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Results for “Data and model uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Brenner, Martin J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An efficient method to propagate model uncertainty when inverting seismic data for time domain seismic moment tensors

SUMMARY We present a computationally efficient method to approximately propagate uncertainty when linearly inverting seismic data for point source, time variable moment tensor components. The method is based on the assumption that the data residual, given by the difference between the observed seismic data and the data predicated by a linear inversion, contains the effects of both data and model uncertainty. Our method uses a distribution of data residuals, added directly to the data, in a pseudo-Monte Carlo scheme. Using the assumption that the data residual is a stochastic process, we use the well-known Karhunen–Loève (KL) theorem to construct a distribution of data residuals, where the required basis functions are constructed using Fourier series. The Fourier series are scaled by a product of a random variable and the real-valued spectral amplitudes of the original data residual’s spectrum. Thus, the Fourier series and spectral amplitudes are eigenfunction-eigenvalue pairs used in the KL-based construction of data residual distribution. Using tests with synthetic data, we show that our method compares closely with a Finite Difference Monte Carlo (FDMC) method that we presented previously. More importantly, the method presented here is computationally several orders of magnitude faster than our previous FDMC method, and requires no a priori assumptions of model and/or data uncertainty.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗
NASA NTRS2000

Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties: Model-Data and Model-Model Comparisons

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux and dose measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP. LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir space station. This report gives the details of the model-data comparisons -- summary results in terms of empirical model uncertainty factors that can be applied for spacecraft design applications are given in a companion report. The results of model-model comparisons are also presented from standard AP8 and AE8 model predictions compared with the European Space Agency versions of AP8 and AE8 and with Russian trapped radiation models.

Armstrong, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties: Model-Data and Model-Model Comparisons

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux and dose measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP, LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir Space Station. This report gives the details of the model-data comparisons-summary results in terms of empirical model uncertainty factors that can be applied for spacecraft design applications are given in a combination report. The results of model-model comparisons are also presented from standard AP8 and AE8 model predictions compared with the European Space Agency versions of AP8 and AE8 and with Russian-trapped radiation models.

Armstrong, T. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble simulation data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models trained on ensemble data, we can substitute computationally expensive simulations, which allows users to interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the use of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble data↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation

Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models: Preprint

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models for computationally expensive simulations, users can interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the integration of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble visualization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Atomic Data for Modeling Astrophysical Charge Exchange Plasmas

Relevant uncertainties of theoretical atomic data are vital to determining the accuracy of plasma diagnostics in a number of areas, including, in particular, the astrophysical study. We present a new calculation of the uncertainties on the present theoretical ion-impact charge exchange atomic data and X-ray spectra, based on a set of comparisons with the existing laboratory data obtained in historical merged-beam, cold-target recoil-ion momentum spectroscopy, and electron beam ion traps experiments. The average systematic uncertainties are found to be 35–88% on the total cross sections, and 57–75% on the characteristic line ratios. The model deviation increases as the collision energy decreases. The errors on total cross sections further induce a significant uncertainty to the calculation of ionization balance for low-temperature collisional plasmas. Substantial improvements of the atomic database and dedicated laboratory measurements are needed to obtain the current models, ready for the X-ray spectra from the next X-ray spectroscopic mission.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Virtual Compton scattering measurements in the nucleon resonance region

We report on new measurements of the electric Generalized Polarizability (GP) of the proton \( \alpha_{E}\) in a kinematic region where a puzzling dependence on momentum transfer has been observed, and we have found that \( \alpha_E = (5.3 \pm 0.6_{stat} \pm 1.3_{sys}) 10^{-4}\) fm 3 at \( Q^{2}=0.20\) (GeV/ c ) 2 . The new measurements, when considered along with the rest of the world data, suggest that \( \alpha_E\) can be described by either a local plateau or by an enhancement in the region \( Q^2=0.20\) (GeV/ c ) 2 to 0.33 (GeV/ c ) 2 . The experiment also provides the first measurement of the Coulomb quadrupole amplitude in the \( N \rightarrow \Delta\) transition through the exploration of the \( p(e,e'p)\gamma\) reaction. The new measurement gives \( CMR = (-4.4 \pm 0.8_{stat} \pm 0.6_{sys})\%\) at \( Q^2=0.20\) (GeV/ c ) 2 and is consistent with the results from the pion electroproduction world data. It has been obtained using a completely different extraction method, and therefore represents a strong validation test of the world data model uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System with Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Modeling and Data Package

Groundwater residence times provide fundamental descriptions of hydrologic dynamics and mixing processes in mountainous watersheds. Yet, few observational datasets that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales are available in high elevation mountain systems. Here we present field observations from May 2021 of dissolved noble gases (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe), Chloroflourcarbons (CFCs), Sulfurhexaflouride (SF6), and tritium (3H) sampled from the Pumphouse Lower Montane study site (wells PLM1, PLM6, and PLM7) within the East River Watershed, Colorado. The presented noble gas (PLM_noblegas_2021.csv) and environmental tracer (PLM_tracers_2021.csv) observation datasets, along with the associated modeling scripts, aide in quantifying groundwater residence times and recharge conditions in a high elevation mountain system. Furthermore, the modeling scripts quantify groundwater residence time and noble gas recharge condition uncertainties using a novel Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach. All data modeling scripts are written in the Python code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Uncertainty: Challenges in Visualizing Ensemble Data and Surrogate Models for Decision Systems

Uncertainty visualization plays a critical role in transforming ensemble simulation data into actionable insights by effectively communicating various dimensions of uncertainty within a system. The emergence of artificial intelligence-driven surrogate models trained on multirun ensemble data offers a transformative opportunity to replace computationally intensive simulations with fast estimates, enabling users to explore data spaces with unprecedented depth and interactivity. However, integrating ensemble data and surrogate models into decision-making workflows and tools introduces novel challenges for uncertainty visualization. These include reconciling and clearly communicating the unique uncertainties associated with ensembles and their surrogate model estimates, and leveraging these approximations to inform actionable decisions. This work explores these challenges in the context of high-dimensional data visualization, bridging discrete datasets with their continuous representations and addressing the complexities of systems that support iterative navigation between input and output spaces. We evaluate the role of uncertainty visualization in fostering intuitive, actionable interactions and identify critical hurdles in advancing this frontier of computational simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclide Inventory Benchmark for BWR Spent Nuclear Fuel: Challenges in Evaluation of Modeling Data Assumptions and Uncertainties

This work discusses challenges and approaches to uncertainty analyses associated with the development of a nuclide inventory benchmark for fuel irradiated in a boiling water reactor. The benchmark under consideration is being developed based on experimental data from the SFCOMPO international database. The focus herein is on how to address missing data in fuel design and operating conditions that are important for adequately simulating the time-dependent changes in fuel during irradiation in the reactor. The effects of modeling assumptions and uncertainties in modeling parameters on the calculated nuclide inventory were analyzed and quantified through computational models developed using capabilities in the SCALE code system. Particular attention was given to the impact of the power history and water coolant density on the calculated nuclide inventory, as well as to the effect of geometry modeling considerations not usually addressed in a nuclide inventory benchmark. These considerations include gap closure, channel bow, and channel corner radius, which do not usually apply to regular reactor operation but are relevant for assessing impacts of potential anomalous operating scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗