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DOE OSTI2024

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) [and subsequently titled] Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022) (Final Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the DOE Measurement Innovation grant DE-SC0017998 titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) and subsequently titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022). The grant was funded by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) for the period 1 September 2017 – 31 May 2022. Work performed through the grant has resulted in diagnostic innovations and new measurement capabilities that could improve understanding of magnetic equilibrium, edge localized modes in tokamaks, and bootstrap and Pfirsch-Schlüter currents in stellarators. We have performed simulations of a novel non-hydrogen beam-based diagnostic that would determine a local value (in the plasma) of the poloidal flux function by measuring the toroidal angle of the beam particles' velocity at a detector external to the plasma. The approach is similar to that of a Heavy Ion Beam Probe (HIBP), but would be able to operate with a smaller, more economical detection systems and, in doing so, may enable substantial extension of scenarios in which beam-based diagnostics are deployed. Key results include: Identification of the neutral and singly charged atoms that are most appropriate for use in the beam based diagnostic and the ionization cross-sections that are important for studying the plasma edge of a large device; Development of a promising geometry for operation in which the beam is injected horizontally near the torus midplane; Implementation of simulations using banana orbit trajectories of secondary beam ions to access plasma regions that are commonly in-accessible to an HIBP diagnostic, including sample volumes near the X-point of a diverted tokamak; Assessment of the ability of the diagnostic concept (originally developed under the assumption of, and reliant on, symmetry) to work in stellarators by performing simulations with both quasi-symmetric fields and non-quasi-symmetric fields; Measurement of noise levels with a prototype detector on a stellarator and exploration of techniques to minimize effects of noise on a diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigation and Diagnosis of Pin-Hole Formation in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells

In this work, we implement a calendering technique to flatten stray fibers within the gas diffusion media, thereby mitigating pin-hole formation in the hot-pressed MEAs. We have investigated the influence of calendering on the long-term durability for several types of gas diffusion electrodes (GDEs) using a combined chemical and mechanical accelerated stress test (AST). The calendered MEAs demonstrate an average AST lifetime improvement of 77% relative to the as-fabricated MEAs.

AMR↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of radiation exposure on survival after first solid cancer diagnosis in A-bomb survivors

Comparison of the estimated effect of atomic bomb radiation exposure on solid cancer incidence and solid cancer mortality in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) reveals a difference in the magnitude and shape of the excess relative risk dose response. A possible contributing factor to this difference is pre-diagnosis radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival. Pre-diagnosis radiation exposure theoretically could influence post-diagnosis survival by affecting the genetic makeup and possibly aggressiveness of cancer, or by compromising tolerance for aggressive treatment for cancer. We analyze the radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival in 20,463 LSS subjects diagnosed with first-primary solid cancer between 1958 and 2009 with particular attention to whether death was caused by the first-primary cancer, other cancer, or non-cancer diseases. From multivariable Cox regression analysis of cause-specific survival, the excess hazard at 1 Gy (EH 1Gy ) for death from the first primary cancer was not significantly different from zero – p = 0.23, EH 1Gy = 0.038 (95 % CI: –0.023, 0.104). Death from other cancer and death from non-cancer diseases both were significantly associated with radiation dose: other cancer EH 1Gy = 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.53); non-cancer EH 1Gy = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.13, 0.36), both p < 0.001. There is no detectable large effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on post-diagnosis death from the first primary cancer in A-bomb survivors. A direct effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on cancer prognosis is ruled out as an explanation for the difference in incidence and mortality dose response in A-bomb survivors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep reinforcement learning for class imbalance fault diagnosis of equipment in nuclear power plants

In equipment fault diagnosis in nuclear power plants, there may be far more samples in one class (e.g., a health state) than in another class (e.g., a fault state). The distribution of data in each class is highly skewed. Most machine learning algorithms are suitable for balanced training datasets. When faced with imbalanced samples, these algorithms tend to provide good identification for the majority classes and bias for the minority classes. However, the misclassification of minority classes can lead to high costs. To address the above problem, this paper develops a deep reinforcement learning-based diagnosis method that models fault diagnosis as a sequential decision-making process. At each time step, the agent receives the state of the environment represented by the training samples and then takes a diagnosis action guided by a policy. If the action is correct/incorrect, the agent receives a positive/negative reward. The reward for minority classes is higher than that for majority classes. The agent’s goal is to obtain as many cumulative rewards as possible in the process, i.e., to identify the sample as correctly as possible. Six demonstration scenarios are constructed, depending on the selected fault datasets and the designed model structures. Experiments show that the proposed method achieves a higher weighted-averaged F1 score than the classical supervised learning method in most cases of class imbalance. Finally, the proposed method has potential applications in the field of class imbalance fault diagnosis of equipment in nuclear power plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Consistent performance of large language models in rare disease diagnosis across ten languages and 4917 cases

Background Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used medicine for diverse applications including differential diagnostic support. The training data used to create LLMs such as the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) predominantly consist of English-language texts, but LLMs could be used across the globe to support diagnostics if language barriers could be overcome. Initial pilot studies on the utility of LLMs for differential diagnosis in languages other than English have shown promise, but a large-scale assessment on the relative performance of these models in a variety of European and non-European languages on a comprehensive corpus of challenging rare-disease cases is lacking. Methods We created 4917 clinical vignettes using structured data captured with Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) terms with the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) Phenopacket Schema. These clinical vignettes span a total of 360 distinct genetic diseases with 2525 associated phenotypic features. We used translations of the Human Phenotype Ontology together with language-specific templates to generate prompts in English, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Spanish, and Turkish. We applied GPT-4o, version gpt-4o-2024-08-06, and the medically fine-tuned Meditron3-70B to the task of delivering a ranked differential diagnosis using a zero-shot prompt. An ontology-based approach with the Mondo disease ontology was used to map synonyms and to map disease subtypes to clinical diagnoses in order to automate evaluation of LLM responses. Findings For English, GPT-4o placed the correct diagnosis at the first rank 19.9% and within the top-3 ranks 27.0% of the time. In comparison, for the nine non-English languages tested here the correct diagnosis was placed at rank 1 between 16.9% and 20.6%, within top-3 between 25.4% and 28.6% of cases. The Meditron3 model placed the correct diagnosis within the first 3 ranks for 20.9% of cases in English and between 19.9% and 24.0% for the other nine languages. Interpretation The differential diagnostic performance of LLMs across a comprehensive corpus of rare-disease cases was largely consistent across the ten languages tested. This suggests that the utility of LLMs in clinical settings may extend to non-English clinical settings.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

AIIO: Using Artificial Intelligence for Job-Level and Automatic I/O Performance Bottleneck Diagnosis

Manually diagnosing the I/O performance bottleneck for a single application (hereinafter referred to as the "job level'') is a tedious and error-prone procedure requiring domain scientists to have deep knowledge of complex storage systems. However, existing automatic methods for I/O performance bottleneck diagnosis have one major issue: the granularity of the analysis is at the platform or group level and the diagnosis results cannot be applied to the individual application. To address this issue, we designed and developed a method named "Artificial Intelligence for I/O"(AIIO), which uses AI and its interpretation technology to diagnose I/O performance bottlenecks at the job level automatically. By considering the sparsity of I/O log files, employing multiple AI models for performance prediction, merging diagnosis results across multiple models, and generalizing its performance prediction and diagnosis functions, AIIO can accurately and robustly identify the bottleneck of an even unseen application. Experimental results show that real and unseen applications can use the diagnosis results from AIIO to improve their I/O performance by at most 146 times.

Dong, Bin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sex Differences in Odds of Brain Metastasis and Outcomes by Brain Metastasis Status after Advanced Melanoma Diagnosis

Sex differences in cancer are well-established. However, less is known about sex differences in diagnosis of brain metastasis and outcomes among patients with advanced melanoma. Using a United States nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database, we evaluated patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma from 1 January 2011–30 July 2022 who received an oncologist-defined rule-based first line of therapy (n = 7969, 33% female according to EHR, 35% w/documentation of brain metastases). The odds of documented brain metastasis diagnosis were calculated using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, practice type, diagnosis period (pre/post-2017), ECOG performance status, anatomic site of melanoma, group stage, documentation of non-brain metastases prior to first-line of treatment, and BRAF positive status. Real-world overall survival (rwOS) and progression-free survival (rwPFS) starting from first-line initiation were assessed by sex, accounting for brain metastasis diagnosis as a time-varying covariate using the Cox proportional hazards model, with the same adjustments as the logistic model, excluding group stage, while also adjusting for race, socioeconomic status, and insurance status. Adjusted analysis revealed males with advanced melanoma were 22% more likely to receive a brain metastasis diagnosis compared to females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09, 1.36). Males with brain metastases had worse rwOS (aHR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.28) but not worse rwPFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.14) following first-line treatment initiation. Among patients with advanced melanoma who were not diagnosed with brain metastases, survival was not different by sex (rwOS aHR: 1.06 [95% CI: 0.97, 1.16], rwPFS aHR: 1.02 [95% CI: 0.94, 1.1]). This study showed that males had greater odds of brain metastasis and, among those with brain metastasis, poorer rwOS compared to females, while there were no sex differences in clinical outcomes for those with advanced melanoma without brain metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Structures in Fault Diagnosis for Lithium-Ion Battery Packs

Lithium-ion battery systems consist of a varying number of single cells, designed to meet specific application requirements for output voltage and capacity. Effective fault diagnosis in these battery systems is an essential prerequisite for ensuring their safe and reliable operation. To address this need, we introduce a novel model-based fault diagnosis approach that distinguishes itself by leveraging informative structures inherent in battery systems such as architecture, uniformity among the constituent cells, and sparsity of fault occurrences to enhance its fault diagnosis capabilities. The proposed approach formulates a moving horizon estimation (MHE) problem, incorporating such structural information to estimate different fault signals—specifically, internal short circuits, external short circuits, and voltage and current sensors faults. We conduct various simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach under different fault types and magnitudes. The obtained results validate the proposed approach and promise effective fault diagnosis for battery systems.

Farakhor, Amir↗

DOE OSTI2024

Online Dynamic Cyber-Attack Diagnosis in Power Electronics Systems Based on Few-Shot Learning

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, power electronics systems are facing higher risks of cyber-physical attacks. To ensure system stability and minimize potential economic losses, it is critical to monitor the operating states and detect those attacks at the early stage. However, anomaly detection and diagnosis of attacks are still challenging, especially when labeled anomaly data is difficult or even infeasible to obtain. To overcome this problem, we propose a Few-Shot Learning (FSL) based approach for cyber-attack diagnosis leveraging the waveform data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt at leveraging FSL for cyber-attack diagnosis in power electronics systems. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach can achieve comparable diagnosis accuracy with the state-of-the-art data-driven methods using less than 0.04% of the training samples.

Li, Qi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Longitudinal Changes in Immune Activation Serum Biomarkers Prior to Diagnosis and Risk of B-cell NHL Subtypes

To examine the contribution of B-cell activation molecules to B-cell follicular lymphoma (FL) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), a prospective study was conducted using pre-diagnosis serial serum samples from the US Department of Defense Serum Repository. Each case (n = 142 FL, n = 211 DLBCL) was matched to two controls on age, gender, race, military branch, and blood collection dates. Immune activation molecules (IL1β, IL2, IL4, IL5, IL6, IL10, IL12, CXCL13, IL8, TNFα, IFNγ, GM-CSF, VEGF, sCD30, IgE) were quantified using ELISA or multiplex immunometric (Luminex) assay. Longitudinal data were analyzed using linear mixed modeling. As serial specimens were collected over several years before diagnosis, we evaluated the temporal dynamics of these markers. Increased serum levels of sCD30, CXCL13, and to a lesser extent IL10, were associated with both FL and DLBCL in cases compared with controls, with a median follow-up of 5.5 years from the earliest specimen collection to diagnosis date. Significant increasing sCD30 and CXCL13 trajectories for FL and DLBCL subtypes were noted starting at the earliest time points and with IL10 levels increasing significantly at time points closer to diagnosis. In conclusion, these results suggest that sCD30, CXCL13, and IL10 may contribute to the etiology of FL and DLBCL and are potential biomarkers for these non–Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes. The increasing trajectories of the B-cell activation molecules, sCD30, CXCL13, and to a lesser extent IL10, may indicate early disease-induced effects or reflect the chronic stimulation of B-cells that promotes the development of FL and DLBCL subtypes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Air Conditioning Systems Fault Detection and Diagnosis-Based Sensing and Data-Driven Approaches

The air conditioning (AC) system is the primary building end-use contributor to the peak demand for energy. The energy consumed by this system has grown as fast as it has in the last few decades, not only in the residential section but also in the industry and transport sectors. Therefore, to combat energy crises, urgent actions on energy efficiency should be taken to support energy security. Consequently, the faults in AC system components increase energy consumption due to the degradation of the system’s performance and the losses in the energy conversion procedure. In this work, AC system fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) methods are investigated to propose analytic tools to identify faults and provide solutions to those problems. The analysis of existing work shows that data-driven approaches are more accurate for both soft and hard fault detection and diagnosis in AC systems. Therefore, the proposed methods are not accurate for simultaneous fault detection, while in some works, authors tested the method with several faults separately without investigating scenarios that combine more than one fault. Moreover, this study shows that integrating data-driven approaches requires deploying an optimal sensing and measurement architecture that can detect a maximum number of faults with minimally deployed sensors. The new sensing, information, and communication technologies are discussed for their integration in AC system monitoring in order to optimize system operation and detect faults.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning based systems and methods for real time, model based diagnosis

The disclosure following relates generally to complex simulations, and fault diagnosis. In some embodiments, a component that is causing a delayed simulation time of a system is determined. A component of reduced complexity is designed, and the component of reduced complexity is used to replace the original component in the system. Fault diagnosis may then be conducted using the updated system with the reduced complexity component, thus decreasing the time taken to diagnose the fault.

Matei, Ion↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Envelope Time Synchronous Averaging for Wind Turbine Gearbox Fault Diagnosis

Vibration-based condition monitoring techniques are widely used for diagnosing faults in rotating machines. These techniques are implemented in the time domain, the frequency domain, or both. However, the composite and noisy nature of the raw data collected requires a preprocessing stage such as filtering and decomposition using in-depth processing techniques. Moreover, these methods require good frequency resolution and involve examining a broad frequency range to discern both healthy and faulty cases. In this work, we introduce a simple and fast diagnostic scheme for wind turbine gear teeth wear based on time domain analysis. The proposed method is based on the local minima interpolation of a filtered version of the vibration signal following time synchronous averaging (TSA) technique. Given tachometer signal, the TSA of the vibration data is performed using MTALAB software. Then, local minima of the filtered signal are interpolated using the Piecewise Cubic Hermite Interpolating Polynomial (PCHIP) function. The variance of the interpolated curve built a gear fault index. The derived fault index resulting of the proposed technique allows a substantial distinction between the healthy and faulty cases. Its efficiency is validated using 10 real-world datasets of vibration stemmed from a wind turbine planetary gearbox. The proposed method boasts a low computation time and ease of interpretation, specifically beneficial for gearbox fault diagnosis purposes.

fault diagnosis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active multi-mode data analysis to improve fault diagnosis in AHUs

Faults in heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems can lead to increased energy consumption, occupant comfort issues, and reduced equipment lifetime. Commercial fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) tools has been increasingly deployed in U.S. commercial buildings. While they are helping to achieve energy efficiency and operational reliability, there remain gaps in their fault diagnostic capabilities. The diagnostic results often contain multiple distinct candidate root causes (CRCs) or offer no insight into CRCs. This study developed a novel active rule-based multi-mode data analysis method to enhance diagnostic resolution by applying proven rule sets and additional new rules to data from multiple known operational modes. The proposed method was demonstrated using enhanced air handling unit performance assessment rule sets and validated with the simulated data of two air handling units. New metrics, namely, reduced number of CRCs and improvement ratio, were developed to quantify the improvement of fault diagnostic resolution. The validation results showed that the proposed method effectively reduced the number of CRCs in contrast to analyzing data solely for a single mode of operation. It achieved a median improvement ratio of 80% in 19 test cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity physics-informed machine learning for probabilistic damage diagnosis

Machine learning (ML) models are gaining popularity in structural health monitoring (SHM) because of their ability to learn the complex relationship between damage and sensor data. However, the lack of sufficient experimental data for structures with different degrees of damage is a key problem in training ML models for SHM. This problem can be alleviated by using physics-based models to generate the required training data to build physics-informed ML (PIML) models for SHM. However, it takes significant computational effort to perform enough high-fidelity simulations of the diagnostic test. It is thus desirable to know whether the available computational resource budget should be expended on numerous low-fidelity physics simulations, or a small number of high-fidelity simulations, or their combination. In this paper, we investigate this aspect of generating adequate training data for PIML, by constructing multi-fidelity PIML models. We evaluate the performance of several PIML models, trained with different amounts of low-fidelity and high-fidelity data, in locating hidden cracks in concrete structures using a nonlinear dynamics-based diagnosis technique. Here, we find that high-fidelity physics simulations that do not cover the (test and damage) parameter space do not improve the performance of diagnostic PIML models built using data from many low-fidelity physics simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Catalyzing deep decarbonization with federated battery diagnosis and prognosis for better data management in energy storage systems

Industrial data analytics methods play a central role in improving energy storage performance and efficiency, impacting the future of electrified transportation and renewable electricity generation. However, significant challenges hinder the large-scale deployment of batteries. Conventional methods rely on centralized collection and processing of fleet-level data, leading to database size issues and privacy concerns due to potential data breaches. To enable scalable deployment of battery management systems, this article proposes a federated battery diagnosis and prognosis model, which distributes the processing of battery standard current-voltage-time-usage data in a privacy-preserving manner. Instead of transferring the raw data, this approach communicates only the locally processed parameters, thus reducing communication load and preserving data confidentiality. The federated model offers a paradigm shift in battery health management through privacy-preserving distributed methods for battery data processing and lifetime prediction, ensuring the reliable and sustainable deployment of lithium-ion batteries in a rapidly evolving world.

asset health management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable discrepancy checker and diagnosis for digital Twin-based supervisory control system

By virtually representing a physical object and process, a digital twin (DT) enables optimal autonomous operations by combining classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems. A DT’s values depend on how well models estimate quantities of interest and on how uncertainty is handled. Moreover, DTs often combine physics-based and data-driven models with mixed fidelities, where classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) struggles with many sources of uncertainty and real-time constraints. Here, this work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system. The tool is developed using metadata from an automated DT development process to learn correlations between sources of uncertainties and outcomes. During operation, it compares predictions with measurements, attributes discrepancies to dominant sources, and recommends parameter and configuration updates. We verify the workflow on a synthetic temperature-control problem and deploy it on a virtual Thermal Energy Delivery System, reducing mismatch and improving control robustness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗