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Results for “Deterministic approach”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring effective electrostatic interaction of charge-stabilized colloids from scattering using deep learning

In this article, an innovative strategy is presented that incorporates deep auto-encoder networks into a least-squares fitting framework to address the potential inversion problem in small-angle scattering. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, a detailed case study focusing on charged colloidal suspensions was carried out. The results clearly indicate that a deep learning solution offers a reliable and quantitative method for studying molecular interactions. The approach surpasses existing deterministic approaches with respect to both numerical accuracy and computational efficiency. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of deep learning techniques in tackling complex problems in soft-matter structures and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Deterministic Annealing Approach to Clustering AIRS Data

We will examine the validity of means and standard deviations as a basis for climate data products. We will explore the conditions under which these two simple statistics are inadequate summaries of the underlying empirical probability distributions by contrasting them with a nonparametric, method called Deterministic Annealing technique

clustering↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of dose estimates using the buildup-factor method and a Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with Monte Carlo results

Continuing efforts toward validating the buildup factor method and the BRYNTRN code, which use the deterministic approach in solving radiation transport problems and are the candidate engineering tools in space radiation shielding analyses, are presented. A simplified theory of proton buildup factors assuming no neutron coupling is derived to verify a previously chosen form for parameterizing the dose conversion factor that includes the secondary particle buildup effect. Estimates of dose in tissue made by the two deterministic approaches and the Monte Carlo method are intercompared for cases with various thicknesses of shields and various types of proton spectra. The results are found to be in reasonable agreement but with some overestimation by the buildup factor method when the effect of neutron production in the shield is significant. Future improvement to include neutron coupling in the buildup factor theory is suggested to alleviate this shortcoming. Impressive agreement for individual components of doses, such as those from the secondaries and heavy particle recoils, are obtained between BRYNTRN and Monte Carlo results.

Shinn, Judy L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Toward the modeling of land use change: A spatial analysis using remote sensing and historical data

It was hypothesized that the chronological observation of land use change could be shown to follow a predictable pattern and these patterns could be correlated with other statistical data to develop transition probabilities suitable for modeling purposes. A literature review and preliminary research, however, indicated a totally stochastic approach was not practical for simulating land use change and thus a more deterministic approach was adopted. The approach used assumes the determinants of the land use conversion process are found in the market place, where land transactions among buyers and sellers occur. Only one side of the market transaction process is studied, however, namely, the purchaser's desires in securing an ideal or suitable site. The problem was to identify the ideal qualities, quantities or attributes desired in an industrial site (or housing development), and to formulate a general algorithmic statement capable of identifying potential development sites. Research procedures involved developing a list of variables previously noted in the literature to be related to site selection and streamlining the list to a set suitable for statistical testing. A sample of 157 industries which have located (or relocated) in the 16-county Knoxville metropolitan region since 1950 was selected for industrial location analysis. Using NASA color infrared photography and Tennessee Valley Authority historical aerial photography, data were collected on the spatial characteristics of each industrial location event. These data were then subjected to factor analysis to determine the interrelations of variables.

Honea, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Implicitly Coordinated Detect and Avoid Capability for Safe Autonomous Operation of Small UAS

As the airspace becomes increasingly shared by autonomous small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), there would be a pressing need for coordination strategies so that aircraft can safely and independently maneuver around obstacles, geofences, and traffic aircraft. Explicitly coordinating resolution strategies for small UAS would require additional components such as a reliable vehicle-to-vehicle communication infrastructure and standardized protocols for information exchange that could significantly increase the cost of deploying small UAS in a shared airspace. This paper explores a novel approach that enables multiple aircraft to implicitly coordinate their resolution maneuvers. By requiring all aircraft to execute the proposed approach deterministically, it is possible for all of them to implicitly agree on the region of airspace each will be occupying in a given time interval. The proposed approach lends itself to the construction of a suitable feedback mechanism that enables the real-time execution of an implicitly conflict-free path in a closed-loop manner dealing with uncertainties in aircraft speed. If a network infrastructure is available, the proposed approach can also exploit the benefits of explicit information.

Balachandran, Swee↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Large‐Scale Systematic Missing Pipe Attributes in Water Distribution Networks

Water distribution network (WDN) models are an essential tool used by water utilities for hydraulic analysis. Unfortunately, missing data and insufficient resources often make creating and maintaining these models unfeasible. Existing methods to address missing pipe properties, like sequential imputation for missing values and reconstruction using graph metrics, are designed to accommodate random patterns of missing information and require a significant percentage of the system's attributes to be known. However, these data completeness assumptions do not always align with real‐world scenarios where large sections of the WDN model have missing data. To address this challenge, this study proposes a data‐driven approach for estimating pipe diameter when considering different spatial patterns and degrees of data completeness (i.e., 0%–90%). Using data from 16 WDNs in Kentucky, this study compares the use of machine learning (ML) using topological and geospatial features against an existing deterministic approach. Results demonstrate that WDN models with pipe diameters predicted by the proposed ML method had comparable hydraulic performance to the ground truth models. Moreover, results showed that ML method performance varies between WDNs of differing topological classification. Insights from this study help advance the ability to leverage partial data to create and maintain WDN models amid uncertainty and inadequate resources.

Poff, Jason W. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Commissioning of Large Machine Tools Using Finite Element-Based Correction of Geometric Errors

Large computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools derive their stiffness from monolithic cast iron bases or weldments that are sometimes integral to machine motion systems like box ways or guideways. However, the sheer size of castings and even floor flatness deviations result in dimensional errors in these systems, which manifest as machine motion errors. Typical geometric alignment processes rely on an iterative approach, where measurements are taken to assess alignment (straightness, squareness, and parallelism), followed by adjustment of the machine supports (fixators or leveling pads), which can take weeks even for an experienced operator. Conversely, a novel method is proposed to shorten the correction time by eliminating the trial-and-error process in favor of a more deterministic approach guided by a finite element (FE) method. A feasibility study is conducted on a CNC polymer hybrid machine, with a steel weldment frame, supported by six leveling pads. An FE model of the frame is utilized to obtain recommended leveling pad adjustments, based on measurement of machine errors taken using a laser tracker. After a single adjustment cycle, measurements reveal that geometric errors of the machine tool are reduced from 2.22 mm of flatness deviation to 0.32 mm, achieving an 85.6% reduction. Furthermore, the entire process including measurement, adjustment, and assessment is completed in just 6 h by two operators who are not professional service engineers. In conclusion, this methodology demonstrates feasibility for scaling up, especially to large, high-precision CNC machine tools with bases mounted by fixators, offering the capability for bidirectional adjustment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFS) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Models, Biological↗
DOE OSTI2025

An automated integrated web-based smart tool for open stope design

The Stability Graph is a widely used tool for the design of open stopes in underground mining. Many users of the Stability Graph still apply this design method manually. Although the manual approach has benefits, using multiple graphs and stability number computation charts for each stope surface is time-consuming, even for the experienced mining engineer. Current practice in the use of the method also limits data sharing. This paper presents a StopeSoft web-based tool for open stope stability prediction that is developed on the basis of the Stability Graph method and is available at openstope.com. StopeSoft incorporates flexibility in terms of Stability Graph options and incorporates additional critical factors often overlooked. As a web-based tool, StopeSoft encourages and makes data sharing possible globally, focused on expanding the database and improving the current limitations of the Stability Graph to provide practical, reliable solutions for mining engineers, consultants, and academics. The StopeSoft automated process facilitates the process of open stope stability prediction, saving time and minimizing potential human errors. Statistical treatment of the data accounts for the variability of input parameters to emphasize the probabilistic nature of the Stability Graph method. The probabilistic interpretation of the stability states of stope surfaces eliminates the false feeling of absolute stope performance based on its location on the Stability Graph , as implied by the deterministic approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method

The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. Here, the objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deterministic High-Fidelity Neutronics Simulation of Pebble Bed Reactors Using Pebble Tracking Transport

The pebble tracking transport (PTT) algorithm offers a high-fidelity deterministic approach for neutron transport for pebble bed reactors (PBRs). This approach requires the mesh for the active-core region to consist exclusively of tetrahedral elements, where each node in the pebble-packing region represents a pebble centroid. This paper investigates the application of PTT for full-scale PBRs, considering both the isothermal and the temperature-dependent core conditions. Macroscopic cross sections are generated using Serpent 2 full-core eigenvalue simulations where pebbles are grouped into disjoint subsets using machine learning. To minimize the need for individual cross-section sets for each pebble in the core, K-means clustering is used to group pebbles by temperature and neutronic environment parameters. Here, we compare the multiplication factor and power rate distributions between PTT simulations using the Griffin reactor physics software and reference solutions from Serpent 2. Our analysis shows that a full-core, high-fidelity PTT calculation produces accurate results with minimal local (pebblewise) errors. Additionally, timing results indicate that PTT simulations converge rapidly on modern supercomputing platforms.

Griffin↗