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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2012

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Deterministic Annealing Approach to Clustering AIRS Data

We will examine the validity of means and standard deviations as a basis for climate data products. We will explore the conditions under which these two simple statistics are inadequate summaries of the underlying empirical probability distributions by contrasting them with a nonparametric, method called Deterministic Annealing technique

clustering↗

NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of dose estimates using the buildup-factor method and a Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with Monte Carlo results

Continuing efforts toward validating the buildup factor method and the BRYNTRN code, which use the deterministic approach in solving radiation transport problems and are the candidate engineering tools in space radiation shielding analyses, are presented. A simplified theory of proton buildup factors assuming no neutron coupling is derived to verify a previously chosen form for parameterizing the dose conversion factor that includes the secondary particle buildup effect. Estimates of dose in tissue made by the two deterministic approaches and the Monte Carlo method are intercompared for cases with various thicknesses of shields and various types of proton spectra. The results are found to be in reasonable agreement but with some overestimation by the buildup factor method when the effect of neutron production in the shield is significant. Future improvement to include neutron coupling in the buildup factor theory is suggested to alleviate this shortcoming. Impressive agreement for individual components of doses, such as those from the secondaries and heavy particle recoils, are obtained between BRYNTRN and Monte Carlo results.

Shinn, Judy L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Toward the modeling of land use change: A spatial analysis using remote sensing and historical data

It was hypothesized that the chronological observation of land use change could be shown to follow a predictable pattern and these patterns could be correlated with other statistical data to develop transition probabilities suitable for modeling purposes. A literature review and preliminary research, however, indicated a totally stochastic approach was not practical for simulating land use change and thus a more deterministic approach was adopted. The approach used assumes the determinants of the land use conversion process are found in the market place, where land transactions among buyers and sellers occur. Only one side of the market transaction process is studied, however, namely, the purchaser's desires in securing an ideal or suitable site. The problem was to identify the ideal qualities, quantities or attributes desired in an industrial site (or housing development), and to formulate a general algorithmic statement capable of identifying potential development sites. Research procedures involved developing a list of variables previously noted in the literature to be related to site selection and streamlining the list to a set suitable for statistical testing. A sample of 157 industries which have located (or relocated) in the 16-county Knoxville metropolitan region since 1950 was selected for industrial location analysis. Using NASA color infrared photography and Tennessee Valley Authority historical aerial photography, data were collected on the spatial characteristics of each industrial location event. These data were then subjected to factor analysis to determine the interrelations of variables.

Honea, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Implicitly Coordinated Detect and Avoid Capability for Safe Autonomous Operation of Small UAS

As the airspace becomes increasingly shared by autonomous small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), there would be a pressing need for coordination strategies so that aircraft can safely and independently maneuver around obstacles, geofences, and traffic aircraft. Explicitly coordinating resolution strategies for small UAS would require additional components such as a reliable vehicle-to-vehicle communication infrastructure and standardized protocols for information exchange that could significantly increase the cost of deploying small UAS in a shared airspace. This paper explores a novel approach that enables multiple aircraft to implicitly coordinate their resolution maneuvers. By requiring all aircraft to execute the proposed approach deterministically, it is possible for all of them to implicitly agree on the region of airspace each will be occupying in a given time interval. The proposed approach lends itself to the construction of a suitable feedback mechanism that enables the real-time execution of an implicitly conflict-free path in a closed-loop manner dealing with uncertainties in aircraft speed. If a network infrastructure is available, the proposed approach can also exploit the benefits of explicit information.

Balachandran, Swee↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFS) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Models, Biological↗

NASA NTRS1969

Comments on the possibility for determining detailed atmospheric structure from transhorizon radio propagation measurements

A deterministic approach is used to examine the atmospheric structure at any instant in time, with an assumption as to the degree of anisotropy. A statistical model is also used to relate the experimental data to atmospheric structure. With this model, the three dimensional spectrum of spatial wave numbers of the refractivity fluctuations are determined, along with correlations which exist within the spectrum.

Kieburtz, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Meteorological Measurements from Satellite Platforms

The stability of stochastic satellites and the stability and control of flexible satellites were investigated. The effects of random environmental torques and noises in the moments of inertia of spinning and three-axes stabilized satellites were first compared analytically by four methods and by analog simulations. Among the analytical methods, it was shown that the Fokker-Planck formulation yields predictions which most coincide with the simulation results. It was then shown that the required stability criterion of a satellite is quite different from that obtained by a deterministic approach, under the assumption that the environmental and control torques experienced by the satellite are random. Finally, it was demonstrated that, by monitoring the deformations of the flexible elements of a satellite, the effectiveness of the satellite control system can be increased considerably.

Suomi, V. E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Theory and applications survey of decentralized control methods

A nonmathematical overview is presented of trends in the general area of decentralized control strategies which are suitable for hierarchical systems. Advances in decentralized system theory are closely related to advances in the so-called stochastic control problem with nonclassical information pattern. The basic assumptions and mathematical tools pertaining to the classical stochastic control problem are outlined. Particular attention is devoted to pitfalls in the mathematical problem formulation for decentralized control. Major conclusions are that any purely deterministic approach to multilevel hierarchical dynamic systems is unlikely to lead to realistic theories or designs, that the flow of measurements and decisions in a decentralized system should not be instantaneous and error-free, and that delays in information exchange in a decentralized system lead to reasonable approaches to decentralized control. A mathematically precise notion of aggregating information is not yet available.

Athans, M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Stability and control of flexible satellites. I - Stability

This investigation has two distinct parts. In this first part the environmental and control torques experienced by a satellite are assumed to be random so as to account for the inherent errors in the control systems and the lack of exact models of the environmental torques. It has been shown that under this assumption the required stability criteria of a satellite is quite different from that obtained by a deterministic approach. It has also been shown that a flexible three-axes stabilized satellite can be made almost certainly asymptotically stable, while the same is not true for a flexible spinning satellite.

Huang, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Computer program for post-flight analysis of rigid body moments acting on a launch vehicle first stage

A FORTRAN coded computer program and method for evaluation of the rigid body disturbing moments for a launch vehicle first stage based on post-flight measurements is described. The technique is a straightforward deterministic approach. Residual moments are computed to satisfy the equations of motion. Residuals are expressed in terms of altered vehicle characteristics; the aerodynamic coefficients, thrust misalignment, and control effectiveness. This method was used on the Scout launch vehicle and uncovered several significant differences between flight data and wind tunnel data. The computer program is written in FORTRAN IV for a CDC CYBER 173 computer system.

Knauber, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1992

SDIO Producibility and Manufacturing Intelligent Processing Programs

SDIO has to fashion a comprehensive strategy to insert the capability of an industrial base into ongoing design tradeoffs. This means that there is not only a need to determine if something can be made to the precision needed to meet system performance, but also what changes need to be made in that industry sector to develop a deterministic approach to fabrication precision components. Developing and introducing advanced production and quality control systems is part of this success. To address this situation, SDIO has developed the MODIL (Manufacturing Operations Development and Integration Labs) program. MODILs were developed into three areas: Survivable Optics, Electronics and Sensors, and Spacecraft Fabrication and Test.

Stottlemyer, Greg↗

NASA NTRS1995

Contingency designs for attitude determination of TRMM

In this paper, several attitude estimation designs are developed for the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. A contingency attitude determination mode is required in the event of a primary sensor failure. The final design utilizes a full sixth-order Kalman filter. However, due to initial software concerns, the need to investigate simpler designs was required. The algorithms presented in this paper can be utilized in place of a full Kalman filter, and require less computational burden. These algorithms are based on filtered deterministic approaches and simplified Kalman filter approaches. Comparative performances of all designs are shown by simulating the TRMM spacecraft in mission mode. Comparisons of the simulation results indicate that comparable accuracy with respect to a full Kalman filter design is possible.

Crassidis, John L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Computing Interactions Of Free-Space Radiation With Matter

High Charge and Energy Transport (HZETRN) computer program computationally efficient, user-friendly package of software adressing problem of transport of, and shielding against, radiation in free space. Designed as "black box" for design engineers not concerned with physics of underlying atomic and nuclear radiation processes in free-space environment, but rather primarily interested in obtaining fast and accurate dosimetric information for design and construction of modules and devices for use in free space. Computational efficiency achieved by unique algorithm based on deterministic approach to solution of Boltzmann equation rather than computationally intensive statistical Monte Carlo method. Written in FORTRAN.

Wilson, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Optimization of Systems with Uncertainty: Initial Developments for Performance, Robustness and Reliability Based Designs

This paper presents a study on the optimization of systems with structured uncertainties, whose inputs and outputs can be exhaustively described in the probabilistic sense. By propagating the uncertainty from the input to the output in the space of the probability density functions and the moments, optimization problems that pursue performance, robustness and reliability based designs are studied. Be specifying the desired outputs in terms of desired probability density functions and then in terms of meaningful probabilistic indices, we settle a computationally viable framework for solving practical optimization problems. Applications to static optimization and stability control are used to illustrate the relevance of incorporating uncertainty in the early stages of the design. Several examples that admit a full probabilistic description of the output in terms of the design variables and the uncertain inputs are used to elucidate the main features of the generic problem and its solution. Extensions to problems that do not admit closed form solutions are also evaluated. Concrete evidence of the importance of using a consistent probabilistic formulation of the optimization problem and a meaningful probabilistic description of its solution is provided in the examples. In the stability control problem the analysis shows that standard deterministic approaches lead to designs with high probability of running into instability. The implementation of such designs can indeed have catastrophic consequences.

Crespo, Luis G.↗