Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning
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Lisa Thalheimer↗
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Best Buy: Planning for Disaster
When a 1981 tornado in Minnesota revolutionized the retail approach of Sound of Music, which later changed its name to the now very familiar Best Buy, those who founded the company never imagined that a series of hurricanes twenty years later would also help give it a cutting-edge lead in customer service and disaster planning. That original "Tornado Sale'' introduced low prices in a "no-frills" environment that gave the company higher sales than the industry average and paved the way to a new business model. But before Best Buy could find the silver lining of these new storm clouds., it needed to survive them by planning for the destructive weather that plagued Florida during the summer of 2004. Having seen the power of listening to its employees and customers, Best Buy now seeks to capture their thoughts and feedback about other elements of the business.
Sachs, Adam↗
Development and Implementation of Real-Time Information Delivery Systems for Emergency Management
The disaster management community has an on-going need for real-time data and information, especially during catastrophic events. Currently, twin engine or jet aircraft with limited altitude and duration capabilities collect much of the data. Flight safety is also an issue. Clearly, much of the needed data could be delivered via over-the-horizon transfer through a uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAV) platform to mission managers at various locations on the ground. In fact, because of the ability to stay aloft for long periods of time, and to fly above dangerous situations, UAV's are ideally suited for disaster missions. There are numerous situations that can be considered disastrous for the human population. Some, such as fire or flood, can continue over a period of days. Disaster management officials rely on data from the site to respond in an optimum way with warnings, evacuations, rescue, relief, and to the extent possible, damage control. Although different types of disasters call for different types of response, most situations can be improved by having visual images and other remotely sensed data available. "Disaster Management" is actually made up of a number of activities, including: - Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - Emergency Response Planning - Disaster Management (real-time deployment of resources, during an event) - Disaster / Risk Modeling All of these activities could benefit from real-time information, but a major focus for UAV-based technology is in real-time deployment of resources (i.e., emergency response teams), based on changing conditions at the location of the event. With all these potential benefits, it is desirable to demonstrate to user agencies the ability to perform disaster management missions as described. The following demonstration project is the first in a program designed to prove the feasibility of supporting disaster missions with UAV technology and suitable communications packages on-board. A several-year program is envisioned, in which a broad range of disaster-related activities are demonstrated to the appropriate user communities.
Wegener, Steve↗
Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds
Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.
+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗
Specification of parameters for development of a spatial database for drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel
Parameters were described for spatial database to facilitate drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel. The proposed system, referred to as the African Drought and Famine Information System (ADFIS) is ultimately recommended for implementation with the NASA/FEMA Spatial Analysis and Modeling System (SAMS), a GIS/Dymanic Modeling software package, currently under development. SAMS is derived from FEMA'S Integration Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and the Pacific Northwest Laborotory's/Engineering Topographic Laboratory's Airland Battlefield Environment (ALBE) GIS. SAMS is primarily intended for disaster planning and resource management applications with the developing countries. Sources of data for the system would include the Developing Economics Branch of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World Bank, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine's Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) Project, the USAID's Foreign Disaster Assistance Section, the World Resources Institute, the World Meterological Institute, the USGS, the UNFAO, UNICEF, and the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). Satellite imagery would include decadal AVHRR imagery and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from 1981 to the present for the African continent and selected Landsat scenes for the Sudan pilot study. The system is initially conceived for the MicroVAX 2/GPX, running VMS. To facilitate comparative analysis, a global time-series database (1950 to 1987) is included for a basic set of 125 socio-economic variables per country per year. A more detailed database for the Sahelian countries includes soil type, water resources, agricultural production, agricultural import and export, food aid, and consumption. A pilot dataset for the Sudan with over 2,500 variables from the World Bank's ANDREX system, also includes epidemiological data on incidence of kwashiorkor, marasmus, other nutritional deficiencies, and synergistically-related infectious diseases.
Rochon, Gilbert L.↗
An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region
Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.
Simulated ground-motion database↗
Optimizing the location and configuration of disaster resilience hubs under transportation and electric power network failures
Natural disasters often result in failures of transportation network components and blackouts that imperil the wellbeing of vulnerable populations. In response to these events, resilience hubs have been proposed as a pre-disaster planning strategy to improve access to critical services. This paper introduces an optimization-based approach to locate and configure electric power-generating resilience hubs considering the possibility of failures in transportation and electric power systems. The model's objective is to identify hub locations and configurations that maximize transportation accessibility to the hubs and maximize the satisfaction of basic energy needs through hub-generated electric power. Besides a budget constraint, the model accounts for limits on the levels of hub energy generation vis-à-vis community energy demands, and on the transportation network distance of communities to hubs. Three heuristics are presented for the proposed planning problem. The first heuristic is a genetic algorithm (GA) with problem-specific solution generation procedures. The other two heuristics implement greedy search techniques. Numerical experiments were conducted, using data from rural Puerto Rico, to illustrate the application of the proposed model and heuristics, and examine their performance. In the numerical experiments, the GA heuristic found better solutions than the greedy heuristics. Additionally, design solutions consisting of spatially dispersed hubs with low energy generation capacity were better than solutions with spatially concentrated high-capacity hubs. Lastly, across a wide range of hub demand scenarios, only a small number of candidate hub locations consistently ranked among the best locations for establishing a hub.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Decoding Ethiopian Abodes: Towards Classifying Buildings by Occupancy Type Using Footprint Morphology
Building occupancy classification plays a crucial role in urban planning, disaster management, and population modeling. Traditional methods often require extensive field surveys or detailed datasets, which can be time-consuming, expensive, and may yield incomplete or erroneous data. In this paper, we present a novel approach for classifying buildings as residential or non-residential using only building footprint data. By extracting geometric shape derivatives that characterize building morphology, we developed a high-accuracy classification model employing a combination of unsupervised and supervised learning methods. We utilized open-source data from Open Street Map, aggregating it to create binary labels for buildings based on their respective human use type. Our approach demonstrates the potential for scalability without the need for additional data sources other than building footprints and labels, offering a more efficient solution for building occupancy classification.
Adams, Daniel↗
Rapid, Repeat-sample Monitoring of Crustal Deformations and Environmental Phenomena with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar
The Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) is a precision repeat-pass Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) mission being developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Dryden Flight Research Center in support of NASA s Science Mission Directorate. UAVSAR's unique ability to fly a repeatable flight path, along with an electronically steerable array, allows interferometric data to be obtained with accuracies measured in millimeters. Deploying the radar on an airborne platform will also allow for radar images to be collected and compared with images from the same area taken hours or even years later - providing for long-term trending and near real-time notification of changes and deformations. UAVSAR s data processing algorithms will provide for near-real time data reduction providing disaster planning and response teams with highly accurate data to aid in the prediction of, and response to, natural phenomena. UAVSAR data can be applied to increasing our understanding of the processes behind solid earth, cryosphere, carbon cycle and other areas of interest in earth science. Technologies developed for UAVSAR may also be applicable to a future earth-orbiting InSAR mission and possibly for missions to the Moon or Mars. The UAVSAR is expected to fly on a Gulfstream III aircraft this winter, followed by a flight test program lasting until the second half of 2007. Following radar calibration and data reduction activities, the platform will be ready for science users in the summer of 2008.
Smith, Robert C.↗
A Heuristic Approach to Global Landslide Susceptibility Mapping
Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.
mapping↗
Matsu: An Elastic Cloud Connected to a SensorWeb for Disaster Response
This slide presentation reviews the use of cloud computing combined with the SensorWeb in aiding disaster response planning. Included is an overview of the architecture of the SensorWeb, and overviews of the phase 1 of the EO-1 system and the steps to improve it to transform it to an On-demand product cloud as part of the Open Cloud Consortium (OCC). The effectiveness of this system is demonstrated in the SensorWeb for the Namibia flood in 2010, using information blended from MODIS, TRMM, River Gauge data, and the Google Earth version of Namibia the system enabled river surge predictions and could enable planning for future disaster responses.
Mandl, Daniel↗
National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Automated Information Security Handbook
The NASA Automated Information Security Handbook provides NASA's overall approach to automated information systems security including discussions of such aspects as: program goals and objectives, assignment of responsibilities, risk assessment, foreign national access, contingency planning and disaster recovery, awareness training, procurement, certification, planning, and special considerations for microcomputers.
Roback, E.↗
Logistics planning for direct temporary disaster housing assistance under demand uncertainty
Not Available
Chen, Sheng-Yin↗
Collaborative, Rapid Mapping of Water Extents During Hurricane Harvey Using Optical and Radar Satellite Sensors
On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, bringing with it unprecedented amounts of rainfall and record flooding. In times of natural disasters of this nature, emergency responders require timely and accurate information about the hazard in order to assess and plan for disaster response. Due to the extreme flooding impacts associated with Hurricane Harvey, delineations of water extent were crucial to inform resource deployment. Through the USGS's Hazards Data Distribution System, government and commercial vendors were able to acquire and distribute various satellite imagery to analysts to create value-added products that can be used by these emergency responders. Rapid-response water extent maps were created through a collaborative multi-organization and multi-sensor approach. One team of researchers created Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) water extent maps using modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2017), processed by ESA. This group used backscatter images, pre-processed by the Alaska Satellite Facility's Hybrid Pluggable Processing Pipeline (HyP3), to identify and apply a threshold to identify water in the image. Quality control was conducted by manually examining the image and correcting for potential errors. Another group of researchers and graduate student volunteers derived water masks from high resolution DigitalGlobe and SPOT images. Through a system of standardized image processing, quality control measures, and communication channels the team provided timely and fairly accurate water extent maps to support a larger NASA Disasters Program response. The optical imagery was processed through a combination of various band thresholds and by using Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and cloud masking. Several aspects of the pre-processing and image access were run on internal servers to expedite the provision of images to analysts who could focus on manipulating thresholds and quality control checks for maximum accuracy within the time constraints. The combined results of the radar- and optical-derived value-added products through the coordination of multiple organizations provided timely information for emergency response and recovery efforts.
SERVIR↗
Feature Detection Systems Enhance Satellite Imagery
In 1963, during the ninth orbit of the Faith 7 capsule, astronaut Gordon Cooper skipped his nap and took some photos of the Earth below using a Hasselblad camera. The sole flier on the Mercury-Atlas 9 mission, Cooper took 24 photos - never-before-seen images including the Tibetan plateau, the crinkled heights of the Himalayas, and the jagged coast of Burma. From his lofty perch over 100 miles above the Earth, Cooper noted villages, roads, rivers, and even, on occasion, individual houses. In 1965, encouraged by the effectiveness of NASA s orbital photography experiments during the Mercury and subsequent Gemini manned space flight missions, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) director William Pecora put forward a plan for a remote sensing satellite program that would collect information about the planet never before attainable. By 1972, NASA had built and launched Landsat 1, the first in a series of Landsat sensors that have combined to provide the longest continuous collection of space-based Earth imagery. The archived Landsat data - 37 years worth and counting - has provided a vast library of information allowing not only the extensive mapping of Earth s surface but also the study of its environmental changes, from receding glaciers and tropical deforestation to urban growth and crop harvests. Developed and launched by NASA with data collection operated at various times by the Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth Observation Satellite Company (EOSAT, a private sector partnership that became Space Imaging Corporation in 1996), and USGS, Landsat sensors have recorded flooding from Hurricane Katrina, the building boom in Dubai, and the extinction of the Aral Sea, offering scientists invaluable insights into the natural and manmade changes that shape the world. Of the seven Landsat sensors launched since 1972, Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 are still operational. Though both are in use well beyond their intended lifespans, the mid-resolution satellites, which provide the benefit of images detailed enough to reveal large features like highways while still broad enough for global coverage, continue to scan the entirety of the Earth s surface. In 2012, NASA plans to launch the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM), or Landsat 8, to extend the Landsat program s contributions to cartography, water management, natural disaster relief planning, and more.
Source record↗
Monitoring Disasters by Use of Instrumented Robotic Aircraft
Efforts are under way to develop data-acquisition, data-processing, and data-communication systems for monitoring disasters over large geographic areas by use of uninhabited aerial systems (UAS) robotic aircraft that are typically piloted by remote control. As integral parts of advanced, comprehensive disaster- management programs, these systems would provide (1) real-time data that would be used to coordinate responses to current disasters and (2) recorded data that would be used to model disasters for the purpose of mitigating the effects of future disasters and planning responses to them. The basic idea is to equip UAS with sensors (e.g., conventional video cameras and/or multispectral imaging instruments) and to fly them over disaster areas, where they could transmit data by radio to command centers. Transmission could occur along direct line-of-sight paths and/or along over-the-horizon paths by relay via spacecraft in orbit around the Earth. The initial focus is on demonstrating systems for monitoring wildfires; other disasters to which these developments are expected to be applicable include floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, leaks of toxic chemicals, and military attacks. The figure depicts a typical system for monitoring a wildfire. In this case, instruments aboard a UAS would generate calibrated thermal-infrared digital image data of terrain affected by a wildfire. The data would be sent by radio via satellite to a data-archive server and image-processing computers. In the image-processing computers, the data would be rapidly geo-rectified for processing by one or more of a large variety of geographic-information- system (GIS) and/or image-analysis software packages. After processing by this software, the data would be both stored in the archive and distributed through standard Internet connections to a disaster-mitigation center, an investigator, and/or command center at the scene of the fire. Ground assets (in this case, firefighters and/or firefighting equipment) would also be monitored in real time by use of Global Positioning System (GPS) units and radio communication links between the assets and the UAS. In this scenario, the UAS would serve as a data-relay station in the sky, sending packets of information concerning the locations of assets to the image-processing computer, wherein this information would be incorporated into the geo-rectified images and maps. Hence, the images and maps would enable command-center personnel to monitor locations of assets in real time and in relation to locations affected by the disaster. Optionally, in case of a disaster that disrupted communications, the UAS could be used as an airborne communication relay station to partly restore communications to the affected area. A prototype of a system of this type was demonstrated in a project denoted the First Response Experiment (Project FiRE). In this project, a controlled outdoor fire was observed by use of a thermal multispectral scanning imager on a UAS that delivered image data to a ground station via a satellite uplink/ downlink telemetry system. At the ground station, the image data were geo-rectified in nearly real time for distribution via the Internet to firefighting managers. Project FiRE was deemed a success in demonstrating several advances essential to the eventual success of the continuing development effort.
Wegener, Steven S.↗
NASA Applied Sciences Program
Goal 1: Enhance Applications Research Advance the use of NASA Earth science in policy making, resource management and planning, and disaster response. Key Actions: Identify priority needs, conduct applied research to generate innovative applications, and support projects that demonstrate uses of NASA Earth science. Goal 2: Increase Collaboration Establish a flexible program structure to meet diverse partner needs and applications objectives. Key Actions: Pursue partnerships to leverage resources and risks and extend the program s reach and impact. Goal 3:Accelerate Applications Ensure that NASA s flight missions plan for and support applications goals in conjunction with their science goals, starting with mission planning and extending through the mission life cycle. Key Actions: Enable identification of applications early in satellite mission lifecycle and facilitate effective ways to integrate end-user needs into satellite mission planning
Irwin, Daniel↗
Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities
Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.
SMD↗