Individualized Degradation Modeling and Prognostics in a Heterogeneous Group via Incorporating Intrinsic Covariate Information
Not provided.
Automation & Control Systems↗
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Results for “Degradation Modelling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates
Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Battery Degradation Modeling in Hybrid Power Plants: An Island System Unit Commitment Study: Preprint
As hybrid power plants (HPPs), such as photovoltaic (PV) and battery combinations, become increasingly important in power systems with high renewable energy penetration to address PV variability and ensure grid stability. This paper focuses on the urgent need to model the coordination between PV and battery systems in HPPs while accounting for battery degradation. We present a generation scheduling model that explicitly incorporates PV-battery hybridization in the unit commitment problem. Moreover, the cost function of the HPP scheduling problem endogenously considers battery degradation with adjustable weights to strike a balance between minimizing production costs and prolonging battery life, particularly when providing energy arbitrage and ancillary services. Using a realistic island system simulation, we demonstrate that accounting for battery degradation in the scheduling problem can significantly extend battery life with only minor additional production costs.
battery degradation↗
Building Local Models for Flexible Degradation Modeling and Prognostics
Not provided.
Automation & Control Systems↗
Fuel/Basket Degradation Modeling Summary
This report documents the activities in a preliminary phase of development for three models: 1) waste package breach model, 2) fuel/basket degradation model, and 3) dual-purpose canister (DPC) crush model. The waste package breach model describes the coupling of mass flow, heat transport, and canister shell deformation in response to a heat-generating (criticality) event. The fuel/basket degradation model describes potential weakening and disaggregation of the DPC structure from corrosion, possibly accelerated by seismic ground motion. Progressively degraded three-dimensional (3D) configurations of the fuel, basket, and shell are generated for future analysis of reactivity (with as-loaded DPC fuel characteristics). Another important application for the fuel/basket degradation model is validation of the two stylized degradation cases currently being used by other investigators for analysis of the as-loaded DPC inventory under disposal conditions. The DPC crush model investigates stability of a typical DPC after breach of the disposal overpack allows fluids from the repository near-field environment to penetrate and externally pressurize the canister shell. Preliminary results show that large deformation of the DPC could occur for external pressure on the order of 10 to 15 MPa, or the shell could be stable (not collapse) with pressure of 20 MPa or greater if the basket plates are fully welded at the connections.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
PV Degradation Modeling: Applying Geospatial Workflows with "PVDeg"
Accurate degradation modeling is essential for predicting photovoltaic (PV) module performance, estimating longevity and informing design decisions. With degradation rates varying significantly by location, geospatial analysis is critical for PV and broader applications, such as agrivoltaics, weathering and environmental data analysis. This work presents PVDeg, an open-source tool designed for geospatial degradation analysis. PVDeg integrates meteorological data from global sources, including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), with degradation models. The toolkit enables users to customize geospatial workflows by integrating weather data, material parameters, and user-defined Python functions. It facilitates accelerated downloads of NSRDB and PVGIS datasets and optimizes geospatial point selection to preserve data density in regions of interest. Additionally, PVDeg provides a local database for storage and spatial queries, supporting large-scale analyses without the need for high-performance computing (HPC) resources. PVDeg provides a foundational workflow that extends its utility beyond PV applications, enabling researchers to analyze geospatial processes across discipline.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion
In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells
Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Microstructure-Based Degradation Modeling in Solid Oxide Cells
The presentation is intended for a graduate class in Georgia Southern University taught by Dr. Hayri Sezer on electrochemistry, SOFC and Li ion battery. It summaries NETL's recent works on microstructure-based modeling of degradation in solid oxide cells. It covers the degradation mechanism of Ni coarsening, Ni migration and the build-up of oxygen partial pressure inside the electrolyte. The phase-field models developed for Ni coarsening and migration are reviewed and the results are compared to experiments in literature to examine different diffusion mechanisms (Ni self-diffusion, Ni(OH)2 diffusion in pores and Ni(OH) surface diffusion) and driving forces (Ni(OH)x concentration and Ni-YSZ contact angle change). It also demonstrates the developed model for oxygen partial pressure and shows that the predicted oxygen partial pressure can explain the Ni oxidation in the hydrogen electrode and crack growth on the electrolyte-oxygen electrode interface under certain operating conditions.
nickel coarsening↗
Conservation of model degraded pine wood with selected organosilicons studied by XFM and nanoindentation
Previous research found that some organosilicon treatments proved effective in stabilizing waterlogged wood dimensions during drying. The present research aimed to determine the mechanism of wood stabilization by these chemicals to understand their mode of action. Here, the study used chemically (ChP) and biologically degraded (BP) model Scots pine wood treated with Methyltrimethoxysilane (MTMS), (3-Mercaptopropyl) trimethoxysilane (MPTMS), or 1,3-Bis(diethylamino)-3-propoxypropanol)-1,1,3,3-tetramethyldisiloxane (DEAPTMDS). Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) was used to investigate the penetration of organosilicons into the wood cellular structure and cell walls, and nanoindentation was used to study the mechanical properties of the treated wood cell walls. All treatments resulted in high volumetric anti-shrink efficiency (ASE V ) values of 74-82%, except for MTMS-treated ChP with an ASE V of 52%. The multiscale XFM results revealed that all applied organosilicons penetrated throughout the whole wooden blocks and deposited in both cell lumina and cell walls. The retention of all applied organosilicons was highest in BP wood, and so was the dimensional stabilization effect. MTMS-treated ChP had the lowest measured cell wall infiltration, which likely contributed to its lower ASE v . DEAPTMDS treatments plasticized the cell walls and resulted in lowered nanoindentation elastic modulus (E s NI ) and hardness (H) for all types of wood. MTMS and MPTMS had modest effects on cell wall mechanical properties, and the effect depended on the type of wood. The final effect of organosilicon treatment on the dimensional wood stabilization and mechanical properties of wood cell walls depended not only on the type of the applied organosilicon but also the type of wood degradation. This means that the treatment cannot be considered universal, and specific approaches are needed for the conservation of individual wooden objects. Although some mechanisms are now better understood, such as the need for organosilicons to infiltrate the cell walls and the plasticizing effect of DEAPTMDS, other aspects will benefit from a more detailed analysis of the molecular interactions between organosilicons and wood polymers.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The Economic Impact of Battery Degradation Modelling Uncertainty
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are used for a variety of applications, with their economic benefit often being the decisive factor for deployment. A multitude of physico-chemical aging mechanisms lead to capacity fade over a BESS life cycle. The models that are used to describe this capacity fade are prone to inherent model errors. Through a holistic techno-economic modelling approach, we investigate the impact of battery degradation modelling uncertainty on the economic benefit of representative BESS applications. Here, it is shown how improved parameter fit quality can reduce the resulting economic uncertainty. Furthermore, we highlight that the consideration of degradation modelling uncertainty is especially crucial when: (i) the cash flow highly depends on the available battery capacity, (ii) a fixed, e.g. warranty mandated, state of health limit acts as the threshold for battery end-of-life, (iii) long evaluation periods and low discount rates are the focus of economic evaluation.
aging↗
A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems
Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.
Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗
Metallic fuel cladding degradation model development and evaluation for BISON
Fuel cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) and coolant cladding chemical interaction (CCCI), both consume stainless-steel cladding in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and effectively degrade cladding mechanical performance through thickness reduction. Therefore, FCCI/CCCI and corresponding cladding degradation models are essential for advanced fuel performance codes, such as BISON, to reliably predict cladding behavior in SFRs. Here, we report the development and implementation efforts for BISON's FCCI/CCCI correlations and cladding degradation models based on U.S. legacy metallic fuel data. The models were evaluated using Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program X447/A experiment data supported by the ongoing integration project enabling coordinated application of BISON and EBR-II fuel irradiation and physics database (FIPD). Furthermore, the implemented models were demonstrated to improve BISON's capabilities of predicting cladding damage and degradation behavior that is more consistent with post-irradiation examination observations. Additionally, some limitations of current BISON modules are identified, which are to be overcome through the BISON-FIPD integration efforts.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
FY24: LEMMs: Long-term, Electrochemical Materials degradation Models
FY24 progress for LEMMs: Long-term, Electrochemical Materials degradation Models LDRD project are presented. Significant progress toward creating validated corrosion models was made in this FY paving success in future FY’s for success with battery model development and validation. Specifically, models for various forms of corrosion were probed for sensitivities showing a significant influence of reactive transport parameters for hydroxide species on the run time of the models. Further, cryo-genic time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectroscopy was utilized to map ions in a frozen corrosion droplet showing the precipitates/precipitate species near corroding locations. Additionally, a realistic corrosion droplet was created that accounted for evaporation and condensation coupled with corrosion. This pushes the boundary of corrosion modeling and will be validated in future FY’s.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
A control oriented comprehensive degradation model for battery energy storage system life prediction
In order to ensure that stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) provide reliable energy buffering, both for power quality and economic purposes, the degradation must be considered. Cell degradation involves various side reactions and is highly dependent on its operating conditions. To accurately track cell degradation and predict its impact on battery behavior, a comprehensive physics-based degradation model based on an electrolyte phase-enhanced single particle (SP) model is developed. Key degradation physics, namely solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation and growth, Li plating on the graphite anode, and Mn dissolution on cathode of nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NMC622) are considered. The model is validated against experimental capacity data. The results reveal that the deposition rate of both SEI layer and Li metal increase as the charge voltage increases. At the cathode side, the solvent oxidation rate determines the Mn dissolution rate. As a result, the volume fraction of NMC622 in the cathode continually decreases at a gradually increasing rate.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Reinforcement learning for adaptive maintenance policy optimization under imperfect knowledge of the system degradation model and partial observability of system states
Maintenance policy optimization usually is faced with challenges that arise from an imperfect knowledge of system degradation models and from the partial observability of system degradation states. Here, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning method to address these two challenges for a class of maintenance problems with Markov degradation processes. The reinforcement learning approach consists of a learning component and a planning component. Using sequentially collected observations, at each step of decision-making the learning component improves the knowledge of system degradation in terms of the probability distributions of the transition rates based on sequential Bayesian inference. Using the updated transition rates, at each step of decision-making the maintenance policy optimization problem is then formulated as a partially observable Markov decision problem, and the planning component computes the optimal maintenance policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward. The proposed method is illustrated using a numerical example with repair and inspection maintenance actions. The result shows that as more observations are collected, the learning component progressively learns the true system degradation process, and the planning component adjusts the optimal maintenance policy accordingly as well, which leads to increased reward.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Degradation Modeling of SOEC Systems
This presentation was delivered at the 2023 AICHE Annual Meeting. This presentation focuses on dynamic modeling of physical degradation of solid oxide cell systems and failure analysis.
Le, Quang↗
A machine learning degradation model for electrochemical capacitors operated at high temperature
Electrochemical capacitors (ECs) have only recently been considered as an alternative power source for telemetry sensors of drilling equipment for geothermal or oil and gas exploration. The lifecycle analysis and modelling of ECs is underrepresented in literature in comparison to other storage devices e.g. Li-ion batteries. This paper investigates the degradation of ECs when cycled outside the manufacturer-specified operating temperature envelope and proposes a machine learning-based approach for modelling the degradation. Experimental results show that end of life, defined as a 30% decrease in capacitance, occurs at 1,000 cycles when the environmental temperature exceeds the maximum operating temperature by 30%. The life-cycle test data is then used as an input to a Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithm to predict the capacitance fade trend. The GPR is validated on a total of nine commercial cells from two different manufacturers, achieving an average root mean squared percent error of less than 2% and a mean calibration score of 93% when referenced to a 95% confidence interval. The model can be utilized to determine the EC degradation rate at a range of operating temperature values.
42 ENGINEERING↗