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CyTRICS Impact-Based Prioritization Process

Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems™ (CyTRICS™) is the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) program for cybersecurity vulnerability testing, digital subcomponent enumeration, and forensic assessment. CyTRICS leverages best-in-class test facilities and analytic capabilities at six DOE National Laboratories and strategic partnerships with key stakeholders including technology developers, manufacturers, asset owners and operators, and interagency partners. During the program’s development, CyTRICS established a unique methodology for prioritizing digital components within operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) in the Energy Sector Industrial Base (ESIB) for cyber vulnerability testing. The CyTRICS prioritization process leverages multiple characteristics of systems, components, and their contextual deployment to calculate a quantification of individual digital components for CyTRICS testing. The initial version of the CyTRICS prioritization process was premised largely upon the impact which could result to an energy sector industrial control system if the digital component under testing was compromised, either through malicious means, faulty engineering, or other modes. CyTRICS has termed this process the “CyTRICS Impact-based Prioritization Process.” This paper describes the factors identified for use in the Impact-based Prioritization process and identifies the rationale for inclusion. During development, three National Laboratories piloted this prioritization process and generated prioritization scores for seven systems. Following the piloting of the process, laboratory subject matter experts (SME) validated that the numerical scores generated by the prioritization process were consistent with their knowledge of the impact that may occur should any of these systems be disrupted. The following document explains how to perform the prioritization process to generate prioritization scores for energy sector systems. After outlining assumptions required to conduct the process, it describes how to identify and elicit data which can be leveraged to evaluate a system and assign numerical values for each factor. The prioritization process uses different weights on different factors; rationale for each weight is included within the paper. Additionally, the paper includes some recommendations for future enhancements to prioritization, including lessons learned from developing and piloting the process. Finally, a comprehensive appendix includes example documents to be leveraged by those looking to execute the prioritization process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

CIE Curriculum Guide (V.2.0)

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Curriculum Guide offers a comprehensive framework, guidance, and resources for integrating CIE into university-level engineering programs and related educational activities. The primary goal is to help educators adopt CIE principles into their teaching to produce future engineers and technicians who understand digital risks in modern engineered systems, thereby addressing the nation’s infrastructure resilience needs. This guide outlines practical integration examples, links to resources to accelerate CIE adoption, and shares insights from partner academic institutions on various implementation strategies. CIE is a framework for embedding engineered controls that mitigate the impact of cyber-attacks in any cyber-physical system used in critical energy infrastructure and other sectors. Developed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), the National Cyber-Informed Engineering Strategy emphasizes embedding CIE into formal education, training, and credentialing. This guide supports this strategic objective by providing examples of integrating CIE concepts into engineering curricula, from class activities to new courses and certificate programs. The importance of educating cyber-informed engineers is underscored by the evolving cybersecurity threats facing engineered systems. As industrial control systems (ICS) increasingly incorporate digital technologies, the responsibility for security extends to both cyber professionals and engineers. CIE addresses critical gaps in designing and protecting physical systems with digital components against cyber risks, ensuring engineers consider digital risk throughout the engineering design lifecycle. Currently, engineering education does not routinely include cyber-informed principles, highlighting a gap in addressing modern engineering system risks. This guide advocates for updating engineering curricula to include digital risk management as a fundamental element. By doing so, future engineers will be equipped to design resilient systems that mitigate digital risks from the outset. Through this guide, engineering faculty can integrate CIE into their curricula, bridging the gap between digital risk and engineering. This approach prepares a cyber-informed workforce capable of safeguarding the cyber-physical systems crucial to national security and public welfare. By embedding CIE into education and training, institutions can produce engineers and technicians who can effectively mitigate cyber impacts throughout the engineering design lifecycle, resulting in more secure critical infrastructures.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivity Analysis for the Component Design App: Analysis of Success Assured Data

A new tool has been developed to perform variance-based global sensitivity analysis (VBGSA) on data from a set-based concurrent engineering software called Success Assured (SA). The tool is part of a digital component design app, which is currently in production as an Accelerated Digital Engineering Pathfinder at Sandia National Laboratories. When working with complex digital models, it is important to understand relationships between inputs and outputs, i.e., how “sensitive” model outputs are to changes in model inputs. After extensive research and trials of various sensitivity analysis methods, it was determined that estimation of Sobol’ indices for VBGSA with Monte Carlo simulation, paired with simple surrogate models, produces the best results for SA data. This tool increases understanding of SA models and streamlines the creation of SA datasets. This report details the methodology and implementation of this sensitivity analysis tool so others can understand it and implement it.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mechanical Solutions Scan Report

Power lines, poles, and towers are the backbone of the United States (U.S.) electric-power grid. These transmission and distribution networks route electricity from generator to loads. The characteristics of these routes are rapidly changing -- trending towards decentralized renewable generation, electric heating, vehicle charging, and large data-center loads. Coupled with aging infrastructure and the increased frequency of extreme weather events, there is concern about the future reliability and transmission capacity of conductors and adjacent components. This scan report seeks to provide an overview of mechanical solutions to challenges caused by extreme weather events associated with components of transmission and distribution infrastructure, including conductor heat sag, ice accumulation, wind, and wildfire. Many options could increase transmission capacity or reliability, and these are at various stages of technological readiness. Some have only been lab tested, while some have been widely deployed in the U.S. or overseas for decades. The solution categories and providers featured in this report are intended to be comprehensive at the time of publication and to serve as a reference for decision-makers concerned about transmission and distribution reliability. There are two other categories of large, complex solutions, which are not covered in this report: replacing existing conductors with advanced conductors and implementing digital grid enhancing technologies. A separate scan report titled “Advanced Conductor Scan Report,” which discusses advanced carbon-core conductors, was published by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in 2023. Information on digital technologies, such as dynamic line ratings, power-flow controllers, and other power electronics and communications-based devices, can be found on the Grid- Enhancing Technologies landing page. Mechanical grid-enhancing technologies, or solutions covered in this report, often do not require full equipment replacement and do not rely on digital components. Mechanical technologies are overlooked because they may be older, simpler, or seemingly “more obvious” than digital or carbon-core technologies. However, it is wise to consider mechanical solutions in a thorough evaluation of grid enhancing technology solutions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DER Digital Supply Chain Gap Analysis

Solar photovoltaic (PV) cybersecurity is a growing field of research. As deployments of solar PV have increased, cyber risk has also increased. Utility solar PV installations, however, are not required to comply with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) plan unless they meet a minimum generation threshold of 75 MW. Individual residential-scale solar PV deployments will not meet that generation threshold and are therefore excluded from the NERC CIP requirements. With most solar installations less than 75 MW, solar PV has been deployed with minimal oversight and highly variable cybersecurity maturity. The resources that comprise the digital supply chain can include software, code, data, and other digital components. But as clean energy technologies advance, cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities continue to evolve and grow in sophistication. Supply chain cybersecurity represents a critical area for ensuring safe operations as the U.S. moves toward a clean energy future.

cybersecurity↗

Expansion of the Fuel Motion Monitoring System

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) Fuel Motion Monitoring System (FMMS) is a diagnostic tool used to visualize the movement and location of fuel within the nuclear reactor during transient experiments. TREAT is designed to test the behavior of nuclear fuel under accident conditions, such as a rapid power increase. The TREAT FMMS, also referred to as the “hodoscope” because of the system’s massive steel collimator component, is located on the North beam port of the reactor. While the FMMS system is capable of incorporating a total of 360 sensors, initial refurbishment efforts resulted in a array of 96 fast neutron detectors. This initial array was configured to provide a narrow (2 channels) full-length view of experiment vessels with an extended 4-channel–wide region in the center of the array capable of providing a full view of all initially planned experiments. Planning and efforts to expand the FMMS array began immediately following the restart of TREAT. An additional 96 detectors were evaluated, characterized, and prepared for installation at TREAT during the summer of 2018. Unfortunately, funding reductions forced the project towards a 5-year hiatus. In October of 2023 funding from the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Science User Facilities enabled the expansion to recommence. This report serves to document the activities performed to expand the FMMS detector array to 192 channels in order to provide a broader view of the larger and more sophisticated test capsules currently planned for future irradiation in the TREAT reactor. This expansion also included doubling the data acquisition capability, addressing the new heat load on the system, and synchronizing the time for all digital components.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Obstacles to Practical Digital Supply Chain Risk Management in the Energy Sector

Cyber supply chain risk management (C-SCRM) programs must consider operations that depend on the lifecycles of digital components such as hardware, firmware, software, and services. We integrate academic literature, historical incidents, and existing standards to identify obstacles faced by C-SCRM programs.

Business Process Management & Integration↗

Gap Analysis of Supply Chain Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources

A supply chain is the combination of the ecosystem of resources needed to design, manufacture, and distribute a product. In the context of supply chain cybersecurity, the resources that directly influence this ecosystem include software, data, and/or other digital components. Compromised equipment or software in the supply chain may lead to attacks such as financial loss; denial of service; a breach of confidential or proprietary information from a company, its customers, or its suppliers; ransomware that denies operation of automated equipment for payment; and malicious control actions that could damage equipment and endanger personnel. Currently 60.8% of US energy comes from fossil fuels, 18.9% comes from nuclear energy, and the last 20.1% comes from renewable sources. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission order FERC 2222 and Executive Order 14017 on America's Supply Chains are important milestones for safely expanding generation from renewable energy and achieving the goal of a decarbonized U.S. energy sector by 2035. This report analyzes gaps and opportunities in the supply chain currently available to the renewable energy sector, to help stakeholders formulate a coordinated response.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Supply Chain Cybersecurity Recommendations for Solar Photovoltaics

Solar photovoltaic (PV) cybersecurity is a growing field of research. As deployments of solar PV has increased, cyber risk has also increased. However, utility solar PV installations are not required to comply with North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) unless they meet a minimum generation threshold of 75 Megawatts (MW). Individual residential scale solar PV deployments will not meet that generation threshold and are therefore excluded from NERC CIP requirements. With most solar installations below 75MW, solar PV has been deployed with minimal oversight and highly variable cybersecurity maturity. The resources that make up the digital supply chain can include software, code, data, as well as other digital components. However as clean energy technology advances, cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities continue to evolve and grow in sophistication. Solar PV faces a unique challenge in which it can be deployed in residential buildings and purchased by a consumer directly. This makes the supply chain of PV a unique challenge, where responsible parties for cybersecurity vary widely depending on the type of solar PV being deployed. Supply chain cybersecurity for solar PV represents a critical area for ensuring safe operations as the U.S. moves towards a clean energy future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exploring the process-structure-property relationship of Aerosol Deposition to phosphor coatings for non-contact thermometry

Full-field, multi-measurand diagnostics provide rich validation data necessary to improve the product life cycle time of nuclear safety components. Thermophosphor digital image correlation (TP+DIC) is a method of simultaneously measuring strain and temperature fields using patterned phosphor coatings deposited with aerosol deposition (AD). While TP+DIC produces a functional diagnostic, the coating’s reproducibility and the effect of the patterned features on the inferred temperature remains uncharacterized. This NSR&D project provided the opportunity to study two areas: 1) the tunability and repeatability of aerosol deposition and 2) the robustness of aerosol deposition phosphor on deforming substrates. The first area explores the process-property relationship of parameters elucidating the significance of each on the coating. The second area explores the relationship between the features’ characteristics (namely thickness) and the phosphor emission and inferred temperature. Together, the results will lead to the improved accuracy and functionality of TP+DIC for qualification testing of nuclear safety components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of HPC based phase field simulations tool for modification of alloy morphology to enhance material properties during additive manufacturing (AM) process

Currently, additive manufacturing (AM) technology is extensively used to manufacture aerospace components because of the unique advantages of the technique in producing custom designs, complex geometries in a near-net fashion that significantly reduces the manufacturing cost, and improved energy efficiency. However, the thermodynamic properties of existing aerospace alloys and the thermal conditions that prevail in most of the powder-bed based additive manufacturing processes lead to undesirable columnar / columnar-dendritic microstructures that promote solidification cracking during the process, and the development of anisotropy in the mechanical properties of the as-built components. Time consuming, energy-intensive post AM treatments are required to recover the mechanical properties of the wrought components for which the existing alloy compositions were designed for. However, novel alloy compositions, that exploit the AM thermal conditions to produce fine, equiaxed grain structures in the as-built condition, with mechanical properties equal to or exceeding those of the wrought work-horse alloy, Ti-6Al-4V has recently been demonstrated in Ti-Cu alloys. Significant energy savings up to 66% can be obtained for a typical aerospace component through digitally designing the AM process, process parameters, and alloy composition. The current project focused on developing a fundamental understanding of the evolution of the columnar to equiaxed transition (CET) occurring during solidification under AM thermal conditions in Ti-Cu and Ti-Cu-X alloys using high-fidelity phase field (PF) simulations using the leadership class computing facilities that exist in the national laboratories. The simulations were able to capture the effect of alloy and process conditions on CET, and clearly showed the beneficial effect of a ternary solute addition to Ti-Cu binary alloys on CET. The simulations indicated that bulk nucleation in the liquid ahead of the solidifying epitaxial front was promoted by a large, transient, thermal undercooling promoted by the mismatch between the growth rate of the dendrite tips in the epitaxial front and the imposed solidification rate. AM experiments performed at Raytheon Technologies Research Center using the same thermal conditions used in the PF simulations indicated the formation of equiaxed grains, although the grain size was bigger than the ones reported in the literature. On the other hand, the equiaxed grain size predicted by PF simulations were smaller than the grain size of Ti-Cu alloys reported in the literature. The industry will follow up the existing work in a future program that would involve further optimization of the process for the Ti-Cu-X alloys to demonstrate the application of the process and the alloy to a specific aerospace component.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electric Grid Security (EGS) FY24 Annual Report

Sandia’s Electric Grid Security program advances a national vision of a secure, resilient, and affordable electric system for all users. Our achievements reflect a strategic approach combining technology development; modeling, simulation, and data analytics; and partnered demonstrations and outreach to further the adoption of advanced grid and storage technologies. Our FY24 efforts leverage the strengths of our partnerships—spanning Sandia’s core science and technology competencies as well as external technology leaders—to develop the solutions today which enable the grid of tomorrow. Key accomplishments in this report that support our strategy span our technical program areas and include: • The advancement of energy storage technologies, including creation of a national Long Duration Energy Storage Consortium; • Applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhanced grid operations and planning; • Development of solid-state power conversion technologies and a new medium-voltage research lab; • New technologies to assess wildfire vulnerabilities and mitigate potential impacts; • Advanced applications of new cybersecurity technologies with industry partners; • Contributions to understanding the impacts of electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances on grid components; and • Digital twin development for hybrid microgrids with multiple generators, storage, and loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

FY25 Electric Grid Security Annual Report

Sandia’s Electric Grid Security program advances a national vision of energy dominance and accessibility, while applying our national security -emphasis on ensuring of a secure, resilient, and affordable electric system for all users. Our achievements reflect a strategic approach combining technology development; modeling, simulation, and data analytics; and partnered demonstrations and outreach to further the adoption of advanced grid and storage technologies. Our FY25 efforts leverage the strengths of our partnerships—spanning Sandia’s core science and technology competencies as well as external technology leaders—to develop the solutions today which enable the grid of tomorrow. Key accomplishments in this report that support our strategy span our technical program areas and include: • New open-source analytical tools for systems -level planning and optimization, including significant advances to the QuESt analytical environment; • Further advancement of artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhanced grid operations and planning as we rise to the challenge of new large loads; • Development of solid-state power conversion technologies and a new medium-voltage research lab; • New technologies to assess wildfire vulnerabilities and mitigate potential impacts; • Advanced applications of new cybersecurity technologies with industry partners; • Contributions to understanding the impacts of electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances on grid components; and • Digital twin development for hybrid microgrids with multiple generators, storage, and loads. This report indicates key areas of research and engagement and summarizes the impact of Sandia’s contributions through notable accomplishments, journal publications, patents, and technical conferences and presentations. It is provided with the hope that readers discover ways we can further team to create our modern grid and apply the outcomes of our efforts. The bulk of work described herein is funded by several offices within the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE), including the Office of Electricity (OE); Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER); former offices such as the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the Grid Deployment Office (GDO), the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED), and other key programs at USDOE. As we continue to state in these annual reports, the contributors to our successes are too numerous to name here, though our team wishes to express our deep gratitude to the numerous program and project sponsors at the US Department of Energy, who often function equally as technical collaborators; our many partners in industry, academia, utilities, and other national labs; and fellow researchers and business partners at Sandia whose leadership and creativity have enabled the accomplishments described herein.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗