Weather Forecasting Limitations in the Developing World
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Lofstead, Gerald Fredrick↗
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Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds
Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.
+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗
Industry Scan of Non-SF6 Gas-Insulated Technologies
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF 6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF 6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF 6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. Since SF 6 recognition as a significant contributor to climate change, most governments and organizations have sought ways to reduce or eliminate their use of this gas. Many utilities have initiated leak monitoring and repair programs which have significantly reduced emissions of this gas into the atmosphere. While leak reduction programs have been effective at reducing emission rates in the developed world, leak rates remain frozen at ~1% annually. However, one of the largest and fastest growing markets for this gas is in the developing world where emissions standards are often lacking (P&S Intelligence. 2023). To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF 6 , alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF 6 , at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. This report was commissioned by the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under the Transformer Resilience and Advanced Components (TRAC) program to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF 6 -free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption. While this report is tailored to the United States, the findings should be relevant to all stakeholders seeking to reduce SF 6 emissions.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Attempting to Develop the World’s Most Cost-Effective Metal 3D Printing Technology Through Industrial Adoption of a High-Temperature Electro-Magnetic Nozzle for 3D Printing and Computer Numerical Control Integration
This project aimed to make a practical system capable of sustained metal deposition in air engineered with industrial integration and controls. The Al-Ce wire feedstock was tailored with appropriate deposition and solidification properties for direct reactive interface printing (DRIP), and the goal was to integrate onto a Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies system for producing test parts without a controlled environment.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Attempting to Develop the World’s Most Cost-Effective Metal 3D Printing Technology Through Industrial Adoption of a High-Temperature Electro-Magnetic Nozzle for 3D Printing and Computer Numerical Control Integration
This project aimed to make a practical system capable of sustained metal deposition in air engineered with industrial integration and controls. The Al-Ce wire feedstock was tailored with appropriate deposition and solidification properties for direct reactive interface printing (DRIP), and the goal was to integrate onto a Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies system for producing test parts without a controlled environment.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
The USAID-NREL Partnership
The United States Agency for International Development is drawing on U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory expertise to advance clean, resilient, and equitable energy systems in the developing world through the USAID-NREL Partnership.
advanced power systems↗
Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits
Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Chemical Feedback in the Self-Assembly and Function of Air–Liquid Interfaces: Insight into the Bottlenecks of CO 2 Direct Air Capture
As fossil fuels remain a major source of energy throughout the world, developing efficient negative emission technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC), which remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air, becomes critical for mitigating climate change. Although all DAC processes involve CO 2 transport from air into a sorbent/solvent, through an air–solid or air–liquid interface, the fundamental roles the interfaces play in DAC remain poorly understood. In this work, we study the interfacial behavior of amino acid (AA) solvents used in DAC through a combination of vibrational sum frequency generation spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations. This study revealed that the absorption of atmospheric CO 2 has antagonistic effects on subsequent capture events that are driven by changes in bulk pH and specific ion effects that feedback on surface organization and interactions. Among the three AAs (leucine, valine, and phenylalanine) studied, we identify and separate behaviors from CO 2 loading, chemical changes, variations in pH, and specific ion effects that tune structural and chemical degrees of freedom at the air–aqueous interface. The fundamental mechanistic findings described here are anticipated to enable new approaches to DAC based on exploiting interfaces as a tool to address climate change.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Development of spirulina for the manufacture and oral delivery of protein therapeutics
The use of the edible photosynthetic cyanobacterium Arthrospira platensis (spirulina) as a biomanufacturing platform has been limited by a lack of genetic tools. Here we report genetic engineering methods for stable, high-level expression of bioactive proteins in spirulina, including large-scale, indoor cultivation and downstream processing methods. Following targeted integration of exogenous genes into the spirulina chromosome (chr), encoded protein biopharmaceuticals can represent as much as 15% of total biomass, require no purification before oral delivery and are stable without refrigeration and protected during gastric transit when encapsulated within dry spirulina. Oral delivery of a spirulina-expressed antibody targeting campylobacter—a major cause of infant mortality in the developing world—prevents disease in mice, and a phase 1 clinical trial demonstrated safety for human administration. Spirulina provides an advantageous system for the manufacture of orally delivered therapeutic proteins by combining the safety of a food-based production host with the accessible genetic manipulation and high productivity of microbial platforms.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Geographic disparities of cardiovascular and cancer mortality in the USA: 1981–2019
Background: Cardiovascular and cancer mortality are the two leading causes of death in the developed world including the USA. However, mortality trends for these diseases are highly dynamic, and the geographic landscape is in transition. We analyze patterns of mortality improvement at county level during recent decades focusing on mortality decline and geographic diversity. Methods: We grouped age-adjusted mortality rates of cardiovascular and cancer diseases from CDC WONDER for 2959 US counties into 3-year time periods to improve reliability. We calculated percent mortality decrease between 1981–83 and 2016–19 for both causes to quantify mortality improvements for counties. Results: Using standard deviation as an index of disparities, place-based cancer mortalities were 68% larger than cardiovascular disparities. Significantly, 566 US counties had same or higher rates of cancer mortality in 2019 as in 1981. The geographic distribution of mortality improvement in either cause tends to favor largely populated areas along coasts. Less-populated, rural places in the interior and southeastern regions were experiencing less improvement. Conclusions: At the county level, large place-based disparities exist for both causes of death with the magnitude of disparities being substantially larger for the reduction in cancer deaths. Put differently, place matters, more for cancer than cardiovascular mortality.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Volume 4: Detection Systems and Ultra-Cold Neutrons
As part of the Sustaining and Enhancing Nuclear Science (SENSe) initiative at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the prospect of adding new detection systems to support High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) operations and to advance scientific research has prompted many ideas and discussions regarding potential features, configurations, locations, and applications. A working group of ORNL staff members was organized to further develop the concepts and recommending one or more configurations to best support future HFIR operations and scientific capacities and to provide order-of-magnitude cost estimates and timing. The areas of investigation included fast access detection systems, non-scattering beamline instruments, shielded detection instruments, and an ultracold neutron source. In each case, the focus was to develop world leading capabilities that would be unmatched by any other facility.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Progress in $Nb_3Sn$ SRF Technology: Opportunities and Outlook
Nb3Sn superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities can expand performance capabilities of particle accelerators for both the fundamental research and the industrial applications. The technology holds a great appeal especially to small-scale applications, where it can enable a turn-key compact cryocooler operation eliminating the need for complex sub-atmospheric liquid helium cryogenic plants. Since the research into Nb3Sn SRF coatings using vapor diffusion technique restarted in 2009 at Cornell University, there has been a growing number of SRF groups around the world developing this technology with a steady increase in cavity performance and system complexity. In this talk, after a short overview of SRF technology, I will present on some of the recent developments in Nb3Sn SRF cavities, focusing on recent efforts to complete the first-of-its-kind Nb3Sn 2-cavity CEBAF-type cryomodule, which was assembled and tested last year. The talk will conclude with a short overview on some of the ongoing projects and the future possibilities for Nb3Sn cavities in accelerator applications.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
THERMAL STRUCTURAL AND SHOCK EVENT EVALUATIONS OF THE FUELING PELLET INJECTION SYSTEM FOR ITER
The US is among seven partner nations in a collaborative effort to design, build, and demonstrate fusion’s ability to be a large-scale carbon free energy source. Each country has its own Domestic Agencies (DA) that contribute directly to the ITER project. US ITER, which is a DOE Office of Science project managed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is developing world class engineering solutions to the design, construction, and assembly of the burning plasma experiment that can demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion. US ITER’s scope includes completing the preliminary and final design, qualifying materials and processes for manufacture and testing, executing manufacturing, and delivering the Fueling Pellet Injection System (FPIS) to the ITER site for assembly. The US-ITER FPIS system is designed to inject cryogenically frozen pellets of deuterium-tritium (D-T) into the plasma. The FPIS has two main functions: 1. Provide a steady supply of deuterium and tritium fuel, 2. Mitigating the impact of edge localized modes on the plasma facing components. The FPIS will have the capability to reside in three port cells within a tritium second barrier containment cask. Each pellet cask contains three flight tubes linking with penetrations on the torus cryopump housing and vacuum vessel (VV): two for the magnetic high field side (HFS) pellet injection and one for the magnetic low field side (LFS) pellet injection. This paper presents results of the thermal-structural analyses of the FPIS flight tube structural components when subjected to various loads such as electromagnetic (EM) loads, nuclear heating, seismic, and operational, and dynamic shock events. The resulting temperatures and stresses under combined conditions have been found to satisfy the design criteria to ensure safe and reliable operation of the FPIS flight tubes within the vacuum vessel.
Martinez, Oscar↗
Heavy-Duty Nonroad Material Handler Electrification Part 1: Real-World Drive Cycle Development
Knowing a detailed operating cycle is critical for developing and testing equipment. Operating cycles can be separated by two clear distinctions: (1) regulatory or non-regulatory and (2) application at the engine-only or full machine level. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Nonroad Transient Cycle (NRTC) may be a good representation of engine use in many types of equipment, but there is a gap in standardized and validated drive cycles specifically for nonroad material handlers. Lacking a standardized drive cycle makes it difficult to accurately benchmark machine performance and validate new powertrain technologies. The objective of this investigation is to illustrate the development of a custom drive cycle augmented with real-world customer use data that serves multiple purposes: (1) understand the range of operation and utilization that formulated inputs for electrified architecture analysis and (2) develop a repetitive and consistent maneuver to establish baseline energy consumption enabling equivalent comparison to future electrified prototype builds. This article presents a solution specifically for a 23-ton nonroad material handler in which material handling, machine transport, and extended idle were homologated to form representative short cycles defined by machine velocity and hydraulic cylinder position. The most intensive material handling short cycles had a load factor of 40% and an average fuel rate of 16 L/h. Combined with a visual aid, the short cycles exhibited low variability, having less than 5% root mean square (RMS) error in lift and reach position with respect to the average. The machine’s performance on these short cycles at the Advanced Power Systems Research Center (APSRC) was compared to results from two real-world customer locations operating the instrumented test machine in a cyclical manner, and for similar ground conditions were found to be comparable in fuel consumption.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Latest Development to Establish the World Reference with Traceability to SI Units for Measuring the Atmospheric Shortwave and Longwave Irradiance
To date, Interim world reference traceable to blackbody (not sky/atmosphere) is used as a reference noted as a World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). Plan forward: to develop a reference standards traceable to SI InfraRed Integrating Sphere (IRIS) Developed by the World Radiation Center (PMOD) is traceable to blackbody irradiance. Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) developed by NLR is a self-calibrating radiometer using heat substitution to measure the atmospheric longwave irradiance. ACP is a contribution to develop the world reference with traceability to SI, using the outdoor irradiance as the source, instead of blackbody.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report: Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Development Around the World
This report summarizes the state of the science of environmental effects of marine renewable energy (MRE) and serves as an update and a complement to the 2020 State of the Science report. The 2024 State of the Science report was produced by the Ocean Energy Systems (OES)-Environmental initiative, under the International Energy Agency’s OES collaboration. Under OES-Environmental, 16 countries have collaborated to evaluate the “state of the science” of potential environmental effects of MRE development and to understand how they may affect consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) of MRE devices. This report has brought together the most up-to-date information on potential environmental effects of MRE development, using information that is publicly available as well as from expert inputs. The OES-Environmental analysts from the 16 participating countries helped to scope the entirety of the report and provided valuable contributions to all chapters. The input from these contributors and reviewers has resulted in the most complete compendium of research and monitoring findings possible. This report encompasses an introduction and look ahead, as well as nine chapters that provide details of research and monitoring findings around the world on environmental effects of MRE.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP)
Measure atmospheric longwave irradiance. ABSOLUTE measurement traceable to International System of Units (SI). To date, Interim world reference traceable to blackbody (not sky/atmosphere), World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). InfraRed Integrating Sphere (IRIS) Developed by the World Radiation Center (PMOD) is traceable to blackbody irradiance. ACP is self-calibrated radiometer using heat substitution like Absolute Cavity Radiometer (ACR) that is self-calibrated radiometer using electrical substitution to measure solar irradiance. ACP is a contribution to develop the world reference with traceability to SI, using the outdoor irradiance as the source, instead of blackbody.
ACP↗
Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machines
The advanced power electronics and electric machines (APEEM) research group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed world-class experimental and modeling capabilities for designing and evaluating efficient and reliable power electronics and electric machines thermal management systems. They also design, fabricate and characterize advanced power electronics packaging, and are developing state-of-health monitoring techniques. These researchers deliver safe, reliable, high performing, power-dense components that allow seamless integration between renewable energy sources, electric transportation, and the grid, helping to make widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction more feasible. This document outlines the group's major capabilities in the areas of power electronics; module development and characterization; thermal modeling and management; thermomechanical reliability analysis of devices, modules, inverters/converters, and electric machines; physics-of-failure-based reliability analysis; and microelectronics. It also overviews the group's state-of-the-art equipment for fluid-based thermal management; thermal measurement & characterization; thermomechanical reliability analysis; micro- and power electronics measurement & characterization; and prototype fabrication, as well as the group's world-class modeling and simulation capabilities.
advanced gate drivers↗