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At least 19 records

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Potential structures - Applications of Machine Learning Techniques to Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis in the Great Basin Region, Nevada

This submission contains shapefiles, geotiffs, and symbology for the revised-from-Play-Fairway potential structures/structural settings used in the Nevada Geothermal Machine Learning project. Layers include potential structural setting ellipses, centroids, and distance-to-centroid raster. A submission linking the full GitHub repository for our machine learning Jupyter Notebooks will appear in the related datasets section of this page once available.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Multiscale Modeling of Intergranular Fracture in Aluminum: Constitutive Relation For Interface Debonding

Intergranular fracture is a dominant mode of failure in ultrafine grained materials. In the present study, the atomistic mechanisms of grain-boundary debonding during intergranular fracture in aluminum are modeled using a coupled molecular dynamics finite element simulation. Using a statistical mechanics approach, a cohesive-zone law in the form of a traction-displacement constitutive relationship, characterizing the load transfer across the plane of a growing edge crack, is extracted from atomistic simulations and then recast in a form suitable for inclusion within a continuum finite element model. The cohesive-zone law derived by the presented technique is free of finite size effects and is statistically representative for describing the interfacial debonding of a grain boundary (GB) interface examined at atomic length scales. By incorporating the cohesive-zone law in cohesive-zone finite elements, the debonding of a GB interface can be simulated in a coupled continuum-atomistic model, in which a crack starts in the continuum environment, smoothly penetrates the continuum-atomistic interface, and continues its propagation in the atomistic environment. This study is a step towards relating atomistically derived decohesion laws to macroscopic predictions of fracture and constructing multiscale models for nanocrystalline and ultrafine grained materials.

Yamakov, V.↗

Atomistic Cohesive Zone Models for Interface Decohesion in Metals

Using a statistical mechanics approach, a cohesive-zone law in the form of a traction-displacement constitutive relationship characterizing the load transfer across the plane of a growing edge crack is extracted from atomistic simulations for use within a continuum finite element model. The methodology for the atomistic derivation of a cohesive-zone law is presented. This procedure can be implemented to build cohesive-zone finite element models for simulating fracture in nanocrystalline or ultrafine grained materials.

Yamakov, Vesselin I.↗

Magnetic flux transfer associated with expansions and contractions of the dayside magnetosphere

The paper shows that the use of an empirical ellipsoidal model of the sunward magnetopause - which uses Ogo 5 magnetometer data, solar wind data from three satellites, and auroral zone magnetic indices - yields quantitative statistical estimates of the relative values of magnetopause displacements due to solar wind variation, flux transfers, and other causes. While the displacements due to flux transfers are smaller on the average, they are clearly comparable with those due solar wind fluctuations. The fact that expansion and contraction events are observed throughout the region accessible to Ogo 5 satellite on the sunward magnetopause suggests that the entire sunward magnetosphere is affected by flux erosion and return.

Holzer, R. E.↗

Empirical relationships between interplanetary conditions, magnetospheric flux transfer, and the AL index

Holzer and Slavin (1978) have found that the transfer of magnetic flux to and from the dayside magnetosphere as inferred from observed displacements of the magnetopause surface is correlated with both the magnitude of the auroral zone magnetic index AL and the incident flux of southward IMF. Empirical expressions specifying the rate at which magnetic flux is eroded in terms of interplanetary parameters and the rate of magnetic flux return as a function of AL have been developed. These relations are then used to predict magnetotail magnetic field enhancements from interplanetary and ground based data during an interval of substorm activity. The total magnetic flux in the tail is increased during intervals when the amount of flux transferred into its volume by dayside erosion exceeds the flux lost to the dayside by magnetospheric convection. Using Ogo-5 tail observations it is found for the sample events considered that these magnetic field enhancements can be described by empirical expressions for the magnetic flux transfer rates.

Slavin, J. A.↗

Relevence of 3D Simulations and Sandwich Core Topology for the Modeling of Honeycomb Core Sandwich Panels Undergoing Mode I Delamination

A recently developed cohesive zone traction-separation law, which includes the effects of fiber bridging in a novel way, is extended from 2D to 3D. The proposed cohesive model is applied to low fidelity (i.e. homogenized core representation) and high fidelity (i.e. directly accounting for the core topology) finite element models of a composite panel comprised of carbon fiber reinforced plastic facesheets and a honeycomb sandwich core. This enables the investigation of 2D to 3D parameter transferability, width-dependent effects such as thumbnail-shaped crack growth, and the verification of plane strain / plane stress assumptions. A pronounced curvature of the initial interface-related crack front is observed, while the bridging-related crack front is straight. Furthermore, it is found that the cohesive parameters can easily be transferred from 2D to 3D under plane stress assumptions, but not under plane strain assumptions. The numerical predictions are compared to experimental load-displacement and R-curves.

Composites↗

Palinspastic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for the middle Miocene

A paleogeographic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona at 10 Ma was made based on available geologic and geophysical data. Clockwise rotation of 39 deg was reconstructed in the eastern Transverse Ranges, consistent with paleomagnetic data from late Miocene volcanic rocks, and with slip estimates for left-lateral faults within the eastern Transverse Ranges and NW-trending right lateral faults in the Mojave Desert. This domain of rotated rocks is bounded by the Pinto Mountain fault on the north. In the absence of evidence for rotation of the San Bernardino Mountains or for significant right slip faults within the San Bernardino Mountains, the model requires that the late Miocene Pinto Mountain fault become a thrust fault gaining displacement to the west. The Squaw Peak thrust system of Meisling and Weldon may be a western continuation of this fault system. The Sheep Hole fault bounds the rotating domain on the east. East of this fault an array of NW-trending right slip faults and south-trending extensional transfer zones has produced a basin and range physiography while accumulating up to 14 km of right slip. This maximum is significantly less than the 37.5 km of right slip required in this region by a recent reconstruction of the central Mojave Desert. Geologic relations along the southern boundary of the rotating domain are poorly known, but this boundary is interpreted to involve a series of curved strike slip faults and non-coaxial extension, bounded on the southeast by the Mammoth Wash and related faults in the eastern Chocolate Mountains. Available constraints on timing suggest that Quaternary movement on the Pinto Mountain and nearby faults is unrelated to the rotation of the eastern Transverse Ranges, and was preceded by a hiatus during part of Pliocene time which followed the deformation producing the rotation. The reconstructed Clemens Well fault in the Orocopia Mountains, proposed as a major early Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault, projects eastward towards Arizona, where early Miocene rocks and structures are continuous across its trace. The model predicts a 14 deg clockwise rotation and 55 km extension along the present trace of the San Andreas fault during late Miocene and early Pliocene time. Palinspastic reconstructions of the San Andreas system based on this proposed reconstruction may be significantly modified from current models.

Richard, Stephen M.↗

Steady Long-term Slip Rate on the Blue Cut Fault: Implications for Ongoing Block Rotation in the Eastern Transverse Ranges, CA

We report the Eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR) province of California contains a system of E-W-trending left-lateral faults accommodating clockwise block rotation between the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system in the Coachella Valley and the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) in the Mojave Desert. Building upon established geometric relationships, we estimate that this rotation across the ETR may transfer right-lateral strain from the SAF to the ECSZ at a time-averaged rate of ~4.3–7.7 mm/yr. Through geomorphic mapping and the analysis of 38 10 Be surface exposure samples, we derive a long-term slip rate of 1.26 ± 0.50 (2σ) mm/yr over the late Pleistocene, yet analysis of the displacement record indicates a rate decrease ~71 kya. While a rate change on this fault could have implications for possible plate boundary reorganization in this area, we argue that this slip rate variability more likely reflects routine fluctuation about a steady lifetime slip rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interseismic Strain Accumulation between the Colorado Plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone: Implications for the Seismic Hazard near Las Vegas, Nevada

ABSTRACT Crustal deformation in the central Basin and Range between the Colorado plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone is active but slow, making it a challenge to assess how strain is distributed and crustal motion transferred. However, knowledge of strain rates is very important, particularly for addressing the seismic hazard for both the Las Vegas urban area and the site of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, in southern Nevada. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide important constraints, particularly now that the GPS network in the area has substantially expanded in recent years. However, because deformation is slow, it is important to mitigate any transient tectonic and nontectonic signals to obtain the most accurate long-term interseismic motion and robust estimation of strain rates. We use data from all GPS stations in the region including both long-running continuous and semicontinuous stations. We model and remove postseismic displacements at these stations using source parameters for 41 events, dating back to the 1700 Cascadia megathrust earthquake, which contribute significantly to the deformation field within the central Basin and Range. We also remove correlated noise from the time series with the common-mode component imaging technique. We find that removal of both the postseismic transients and common-mode noise substantially reduces the uncertainties and spatial variation in the velocities. We find east–west extension across the Las Vegas Valley of 0.5–0.6 mm/yr. The interseismic strain rate field, calculated with the final velocities, reveals higher strain rates through southern Nevada than in previous studies, with rates within Las Vegas Valley of 8.5±2.4×10−9 yr−1. Our results also confirm shear along the Pahranagat shear zone, but the estimated amplitude is strongly affected by postseismic relaxation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Characterization of Radiation Effects and Ion Tracks with Spallation Neutron Probes

Swift heavy ions are typically defined as high-mass charged particles of kinetic energy above ~1 MeV per nucleon (MeV/u). In this regime, the energy deposition of the ions is dominated by electronic stopping, and each individual ion may induce a linear trail of damage with a width of a few nanometers and a length of several tens of micrometers or more. During the last decade, ion tracks and other radiation effects induced by swift heavy ions have been studied in a wide range of materials for basic research, as well as for a wide variety of applications. The interactions of swift heavy ions with matter are significantly different from those induced by lower energy ions (keV-MeV), where atoms are directly displaced from their lattice sites via elastic collisions. In contrast, swift ions (MeV-GeV) transfer their kinetic energy to the electrons of the target, inducing ionization and initiating a cascade of secondary electrons that quickly spreads radially. The extremely high energy densities (up to tens of eV/atom) along the ion path lead to a confined plasma-like state that is dissipated through electron–phonon coupling to the lattice. Further, subsequent rapid transitions through equilibrium and non-equilibrium states trigger complex structural modifications within a highly localized nanoscale damage zone, forming ion tracks in materials ion tracks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fundamental problems of injector design

The principal control of the combustion within a liquid-propellant rocket thrust chamber is provided by the injector. Only when precise control of the injection process is attained can optimum performance, dynamic stability, heat transfer compatibility and reproducibility be provided. Control must be designed into each step of the injection process with sufficient isolation provided to insure stability. In the design of the injector manifolding, the main desire is to provide mass and mixture ratio regulation across the injector face. The design of the injector orifices must be such that this mass and mixture ratio control is retained through the orifices and imparted to the droplet sprays that are produced. Furthermore, the orifice design must control the size and distribution of the droplets generated so that combustion will be completed within the chamber. Mechanical damping devices are often required to protect the early mixing zone from transverse velocities and associated displacement effects in the chamber. Only when each phase of the injection process is carefully controlled can the design aims be reached.

David T Harrje↗

Polarized absorption spectra of single crystals of lunar pyroxenes and olivines.

Measurements have been made of the polarized absorption spectra (360-2200 nm) of compositionally zoned pyroxene minerals in rocks 10045, 10047 and 10058 and olivines in rocks 10020 and 10022. The Apollo 11 pyroxenes with relatively high Ti/Fe ratios were chosen initially to investigate the presence of crystal field spectra of Fe(2+) and Ti(3+) ions in the minerals. Broad intense bands at about 1000 and 2100 nm arise from spin-allowed, polarization-dependent transitions in Fe(2+) ions in pyroxenes. Several weak sharp peaks occur in the visible region. Peaks at 402, 425, 505, 550, and 585 nm represent spin-forbidden transitions in Fe(2+) ions, while broader bands at 460-470 nm and 650-660 nm are attributed to Ti(3+) ions. Charge transfer bands, which in terrestrial pyroxenes often extend into the visible region, are displaced to shorter wavelengths in lunar pyroxenes. This feature correlates with the absence of Ti(3+) ions in these minerals.

Burns, R. G.↗

Factors controlling injection-induced rupture of intersecting faults during geological sequestration of CO 2

This study addresses coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics effects on potential fault activation associated with subsurface CO 2 injection around intersecting faults. An enhanced fault-representation model is used to capture geomechanical responses of two intersecting faults with finite length during CO 2 injection. The faults are embedded in a strike-slip stress regime of a caprock-reservoir-basement system with the faults represented by zero-thickness interfaces with adjacent finite-thickness damage zones. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effect of fault permeability, slip-weakening behavior, well location relative to the orientation of faults, and well placement (the number and location of injection wells). Five metrics (pressure, CO 2 plume, shear state on the fault, as well as shear displacement and stress path at selected fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO 2 migration and reactivation of intersecting faults. The results show that induced ruptures are favored by low permeability faults due to high pressure buildup and by slip-weakening behavior resulting from fault strength reduction. The location of one injection well relative to fault orientation determines the magnitude of changes in effective normal stress and shear stress, affecting the location of induced ruptures. Well placement (two injection wells used in the paper) dominates pressure diffusion around the intersection and tips of faults. This redistributes changes in effective normal stress caused by each injection well, influencing the spatial distribution of ruptures along faults. A larger injection volume induces far-field ruptures that are controlled by stress transfer within the injection layer. The findings presented here can provide valuable insights into engineering operations for a long-term, safe, and reliable geologic CO 2 storage.

Fault permeability↗

Quasi-Steady Simulation of Glaze Ice Accretion and Heat Transfer in the Supercooled Large Droplet Regime in Atmospheric Turbulent Air Flow

Abstract To avoid the use of a computationally intensive full unsteady simulation while providing an accurate solution, a quasi-steady simulation has been performed to study glaze and mixed ice accretion in the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime in turbulent flow of atmospheric air. We have attempted to find the minimum time-step necessary to adequately simulate the icing process on an airfoil surface. Based on node displacement, a mesh morphing scheme has been adopted in the computations to account for the moving boundaries that are caused by the continuous ice buildup. We have modeled ice accretion on an airfoil surface for a time period of 232 s using several time steps. At each time-step we solved the steady-state conservation equations for the air and droplet phases and then used the results as initial conditions for the next time position. The magnitude of the time-step ranged from a least accurate two-shot simulation (where the time-step is 116 s) to a most accurate 2320-shot simulation (where the time-step is 0.1 s). In-between these two extreme time steps, we have performed a three-shot simulation (where the time-step is 77.33 s), a four-shot simulation (where the time-step is 58 s), a six-shot simulation (where the time-step is 38.67 s), a 46-shot simulation (where the time-step is 5 s), and a 232-shot simulation (where the time-step is 1 s). We have done so to find out the degree of accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the multishot simulation approach and to find out the appropriate time-step needed for a successful and valid quasi-steady simulation. A valid quasi-steady simulation needs to use a time-step that is small enough to reproduce the full time-dependent solution within a very small error band. We have found that both the 1 s and the 0.1 s time steps produce virtually identical results. This is the primary litmus test that proves the validity of the quasi-steady-state assumption. The results adopted in this paper are thus all based on the more conservative 0.1 s time-step. In the process of performing the simulations, remeshing was required in order to maintain the grid density in zones of high curvature to be able to capture the full physics in those zones. After successfully modeling glaze ice accretion over the airfoil surface using the 0.1 s quasi-steady simulation approach, the effects of supercooled large droplets (SLDs) impacting the surface have been examined and presented in terms of the variation of the local collection efficiency, the water film thickness, and the heat transfer rate. Examination of the variation of the angle that the ice horn makes with the airfoil chord line demonstrated a 20% improvement in angle prediction when the time-step is reduced from 116 s to 0.1 s. The analysis also reveals a 12% or 8.5% increase in the maximum collection efficiency, βmax, depending on whether the value of the liquid water content (LWC) has been doubled from 0.5 g/m3 to 1 g/m3, or the value of the freestream velocity has been doubled from 75 m/s to 150 m/s, respectively. Because of the need to monitor the local collection efficiency and convective heat fluxes at each shot (regardless of the number of shots employed), the approach adopted here was found to be effective in successively and successfully reproducing the curvature of the glaze ice horn.

Engineering↗

Geomechanical in situ testing of fault reactivation in argillite repositories

Abstract. Pressurization of natural faults as a result of repository-induced effects can lead to their reactivation and permeability generation in case such features are present near disposal tunnels. Potential driving forces for such pressurization are the temperature increase caused by heat-producing high-level radioactive waste and the generation of hydrogen and other gases due to corrosion of engineered materials. We are primarily concerned about pressurization and fault activation in host rocks and faults that have very low natural permeability for pore pressure increases to dissipate, such as the argillite rocks currently investigated in Switzerland, France and other countries. This presentation discusses a series of in situ experiments of fault activation by fluid injection conducted in the argillite rock (Opalinus clay) at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland. A multi-model monitoring test bed was installed at Mont Terri that includes distributed fiber optics for strain, temperature, and acoustics; local fault pore pressure and three-dimensional displacement sensors; active seismic imaging; and passive seismic monitoring. The fault experiments (and their subsequent analysis via hydromechanical modeling) provide a new fundamental understanding of the coupling between pore pressure, fault deformation and permeability generation as a function of time and allow exploring how seismic and aseismic events may impact the integrity of faulted argillite host rock. Our experimental observations demonstrate that significant flow (and transport) can occur along the initially impermeable argillite fault when rupture is activated. However, the fault permeability decreases to almost its pre-activation value when fluid injection ceases and fluid pressure drops. Dilatant slip on the fault plane alone does not explain the observed increase in fault permeability; pressure-induced fault opening also plays a role, favored by the softness of the shale along with the fact that the structure of the fault zone prevents fluids from diffusing into the adjacent damage zone. Rupture initiation and permeability generation is initially aseismic, associated only with an increase in noise level and emerging tremors. Micro-earthquakes are initiated later in the experiments and typically occur away from the fluid-pressurized area. Hydromechanical models show that stress transferred from the initial aseismic deformation can build up to stress criticality and later induce seismic rupture. After presenting the experimental results, we will close the presentation with an outlook to future experimental campaigns using the fault test bed at Mont Terri. We are currently planning a controlled thermal stimulation of the fault, where instead of fluid injection as a trigger mechanism we will heat up the nearby rock volume and measure potential effects on fault stability. Lessons learned from our past and future experiments will help inform the safety assessment of geologic disposal in argillite host rock.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

Crustal Deformation Associated with Glacial Fluctuations in the Eastern Chugach Mountains, Alaska

The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993-1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 cubic km from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M(sub L) > 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M(sub L) < 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, o,3, could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1-6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1-12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5 x 10(exp 19) Pa s for depths between approximately equal 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in sigma(sub V) between 0 and 10 km was approximately equal 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (approximately 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M(sub S) = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Sauber, Jeanne↗