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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve model-data integrated earth system model predictions of water and carbon cycle extremes

The research proposed here focuses on improving the predictive power of the land component of earth system models (ESMs) using (1) model-data fusion enabled by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), (2) predictive modeling through the combination of ML, AI, and big-data (comprising both model output and observations), and (3) insight of ESM structure and process mechanisms gleaned from complex data using ML and AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Learning-Based Inversion-Free Model-Data Integration to Advance Ecosystem Model Prediction

Ecosystem model prediction is important for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for management support. Model prediction and quantification of predictive uncertainty of ecosystems have long been investigated. The traditional workflow, which calibrates models to match observations and then uses the calibrated models for predictions, relies heavily on inverse modeling to constrain uncertain parameters in complex forward models. This inversion-based prediction approach is infeasible for complex models with heterogeneous parameter uncertainties and incapable of rapid integration of streaming and multiple sources of data because of the difficulty and computational cost in the model inversion, which is typically ill-posed and can require hundreds of thousands of expensive forward simulations to be performed iteratively. We propose to circumvent inverse modeling by precomputing an ensemble of unconstrained forward simulations and then using machine learning (ML) methods to learn the statistical relationship between simulated observation and prediction quantities. Once the ML model has learned the relationship, it can be used to make predictions of future system behavior with uncertainty quantification based on observations. The proposed learningbased inversion-free model prediction (LIMP) framework is computationally efficient which only requires a few thousands of fully parallelizable forward simulations. Additionally, LIMP can continually update predictions based on streaming observations from multiple locations and sources without necessarily requiring extra model simulations. In this study, we apply LIMP to a regional terrestrial ecosystem model with 47 parameters for testing, refining, and evaluating the approach. We demonstrate that LIMP can be used for efficient model prediction, rapid data assimilation, and cost-effective experimental design for improving robust predictive understanding of ecosystems.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-enabled model-data integration for predicting subsurface water storage

Subsurface water storage (SWS) is a key variable of the climate system and a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. It plays a critical role in climate-change projections and can mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. However, because of the difficult accessibility of the underground, hydrologic properties and dynamics of SWS are poorly known. Direct observations of SWS are limited, and accurate incorporation of SWS dynamics into Earth system land models remains challenging. We propose a machine learning-enabled model-data integration framework to improve the SWS prediction at local to conus scales in a changing climate by leveraging all the available observation and simulation resources, as well as to inform the model development and guide the observation collection. The accurate prediction will enable an optimal decision of water management and land use and improve the ecosystem's resilience to the climate change.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques

Abstract. Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data–model integration. Efficient data–model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables is computationally intensive because it involves a large number of expensive ESM simulations. In this effort, we propose an efficient surrogate method capable of using a few ESM runs to build an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system of model outputs over large spatial and temporal domains. We first use singular value decomposition to reduce the output dimensions and then use Bayesian optimization techniques to generate an accurate neural network surrogate model based on limited ESM simulation samples. Our machine-learning-based surrogate methods can build and evaluate a large surrogate system of many variables quickly. Thus, whenever the quantities of interest change, such as a different objective function, a new site, and a longer simulation time, we can simply extract the information of interest from the surrogate system without rebuilding new surrogates, which significantly reduces computational efforts. We apply the proposed method to a regional ecosystem model to approximate the relationship between eight model parameters and 42 660 carbon flux outputs. Results indicate that using only 20 model simulations, we can build an accurate surrogate system of the 42 660 variables, wherein the consistency between the surrogate prediction and actual model simulation is 0.93 and the mean squared error is 0.02. This highly accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system will greatly enhance the computational efficiency of data–model integration to improve predictions and advance our understanding of the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CORAL: A framework for rigorous self-validated data modeling and integrative, reproducible data analysis

Abstract Background Many organizations face challenges in managing and analyzing data, especially when relevant datasets arise from multiple sources and methods. Analyzing heterogeneous datasets and additional derived data requires rigorous tracking of their interrelationships and provenance. This task has long been a Grand Challenge of data science and has more recently been formalized in the FAIR principles: that all data objects be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable, both for machines and for people. Adherence to these principles is necessary for proper stewardship of information, for testing regulatory compliance, for measuring the efficiency of processes, and for facilitating reuse of data-analytical frameworks. Findings We present the Contextual Ontology-based Repository Analysis Library (CORAL), a platform that greatly facilitates adherence to all 4 of the FAIR principles, including the especially difficult challenge of making heterogeneous datasets Interoperable and Reusable across all parts of a large, long-lasting organization. To achieve this, CORAL's data model requires that data generators extensively document the context for all data, and our tools maintain that context throughout the entire analysis pipeline. CORAL also features a web interface for data generators to upload and explore data, as well as a Jupyter notebook interface for data analysts, both backed by a common API. Conclusions CORAL enables organizations to build FAIR data types on the fly as they are needed, avoiding the expense of bespoke data modeling. CORAL provides a uniquely powerful platform to enable integrative cross-dataset analyses, generating deeper insights than are possible using traditional analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data Integration Aggregated Model and Ontology for Nuclear Deployment (DIAMOND): Preliminary Model and Ontology

The data of a nuclear utility or plant are stored in various isolated forms in different systems. These data have different structures and tools and are, therefore, used independently. The integration of data sources is often performed manually and on an as-needed basis to achieve a targeted cost saving. A holistic approach to the integration of the data would enable creating a data warehouse for a single nuclear power plant (NPP) or multiple plants. A data warehouse results in direct and indirect cost saving because it automates the manual search for data, enables sharing and comparison of data from various tools of a single or multiple plants, enable digital transformation of data, increase frequencies of needed data that are sparse in nature (such as failures signatures), reduces the need for training on various tools for plant staff, enables a holistic staff perception of plant activities, reveals cost-saving opportunities, and improves the visual perception of all parts a plant necessary for operations and maintenance. One of the main challenges to deploy a data warehouse is associated with the integration of data sources into a consistent data model using a standard ontology that is developed by and for the nuclear power industry. This model is non-existent and is a necessity to enable the nuclear data warehouse role. A data model contains objects that make up a given domain along with their attributes and relationships. It provides domain standardization and maintainability, setting forth the objects, attributes, and relationships within that domain and acting as the guide by which the various applications within that domain will structure their data and interchange. An ontology is defined as “a set of concepts and categories in a subject area or domain that shows their properties and the relations between them”. Ontologies consist of a taxonomy or directed rooted tree. A survey of the models and ontologies available to support a data integration aggregated model and ontology for nuclear deployment (DIAMOND) was performed and different standards that address specific aspects of the needed model and ontology were leveraged and integrated in this effort. In specific, the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO) and Lifecycle Modeling Language (LML) were leveraged for the base ontology. The ISO 4224 and 15926 were leveraged in the development of the overlapping nuclear and fossil data aspects. The electric power research institute (EPRI) power distribution common information model (CIM) was also reviewed and the experience gained was leveraged in the power generation scope of DIAMOND. The initial aim targeted by this effort was to develop the ontology definitions and model structure. This report documents the resulting model and ontology to develop DIAMOND. The report describes the various elements of the model development based on a growing tree development approach, i.e. DIAMOND’s tree structure is established with the core data aspects and is populated with a preliminary level of details. Fifteen sources of data in a nuclear power plant were considered and incorporated into DIAMOND at this stage of development, representing the majority of operations data sources in nuclear power plants. Additional data sources, scope, and a higher level of fidelity will be incorporated into DIAMOND next in collaboration with the nuclear industry and relevant stakeholders.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data Integration Aggregated Model For Nuclear Deployment

The data of a nuclear utility or plant are stored in various isolated forms in different systems. These data have different structures and tools and are, therefore, used independently. The integration of data sources is often needed and is performed manually and on an as-needed basis. The integration of the data would enable creating a data warehouse for a single nuclear power plant (NPP) or multiple plants. A data model contains objects that make up a given domain along with their attributes and relationships and could be used as a standard for exchange between applications for simple integration and data aggregation. After a survey of existing models, it was determined that a new model was required to meet the scope of this problem. DIAMOND has been developed in the form of an ontology to meet these needs. An ontology is simply a data model that also acts as a taxonomy for the domain, organizing the objects in a hierarchy with the most general objects at the top.

Browning, JerenM↗
DOE OSTI2019

From Data to Models and Analytics: An Integrated Scientific Computing Platform to Accelerate Environmental Research SBIR Phase I (Final Technical Report)

Phase I research was conducted to investigate the technical feasibility of an integrated open source platform GeoLib to provide turnkey solutions for model-data integration for environmental systems science (ESS), using modern web technologies, advances in HPC and cloud computing and high-performance visualization. A key feature of our platform is that it minimizes and automates data movement between data storage and computing systems. Another critical feature of the design is that it enables users to perform high-fidelity post-processing by performing high-performance visualization server-side and in-situ on the compute cluster close to the data. The investigation, which was performed over a 12-month period ending April 2019, centered on developing prototype software to demonstrate the key enabling technologies required for this system. This included: (i) rapid access to data from multiple remote sources, via a unified data interface; (ii) software for scalable geospatial visualization of raster, vector, and point cloud data on the web; (iii) development of an easy-to-use API for creating simulation and modeling workflows; (iv) remote data visualization and processing on middle-tier servers; and (v) remote data processing on high-performance computing systems. A critical part of this work is that all of these capabilities be accessible to end users through standard desktop tools such as Project Jupyter, which is widely adopted for ESS simulation and modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models

This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ranking Biological Features in Soil-Based Microbial Multi-Omics Data with Integration Modeling

Distinguishing the most important features (e.g. proteins, metabolites, etc.) per group (e.g. control and treatment) is a critical challenge in feature-rich multi-omics experiments, especially in soil data. Traditional feature identification and ranking approaches, such as differential expression, are based on single omics and thus not directly translatable to multi-omics experiments. Here, 5 multi-omics integration models (DIABLO, JACA, MOFA, MultiMLP, and SLIDE) that were not explicitly built for soil data applications were tested using a soil-based multi-omics experiment. The data were obtained from an experimental setup of an autoclaved soil system inoculated with 8 bacteria and using chitin as the carbon source and including samples collected at 0- (control), 4-, 8-, and 12-weeks post-inoculation. The omics data included metaproteomics, 16S rRNA sequencing, and LC-MS/MS metabolomics (in positive and negative mode). Each multi-omics integration model was implemented, and top features were compared to differential univariate statistics per omic type, demonstrating that integration approaches cut the potential number of top features from 2957 identified by differential statistics to 13-224 (a 99.6% to 92.4% reduction). Interestingly, most top features across integration models were not shared; though, scaling and averaging ranks across models shared similar patterns. This work highlights the usefulness of multi-omics integration models in soil-based microbial studies and the power of using multiple integration models together to interpret results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗