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Effects of Impact and Target Parameters on the Results of a Kinetic Impactor: Predictions for the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

Abstract The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft will impact into the asteroid Dimorphos on 2022 September 26 as a test of the kinetic impactor technique for planetary defense. The efficiency of the deflection following a kinetic impactor can be represented using the momentum enhancement factor, β , which is dependent on factors such as impact geometry and the specific target material properties. Currently, very little is known about Dimorphos and its material properties, which introduces uncertainty in the results of the deflection efficiency observables, including crater formation, ejecta distribution, and β . The DART Impact Modeling Working Group (IWG) is responsible for using impact simulations to better understand the results of the DART impact. Pre-impact simulation studies also provide considerable insight into how different properties and impact scenarios affect momentum enhancement following a kinetic impact. This insight provides a basis for predicting the effects of the DART impact and the first understanding of how to interpret results following the encounter. Following the DART impact, the knowledge gained from these studies will inform the initial simulations that will recreate the impact conditions, including providing estimates for potential material properties of Dimorphos and β resulting from DART’s impact. This paper summarizes, at a high level, what has been learned from the IWG simulations and experiments in preparation for the DART impact. While unknown, estimates for reasonable potential material properties of Dimorphos provide predictions for β of 1–5, depending on end-member cases in the strength regime.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Achievement of the Planetary Defense Investigations of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection, and the mission's Level 1 requirements guided its planetary defense investigations. Here, we summarize DART's achievement of those requirements. On 2022 September 26, the DART spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary member of the Didymos near-Earth asteroid binary system, demonstrating an autonomously navigated kinetic impact into an asteroid with limited prior knowledge for planetary defense. Months of subsequent Earth-based observations showed that the binary orbital period was changed by –33.24 minutes, with two independent analysis methods each reporting a 1 σ uncertainty of 1.4 s. Dynamical models determined that the momentum enhancement factor, β , resulting from DART's kinetic impact test is between 2.4 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos, which remains the largest source of uncertainty. Over five dozen telescopes across the globe and in space, along with the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids, have contributed to DART's investigations. These combined investigations have addressed topics related to the ejecta, dynamics, impact event, and properties of both asteroids in the binary system. A year following DART's successful impact into Dimorphos, the mission has achieved its planetary defense requirements, although work to further understand DART's kinetic impact test and the Didymos system will continue. In particular, ESA's Hera mission is planned to perform extensive measurements in 2027 during its rendezvous with the Didymos–Dimorphos system, building on DART to advance our knowledge and continue the ongoing international collaboration for planetary defense.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting Asteroid Material Properties from a DART-like Kinetic Impact

Abstract NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of the ejecta contribution is dependent on the material properties of the target. These properties, such as strength and shear modulus, are unknown for the DART target asteroid, Dimorphos, as well as most asteroids since such properties are difficult to characterize remotely. This study examines how hydrocode simulations can be used to estimate material properties from information available post-impact, specifically the asteroid size and shape, the velocity and properties of the impacting spacecraft, and the final velocity change imparted to the asteroid. Across >300 three-dimensional simulations varying seven material parameters describing the asteroid, we found many combinations of properties could reproduce a particular asteroid velocity. Additional observations, such as asteroid mass or crater size, are required to further constrain properties like asteroid strength or outcomes like the momentum enhancement provided by impact ejecta. Our results demonstrate the vital importance of having as much knowledge as possible prior to an impact mission, with key material parameters being the asteroid’s mass, porosity, strength, and elastic properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dimorphos’s Material Properties and Estimates of Crater Size from the DART Impact

On 2022 September 26, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft intentionally collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the binary asteroid system 65803 Didymos. This collision provided the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor for planetary defense. Images from DART’s DRACO camera revealed Dimorphos to be an oblate spheroid covered in boulders of varying sizes and shapes. Very little was known about Dimorphos prior to DART’s impact, including its shape, structure, and material properties. Approach observations and those following the DART impact have provided crucial knowledge that narrows the parameter space relevant to modeling the impact into Dimorphos. Here we present the results of a suite of hydrocode simulations of the DART impact on Dimorphos. Despite remaining uncertainties, initial models of DART’s kinetic impact provide important information about the results of DART (e.g., potential crater size and morphology, ejecta mass) and the properties of Dimorphos. Simulations here suggest that Dimorphos has near-surface strength ranging from a few Pascals to tens of kPa, which corresponds to crater sizes of ~40–60 m. Simulated crater sizes provide a crucial comparison metric for the European Space Agency Hera mission when it arrives at the Didymos system. Hera’s measurement of crater size in combination with measurement of Dimorphos’s mass will allow us to assess our simulations and provide the information needed to make the DART impact experiment both the first test of a planetary defense mitigation mission and the first full-scale planetary defense simulation validation exercise.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-speed Boulders and the Debris Field in DART Ejecta

On 2022 September 26 the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymos, in a full-scale demonstration of a kinetic impactor concept. The companion Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) spacecraft documented the aftermath, capturing images of the expansion and evolution of the ejecta from 29 to 243 s after the impact. We present results from our analyses of these observations, including an improved reduction of the data and new absolute calibration, an updated LICIACube trajectory, and a detailed description of the events and phenomena that were recorded throughout the flyby. One notable aspect of the ejecta was the existence of clusters of boulders, up to 3.6 m in radius, that were ejected at speeds of up to 52 m s −1 . Our analysis of the spatial distribution of 104 of these boulders suggests that they are likely the remnants of larger boulders shattered by the DART spacecraft in the first stages of the impact. The amount of momentum contained in these boulders is more than 3 times that of the DART spacecraft, and it is directed primarily to the south, almost perpendicular to the DART trajectory. Recoil of Dimorphos from the ejection of these boulders has the potential to change its orbital plane by up to a degree and to impart a non-principal-axis component to its rotation state. Damping timescales for these phenomena are such that the Hera spacecraft, arriving at the system in 2026, should be able to measure these effects.

asteroid dynamics↗

Momentum Transfer from the DART Mission Kinetic Impact on Asteroid Dimorphos

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission performed a kinetic impact on asteroid Dimorphos, the satellite of the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, at 23:14 UTC on 26 September 2022 as a planetary defence test. DART was the first hypervelocity impact experiment on an asteroid at size and velocity scales relevant to planetary defence, intended to validate kinetic impact as a means of asteroid deflection. Here we report a determination of the momentum transferred to an asteroid by kinetic impact. On the basis of the change in the binary orbit period, we find an instantaneous reduction in Dimorphos’s along-track orbital velocity component of 2.70 ± 0.10 mm s -1 , indicating enhanced momentum transfer due to recoil from ejecta streams produced by the impact. For a Dimorphos bulk density range of 1,500 to 3,300 kg m -3 , we find that the expected value of the momentum enhancement factor, β, ranges between 2.2 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos. If Dimorphos and Didymos are assumed to have equal densities of 2,400 kg m -3 , β=3.61$^{+0.19}_{-0.25}$(1σ) . These β values indicate that substantially more momentum was transferred to Dimorphos from the escaping impact ejecta than was incident with DART. Therefore, the DART kinetic impact was highly effective in deflecting the asteroid Dimorphos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Physical properties of asteroid Dimorphos as derived from the DART impact

On 26 September 2022, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. Numerical simulations of the impact provide a means to find the surface material properties and structures of the target that are consistent with the observed momentum deflection efficiency, ejecta cone geometry and ejected mass. Our simulation that best matches the observations indicates that Dimorphos is weak, with a cohesive strength of less than a few pascals, like asteroids (162173) Ryugu and (101955) Bennu. We find that the bulk density of Dimorphos ρ B is lower than ~2,400 kg m – 3 and that it has a low volume fraction of boulders (≲40 vol%) on the surface and in the shallow subsurface, which are consistent with data measured by the DART experiment. These findings suggest that Dimorphos is a rubble pile that might have formed through rotational mass shedding and reaccumulation from Didymos. Our simulations indicate that the DART impact caused global deformation and resurfacing of Dimorphos. ESA’s upcoming Hera mission may find a reshaped asteroid rather than a well-defined crater.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spacecraft Geometry Effects on Kinetic Impactor Missions

Abstract The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission will impact a spacecraft on the secondary (Dimorphos) of the binary asteroid system Didymos in 2022 September, with the goal of altering the orbital period of Dimorphos about Didymos sufficiently to be observed from ground-based observations. Numerical impact modeling is a crucial component in understanding the outcome of the DART experiment, and while many have investigated the effects of target properties, such as material strength and porosity (which remain unknown), an often overlooked factor is the importance of accurately representing the spacecraft itself in such models. Most impact modeling to date has considered simple impactor geometries such as a solid uniform sphere, but in reality the spacecraft is a complex shape full of different components, open spaces, and thin walled structures. At a minimum, a simple solid representation underestimates the surface area of the impact: for a small body such as Dimorphos (approximately 160 m in diameter), the difference between a spacecraft spanning 20 m (including solar arrays) impacting and a sub-1 m idealized shape may be important. In this paper, we compare models impacting high-fidelity models of the spacecraft based on the CAD geometry with various simplified impactors, in order to assess the potential importance of this effect. We find that the difference between the simplest impactor geometries (such as a uniform sphere) and the real spacecraft is measurable, and has an interesting dependence on the material properties of the asteroid itself.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Planetary Defense System For Responsive Space Missions

As King et al succinctly write, “Collision between the Earth and small objects in the solar system are known to occur regularly, and can result in extinction-level events at their most energetic or more commonly widespread loss of life or economic destruction even for relatively low-energy impacts.” Currently, the JPL Sentry System and the NASA NEO Surveyor mission track, identify, and monitor potential asteroid threats. The JPL Sentry System4 is an automated collision monitoring system which scans the current asteroid catalog for potential impact trajectories with Earth. A 2017 study led by P. Tricarico titled “The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations” analyzes the combined observations of nine leading asteroid surveys. The NASA NEO Surveyor mission seeks to identify 90% of near-Earth objects (NEO) with diameters greater than 140 meters (460 feet) within 10 years. The NEO Surveyor combines data from two infrared imaging detectors to measure NEO size, composition, shape, rotational state, and orbits. Recently, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the orbit of asteroid moon Dimorphos in 2022. This demonstrated that orbit alteration is possible. Thus, collisions between the Earth and asteroids are both likely and demonstrate potential for great harm. There is ongoing work to identify, catalog, and track potential threats. However, when a threat is identified there is not yet a system in place to target the threatening asteroid and defend the planet from potentially existential threats. Building on the DART Mission, we explore a planetary defense system to mitigate asteroid threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Science & Technology Review (April/May 2023)

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), featured beginning on p.4, has been a testament to Lawrence Livermore’s multidisciplinary expertise. For DART, the Laboratory developed planetary defense strategies, modeled materials and impacts, and utilized advanced machine learning to create and evaluate multitudes of impact scenarios—informing prediction and analysis of the intercept of a small spacecraft with a much larger asteroid of unknown properties. The success of the project heralds a bright future for space science and security work at the Laboratory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evidence of Recent Material Transport within a Binary Asteroid System

Images acquired by the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) before its impact into Dimorphos—the moon of the Didymos binary asteroid system—unexpectedly reveal a set of discontinuous rays spanning the imaged surface. These albedo features are visible only after correcting for lighting differences, which normalize the effects of the pervasive boulders that cover the surface. Comparison to physical experiments and numerical simulations shows that these bright, fan-shaped albedo features are consistent with the aftermath of a low-velocity impact into a field of boulders and provide our first direct evidence for the transfer of material in a binary asteroid system due to the shedding material from radiative torques. Parts of these and possible additional albedo markings from the reentry of boulders after the DART impact may be visible to the Hera mission when it explores the post-DART Didymos system.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗