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At least 19 records

A robust statistical analysis of the role of hydropower on the system electricity price and price volatility

Abstract Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage and large reservoir storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid (S. Rehman, L M Al-Hadhrami, and M M Alam), (2015 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 44 , 586–98). This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014-2020 (ISONE, ISO New England Web Services API v1.1 .” https://webservices.iso-ne.com/docs/v1.1/ , 2021. Accessed: 2021-01-10). We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (>70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Chemical Composition of Outbursting Comet C/2015 ER61 (PanSTARRS)

Comet C/2015 ER61 (PanSTARRS) is a long-period Oort cloud comet whose favorable approach to the inner parts of the solar system in 2017 April–May enabled us to characterize its primary volatile composition using the iSHELL spectrograph mounted on the 3 m NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Maunakea, Hawaii. We used three iSHELL settings (covering ~2.8–5.2 μm) to sample fluorescent emissions from H{sub 2}O, OH, CH{sub 3}OH, HCN, C{sub 2} H{sub 2}, NH{sub 3}, CO, CH{sub 4}, C{sub 2}H{sub 6}, H{sub 2}CO, and OCS on multiple dates ranging from UT 2017 April 15 (shortly after its April 4 outburst) to May 13, nearly 30 days before the detection of its double nucleus. Our observations also offered the opportunity to obtain sensitive 3σ upper limits for cyanoacetylene (HC{sub 3}N). We report rotational temperatures (T{sub rot}), production rates (Qs), abundance (mixing) ratios (relative to H{sub 2}O and C{sub 2}H{sub 6}), and spatial distributions in the coma. ER61 exhibits variability in production rates of many species on short (day-to-day) and long (pre- versus post-perihelion) timescales. The relative abundances of these volatile species remained consistent within uncertainties during our pre-perihelion observations but tended to decrease during our post-perihelion observations (with the exception of CH{sub 3}OH and HCN). The short-timescale variability in the production rates of these volatiles could be due to diurnal effects (over the course of the rotation of the nucleus) and/or the effect of its outburst. The decrease in the production rates and hence the mixing ratios in some volatiles in post-perihelion dates could be due to the presence of seasonal effects in ER61.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of autumn diurnal freeze–thaw cycles on soil bacteria and greenhouse gases in the permafrost regions

Understanding the impacts of diurnal freeze–thaw cycles (DFTCs) on soil microorganisms and greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for assessing soil carbon and nitrogen cycles in the alpine ecosystems. However, relevant studies in the permafrost regions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are still lacking. In this study, we used high-throughput pyrosequencing and static chamber-gas chromatogram to study the changes in topsoil bacteria and fluxes of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), during autumn DFTCs in the permafrost regions of the Shule River headwaters on the western part of Qilian Mountains, northeast margin of the QTP. The results showed that the bacterial communities contained a total of 35 phyla, 88 classes, 128 orders, 153 families, 176 genera, and 113 species. The dominant phyla were Proteobacteria , Acidobacteria , Actinobacteria , Chloroflexi , and Gemmatimonadetes . Two DFTCs led to a trend of increasing bacterial diversity and significant changes in the relative abundance of 17 known bacteria at the family, genus, and species levels. These were predominantly influenced by soil temperature, water content, and salinity. In addition, CO 2 flux significantly increased while CH 4 flux distinctly decreased, and N 2 O flux tended to increase after two DFTCs, with soil bacteria being the primary affecting variable. This study can provide a scientific insight into the impact of climate change on biogeochemical cycles of the QTP.

Lv, Zhenying↗

How can we combine urban cooling strategies to effectively cool cities over the entire diurnal cycle?

The urban heat island effect generally peaks in the night/evening hours and, in some cases, an urban cool island effect during daytime has been reported. These patterns are observed mainly because of the widespread use of impervious and thermally massive materials (like concrete and asphalt) in the built environment and their ability to store energy during the daytime and release it at night. Unfortunately, most urban cooling strategies, such as cool (white), green, and blue spaces, provide better thermal performance during the daytime than at night. Hence, such solutions are not ideal for nighttime heat mitigation. In this study, we investigate the effect of the thermal storage capacity of existing buildings on nighttime urban air temperature for a hot arid city—Phoenix, and a hot humid city—Atlanta. The study uses regional scale atmospheric modeling to compare the nighttime urban cooling capability of thermally light buildings (Cross-laminated timber buildings in this case) with concrete buildings. The results show that the adoption of thermally light buildings reduce nighttime air temperatures, and slightly increases daytime air temperatures. On the other hand, cool roof adaption could reduce urban air temperature significantly during the daytime and slightly at night. Therefore, together with cool roofs, thermally light buildings may be able to cool the surrounding air by an average of about 1°C throughout the diurnal cycle, providing thermal comfort and reducing cooling demand during all hours.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The diurnally-averaged aerosol direct radiative effect and the use of the daytime-mean and insolation-weighted-mean solar zenith angles

Here, this study examines the application of the daytime-mean and insolation-weighted-mean solar zenith angles to calculate the diurnally-averaged aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE), DRE DA , for observed clear-sky conditions at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. As compared with the reference calculation, the DRE DA are too strong (i.e., more negative) using daytime-mean solar zenith angles (DTMSZA) and are too weak (i.e., less negative) using insolation-weighted-mean solar zenith angles (IWMSZA). The biases in the DRE DA for DTMSZA (IWMSZA) are about -0.8 (0.7) W m -2 at the TOA and about -1.5 (0.9) W m -2 at the surface. Noting the mean TOA DRE DA of -2.85 W m -2 and the surface DRE DA of -7.09 W m -2 at SGP, the relative biases for DTMSZA (IWMSZA) are 26% (-24%) for the TOA DRE DA , and 17% (-11%) for the surface DRE DA . At TWP, the mean TOA DRE DA is -2.81 W m -2 and the surface DRE DA is -11.84 W m -2 which corresponds to relative biases for DTMSZA (IWMSZA) of 29% (-27%) for the TOA DRE DA and 15% (-9%) for the surface DRE DA . By introducing an adjusted insolation-weighted-mean solar zenith angle, the mean biases in the DRE DA at the TOA becomes -0.09 W m -2 and the biases in the DRE DA at the surface are about -0.41 W m -2 . Also presented are the effects of using the mean solar zenith angles on the shortwave (SW) upward fluxes at the TOA and SW downward fluxes at the surface in both clear-sky and pristine-clear-sky (i.e., gases only) conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Addressing challenges for operating electrochemical solar fuels technologies under variable and diurnal conditions

The outdoor operation of electrochemical solar fuels devices must contend with challenges presented by the cycles of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors. Herein, we discuss challenges associated with these fluctuations presented over three timescales, including the effects of diurnal cycling over the course of many days, a single diurnal cycle over the course of hours, and meteorological phenomena that cause fluctuations on the order of seconds to minutes. We also highlight both reaction-independent and reaction-specific effects of variable conditions for the hydrogen evolution reaction and CO 2 reduction reaction. We identify key areas of research for advancing the outdoor operation of solar fuels technology and highlight the need for metrics and benchmarks to enable the comparison of diurnal studies across systems and geographical locations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Quantification of energy and cost reduction from decreasing dissolved oxygen levels in full‐scale water resource recovery facilities

Abstract Aeration systems often lack the efficiency to maintain a desired residual dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in the tank in part because little consideration is given to the dynamic daily and seasonal loading conditions. Although advanced aeration controllers exist, the majority of plants have DO set points typically based on common practice and literature values rather than site‐specific conditions, which can result in DO set points higher than those necessary to meet treatment objectives. DO set point reduction strategies have primarily been proposed through either static or dynamic simulations. In this study, the substantial improvements associated with DO set point reduction are demonstrated at full scale. A yearlong characterization of full‐scale aeration dynamics captured the effect of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations on oxygen transfer and energy demand and so facilitated the estimation of the potential savings of DO reduction strategies. Full‐scale validation provided direct evidence of DO reduction strategies inducing an overall enhancement of oxygen transfer efficiency along the different bioreactors, while confirming that energy savings as high as 20% were feasible. This study quantifies the influence of oxygen transfer efficiency on operating choices and site‐specific conditions (control strategy, loading conditions, and influent flow variability). Practitioner points We quantified the energy reduction and cost savings associated with a DO reduction in an aeration tank. For each 0.2 mg/L of DO decreased, the average power demand reduction per unit water treated exceeded 17%. Field measurements of dynamic alpha values eliminate the uncertainty in estimating aeration energy and cost savings from DO variations.

Pasini, Federico↗

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

We report the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation simulated from CMIP6 models during 1996-2005 are evaluated globally between 60°S and 60°N, as well as at ten selected locations representing three categories of diurnal cycle of precipitation: (1) afternoon precipitation over land, (2) early morning precipitation over ocean, and (3) nocturnal precipitation over land. Three satellite-based and two ground-based rainfall products are used to evaluate the climate models. Globally, the ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows a diurnal phase of 3 to 4 hours earlier over land and 1 to 2 hours earlier over ocean, when compared with the latest satellite products. These biases are in line with what were found in previous versions of climate models but reduced compared to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Analysis at the selected locations complimented with in-situ measurements further reinforces these results. Several CMIP6 models have shown a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of precipitation compared to their CMIP5 counterparts, notably on delaying afternoon precipitation over land. This can be attributed to the use of more sophisticated convective parameterizations. Most models are still unable to capture the nocturnal peak associated with elevated convection and propagating mesoscale convective systems, with a few exceptions that allow convection to be initiated above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. We also quantify an encouraging consistency between the satellite- and ground-based precipitation measurements despite differing spatiotemporal resolutions and sampling periods, which provides confidence in using them to evaluate the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the Roles of Convective Trigger Functions in the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the NCAR CAM5

The wrong diurnal cycle of precipitation is a common weakness of current global climate models (GCMs). To improve the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation and understand what physical processes control it, we test a convective trigger function described in Xie et al. (2019) with additional optimizations in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The revised trigger function consists of three modifications: 1) replacing the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) trigger with a dynamic CAPE (dCAPE) trigger, 2) allowing convection to originate above the top of planetary boundary layer (i.e., the unrestricted air parcel launch level - ULL), and 3) optimizing the entrainment rate and threshold value of the dynamic CAPE generation rate for convection onset based on observations. Results from 1°-resolution simulations show that the revised trigger can alleviate the long-standing GCM problem of too early maximum precipitation during the day and missing the nocturnal precipitation peak that is observed in many regions, including the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP). The revised trigger also improves the simulation of the propagation of precipitation systems downstream of the Rockies and the Amazon region. A further composite analysis over the SGP unravels the mechanisms through which the revised trigger affects convection. Additional sensitivity tests show that both the peak time and the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation are sensitive to the entrainment rate and dCAPE threshold values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Interaction between the Nocturnal Amazonian Low-Level Jet and Convection in CESM

A nocturnal Amazonian low-level jet (ALLJ) was recently diagnosed using reanalysis data. This work assesses the ability of CESM1.2.2 to reproduce the jet and explores the mechanisms by which the ALLJ influences convection in the Amazon. The coupled CESM simulates the nocturnal ALLJ realistically, while CAM5 does not. A low-level cold air temperature bias in the eastern Amazon exists in CAM5, and thus the ALLJ is weaker than observed. However, a cold SST bias over the equatorial North Atlantic in the coupled model offsets the cold air temperature bias, producing a realistic ALLJ. Climate models significantly underestimate March–May (MAM) precipitation over the eastern Amazon. Here, we ran two sensitivity experiments using the coupled CESM by adding bottom-heavy diabatic heating at noon and midnight for 2.5 h along the coastal Amazon during MAM to mimic the occurrence of shallow precipitating convection. When heating is added during the early afternoon, coastal convection deepens and the ALLJ transports moisture inland from the ocean, preconditioning the environment for deep convective development during the ensuing hours. The increased convection over the eastern Amazon also moderately alleviates the equatorial Atlantic westerly wind bias, leading to deepening of the east Atlantic thermocline in the following months and partially improving the simulated June–August (JJA) Atlantic cold tongue in the coupled model. When heating is added at night, coastal convection does not strengthen as much and the ALLJ transports less moisture. Improvements in the simulated Atlantic winds and SST are negligible. Therefore, diurnal circulations matter to the organization of convection and rain across the Amazon, with impacts over the equatorial Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling diurnal and annual ethylene generation from solar-driven electrochemical CO 2 reduction devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards reducing carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimentally-determined CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. Here we simulated gaseous diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne per year at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling Diurnal and Annual Ethylene Generation from Solar-Driven Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards achieving net-negative carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Here, using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimental CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. We simulated diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature to determine gaseous product temperature sensitivity. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne/yr at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

Yap, Kyra M. K.↗

Diurnal rainfall response to the physiological and radiative effects of CO 2 in tropical forests in the Energy exascale earth system model v1

Understanding how the connection between rainfall and tropical forests will respond to increasing CO$_2$ concentrations is a key element in understanding how the tropical water cycle will respond to increasing CO$_2$. The plant physiological and radiative impacts of CO$_2$ on rainfall patterns over tropical forest regions are examined in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1.1 (E3SMv1.1-BGC) biogeochemistry experiments. Composite analysis reveals a dampening of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon, Congo, and Maritime Continent in response to rising CO$_2$ levels, regardless of the sign of total rainfall change. A full factorial model experiment confirms that the CO$_2$ radiative and CO$_2$ plant physiological effects can individually or jointly reduce the magnitude of the rainfall diurnal cycle, though the physical pathway giving rise to the reduction differs between the two effects. For the physiological response, stomatal closure reduces evapotranspiration, which dries the boundary layer and raises the lifting condensation level. These effects combine to reduce deep convective rainfall during its peak occurrence in the late daytime to early nighttime period. For the radiative response, a relative reduction in daytime CAPE (consistent with a reduction in the diurnal temperature range) leads to less frequent triggering of deep convection and a reduction of rainfall diurnal amplitude. These diurnal rainfall changes are structurally similar across seasons, and show little sensitivity to representation of nutrient coupling for the land biogeochemistry. In agreement with previous findings, the physiological response has only minor impact on extreme rainfall relative to the radiative response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The diurnal susceptibility of subtropical clouds to aerosols

The diurnal susceptibility of clouds and their radiative properties to aerosols is examined during their Lagrangian transition from subtropical stratocumulus to shallow cumulus regimes. Using large-eddy simulations, we analyze the six-day evolution of an air mass along a 3800 km observed trajectory from the coast of Peru toward the equator. Pristine and polluted scenarios are simulated with forcing imposed from weather reanalysis. The polluted scenario exhibits stronger diurnal variations in cloud water, cloud fraction, and albedo, with enhanced nighttime entrainment and suppressed precipitation. The overall response of cloud properties and outgoing shortwave radiation to droplet number concentration follows a distinct diurnal pattern: strong positive cloud adjustments dominate at night and in the morning, while weak negative adjustments prevail in the afternoon. This cycle is driven by the competition between precipitation suppression, which enhances cloud water and coverage, and entrainment drying, which depletes them. In polluted conditions, enhanced entrainment leads to a deeper and more decoupled boundary layer that cannot be sustained by surface fluxes in the afternoon, resulting in negative cloud adjustments. The enhanced entrainment rate under polluted conditions is caused by the reduced sedimentation of cloud and precipitation water from the entrainment zone. While the Twomey effect dominates the diurnal average albedo response, the diurnal variation in the competing cloud adjustments lead to a near-neutral net susceptibility in the afternoon, highlighting the critical role of diurnally varying processes in aerosol-cloud interactions.

Geosciences↗

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗