Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC)”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Adjoint DSMC for nonlinear spatially-homogeneous Boltzmann equation with a general collision model

We derive an adjoint method for the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for the spatially homogeneous Boltzmann equation with a general collision law. This generalizes our previous results in Caflisch et al., which was restricted to the case of Maxwell molecules, for which the collision rate is constant. The main difficulty in generalizing the previous results is that a rejection sampling step is required in the DSMC algorithm in order to handle the variable collision rate. We find a new term corresponding to the so-called score function in the adjoint equation and a new adjoint Jacobian matrix capturing the dependence of the collision parameter on the velocities. The new formula works for a much more general class of collision models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A lumped particle direct simulation Monte-Carlo method combined with the collisional-radiative model for simulations of non-equilibrium laser-induced plasma plumes

Collisional plasma plumes induced by laser irradiation of material targets exhibit large variations in local density as well as ionization and excitation states, making purely hydrodynamic or kinetic simulations inaccurate or infeasible. To address this challenge and capture non-equilibrium effects in laser-induced plasma plumes at arbitrary degrees of ionization, we develop a hybrid computational approach that combines the kinetic direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method with a collisional-radiative model (CRM). This ℓDSMC-CRM approach utilizes a lumped particle method to represent minor fractions of excited ions in particle-based simulations and a special coarse-graining technique for atomic spectra and photoionization rates, ensuring numerical convergence at reduced computational cost. The hybrid approach is applied to simulate spatially homogeneous relaxation as well as one- and two-dimensional expansions of plasma plumes induced by irradiation of a copper target by a nanosecond laser pulse in a vacuum or background gas. The comparison with an equilibrium model, where local Saha-Boltzmann equilibrium is enforced, shows that the non-equilibrium effects play a dominant role. The equilibrium model can fail to predict the flow structure and strongly underestimate the degree of absorption of laser radiation by the plume. The ℓDSMC-CRM approach is validated against experimental data demonstrating reasonable agreement with the experimental electron density and temperature, while the equilibrium model is found to dramatically underestimate electron density and temperature. The flexibility of the ℓDSMC-CRM approach allows for its seamless integration into existing DSMC frameworks, making it a valuable tool for high-fidelity plasma modeling in laser-material interactions, laser-based manufacturing, and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An improved stochastic weighted particle method for boundary driven flows

Here, the stochastic weighted particle method (SWPM) is a generalization of the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method where particle weights are variable and dynamic. SWPM is backed by a strong theoretical foundation but has not been critically evaluated for problems of practical interest. A thorough assessment of SWPM for boundary-driven flows reveals significant numerical artifacts near the boundary, notably a diverging heat flux. To correct the boundary heat flux, two modifications to SWPM are proposed: separated grouping and a spatially-dependent weight transfer function. To gauge the relative efficiency of SWPM in comparison to DSMC, a high-Mach-number wheel flow which forms a strong density gradient is also simulated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adaptive simulations enable computational design of electron beam processing of nanomaterials with supersonic micro-jet precursor

Focused Electron Beam Induced Processing (FEBIP) is a powerful tool for the “direct-write” of nanomaterials with the possibility of atomistic control on suspended 2D material substrates. FEBIP capabilities have been significantly expanded by using a localized jet-based delivery of precursors, and especially when a thermally energized supersonic micro-jet enhances the delivery of mass flux along with controlling the far-from-equilibrium thermodynamic state of adsorbed adatoms. The possibilities of growing nanomaterials with “dialed-in” composition with ultra-high growth rates and aspect ratios up to 100:1 have been demonstrated using the supersonic micro-jet-FEBIP. Bringing this scientific discovery to the level of maturity required for practical applications in additive nanomanufacturing requires simulation tools that are capable of capturing the complex flow physics of micro-jet-substrate interactions that bridge a wide range of flow regimes from the high-density gas micro-jet expanding into the vacuum environment of FEBIP. To address this significant computational challenge, a new approach has been developed and described in this work for a multiscale adaptive DSMC (Direct Simulation Monte Carlo) algorithm to predict the micro-jet gas dynamics in an FEBIP environment, spanning the full range of flow regimes from low Knudsen (Kn) number O(0.01) continuum flow to high Kn of O(10) for the molecular flow within a unified computational framework. Here, the fundamental principles of the adaptive DSMC algorithm are described, its viability as a DSMC technique is demonstrated, and computational improvements for the benchmark cases are discussed in the context of advancing 3D nanofabrication with FEBIP. Ultimately, combining the first principle simulations via adaptive DSMC with the complementary experimental data will enable the creation of the powerful CAD tools for in silico design and optimal operation of micro-jet-FEBIP.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Molecular-gas-dynamics simulations of turbulent Couette flow over a mean-free-path-scale permeable substrate

Here we report flow statistics and visualizations from molecular-gas-dynamics simulations using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for turbulent Couette flow in a minimal domain where the lower wall is replaced by an idealized permeable fibrous substrate representative of thermal-protection-system materials for which the Knudsen number is O(10 -1 ). Comparisons are made with smooth-wall DSMC simulations and smooth-wall direct numerical simulations (DNS) of the Navier-Stokes equations for the same conditions. Roughness, permeability, and noncontinuum effects are assessed. In the range of Reynolds numbers considered herein, the scalings of the skin friction on the permeable substrate and of the mean flow within the substrate suggest that they are dominated by viscous effects. While the regenerative cycle characteristic of smooth-wall turbulence remains intact for all cases considered, we observe that the near-wall velocity fluctuations are modulated by the permeable substrate with a wavelength equal to the pore spacing. Additionally, the flow within the substrate shows significant rarefaction effects, resulting in an apparent permeability that is 13% larger than the intrinsic permeability. In contrast, the smooth-wall DSMC and DNS simulations exhibit remarkably good agreement for the statistics examined, despite the Knudsen number based on the viscous length scale being as large as O(10 -1 ). This latter result is at variance with classical estimates for the breakdown of the continuum assumption and calls for further investigations into the interaction of noncontinuum effects and turbulence.

42 ENGINEERING↗

OpenEdge: A collaborative, open-source, multi-purpose direct simulation Monte Carlo for plasma simulation in magnetic fusion environments

OpenEdge is a collaborative, open-source, object-oriented Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, designed specifically for plasma simulations in magnetic fusion environments. Here, the code features include advanced structures, robust capabilities, and an effective parallelization strategy, all of which significantly enhance performance. It includes specialized modules for managing complex particle interactions, including collisions, ionization/recombination, and reflection/sputtering. Benchmarks and performance analyses have confirmed its efficiency and scalability. Versatile and adaptable, OpenEdge is applied across a broad spectrum of plasma-material interaction studies and charged particle transport in various fusion research settings.

Boundary plasma↗

Near-continuum, hypersonic oxygen flow over a double cone simulated by direct simulation Monte Carlo informed from quantum chemistry

A large-scale, fully resolved direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) computation of a non-equilibrium, reactive flow of pure oxygen over a double cone is presented. Under the simulated near-continuum conditions, the computational demands are shown to be significant because of the wide range of length scales that must be resolved. Therefore, robust grid adaption capabilities and efficient parallelization of the Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA) code that is utilized in this work are essential. The thermochemical and transport collision models were selected for efficiency and simplicity. First-principles data, obtained from the highly accurate direct molecular simulation method, were used to inform the collision models’ parameters. Importantly, because SPARTA implements molecular collision models using collision-specific energies, the resulting macroscopic relaxation rates were evaluated a posteriori via zero-dimensional heat bath simulations. The comparisons of surface properties, namely heat flux and pressure, show very close agreement with previous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results. Differences with the measurements were found to be similar to the CFD simulations. The unresolved discrepancy with the measurements could be due to inconsistent free stream conditions with the actual experimental data or missing physical phenomena altogether, for example atomic and molecular oxygen electronically excited states, three-dimensional effects, or more complex gas–surface interactions. As shown in this work, the advantages of obtaining a DSMC particle solution for these flows reside in the method's ability to be directly informed from first principles and to seamlessly describe internal energy non-equilibrium for all modes. With the advent of exascale computing and beyond, particle methods will be an increasingly important tool to verify the validity of physical assumptions in reduced-order models via fully resolved, experimental-scale simulations, down to the level of molecular-level distributions.

Mechanics↗

Modeling rarefied gas chemistry with QuiPS, a novel quasi-particle method

The goal of this work is to build up the capability of quasi-particle simulation (QuiPS), a novel flow solver, such that it can adequately model the rarefied portion of an atmospheric reentry trajectory. Direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) is the conventional solver for such conditions, but struggles to resolve transient flows, trace species, and high-level internal energy states due to stochastic noise. Quasi-particle simulation (QuiPS) is a novel Boltzmann solver that describes a system with a discretized, truncated velocity distribution function. The resulting fixed-velocity, variable weight quasi-particles enable smooth variation of macroscopic properties. The distribution function description enables the use of a variance-reduced collision model, greatly minimizing expense near equilibrium. This work presents the addition of a neutral air chemistry model to QuiPS and some demonstrative 0D simulations. The explicit representation of internal distributions in QuiPS reveals some of the flaws in existing physics models. Overall, variance reduction, a key feature of QuiPS, can greatly reduce expense of multi-dimensional calculations, but is only cheaper when the gas composition is near chemical equilibrium.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scalable simulation of coupled adsorption and transport of methane in confined complex porous media with density preconditioning

The growing significance of shales and tight formations in the transition to less carbon-intensive and clean energy drives the research endeavor to understand the physics of gas flow within these systems. However, shales are composed of massively heterogeneous physical and chemical features. Most nano-sized pores connect to millimeter-scale fractures, leading to multiscale transport. These nano-scale pore throats demonstrate non-classical flow behavior, such as non-negligible slip velocities and adsorbed gas layers at the boundary. As a result, classical computational fluid dynamics models do not capture the physics. In this work, we develop a coupling scheme for the multiple-relaxation-time (MRT) lattice Boltzmann (LB) method that integrates the Peng-Robinson equation of state into a pseudo-potential interaction model to capture the physics of methane flow in irregular networks of channels that represent nano-scale porous media. We use atomistic simulations to calibrate and validate our model in slit nano-channels. We propose a preconditioning scheme to initialize the coupled transport and adsorption simulation of methane in complex porous media. The results of this implementation of LB agree with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. We then scale up the LB implementation through vectorization and indirect addressing. We parallelize it using Message Passing Interface (MPI) and OpenMP frameworks to simulate transport and adsorption in complex media with a million lattices. Additionally, we analyze the differences between coupled and transport-only simulations in two case studies and show that considering phase behavior, i.e., adsorption, can significantly change the flow behavior. This work constitutes an important step towards bridging the gap between molecular flow and system-scale behavior of complex disordered porous media.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Computational Study of a Cryopump Design for Fusion Exhaust Gas Purification Using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Cryopump-based direct internal recycling (DIR) of fusion fuel is an attractive prospect because it provides pumping of helium ash from a reactor along with separation of helium and other impurities from the fuel. Previous studies have demonstrated a continuously regenerating cryopump, referred to as the Snail pump, that separates helium ash from fusion fuel for reactor-relevant flow rates. Here, in this study, a conceptual cryopump was designed as a proof-of-principle study to target other impurities, besides helium ash, from the fusion exhaust that would complement the Snail pump. The impurity-removal cryopump consists of four sets of chevron fins, two sets operating at 80 K and the other two at 30 K. A computational study using direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was performed with a gas mixture of 96.5% D2, 2.0% He, and 0.5% each of CO2, N2, and CH4. In this configuration, 80 K chevron fin sets are capable of capturing CO2 and 30 K sets capable of capturing CO2, N2, and CH4. The computational study showed that the cryopump is capable of reducing the impurity content by more than two orders of magnitude from the flow.

Adhikari, Nirajan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Full 3D Kinetic Modeling and Quantification of Positive Streamer Evolution in an Azimuthally Swept Pin-to-Plane Wedge Geometry

Cathode-directed streamer evolution in near atmospheric air is modeled in 3D pin-to-plane geometries using a 3D kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code that simulates particle-particle collisions via the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Due to the computational challenges associated with a complete 360° volumetric domain, a practical alternative was achieved using a wedge domain and a range of azimuthal angles was explored (5°, 15°, 30°, and 45°) to study possible effects on the streamer growth and propagation due to the finite wedge angle. A DC voltage of 6 kV is administered to a hemispherical anode of radius 100 μm, with a planar cathode held at ground potential, generating an over-volted state with an electric field of 4 MV/m across a 1500 μm gap. The domain is seeded with an initial ion and electron density of 10 18 m -3 at 1 eV temperature confined to a spherical region of radius 100 μm centered at the tip of the anode. The air chemistry model [1] includes standard Townsend breakdown mechanisms (electron-neutral elastic, excitation, ionization, attachment, and detachment collision chemistry and secondary electron emission) as well as streamer mechanisms (photoionization and ion-neutral collisions) via tracking excited state neutrals which can then either quench via collisions or spontaneously emit a photon based on specific Einstein-A coefficients [2, 3]. In this work, positive streamer dynamics are formally quantified for each wedge angle in terms of electron velocity and density as temporal functions of coordinates r, Φ, and z. Applying a random plasma seed for each simulation, particles of interest are tracked with near femtosecond temporal resolution out to 1.4 ns and spatially binned. This process is repeated six times and results are averaged. Prior 2D studies have shown that the reduced electric field, E/n, can significantly impact streamer evolution [4]. We extend the analysis to 3D wedge geometries, to limit computational costs, and examine the wedge angle’s effect on streamer branching, propagation, and velocity. Results indicate that the smallest wedge angle that produced an acceptably converged solution is 30°. The potential effects that a mesh, when under-resolved with respect to the Debye length, can impart on streamer dynamics and numerical heating were not investigated, and we explicitly state here that the smallest cell size was approximately 10 times the minimum λ D in the streamer channel at late times. This constraint on cell size was the result of computational limitations on total mesh count.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computing dissipation for molecular-level turbulence simulations

A major difficulty in the analysis of molecular-level simulations is that macroscopic flow quantities are inherently noisy due to molecular fluctuations. An important example for turbulent flows is the kinetic energy dissipation rate. Traditionally, this quantity is calculated from gradients of the macroscopic velocity field, which exacerbates the noise problem. The inability to accurately compute the dissipation rate makes meaningful comparison of molecular-level and continuum simulation results a serious challenge. Herein, we extend previously developed coarse-graining theories to derive an exact molecular-level expression for the dissipation rate, which would circumvent the need to compute gradients of noisy fields. Although the exact expression cannot feasibly be implemented in Sandia’s direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code SPARTA, we utilize an approximate “hybrid” approach and compare it to the conventional gradient-based approach for planar Couette flow and the two-dimensional Taylor-Green vortex, demonstrating that the hybrid approach is significantly more accurate. Finally, we explore the possibility of adopting a Lagrangian approach to calculate the energy dissipation rate.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Dynamic population balance in molecular-level simulations of hypersonic flows

This report summarizes the work towards developing stochastic weighted particle methods (SWPM) for future application in hypersonic flows. Extensive changes to Sandia’s direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) solver, SPARTA (Stochastic Particle Real Time Analyzer), were made to enable the necessary particle splitting and reduction capabilities for SWPM. The results from one-dimensional Couette and Fourier flows suggest that SWPM can reproduce the correct transport for a large range of Knudsen numbers with adequate accuracy. The associated velocity and temperature profiles are in good agreement with DSMC. An issue with particle placement during particle number reduction, is identified, to which, a simple but effective solution based on minimizing the center of mass error is proposed. High Mach wheel flows are simulated using the SWPM and DSMC methods. SWPM is capable of providing nearly an order of magnitude increase in efficiency over DSMC while retaining high accuracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Velocity-Space Hybridization of Direct Simulation Monte Carlo and a Quasi-Particle Boltzmann Solver

This paper presents a new method for modeling rarefied gas flows based on hybridization of direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and discrete velocity method (DVM)-based quasi-particle representations of the velocity distribution function. It is aimed at improving the resolution of the tails of the distribution function (compared with DSMC) and computational efficiency (compared with DVM). Details of the method, such as the collision algorithm and the particle merging scheme, are discussed. The hybrid approach is applied to the study of noise in a Maxwellian distribution, computation of electron-impact ionization rate coefficient, as well as numerical simulation of a supersonic Couette flow. The hybrid-based solver is compared with pure DSMC and DVM approaches in terms of accuracy, computational speed, and memory use. It is shown that such a hybrid approach can provide a lower computational cost than a pure DVM approach, while being able to retain accuracy in modeling high-velocity tails of the distribution function. For problems where trace species have a significant impact on the flow physics, the proposed method is shown to be capable of providing better computational efficiency and accuracy compared with standard fixed-weight DSMC.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Neural-network based collision operators for the Boltzmann equation

Kinetic gas dynamics in rarefied and moderate-density regimes have complex behavior associated with collisional processes. These processes are generally defined by convolution integrals over a high-dimensional space (as in the Boltzmann operator), or require evaluating complex auxiliary variables (as in Rosenbluth potentials in Fokker-Planck operators) that are challenging to implement and computationally expensive to evaluate. In this work, we develop a data-driven neural network model that augments a simple and inexpensive BGK collision operator with a machine-learned correction term, which improves the fidelity of the simple operator with a small overhead to overall runtime. The composite collision operator has a tunable fidelity and, in this work, is trained using and tested against a direct-simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) collision operator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Effects of non-equilibrium ionization and excitation on radiation absorption in plasma plumes induced by ablation of metal targets with nanosecond laser pulses

Ionization and radiation absorption in nanosecond laser-induced plasma plumes are routinely modeled using the Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium ionization model (EQM). However, the equilibrium assumption can be inaccurate during the laser pulse when non-equilibrium effects significantly impact radiation absorption. In the present work, the EQM and non-equilibrium collisional-radiative model (CRM) are compared to reveal the effect of plasma non-equilibrium on radiation absorption in non-homogeneous plumes and degree of plasma shielding. Simulations of plume expansion induced by irradiation of a copper target in 1 atm argon background gas with a 10 ns Gaussian pulse at a fluence from 8 Jcm −2 to 14 Jcm −2 are performed with a hybrid computational model that couples a lumped particle direct simulation Monte Carlo method with either CRM or EQM. The simulations show that the EQM strongly underestimates the effects of ionization and radiation absorption compared to CRM and, contrary to the CRM, predict strong ionization of the background gas. The differences between the models are explained by the qualitatively different coupling between plume expansion and dynamics of ionization and exitation processes in the CRM and EQM under conditions when the characteristic times for most radiation- and electron-induced processes are longer than the pulse duration. The CRM-based predictions are also found to agree much better with available experimental data. In conclusion, these results indicate that the model of Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium cannot be used for reliable prediction of the degree of plasma shielding in plumes induced by nanosecond laser pulses or for processing results of spectroscopic measurements at early stages of expansion of such plumes.

Physics - Plasma physics↗

A Novel use of Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo to Model Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread

In this report, we evaluate a novel method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this new approach we leverage methods and algorithms developed for fully-kinetic plasma physics simulations using Particle-In-Cell (PIC) Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) models. This approach then leverages Sandia-unique simulation capabilities, and High-Performance Computer (HPC) resources and expertise in particle-particle interactions using stochastic processes. Our hypothesis is that this approach would provide a more efficient platform with assumptions based on physical data that would then enable the user to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and forecast different phases of infection. This work addresses key scientific questions related to the assumptions this new approach must make to model the interactions of people using algorithms typically used for modeling particle interactions in physics codes (kinetic plasma, gas dynamics). The model developed uses rational/physical inputs while also providing critical insight; the results could serve as inputs to, or alternatives for, existing models. The model work presented was developed over a four-week time frame, thus far showing promising results and many ways in which this model/approach could be improved. This work is aimed at providing a proof-of-concept for this new pandemic modeling approach, which could have an immediate impact on the COVID-19 pandemic modeling, while laying a basis to model future pandemic scenarios in a manner that is timely and efficient. Additionally, this new approach provides new visualization tools to help epidemiologists comprehend and articulate the spread of this and other pandemics as well as a more general tool to determine key parameters needed in order to better predict pandemic modeling in the future. In the report we describe our model for pandemic modeling, apply this model to COVID-19 data for New York City (NYC), assess model sensitivities to different inputs and parameters and , finally, propagate the model forward under different conditions to assess the effects of mitigation and associated timing. Finally, our approach will help understand the role of asymptomatic cases, and could be extended to elucidate the role of recovered individuals in the second round of the infection, which is currently being ignored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗