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DOE OSTI2024

Continental rift evolution and drainage reorganization along the Dead Sea rift since the Miocene

The Dead Sea fault is a section of the Arabian-African plate boundary. Widespread field relations indicate that three major drainage systems (stages) occupied the landscape west of the Dead Sea fault since its initiation at ca. 20 Ma. Specifically, (1) an early to middle Miocene drainage system, only minorly reconfigured by the fault (all sediments of this system belong to the Hazeva Formation); (2) a late Miocene to early Pleistocene fault-parallel drainage system named Paran-Neqarot (all sediments of this system belong to the Arava and Zehiha Formations; and (3) the early Pleistocene to present drainage configuration. The temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 1 are generally constrained by radiometric dating of interfingering volcanic units, and the onset and temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 3 are well constrained by cosmogenic 10 Be surface exposure ages. The timing and longevity of the rift-parallel drainage (stage 2) have until now been evasive to direct dating. The overall time gap between stages 1 and 3 is ~12–13 million years. Thus, an early age (within this time gap) of stage 2 would imply an immediate response of drainage reorganization to rift tectonics, while a later age of this drainage system would imply a delayed response. We present 11 10 Be- 26 Al cosmogenic burial ages of alluvial and colluvial units related to the fault-parallel drainage system (stage 2), which collectively constrain the time of deposition of the Arava Formation sediments in the central Negev to ca. 8 Ma. The general lack of stratigraphic order, together with the large dispersion of ages both across and within the sampling sites, attests to significant recycling of sediments from drainage stage 1 into the Arava Formation deposits. The termination of Arava and Zehiha Formation sediment deposition at ca. 1.8 Ma was determined previously using cosmogenic exposure ages of desert pavements that cover the formations. Combining the previously published data with our new data, we established the longevity and character of the Paran-Neqarot drainage system. In conlcusion, this framework highlights the temporal aspect of drainage system build-up and collapse as it responded to transform and extensional plate boundary tectonics during the Neogene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles

Abstract. The pathways and timing of drainage from the inundated centers of ice-wedge polygons in a warming climate have important implications for carbon flushing, advective heat transport, and transitions from methane to carbon dioxide dominated emissions. Here, we expand on previous research using a recently developed analytical model of drainage from a low-centered polygon. Specifically, we perform (1) a calibration to field data identifying necessary model refinements and (2) a rigorous model sensitivity analysis that expands on previously published indications of polygon drainage characteristics. This research provides intuition on inundated polygon drainage by presenting the first in-depth analysis of drainage within a polygon based on hydrogeological first principles. We verify a recently developed analytical solution of polygon drainage through a calibration to a season of field measurements. Due to the parsimony of the model, providing the potential that it could fail, we identify the minimum necessary refinements that allow the model to match water levels measured in a low-centered polygon. We find that (1) the measured precipitation must be increased by a factor of around 2.2, and (2) the vertical soil hydraulic conductivity must decrease with increasing thaw depth. Model refinement (1) accounts for runoff from rims into the ice-wedge polygon pond during precipitation events and possible rain gauge undercatch, while refinement (2) accounts for the decreasing permeability of deeper soil layers. The calibration to field measurements supports the validity of the model, indicating that it is able to represent ice-wedge polygon drainage dynamics. We then use the analytical solution in non-dimensional form to provide a baseline for the effects of polygon aspect ratios (radius to thaw depth) and coefficient of hydraulic conductivity anisotropy (horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity) on drainage pathways and temporal depletion of ponded water from inundated ice-wedge polygon centers. By varying the polygon aspect ratio, we evaluate the relative effect of polygon size (width), inter-annual increases in active-layer thickness, and seasonal increases in thaw depth on drainage. The results of our sensitivity analysis rigorously confirm a previous analysis indicating that most drainage through the active layer occurs along an annular region of the polygon center near the rims. This has important implications for transport of nutrients (such as dissolved organic carbon) and advection of heat towards ice-wedge tops. We also provide a comprehensive investigation of the effect of polygon aspect ratio and anisotropy on drainage timing and patterns, expanding on previously published research. Our results indicate that polygons with large aspect ratios and high anisotropy will have the most distributed drainage, while polygons with large aspect ratios and low anisotropy will have their drainage most focused near their periphery and will drain most slowly. Polygons with small aspect ratios and high anisotropy will drain most quickly. These results, based on parametric investigation of idealized scenarios, provide a baseline for further research considering the geometric and hydraulic complexities of ice-wedge polygons.

Harp, Dylan R. (ORCID:0000000197778000)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-Dominated Watersheds Using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model

In agriculture-dominated watersheds where natural drainage is poor, agricultural ditches (narrow engineered channels) and tile drains (perforated pipes) are widely employed to enhance surface and subsurface drainage, respectively. Despite their relatively small scale, these features exert substantial control over the hydro-biogeochemical function of watersheds and their effects need to be represented in the models. We introduce a novel strategy to incorporate the effects of artificial agricultural drainage into a fully distributed basin-scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrology models. In our approach, narrow agriculture ditches for surface drainage are resolved efficiently using ditch-aligned computational meshes that are hydrologically conditioned to ensure connectivity in the stream/ditch network. For tile drainage in the subsurface, we use the physically based Hooghoudt's drainage equation as a subgrid model and route the water drained through tiles to the nearest ditch. Without site-specific calibration, this model reproduced observed streamflow in the Portage River Watershed (>1,000 km 2 ) as recorded by a USGS gauge with good accuracy (normalized KGE = 0.81) and outperformed a calibrated SWAT model (normalized KGE = 0.68). Numerical experiments confirm that artificial drainage reduces surface inundations and effectively controls the water table. At the watershed scale, artificial drainage increases baseflow but has little effect on watershed discharges above the 90th percentile. The strong physical underpinnings and reduced need for calibration allow us to study the impacts of artificial drainage on distributed hydrological response in terms of fluxes and states and provide a platform for investigating watershed-scale nutrient transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Soil Oxygen Dynamics: A Key Mediator of Tile Drainage Impacts on Coupled Hydrological, Biogeochemical, and Crop Systems

Tile drainage removes excess water and is an essential, widely adopted management practice to enhance crop productivity in the US Midwest and throughout the world. Tile drainage has been shown to significantly change hydrological and biogeochemical cycles by lowering the water table and reducing the residence time of soil water, although examining the complex interactions and feedbacks in an integrated hydrology–biogeochemistry–crop system remains elusive. Oxygen dynamics are critical to unraveling these interactions and have been ignored or oversimplified in existing models. Understanding these impacts is essential, particularly so because tile drainage has been highlighted as an adaptation under projected wetter springs and drier summers in the changing climate in the US Midwest. We used the ecosys model that uniquely incorporates first-principle soil oxygen dynamics and crop oxygen uptake mechanisms to quantify the impacts of tile drainage on hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and crop growth in corn–soybean rotation fields. The model was validated with data from a multi-treatment, multi-year experiment in Washington, IA. The relative root mean square error (rRMSE) for the corn and soybean yield in validation is 5.66 % and 12.57 %, respectively. The Pearson coefficient (r) of the monthly tile flow during the growing season is 0.78. Plant oxygen stress turns out as an emergent property of the equilibrium between the soil oxygen supply and biological demand. The impact of tile drainage on the system is achieved through a series of coupled feedback mechanisms. The model results show that tile drainage reduces the soil water content and enhances soil oxygenation. It additionally increases the subsurface discharge and elevates inorganic nitrogen leaching, with seasonal variations influenced by climate and crop phenology. The improved aerobic condition alleviates crop oxygen stress during wet springs, thereby promoting crop root growth during the early growth stage. The development of greater root density, in turn, mitigates water stress during dry summers, leading to an overall increase in the crop yield by ∼6 %. These functions indicate the potential of tile drainage in bolstering crop resilience to climate change and the use of this modeling tool for large-scale assessments of tile drainage. The model reveals the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the agroecosystem response to drainage on the coupled hydrology, biogeochemistry, and crop system dynamics.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Soil oxygen dynamics: a key mediator of tile drainage impacts on coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, and crop systems

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

An Urban Drainage Scheme for Large-Scale Flood Models

As flood modeling spatial resolutions get finer, physical processes normally neglected, such as urban drainage, must be accounted for. Here, we describe and evaluate an urban drainage scheme for large-scale flood models. The parameterization accounts for urban imperviousness, and water flow over streets and through a prescribed urban drainage network. A parameter sensitivity analysis is performed during three major extreme floods over Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil, at ∼200 m spatial resolution. Results show that, compared to a hypothetical case without urban drainage, representing a drainage network decreases urban flooding during selected extreme events across Rio de Janeiro by 31–53 %. Such a decrease is caused by an underground water storage of up to 2.5 billion m3 across the city during flood peaks. Underground water storage and transport smooth out and delay peak flows by a few hours over major rivers and channels draining the city. Simulations also indicate that the number of residents exposed to flooding drops by 60–80 %, from ∼5 million to 1–2 million, when an urban drainage system is considered during extreme events. Similar proportions are found for social infrastructure (i.e., schools and hospitals) exposed to flooding. Results reveal that racial minority and low-income populations could disproportionally be exposed to extreme floodings across the city. We conclude that representing urban drainage has a substantial impact on flood exposure and should be accounted for in fine resolution modeling. The proposed scheme is particularly useful in poorly monitored cities and where extreme floods are a frequent hazard yet to be tackled.

Urban drainage↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Challenges in predicting Greenland supraglacial lake drainages at the regional scale

A leading hypothesis for the mechanism of fast supraglacial lake drainages is that transient extensional stresses briefly allow crevassing in otherwise compressional ice flow regimes. Lake water can then hydrofracture a crevasse to the base of the ice sheet, and river inputs can maintain this connection as a moulin. If future ice sheet models are to accurately represent moulins, we must understand their formation processes, timescales, and locations. Here, we use remote-sensing velocity products to constrain the relationship between strain rates and lake drainages across ∼ 1600 ksq.m in Pâkitsoq, western Greenland, between 2002–2019. We find significantly more extensional background strain rates at moulins associated with fast-draining lakes than at slow-draining or non-draining lake moulins. We test whether moulins in more extensional background settings drain their lakes earlier, but we find insignificant correlation. To investigate the frequency at which strain-rate transients are associated with fast lake drainage, we examined Landsat-derived strain rates over 16 and 32 d periods at moulins associated with 240 fast-lake-drainage events over 18 years. A low signal-to-noise ratio, the presence of water, and the multi-week repeat cycle obscured any resolution of the hypothesized transient strain rates. Our results support the hypothesis that transient strain rates drive fast lake drainages. However, the current generation of ice sheet velocity products, even when stacked across hundreds of fast lake drainages, cannot resolve these transients. Thus, observational progress in understanding lake drainage initiation will rely on field-based tools such as GPS networks and photogrammetry.

Kristin Poinar↗

DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities for Treatment and Reuse of Agricultural Drainage in the United States

Irrigation accounts for 42% of the total freshwater withdrawals in the United States. Climate change, the pressure of a growing population, degrading water quality, and increased competition from other sectors could constrain continuous supply to meet future agricultural water demand. This study presents an evaluation framework to assess the potential reuse of agricultural drainage water for crop irrigation. Using a regional approach, we review the current state of agricultural drainage treatment and reuse and the institutional, economic, and other barriers that can influence the reuse decision. In the 31 eastern states, agricultural drainage contains valuable nutrients that can be reused for irrigation with minimal treatment, while the 17 western states struggle with large volumes of saline drainage that can contain constituents of concern (e.g., selenium), preventing reuse without treatment. Using a new decision-support tool called WaterTAP3, a potential treatment train for saline agricultural drainage was analyzed to identify treatment challenges, research needs, and the potential implementation at a larger scale. As demonstrated by our case study, desalination of agricultural drainage is costly and energy intensive and will require sizable investments to fully develop and optimize technologies as well as manage the generated waste and brine.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban stormwater drainage system in Tampa, Florida (USA)

Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections” Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from –40% to 160%, and –40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential of water quality wetlands to mitigate habitat losses from agricultural drainage modernization

Given widespread biodiversity declines, a growing global human population, and demands to improve water quality, there is an immediate need to explore land management solutions that support multiple ecosystem services. Agricultural water quality wetlands designed to provide both water quality benefits and wetland and grassland habitat are an emerging restoration solution that may reverse habitat declines in intensive agricultural areas. Installation of water quality wetlands in the Upper Midwest, USA, when considered alongside the repair and modification of aging agricultural tile drainage infrastructure, is a likely scenario that may mitigate nutrient pollution exported from agricultural systems and improve crop yields. The capacity of water quality wetlands to provide habitat within the wetland pool and the surrounding grassland is not well-studied, particularly with respect to potential habitat changes resulting from drainage infrastructure upgrades. For the current study, we produced spatially explicit models of 37 catchments distributed throughout an important region for agriculture and biodiversity, the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa. Four scenarios were considered - with and without improved drainage and with and without water quality wetlands - to estimate the net potential habitat implications of these scenarios for amphibians, grassland birds, and wild bees. Model results indicate that drainage modification alone will likely result in moderate direct losses of suitable amphibian habitat and large declines in overall habitat quality. However, inclusion of water quality wetlands at the catchment scale may mitigate these amphibian habitat losses while also increasing grassland bird and pollinator habitat. In conclusion, the impacts of water quality wetlands and drainage modernization on waterfowl in the region require additional study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibration of V-Notch and Compound Weirs for Subsurface Drainage Water Level Control Structures

Highlights Accurate discharge estimation is important when evaluating edge-of-field conservation practices. V-notch weir equations were developed for three sizes of subsurface drainage water level control structures. Compound weir equations were developed for subsurface drainage water level control structures. The compound weir equation accurately estimates discharge for flows within and overtopping the V-notch. Abstract.Numerous edge-of-field conservation practices use subsurface drainage water level control structures to monitor water levels and estimate discharge. In a control structure, procedures for calculating discharge when flow depth (head) exceeds the V-notch depth and overflows in the rectangular portion of the compound weir (CW) are ambiguous. In this study, we developed calibration equations for V-notch weirs in Agri Drain inline water level control structures of different sizes for flows within the V-notch and overtopping flow events. The discharge equation for overtopping events (Q CW , L s -1 ) was determined as: Q CW = a 1 (h b1 -h 1 b1 )+a 2 (W e -W v )h 1 b2 , where h and h 1 are heads above vertex/bottom and top of V-notch (cm), respectively, W is the effective crest width of rectangular weir (cm), W v is the top width of V-notch (cm), a 1 and b 1 are parameters for V-notch weir obtained by calibration, and a 2 and b 2 are calibration parameters for rectangular weir obtained from literature. Results were compared with a weir equation available in the literature (Q V+R ), which combines a V-notch equation with a head equal to V-depth and a rectangular weir equation for flow above V-depth. Discharge at overflow was estimated with high accuracy with Q CW, whereas Q V+R underestimated discharge (e.g., PBIAS of 0.67% vs. 17.82% for a 15.2 cm structure). An example using Q V+R resulted in a 14% lower annual estimation of nitrate-N load diverted to a saturated buffer than Q CW due to underestimation of drainage discharge during overflow events. Results suggest that the developed equation (Q CW ) accurately estimates discharge and will thus improve the estimated N load compared to Q V+R . Keywords: Compound weir, Flow monitoring, Subsurface drainage, V-notch weir, Water level control structure, Weir calibration.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS1984

Fluvial drainage systems: Margaritifer Sinus and Agyre (NC, NE) quadrangles, Mars

Fluvial drainage systems, delineated by mapping on stereo pairs of Viking Orbiter images, have developed in various-sized basins in the Margaritifer Sinus (MC-19) and Agyre (MC-26) Quadrangles, Mars. The Ladon Valles system is the largest, draining into and through two multi-ringed impact basins. Smaller fluvial basins to the southeast of the Ladon structural basin appear to have internal drainage. An intermediate-scale fluvial basin containing Himera Vallis extends along a north-south axis at 22 W and opens northward toward outflow channels south of Margaritifer Chaos. Stereo-pair mapping was extended furhter to the east, in MC-19 Ne, Se, and MC-26 NE, to investigate sources of outflow to the Ares Vallis system. The direction of flow in the channel at the northeast quadrant of the Ladon Basin is unresolved at present because of the poor quality of images available to form stereo pairs. However, an easterly drainage basin boundary running north-south along longitude 9 W, and extending westward at latitude 32-35 S, encloses a series of longitudinal drainage systems. Both the Parana Valles-Loire Vallis system and the Samara Valles system appear to drain in a northwesterly direction. The Samara flows to the Himera drainage basin, and the Parana-Loire to the northeast Ladon channel area.

Boothroyd, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A diffusion-limited aggregation model for the evolution of drainage networks

We propose a modified diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) model for the evolution of fluvial drainage networks. Random walkers are introduced randomly on a grid, and each two-dimensional random walk proceeds until the walker finds a drainage network on which to accrete. This model for headward growth of drainage networks generates drainage patterns remarkably similar to actual drainages. The model also predicts statistical features which agree with actual networks, including the frequency-order (bifurcation) ratio (R(sub b) = 3.98) and the stream length-order (R(sub r) = 2.09). Using the definition of network fractal dimension D = log R(sub b)/log R(sub r), we find that our DLA model gives D = 1.87, near the observed range of D approximately equal to 1.80 - 1.85.

Masek, Jeffrey G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Links Between Acceleration, Melting, and Supraglacial Lake Drainage of the Western Greenland Ice Sheet

The impact of increasing summer melt on the dynamics and stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet is not fully understood. Mounting evidence suggests seasonal evolution of subglacial drainage mitigates or counteracts the ability of surface runoff to increase basal sliding. Here, we compare subdaily ice velocity and uplift derived from nine Global Positioning System stations in the upper ablation zone in west Greenland to surface melt and supraglacial lake drainage during summer 2007. Starting around day 173, we observe speedups of 6-41% above spring velocity lasting approximately 40 days accompanied by sustained surface uplift at most stations, followed by a late summer slowdown. After initial speedup, we see a spatially uniform velocity response across the ablation zone and strong diurnal velocity variations during periods of melting. Most lake drainages were undetectable in the velocity record, and those that were detected only perturbed velocities for approximately 1 day, suggesting preexisting drainage systems could efficiently drain large volumes of water. The dynamic response to melt forcing appears to 1) be driven by changes in subglacial storage of water that is delivered in diurnal and episodic pulses, and 2) decrease over the course of the summer, presumably as the subglacial drainage system evolves to greater efficiency. The relationship between hydrology and ice dynamics observed is similar to that observed on mountain glaciers, suggesting that seasonally large water pressures under the ice sheet largely compensate for the greater ice thickness considered here. Thus, increases in summer melting may not guarantee faster seasonal ice flow.

Hoffman, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Links Between Acceleration, Melting, and Supraglacial Lake Drainage of the Western Greenland Ice Sheet

The impact of increasing summer melt on the dynamics and stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet is not fully understood. Mounting evidence suggests seasonal evolution of subglacial drainage mitigates or counteracts the ability of surface runoff to increase basal sliding. Here, we compare subdaily ice velocity and uplift derived from nine Global Positioning System stations in the upper ablation zone in west Greenland to surface melt and supraglacial lake drainage during summer 2007. Starting around day 173, we observe speedups of 6-41% above spring velocity lasting 40 days accompanied by sustained surface uplift at most stations, followed by a late summer slowdown. After initial speedup, we see a spatially uniform velocity response across the ablation zone and strong diurnal velocity variations during periods of melting. Most lake drainages were undetectable in the velocity record, and those that were detected only perturbed velocities for approx 1 day, suggesting preexisting drainage systems could efficiently drain large volumes of water. The dynamic response to melt forcing appears to (1) be driven by changes in subglacial storage of water that is delivered in diurnal and episodic pulses, and (2) decrease over the course of the summer, presumably as the subglacial drainage system evolves to greater efficiency. The relationship between hydrology and ice dynamics observed is similar to that observed on mountain glaciers, suggesting that seasonally large water pressures under the ice sheet largely compensate for the greater ice thickness considered here. Thus, increases in summer melting may not guarantee faster seasonal ice flow.

Hoffman, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Effect of Firn-Aquifer Drainage on the Greenland Subglacial System or Subglacial Efficiency and Storage Modified by the Temporal Pattern of High-Elevation Meltwater Input

Ice flow in marginal region of the Greenland Ice Sheet dynamically responds to summer melting as surface meltwater is routed through the supraglacial hydrologic system to the bed of the ice sheet via crevasses and moulins. Given the expected increases in surface melt production and extent, and the potential for high elevation surface-to-bed connections, it is imperative to understand how meltwater delivered to the bed from different high-elevation supraglacial storage features affects the evolution of the subglacial hydrologic system and associated ice dynamics. Here, we use the two-dimensional subglacial hydrologic model, GLaDS, which includes distributed and channelized water flow, to test how the subglacial system of an idealized outlet glacier responds to cases of high-elevation firn-aquifer-type and supraglacial-lake-type englacial drainage over the course of 5 years. Model outputs driven by these high elevation drainage types are compared to steady-state model results, where the subglacial system only receives the 1980- 2016 mean MERRA-2 runoff via low-elevation moulins. Across all experiments, the subglacial hydrologic system displays inter-annual memory, resulting in multiyear declines in subglacial pressure during the onset of seasonal melting and growth of subglacial channels. The gradual addition of water in firn-aquifer-type drainage scenarios resulted in small increases in subglacial water storage but limited changes in subglacial efficiency and channelization. Rapid, supraglacial- lake-type drainage resulted in short-term local increases in subglacial water pressure and storage, which gave way to spatially extensive decreases in subglacial pressure and downstream channelization. These preliminary results suggest that the character of high-elevation englacial drainage can have a strong, and possibly outsized, control on subglacial efficiency throughout the ablation zone. Therefore, understanding both how high elevation meltwater is stored supraglacially and the probability of crevassing at high elevations will play an important role in how the subglacial system, proglacial discharge and ice motion will respond to future increases in surface melt production and runoff.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗