both spatial and time dimensions of the data may allow for an improved estimation of crop traits, as well as the effects of genetics and the environment on these traits. Multispectral and geometric time series imagery was collected by UAV on 11 dates, along with ground-truth data, in a field trial of 866 genetically diverse biomass sorghum accessions. We compared the performance of Convolution Neural Network (CNN) architectures that used image data from single dates (two spatial dimensions, 2D) versus multiple dates (two spatial dimensions + temporal dimension, 3D) to estimate lodging detection and severity. Lodging was detected with 3D-CNN analysis of time series imagery with 0.88 accuracy, 0.92 Precision, and 0.83 Recall. This outperformed the best 2D-CNN on a single date with 0.85 accuracy, 0.84 Precision, and 0.76 Recall. The variation in lodging severity was estimated by the best 3D-CNN analysis with 9.4% mean absolute error (MAE), 11.9% root mean square error (RMSE), and goodness-of-fit (R2) of 0.76. This was a significant improvement over the best 2D-CNN analysis with 11.84% MAE, 14.91% RMSE, and 0.63 R2. The success of the improved 3D-CNN analysis approach depended on the inclusion of “before and after” data, i.e., images collected on dates before and after the lodging event. The integration of geometric and spectral features with 3D-CNN architecture was also key to the improved assessment of lodging severity, which is an important and difficult-to-assess phenomenon in bioenergy feedstocks such as biomass sorghum. This demonstrates that spatio-temporal CNN architectures based on UAV time series imagery have significant potential to enhance plant phenotyping capabilities in crop breeding and Precision agriculture applications.

3D-convolution neural networks↗