Diminishing Returns: How Many GNSS-RO Observations are Enough?
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Nikki Privé↗
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Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments
Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The non-Riemannian nature of perceptual color space
Significance For over 100 y, the scientific community has adhered to a paradigm, introduced by Riemann and furthered by Helmholtz and Schrodinger, where perceptual color space is a three-dimensional Riemannian space. This implies that the distance between two colors is the length of the shortest path that connects them. We show that a Riemannian metric overestimates the perception of large color differences because large color differences are perceived as less than the sum of small differences. This effect, called diminishing returns, cannot exist in a Riemannian geometry. Consequently, we need to adapt how we model color differences, as the current standard, Δ E , recognized by the International Commission for Weights and Measures, does not account for diminishing returns in color difference perception.
Bujack, Roxana↗
Design Considerations of a Coordinative Demand Charge Mitigation Strategy
This paper presents a coordinative demand charge mitigation (DCM) strategy for reducing electricity consumption during system peak periods. Available DCM resources include batteries, diesel generators, controllable loads, and conservation voltage reduction. All resources are directly controlled by load serving entities. A mixed integer linear programming based energy management algorithm is developed to optimally coordinate of DCM resources considering the load payback effect. To better capture system peak periods, two different kinds of load forecast are used: the day-ahead load forecast and the peak-hour probability forecast. Five DCM strategies are compared for reconciling the discrepancy between the two forecasting results. The DCM strategies are tested using actual utility data. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively mitigate the demand charge while preventing the system peak from being shifted to the payback hours. We also identify the diminishing return effect, which can help load serving entities optimize the size of their DCM resources.
Hu, Rongxing↗
High temperature stabilization of ultrafine grain tungsten alloys through synergistic compositional complexities
Thermally-stabilized fine-grained microstructures in tungsten provide a pathway to harnessing enhanced properties such as a reduced ductile-to-brittle transition temperature and improved strength while mitigating the adverse effects of grain growth and recrystallization. Here, in this study, we employ a material design strategy that relies on grain boundary segregation in the nanocrystalline state driven by alloy thermodynamics balanced with impurity scavenging through in situ formation of kinetically-stabilizing metal carbides. A W-Ti-Cr alloy is designed through lattice Monte Carlo methods and subsequently synthesized in a single-phase nanocrystalline state, which upon annealing, evolves into an ultrafine grained microstructure containing chromium grain boundary segregation collectively with a dispersed TiX (X=C,O) phase through the reaction of titanium with carbon and oxygen impurities. In situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction experiments demonstrate that increased Ti promotes stabilization across a larger temperature range but with diminishing returns above 10 at.% Ti. Long-term stability was confirmed through the retention of the ultrafine grained microstructure for a total of 8 days (192 h) at 1300 °C without grain/carbide growth and/or recrystallization. Our results demonstrate that, through strategic tailoring of composition and microstructure, one can harness the benefits of both thermodynamic and kinetic stabilization mechanisms, opening pathways for future alloy formulations that expand the window of stability.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Technoeconomic assessment of hydrogen cogeneration via high temperature steam electrolysis with a light-water reactor
Increased electricity production from renewable energy resources, coupled with low natural gas (NG) prices, has caused existing light-water reactors (LWRs) to experience diminishing returns from the electricity market. This reduction in revenue is forcing LWRs to consider alternative revenue streams, such as introduction hydrogen production or desalination, to remain profitable. This paper performs a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) regarding the viability of retrofitting existing pressurized-water reactors (PWRs) to produce green hydrogen (H 2 ) via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). Such an integration would allow nuclear facilities to expand into additional markets that may be more profitable in the long term and eliminate CO 2 emissions from the hydrogen production process. Here, to accommodate such an integration, a detailed single market levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and multimarket analyses were conducted of HTSE process operation, requirements, costing, and flexibility. Alongside this costing analysis, market analyses were conducted on the electric and hydrogen markets in the PJM interconnect. Utilizing a novel stochastic, dispatch optimization approach results suggest that a positive gain is achievable, and by operating in multiple markets, the nuclear facility can avoid the sale of electricity during times of low electricity market pricing, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on the high electricity market pricing. It should be noted that the analysis conducted is a differential cash flow analysis and, as such, does not present profit levels. LCOH analysis results demonstrate the potential exists to produce hydrogen at a cost as low as $1.20/kg. This price is lower than traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) allowing nuclear based hydrogen production to disrupt the existing hydrogen production market.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?
Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Implications of pond reliability on the techno-economic and life cycle environmental impacts of algal biofuels
Despite extensive research on algal bioproducts, there is limited understanding of how pond contamination affects their economics and environmental impacts. This work compared the costs and environmental impacts of algal biofuels across different pond failure scenarios. Pond failure was simulated by a reliability model based on pond mean-time-to-failure (MTTF). The reliability model was integrated with a process model to analyze the impacts of pond failure on the operations of algal farms and biorefineries. Process model outputs were used for techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment to determine the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), global warming potential (GWP), and freshwater consumption impacts of algal biofuels for five MTTF scenarios of 20, 54, 80,120, and 350 days, assuming an average mean-time-to-reset of 7 days. Results show that higher MTTFs reduce the cost and environmental impact of algal biofuels, but with diminishing returns. The average MFSPs for the 20-day, 54-day, and 350-day MTTF scenarios were $\$3.52$, $\$2.54$, and $\$2.10$ per liter of gasoline equivalent, respectively. The GWP for the same scenarios were 131, 96, and 83 g CO 2eq MJ –1 , respectively. This study highlights the significant impact of larger seed trains, required under low MTTFs, on the costs and greenhouse gas emissions of algal biofuels. Moreover, the work shows that algal biofuels fail to be cost-competitive with conventional fuels, even when productivities are increased from 17 to 35 g m –2 d –1 . Furthermore, this work is the first to explore the implications of pond failure on the sustainability of algal biofuels and provides valuable insights to algae farmers on how to reduce the costs and financial risks of algal cultivation through process design and pond management strategies.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Effect of stoichiometry and hydration level on water domain size and transport in poly(aryl piperidinium) alkaline anion-exchange membranes
Alkaline water electrolysis holds promise in decarbonizing the global economy by enabling renewable hydrogen production with non-precious group metal catalysts. Anion exchange membranes are an important component of alkaline water electrolyzers and would ideally be durable while allowing for high hydroxide conductivity. The poly(aryl piperidinium) (PAP) class of polymers has attracted recent interest due to their good mechanical robustness and high ionic conductivity. Here, in this work, we perform atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of several PAP polymers at experimentally relevant hydration levels and polymer ion exchange capacities (IECs) to gain nanoscale insight into their properties and to help elucidate the trade-offs that result from tuning the IECs through the polymer stoichiometry. Our MD-predicted macroscopic polymer properties were found to be in good agreement with experimentally available polymer swelling ratios, water-occupied volumes, X-ray scattering, and ionic conductivities. The models show that for hydration levels greater than 8H 2 O per cation a single water cluster will form that percolates through the system. The growth in water cluster size results in large polymer swelling, the creation of larger channels with widths of 7 Å or larger, and nanophase separation between the hydrophilic domains and the polymer with characteristic length scales of approximately 20–30 Å. The experimentally observed lack of a strong X-ray scattering peak at low wavevectors can be explained by a cancellation between the polymer-polymer/water-water and polymer-water correlations and not a loss in nanophase separation. The overlap in coordination environments of the hydroxide oxygen and polymer nitrogen atoms implies that vehicular diffusion between cationic groups could play a role in hydroxide transport. The polymers' hydroxide and water diffusion constants increase by approximately an order of magnitude between hydration levels of 8 and 20H 2 O per cation. However, there are diminishing returns in hydroxide diffusion constant once the IEC exceeds 2.4 meq/g.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks
This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Experimental study of energy-dependent angular broadening of MeV electron beams for high-resolution imaging in thick samples
In scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), spatial resolution is primarily influenced by the projected size of the electron probe within the specimen. In thin samples, a large semi-convergence angle enables a tightly focused beam and sub-nanometer resolution. However, in thick specimens, resolution is fundamentally limited by transverse beam broadening from multiple large-angle scattering events—for example, a probe with 10 mrad angular divergence can broaden by ∼100 nm over a 10 μm path. Since this broadening scales inversely with beam energy, MeV-STEM offers a promising route for high-resolution imaging in thick materials. To quantitatively assess this effect, we performed high-precision measurements at UCLA’s PEGASUS beamline, characterizing beam divergence and intensity profiles for 3–8 MeV electrons transmitted through a wedged-silicon sample of varying thickness. Our results reconcile discrepancies among analytical models and validate Monte Carlo simulations. Here, we find that increasing beam energy from 3.0 to 5.8 MeV reduces angular broadening by a factor of 2.6, with diminishing returns observed at 7.6 MeV. These findings provide a quantitative framework for optimizing MeV-STEM parameters in high-resolution imaging of thick biological and microelectronic specimens, and for guiding beam energy selection in other advanced imaging modes beyond STEM.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Shallow Rate-Redox Potential Scaling in Aqueous Molecular Oxygen Reduction Electrocatalysis Across a Family of Iron Macrocycles
Rate-overpotential scaling relationships have been employed widely to understand trends in oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysis by dissolved metal macrocycles in organic electrolytes. Similar scaling relationships remain unknown for surface-adsorbed ORR electrocatalysts in the acidic aqueous environments germane to proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. Herein, we examine ORR catalysis in aqueous perchloric acid media for a structurally diverse array of iron macrocycle complexes adsorbed on Vulcan carbon black. The macrocycles encompass Fe– N 4 , Fe–N 2 N' 2 and Fe–N x C 4-x motifs bearing pyrrolic, pyridinic, and N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC) moieties in the primary ligation sphere, giving rise to a 670 mV range in Fe(III/II) redox potentials, E Fe(III/II) . Experimental Tafel data in the micropolarization regime were extrapolated to the E Fe(III/II) to furnish estimated per-site-normalized current density (j per-site ) values that span ~4.6 orders of magnitude across the family of compounds. Despite the structural diversity of this family of compounds, extrapolated j per-site values correlate with the Fe(III/II) redox potentials in a roughly log-linear fashion with a shallow scaling factor of approximately 145 mV/decade. Further, these findings highlight that negative shifts in E Fe(III/II) lead to diminishing returns in catalytic rate promotion and suggest that changes to the primary ligating environment in a macrocycle are insufficient to break fundamental rate-potential scaling relationships in aqueous ORR catalysis. Together these studies motivate the further development of higher-potential iron complexes that employ motifs beyond the equatorial ligation plane to enhance ORR catalysis.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Cambered Bipyridyl Ligand with Extended Aryl System Enables Electrochemical Reduction of Carbon Dioxide and Bicarbonate by Mn(bpy)(CO) 3 Br-type Catalyst Immobilized on Carbon Nanotubes
Heterogeneous materials containing molecular catalytic sites show promise for electrocatalytic reduction of CO 2 to energy-enriched carbon products. Interactions between the catalyst and the heterogeneous support increasingly are recognized as important in governing product selectivity and rate. Recent work on Mn(R-bpy)(CO) 3 Br type catalysts immobilized on multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) demonstrated control of electrocatalytic behavior with steric modification of the molecular catalyst. Phenyl groups installed in the 4,4' positions of the bipyridine ligand (ph-bpy) maximized performance through π–π interactions with the MWCNT support. Herein we report the outcome of extending the ligand π system with Mn(nap-bpy)(CO) 3 Br (nap-bpy = 4,4'-di(naphthalen-1-yl)-2,2'-bipyridine) and Mn(pyr-bpy)(CO) 3 Br (pyr-bpy = 4,4'-di(pyren-1-yl)-2,2'-bipyridine) immobilized on MWCNT. We demonstrate exceptional electrocatalysis with Mn(nap-bpy)(CO) 3 Br/MWCNT (FE CO > 92%; J CO = 16.5 mA/cm 2 ) and find that this catalyst electrochemically reduces bicarbonate in the absence of deliberately added CO 2 at a remarkable overall selectivity of >80% for carbon products (FE HCOO – = 52% and FE CO = 29%). We show diminishing returns to simply adding aromatic character to the bipyridyl ligand with Mn(pyr-bpy)(CO) 3 Br/MWCNT and observe a unique cambering of the Mn(nap-bpy)(CO) 3 Br bipyridyl ligand that we believe enables selective catalysis. Mechanistic studies were carried out on Mn(nap-bpy)(CO) 3 Br/MWCNT using a novel thin-film infrared spectroelectrochemical (IR-SEC) technique. These experiments observe the immobilized Mn(nap-bpy)(CO) 3 Br undergo single electron reduction to a Mn-centered radical that binds CO 2 in a reduction-coupled process.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Global relationships between crop diversity and nutritional stability
Nutritional stability – a food system’s capacity to provide sufficient nutrients despite disturbance – is an important, yet challenging to measure outcome of diversified agriculture. Using 55 years of data across 184 countries, we assemble 22,000 bipartite crop-nutrient networks to quantify nutritional stability by simulating crop and nutrient loss in a country, and assess its relationship to crop diversity across regions, over time and between imports versus in country production. We find a positive, saturating relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability across countries, but also show that over time nutritional stability remained stagnant or decreased in all regions except Asia. These results are attributable to diminishing returns on crop diversity, with recent gains in crop diversity among crops with fewer nutrients, or with nutrients already in a country’s food system. Finally, imports are positively associated with crop diversity and nutritional stability, indicating that many countries’ nutritional stability is market exposed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Exploration of cross-beam energy transfer mitigation constraints for designing an ignition-scale direct-drive inertial confinement fusion driver
The compression of direct-drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF) targets is strongly impacted by cross-beam energy transfer (CBET), a laser-plasma instability that limits ablation pressure by redirecting laser energy outward and that is projected to be mitigated by laser bandwidth. Here, we explore various CBET mitigation constraints to guide the design of future ICF facilities. First, we find that the flat, Gaussian, and Lorentzian spectral shapes have similar CBET mitigation properties, and a flat shape with nine spectral lines is a good surrogate for what can be obtained with other spectral shapes. Then, we conduct a comprehensive study across energy scales and ignition designs. 3D hydrodynamic simulations are used to derive an analytical model for the expected CBET mitigation as a function of laser and plasma parameters. From this model, we study the bandwidth requirements of conventional and shock ignition designs across four different energy scales and find that they require between 0.5 and 3±0.2% relative bandwidth. Further, best mitigation is achieved when the beam radius over critical radius R b /R c is kept low during the drive while the plasma temperature is kept high. In a steady state, we find that the bandwidth required to mitigate 85% of CBET scales as (R b /R c ) 2.15 L n –0.58 I 0.7 , where L n is the density scale length, and I the laser intensity. Finally, we find that the chamber beam port layout does not influence CBET mitigation. In the case of a driver using many monochromatic beamlets, we find that ~10 beamlets per port is required, with diminishing returns above ~20.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias
The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Process-based balance of system cost modeling for offshore wind power plants in the United States
This paper describes the development of a process-based and open-source balance of system cost model that provides the capability to evaluate both existing and novel offshore wind technologies. Individual design and installation steps are represented with bottom-up engineering models that compute times and costs associated with the process; furthermore, operational constraints are assigned to each process so that delays caused by weather and presence of marine mammals may be accounted for in the overall project timeline. The model structure, assumptions, inputs, and results are vetted with industry partners and compared against actual projects for validation. Installation times show reasonable agreement with real data. Project cost sensitivities are investigated to compute the system-level impact of different design choices. First, individual vessel efficiencies are computed for varying numbers of installation vessels and weather time series to show the diminishing returns of more than two feeder barges. Then, array cable capital costs and installation times are determined for a representative project with different turbine sizes. These values quantify the cost-benefit tradeoffs and show a net-cost savings of decreasing numbers of turbines, increased turbine spacing, and fewer turbine terminations. These results demonstrate that the balance of system model features the accuracy, functionality, and accessibility to serve as the foundation for a wide range of analyses to identify cost reduction potentials for offshore wind energy in the United States.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks
Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗