Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Delphi”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Development of the Delphi display concept for alternative explanations decision making support - 120

Human operators of advanced technology systems, such as nuclear power, command and control, and deepwater oil drilling, must be able to evaluate and respond to a wide array of operational anomalies. Unfortunately, these circumstances are often complex and ambiguous, complicating decision making tasks. One common decision making error, called confirmation bias, occurs when decision makers prematurely focus on one explanation instead of systematically considering all plausible alternative explanations that could equally well account for an operational anomaly (Nickerson, 1998). The Delphi display is designed to counteract decision makers' tendencies towards confirmation bias and to encourage them to consider all plausible explanations, including high risk explanations, they might otherwise overlook. An initial Delphi display prototype was designed to help identify the underlying cause of operational anomalies in the complex, high-consequence technology of deepwater drilling. This prototype decision aid incorporates major indicators related to operational anomalies and presents corresponding plausible explanations for each indicator, ranging from high-risk system-critical explanations to lower-risk but still significant events. The Delphi display incorporates several innovative features to help decision makers detect and monitor operational anomalies and view the relationships among indicators and their associated plausible explanations. Preliminary evaluations of an early prototype Delphi display for detecting kicks in deepwater oil drilling operations have been promising. Moreover, the methodology used to design and develop the Delphi display can be readily generalized to numerous other operational contexts that require humans to make system-critical decisions. To illustrate, an initial Delphi display design for nuclear power plant control is described. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

A True Delphi Approach: Developing a Tailored Curriculum in Response to Local Agriscience Need

The Delphi approach is a structured communication technique, developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. In this specific case experts from Industry, Education and Extension fields addressed needs for educational programs in a traditional agriculturally-based community, environmentally conscious practices in order to restore environmental integrity and multi-disciplinary approach to solve sustainability problems facing the agricultural industry. The experts were divided into two main groups, (A) Secondary and (B) Post-secondary, and answered questionnaires in three rounds: • 1st Round – Participants generated a list of knowledge, skills, and competencies followed • 2nd Round – Panelists rated each item • 3rd Round – Panelists were given the opportunity to combine and add additional items As a result, top six items from both groups were not found similar, secondary panelists centralized around employment skills and post-secondary panelists focused on content areas. Implications include a need for content-based curriculum for post-secondary graduates, utilization of true-Delphi technique for future curriculum development research and further examination of students that complete secondary and post-secondary programs in biofuels/sustainable agriculture.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Study plan to identify long term national telecommunications need and priorities applying Delphi techniques (handbook)

A handbook that explains the basic Delphi methodology and discusses modified Delphi techniques is presented. The selection of communications experts to participate in a study, the construction of questionnaires on potential communications developments, and requisite technology is treated. No two modified Delphi studies were the same, which reflects the flexibility and adaptability of the technique. Each study must be specifically tailored to a particular case, and consists of seeking a consensus of opinion among experts about a particular subject and attendant conditions that may prevail in the future.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2011

The U. S. transportation sector in the year 2030: results of a two-part Delphi survey.

A two-part Delphi Survey was given to transportation experts attending the Asilomar Conference on Transportation and Energy in August, 2011. The survey asked respondents about trends in the US transportation sector in 2030. Topics included: alternative vehicles, high speed rail construction, rail freight transportation, average vehicle miles traveled, truck versus passenger car shares, vehicle fuel economy, and biofuels in different modes. The survey consisted of two rounds -- both asked the same set of seven questions. In the first round, respondents were given a short introductory paragraph about the topic and asked to use their own judgment in their responses. In the second round, the respondents were asked the same questions, but were also given results from the first round as guidance. The survey was sponsored by Argonne National Lab (ANL), the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and implemented by University of California at Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies. The survey was part of the larger Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project run by the Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Of the 206 invitation letters sent, 94 answered all questions in the first round (105 answered at least one question), and 23 of those answered all questions in the second round. 10 of the 23 second round responses were at a discussion section at Asilomar, while the remaining were online. Means and standard deviations of responses from Round One and Two are given in Table 1 below. One main purpose of Delphi surveys is to reduce the variance in opinions through successive rounds of questioning. As shown in Table 1, the standard deviations of 25 of the 30 individual sub-questions decreased between Round One and Round Two, but the decrease was slight in most cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2012

Neutron noise measurements at the Delphi subcritical assembly

The paper presents the results and evaluations of a comprehensive set of neutron noise measurements on the Delphi subcritical assembly of the Delft Univ. of Technology. The measurements investigated the effect of different source distributions (inherent spontaneous fission and {sup 252}Cf) and the position of the detectors applied (both radially and vertically). The evaluation of the measured data has been performed by the variance-to-mean ratio (VTMR, Feynman-{alpha}), the autocorrelation (ACF, Rossi-{alpha}) and the cross-correlation (CCF) methods. The values obtained for the prompt decay constant show a strong bias, which depends both on the detector position and on the source distribution. This is due to the presence of higher modes in the system. It has been observed that the {alpha} value fitted is higher when the detector is close to the boundary of the core or to the {sup 252}Cf point-source. The higher alpha-modes have also been observed by fitting functions describing two alpha-modes. The successful set of measurement also provides a good basis for further theoretical investigations including the Monte Carlo simulation of the noise measurements and the calculation of the alpha-modes in the Delphi subcritical assembly. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensuring that ecological science contributes to natural resource management using a Delphi-derived approach

This chapter approaches participatory modeling in environmental decision making from an atypical perspective. It broadly addresses the question of how to assure that science conducted to assist practitioners improves resource management. More specifically, it describes a case involving environmental science and natural resource management at Fort Benning, a U.S. Army installation in the southeastern United States where disparate environmental research projects were funded by a single federal agency to enhance the ability of Fort Benning resource managers to achieve their resource management goals. The role of our effort was to integrate the scientific studies in a manner that would be meaningful and useful for resource managers. Hence we assembled a team consisting of an anthropologist, ecologist, microbiologist, statistician, and geographic information systems specialist who developed a common framework that served as the basis for this integration. The team first used a Delphi expert elicitation, which evolved into an approach more akin to facilitated negotiation. This second approach arose organically, particularly when our team took advantage of an opportunity for face-to-face interaction. Although the shift in our approach was unplanned, it proved to be highly productive. We discuss the potential utility of our approach for other situations and suggest that it would be useful to initiate at the beginning of research where the aim is to produce scientific results that meet practitioners needs, specifically in the realm of environmental science and resource management.

Delphi approach↗
DOE OSTI2012

A combined ANP-delphi approach to evaluate sustainable tourism

The evaluation of sustainable tourism strategies promoted by National Parks (NP) related stakeholders is a key concern for NP managers. To help them in their strategic evaluation procedures, in this paper we propose a methodology based on the Analytic Network Process and a Delphi-type judgment-ensuring procedure. The approach aims at involving stakeholders in a participatory and consensus-building process. The methodology was applied to Los Roques NP in Venezuela. The problem included three sustainable tourism strategies defined by the stakeholders: eco-efficient resorts, eco-friendly leisure activities and ecological transportation systems. Representatives of eight stakeholders participated in the methodology. 13 sustainability criteria were selected. Results provide some important insights into the overall philosophy and underlying participants' conception of what sustainable development of Los Roques NP means. This conception is broadly shared by stakeholders as they coincided in the weights of most of the criteria, which were assigned individually through the questionnaire. It is particularly noteworthy that tourists and environmentalists almost fully match in their assessments of criteria but not of the alternatives. Moreover, there is a great agreement in the final assessment. This suggests that the regular contact among the different stakeholders, i.e. tourists with inhabitants, authorities with environmentalists, tour operators with representatives of the ministry, etc. has led to a common understanding of the opportunities and threats for the NP. They all agreed that the procedure enhances participation and transparency and it is a necessary source of information and support for their decisions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends the implementation of a novel Earth Observing mission to study Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. The assessment of the candidate architectures under consideration requires the use of Expert Judgment Elicitation. Some of the assessment scores are obtained through consensus among the Science Leadership Team. A modified Delphi method was developed to accelerate the consensus building process and reduce the number of cycles required to converge. This paper discusses which elements of the traditional method were modified, how the method was applied, and the impact of the modifications on generating consensus.

Expert Judgement↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends the implementation of a novel Earth Observing mission to study Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. The assessment of the candidate architectures under consideration requires the use of Expert Judgment Elicitation. Some of the assessment scores are obtained through consensus among the Science Leadership Team. A modified Delphi method was developed to accelerate the consensus building process and reduce the number of cycles required to converge. This paper discusses which elements of the traditional method were modified, how the method was applied, and the impact of the modifications on generating consensus.

Expert Judgment↗
DOE OSTI2019

Best treatment options for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients: a Delphi consensus study

The introduction of targeted therapy for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has improved the outcome of these patients in the last decade. However, many patients still relapse. The aim of this consensus study was to establish common recommendations about the best treatment options in patients with RCC. A two-round Delphi methodology was used. A total of 25 statements were submitted to a panel of 30 specialists. If consensus was not obtained in the first round a second and last round was performed. Agreement was achieved for 19 of the proposed 25 statements (76%). When making a decision about the treatment option, considering the efficiency and response rate to previous treatment, drug’s toxicity and the patients’ clinical features are very relevant.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Determining an Imaging Literacy Curriculum for Radiation Oncologists: An International Delphi Study

Purpose: Rapid evolution of imaging technologies and their integration into radiation therapy practice demands that radiation oncology (RO) training curricula be updated. The purpose of this study was to develop an entry-to-practice image literacy competency profile. Methods and Materials: A list of 263 potential imaging competency items were assembled from international objectives of training. Expert panel eliminated redundant or irrelevant items to create a list of 97 unique potential competency items. An international 2-round Delphi process was conducted with experts in RO. In round 1, all experts scored, on a 9-point Likert scale, the degree to which they agreed an item should be included in the competency profile. Items with a mean score ≥7 were included, those 4 to 6 were reviewed in round 2, and items scored <4 were excluded. In round 2, items were discussed and subsequently ranked for inclusion or exclusion in the competency profile. Items with >75% voting for inclusion were included in the final competency profile. Results: Forty-nine radiation oncologists were invited to participate in round 1, and 32 (65%) did so. Participants represented 24 centers in 6 countries. Of the 97 items ranked in round 1, 80 had a mean score ≥7, 1 item had a score <4, and 16 items with a mean score of 4 to 6 were reviewed and rescored in round 2. In round 2, 4 items had >75% of participants voting for inclusion and were included; the remaining 12 were excluded. The final list of 84 items formed the final competency profile. The 84 enabling competency items were aggregated into the following 4 thematic groups of key competencies: (1) imaging fundamentals (42 items); (2) clinical application (27 items); (3) clinical management (5 items); and (4) professional practice (10 items). Conclusions: We present an imaging literacy competency profile which could constitute the minimum training standards in radiation oncology residency programs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Development of a Quality and Safety Competency Curriculum for Radiation Oncology Residency: An International Delphi Study

Purpose: To develop an entry-to-practice quality and safety competency profile for radiation oncology residency. Methods and Materials: A comprehensive list of potential quality and safety competency items was generated from public and professional resources and interprofessional focus groups. Redundant or out-of-scope items were eliminated through investigator consensus. Remaining items were subjected to an international 2-round modified Delphi process involving experts in radiation oncology, radiation therapy, and medical physics. During Round 1, each item was scored independently on a 9-point Likert scale indicating appropriateness for inclusion in the competency profile. Items indistinctly ranked for inclusion or exclusion were re-evaluated through web conference discussion and reranked in Round 2. Results: An initial 1211 items were compiled from 32 international sources and distilled to 105 unique potential quality and safety competency items. Fifteen of the 50 invited experts participated in round 1: 10 radiation oncologists, 4 radiation therapists, and 1 medical physicist from 13 centers in 5 countries. Round 1 rankings resulted in 80 items included, 1 item excluded, and 24 items indeterminate. Two areas emerged more prominently within the latter group: change management and human factors. Web conference with 5 participants resulted in 9 of these 24 items edited for content or clarity. In Round 2, 12 participants rescored all indeterminate items resulting in 10 items ranked for inclusion. The final 90 enabling competency items were organized into thematic groups consisting of 18 key competencies under headings adapted from Deming's System of Profound Knowledge. Conclusions: This quality and safety competency profile may inform minimum training standards for radiation oncology residency programs.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2017

X-Ray Studies of Delphi Diesel Injection Systems

This CRADA explored the performance of two different models of Delphi diesel injectors. For each injector, the valve needle motion was imaged from two lines of sight at three different injection pressures to characterize its 3D motion. The needle lift was quite repeatable, and followed the expected trend of faster lift with higher injection pressure. In addition, it was observed that the maximum lift increased with injection pressure, even after the valve reached its mechanical limit, indicating that the increased fuel pressure was causing compression or bending of the needle. The off-axis motion of the needle was found to be significant in both measurement planes, though it was very repeatable from one injection event to the next. The effect of ambient pressure on the needle motion was explored at an injection pressure of 400 bar, with ambient pressure up to 15 bar. No effect of the elevated ambient pressure on the needle lift was observed. High-speed x-ray imaging of the spray as it first emerges from the injector nozzle was performed in order to characterize the near-nozzle morphology and breakup of the spray. While imaging was successful at low ambient pressure, the contrast of the images was reduced at high ambient pressures, and quantitative measurements of the morphology were precluded. The near-nozzle fuel distributions were measured using time-resolved x-ray radiography for three injection pressures at an ambient pressure of 33 bar. Increasing injection pressure caused the fuel distribution to narrow, as measured by the Full Width at Half Maximum of the mass distributions. The fuel distributions were quantified for the two injectors at each measurement condition, quantifying the impact that each experimental parameter has on the near-nozzle fuel and air mixture preparation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1973

A Delphi forecast of technology in education

The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

Robinson, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Results of phase one of land use information Delphi study

The Land Use Management Information System (LUMIS) is being developed for the city portion of the Santa Monica mountains. LUMIS incorporates data developed from maps and aerial photos as well as traditional land based data associated with routine city and county record keeping activities and traditional census data. To achieve the merging of natural resource data with governmental data LUMIS is being designed in accordance with restrictions associated with two other land use information systems currently being constructed by Los Angeles city staff. The two city systems are LUPAMS (Land Use Planning and Management System) which is based on data recorded by the County Assessor's office for each individual parcel of land in the city, and Geo-BEDS, a geographically based environmental data system.

Paul, C. K.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Expanding Robust HCCI Operation with Advanced Valve and Fuel Control Technologies

Delphi Automotive Systems and ORNL established this CRADA to advance the commercialization potential of the homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) advanced combustion strategy for gasoline engine platforms. HCCI combustion has been shown by others to produce high diesel-like efficiency on a gasoline engine platform while simultaneously producing low NOX and particulate matter emissions. However, the commercialization barriers that face HCCI combustion are significant, with requirements for a more active engine control system, likely with next-cycle closed-loop feedback control, and with advanced valve train technologies to enable negative valve overlap conditions. In the partnership between Delphi and ORNL, each organization brought a unique and complementary set of skills to the project. Delphi has made a number of breakthroughs with production-intent valve train technologies and controls in recent years to make a part time production-intent HCCI engine plausible. ORNL has extensive knowledge and expertise with HCCI combustion, and also has a versatile research engine with hydraulic valve actuation (HVA) that is useful for guiding production of a cam-based HCCI system. Partnering these knowledge bases and capabilities was essential towards making progress to better understand HCCI combustion and the commercialization barriers that it faces. ORNL and Delphi maintained strong collaboration throughout the project. Meetings were held regularly, with additional reports, presentations, and meetings as necessary to maintain progress. Delphi provided guidance to ORNL regarding operational strategies to investigate on their single-cylinder research engine with HVA and data from their experimental multi-cylinder engine for modeling. ORNL provided single-cylinder engine data and modeling results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ultra Efficient Light Duty Powertrain with Gasoline Low Temperature Combustion (Final Report)

This document details the work completed during Project DE-EE0006839 ‘Ultra Efficient Light Duty Powertrain with Gasoline Low Temperature Combustion’. All tasks from the project’s Statement of Project Objectives are discussed. Final demonstration data is also presented and discussed. Further project details can be found in the Quarterly Technicial Reports that were submitted during the course of the project and are stored on the EERE Project Management Center Website. The goal of this project was to develop, implement and demonstrate a low temperature combustion approach called Gasoline Direct Injection Compression Ignition (GDCI) that provides high thermal efficiency with low NOx and PM emissions. The project target was to demonstrate a 35% fuel economy improvement over the baseline vehicle while meeting Tier 3 emissions levels. At the start of this project, GDCI was a moderately mature combustion technology, due in large part to advances made during a Delphi Technologies program funded through an earlier Department of Energy Advanced Technology Powertrains (ATP) opportunity; under that earlier contract, DE-EE0003258, Delphi Technologies assembled a team with complementary industrial and academic experience, and led this team to advance the technology from the original fundamental work to the state of art embodied by a first-generation (Gen 1) multi-cylinder GDCI engine. Key activities during that project centered on engine and combustion chamber design, and development of fuel injection equipment, valvetrain and advanced controls. Performance results with the Gen 1 engine in a development vehicle demonstrated that GDCI had the capability to operate using Low Temperature Combustion (LTC) over a broad speed-load range. Based on benchmarking work, efficiency for the Gen 1 GDCI engine compared favorably overall to production light-duty diesel engines. The second DOE funded project, DE-EE0006839, focused on a number of technical risks and issues that were left to be resolved for GDCI to become a production-viable technology. These risks were:GDCI combustion system refinement to achieve near-ideal air/fuel mixture preparation for high efficiency and low HC and CO emissions; Transient control development for low temperature combustion with high EGR levels during real-world transient driving maneuvers and over a broader range of ambient conditions; Aftertreatment system design that is effective in dealing with the low-temperature challenges of a highly efficient engine. The project was executed in two phases. Phase 1 leveraged the development vehicle from the Advanced Technologies Powertrain 1 (ATP1) project, DE-EE0003258. That vehicle was used as an initial test bed in the development of a high performance low temperature exhaust aftertreatment system. The vehicle was also used to develop calibration refinements for improved exhaust emissions and fuel efficiency. Samples of a new GDCI development level engine, called Gen2 GDCI (and developed outside of the first DOE funded project), were also used during Phase 1 to develop refined controller hardware and control algorithms, as well as improved sensors and actuators. The Gen2 engine was then retrofitted into the development vehicle from the ATP1 project and used for controls refinement and calibration of GDCI to achieve improved cold start, drivability and robustness to real world environments and fuel variations. During Phase 2 of the project, Gen3 versions of the GDCI engine were designed and built specifically for this project based on experience from the earlier engines. These engines were designed to be production-like in construction and, when combined with refined control systems and project specific low temperature exhaust aftertreatment, were intended to support the goal of meeting Tier 3 emissions levels at a vehicle level. Though great progress had been made advancing the GDCI combustion process, and despite extensive presentations of our work on the technology at various conferences and in direct meetings with automotive companies, none of the US domestic automotive OEMs had shown an interest in adopting this combustion process as part of their technology planning as the project approached the Go/No-Go point at the end of Budget Period 3. As a result of this low-level of interest both the US Department of Energy and Delphi Technologies received in this technology from domestic auto manufactures, Delphi Technologies elected a ‘No-Go’ status for the gate between Budget Period 3 and Budget Period 4 which terminated the project without spending any Budget Period 4 funds. The project team concluded that the dynamometer mapping of the most recent level of hardware, combined with the vehicle level simulation by Argonne National Laboratory, was sufficient to document the capabilities and potential of the combustion process without spending the time and money to do the controls development and full calibration necessary for a demonstration vehicle.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗