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Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of the SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division Activities and Technical Projects

The SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division activities include identification and fulfillment of joint industry, government, and academia needs for development and implementation of RMSL technologies. Four Projects in the Probabilistic Methods area and two in the area of RMSL have been identified. These are: (1) Evaluation of Probabilistic Technology - progress has been made toward the selection of probabilistic application cases. Future effort will focus on assessment of multiple probabilistic softwares in solving selected engineering problems using probabilistic methods. Relevance to Industry & Government - Case studies of typical problems encountering uncertainties, results of solutions to these problems run by different codes, and recommendations on which code is applicable for what problems; (2) Probabilistic Input Preparation - progress has been made in identifying problem cases such as those with no data, little data and sufficient data. Future effort will focus on developing guidelines for preparing input for probabilistic analysis, especially with no or little data. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we get bogged down thinking we need a lot of data before we can quantify uncertainties. Not True. There are ways to do credible probabilistic analysis with little data; (3) Probabilistic Reliability - probabilistic reliability literature search has been completed along with what differentiates it from statistical reliability. Work on computation of reliability based on quantification of uncertainties in primitive variables is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Correct reliability computations both at the component and system level are needed so one can design an item based on its expected usage and life span; (4) Real World Applications of Probabilistic Methods (PM) - A draft of volume 1 comprising aerospace applications has been released. Volume 2, a compilation of real world applications of probabilistic methods with essential information demonstrating application type and timehost savings by the use of probabilistic methods for generic applications is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we say, 'The Proof is in the Pudding'. With help from many contributors, we hope to produce such a document. Problem is - not too many people are coming forward due to proprietary nature. So, we are asking to document only minimum information including problem description, what method used, did it result in any savings, and how much?; (5) Software Reliability - software reliability concept, program, implementation, guidelines, and standards are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - software reliability is a complex issue that must be understood & addressed in all facets of business in industry, government, and other institutions. We address issues, concepts, ways to implement solutions, and guidelines for maximizing software reliability; (6) Maintainability Standards - maintainability/serviceability industry standard/guidelines and industry best practices and methodologies used in performing maintainability/ serviceability tasks are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - Any industry or government process, project, and/or tool must be maintained and serviced to realize the life and performance it was designed for. We address issues and develop guidelines for optimum performance & life.

Singhal, Surendra N.↗

A method for determining acoustic-liner admittance in ducts with sheared flow in two-cross-sectional directions

A method is developed for determining the acoustic admittance of a test liner installed in the wall of a grazing flow impedance tube. The mean flow is permitted flow gradients in both cross-sectional directions of the tube. The unknown admittance value is obtained by solving an eigenvalue problem. This eigenvalue problem results from the application of the finite-element method to the partial differential equation and boundary conditions governing the acoustic field. The credibility of the method is established by comparing results with exact solutions obtained for a constant mean-flow profile and with previous results for cases involving shear in only one cross-sectional direction. Excellent comparisons are obtained in both cases. The analysis is used in conjunction with a limited amount of experimental data and shows that the flow must be accurately modeled in order to determine the acoustic-liner properties.

Watson, W. R.↗

Radioelements on Vesta: An Update

The main-belt asteroid 4 Vesta is the putative parent body of the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites. Because these achondrites have similar petrology, geochemistry, chronology, and O-isotope compositions, it is thought that most HEDs originated from a single parent body. The connection to Vesta is supported by a close spectroscopic match between Vesta and the HEDs and a credible mechanism for their delivery to Earth. Studies of the HEDs show that Vesta underwent igneous differentiation, forming a Fe-rich core, ultramafic mantle, and basaltic crust. Here we present the results of peak analyses applied to a gamma ray difference spectrum to determine the absolute abundances of K and Th. Data are compared to meteorite whole-rock compositions and other inner solar system bodies. The results, while preliminary, represent our present best estimates for these elements. Because the element signatures are near detection limits and not fully resolved, further analysis (e.g. using spectral unmixing) will be required for improved accuracy and to characterize systematic errors.

Prettyman, T. H.↗