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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multivariate Drought Monitoring, Propagation, and Projection Using Bias-Corrected General Circulation Models

Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability and changes in drought characteristics. This study aims to understand multimodel global drought monitoring, propagation, and projection by utilizing a multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) during the historical (1959–2014) and future (2045–2100) periods under two socioeconomic pathways SSPs (370 and 585), derived from the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on the energy metrics, the multivariate bias correction method outperformed other techniques in correcting the biases in the CMIP6 drought representation. The drought indicators demonstrate distinct categories for meteorological, hydrological, and multivariate droughts. There were significant high cross correlations between Heatwave Total Length (HWTL) and MSDI in Africa and South America for all lagged times. Europe and North America generally saw the maximum MSDI drought duration (228 months) during the historical period. For future projections, Africa recorded the maximum drought duration (197 months), while Europe witnessed the minimum drought duration for SSP 370 (171 months), and North America (149 months) for SSP 585. Furthermore, during the historical period in tropical Africa, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought was slower during the wet months than during the dry months. Under the SSP 370 future projection, there was a shift in the long period of meteorological-hydrological propagation from the middle and late wet months to the beginning of the wet months in tropical Africa. Therefore, tracking and projecting drought characteristics is vital for understanding the risk of drought-related consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Accurate Vegetation and Non-Vegetation Differentiation Approach Based on Land Cover Classification

Accurate vegetation detection is important for many applications, such as crop yield estimation, land cover land use monitoring, urban growth monitoring, drought monitoring, etc. Popular conventional approaches to vegetation detection incorporate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which uses the red and near infrared (NIR) bands, and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), which uses red, NIR, and the blue bands. Although NDVI and EVI are efficient, their accuracies still have room for further improvement. In this paper, we propose a new approach to vegetation detection based on land cover classification. That is, we first perform an accurate classification of 15 or more land cover types. The land covers such as grass, shrub, and trees are then grouped into vegetation and other land cover types such as roads, buildings, etc. are grouped into non-vegetation. Similar to NDVI and EVI, only RGB and NIR bands are needed in our proposed approach. If Laser imaging, Detection, and Ranging (LiDAR) data are available, our approach can also incorporate LiDAR in the detection process. Results using a well-known dataset demonstrated that the proposed approach is feasible and achieves more accurate vegetation detection than both NDVI and EVI. In particular, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach performed 6% better than NDVI and 50% better than EVI in terms of overall accuracy (OA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought

Abstract. Snow droughts are commonly defined as below-average snowpack at a point in time, typically 1 April in the western United States (wUS). This definition is valuable for interpreting the state of the snowpack but obscures the temporal evolution of snow drought. Borrowing from dynamical systems theory, we applied phase diagrams to visually examine the daily evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) and accumulated precipitation conditions in maritime, intermountain, and continental snow climates in the wUS using station observations as well as spatially distributed estimates of SWE and precipitation. Using a percentile-based drought definition, phase diagrams of SWE and precipitation highlighted decision-relevant aspects of snow drought such as onset, evolution, and termination. The phase diagram approach can be used in tandem with spatially distributed estimates of daily SWE and precipitation to reveal variability in snow drought type and extent. When combined with streamflow or other environmental data, phase diagrams and spatial estimates of snow drought conditions can help inform drought monitoring and early warning systems and help link snow drought type and evolution to impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and recreation. A web tool is introduced allowing users to create real-time or historic snow drought phase diagrams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Normalized Solar-Induced Fluorescence Responds Earlier Than Vegetation Indices to the 2019 North China Plain Drought

Recently, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from satellites has shown potential for evaluating vegetation status and stress responses. Fluorescence quantum yield ($Φ_F$) is essentially linked to vegetation stress. However, the complex physiological and structural responses of SIF and $Φ_F$ to drought need further study. This study normalized SIF as SIFn to account for angular variations and fluctuations in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), aiming for more accurate drought monitoring. SIFn anomalies were compared to historical baselines (2019–2021 averages) of vegetation indices (VIs), raw SIF, and $Φ_F$ during a 2019 drought in the North China Plain (NCP). Here, the results show SIFn provides an effective method for drought monitoring, showing the earliest decline compared to raw SIF, VIs, and $Φ_F$. In the first two weeks of drought, SIFn decreased by 8.2%, 7.0%, 12.5%, and 8.2% across the four NCP subdivisions. SIFn outperformed other indicators, proving sensitive to early drought detection. SIFn was also examined for tracking drought alleviation by rainfall. The uncertainty under different viewing geometries was quantified. SIFn anomalies showed a strong correlation with rainfall anomalies (R: 0.45 ~ 0.52) and meteorological factors like PAR (R: 0.80 ~ 0.84) and relative humidity (R:0.52 ~ 0.54). The correlation of near-infrared reflectance (NIRv) and $Φ_F$ anomalies with SIF was weak during drought onset (R: 0.16 ~ 0.32) but strong at the end (R: 0.83 ~ 0.87). These suggest both canopy structure (mainly characterized by NIRv) and vegetation chlorophyll ($Φ_F$) are impacted by drought and influence SIF at different stages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: "Reply to ‘The challenge of defining effectively-no-snow’"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Reply to ‘The challenge of defining effectively-no-snow’" published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2026. In this reply, we argue that the 10th percentile of peak SWE (Snow Water Equivalent), which we propose in the original article, can be used as intended given it's a standardized, impact-based benchmark for comparing snow conditions across regions, not as a literal measure of snow absence. We present new evidence with SNOwpack TELemetry (SNOTEL) data showing that years meeting the threshold are overwhelmingly associated with subsequent drought (given United States Drought Monitor conditions), supporting its hydrologic and societal relevance. We conclude that while the distinction between "effectively no snow" and "zero snow" should be clearly communicated, the original definition remains appropriate for assessing impacts on snow-dependent water systems. The file code_nree_ML_reply_2026.Rmd contains the main processing scripts which analyze the SNOTEL data. Data from the US Drought Monitor was downloaded at: https://usdmdataservices using the Get Drought Severity Statistics By Area Percent' option, saved to the *_HUC4_delineated.csv files (Hydrologic Unit Code), which are labeled accordingly. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

EARTH SCIENCE > TERRESTRIAL HYDROSPHERE > SNOW/ICE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A global daily soil moisture dataset derived from Chinese FengYun Microwave Radiation Imager (MWRI)(2010–2019)

Surface soil moisture (SSM) is an important variable in drought monitoring, floods predicting, weather forecasting, etc. and plays a critical role in water and heat exchanges between land and atmosphere. SSM products from L-band observations, such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission, have proven to be optimal global estimations. Although X-band has a lower sensitivity to soil moisture than that of L-band, Chinese FengYun-3 series satellites (FY-3A/B/C/D) have provided sustainable and daily multiple SSM products from X-band since 2008. This research developed a new global SSM product (NNsm-FY) from FY-3B MWRI from 2010 to 2019, transferred high accuracy of SMAP L-band to FY-3B X-band. The NNsm-FY shows good agreement with in-situ observations and SMAP product and has a higher accuracy than that of official FY-3B product. With this new dataset, Chinese FY-3 satellites may play a larger role and provide opportunities of sustainable and longer-term soil moisture data record for hydrological study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: Emerging wild virus of native grass bioenergy feedstock is well established in the Midwestern USA and associated with premature stand senescence

This dataset includes values for the prevalence of switchgrass mosaic virus (Genus Marafivirus, Family Tymoviridae) detected with molecular diagnostics (RT-PCR) in individual Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) plants and in Graminella leafhoppers that feed on them. Surveys were conducted in 15 sites in August 2012. Stands surveyed had been established for some time and represent a range of landscape contexts. Measures of stand height and percent senescence were also collected. Land cover composition surrounding each site was calculated from the USDA-NASS Cropland Data Layer and estimates of drought impact were derived from the US Drought Monitor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monitoring Terrestrial Water Storage, Drought and Seasonal Changes in Central Oklahoma With Ambient Seismic Noise

Abstract Significant imbalances in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and severe drought have been observed around the world as a consequence of climate changes. Improving our ability to monitor TWS and drought is critical for water‐resource management and water‐deficit estimation. We use continuous seismic ambient noise to monitor temporal evolution of near‐surface seismic velocity, dv / v , in central Oklahoma from 2013 to 2022. The derived dv / v is found to be negatively correlated with gravitational measurements and groundwater depths, showing the impact of groundwater storage on seismic velocities. The hydrological effects involving droughts and recharge of groundwater occur on a multi‐year time scale and dominate the overall derived velocity changes. The thermoelastic response to atmospheric temperature variations occurs primarily on a yearly timescale and dominates the superposed seasonal velocity changes in this study. The occurrences of droughts appear simultaneously with local peaks of dv / v , demonstrating the sensitivity of near‐surface seismic velocities to droughts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Is satellite Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence more indicative than vegetation indices under drought condition?

Droughts represent one of the most severe abiotic stress factors that could result in great crop yield loss. Numerous vegetation indices have been proposed for monitoring the vegetation condition under stress and assessing drought impacts on yield loss. However, the understanding and comparison between traditional vegetation indices (VIs) and the newly emerging satellite Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) for monitoring vegetation condition is still limited especially under drought stress and at multiple spatial scales. In this study, the potential of satellite observation SIF for monitoring corn response to drought was investigated based on the 2012 drought in the US Corn Belt. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used here to quantify drought. We found that all SPEI were above –1, except for July (–1.27), August (–1.39) and September (–1.14) in 2012, indicating the severity of this drought. We examined the relationship between satellite measurements of SIF, SIF yield , VIs (e.g., NDVI and EVI) and SPEI. Results indicated that SIF yield was sensitive to drought and SIF captured the stress more accurately both at the regional and state scales for the US Corn Belt. Quantitatively, SIF yield had a high correlation with SPEI (r = 0.987, p < 0.05) over the entire Corn Belt, and it indicated losses in response to drought approximately one month earlier than SIF/NDVI/EVI. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that SIF could be trusted as an effective indicator to study the relationship between GPP (R 2 ≥ 0.8664, p < 0.01) under drought conditions across the Corn Belt. Finally, this study highlighted the advantage of using satellite SIF observations to monitor the drought stress on crop growth especially GPP at regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging hyperspectral phenotyping for accurate, non-destructive prediction of metabolite profiles in poplar under drought stress

Accurately predicting drought tolerance in woody perennial bioenergy crops is critical for sustainable biomass production under fluctuating precipitation. Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) in the visible-near-infrared (VNIR) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) ranges offers a promising approach for predicting plant biochemical traits, yet its application in metabolite profiling remains underexplored. We integrated VNIR+SWIR HSI with untargeted metabolomics to investigate drought-induced metabolic shifts in Populus leaves from eight Populus genotypes. Metabolite profiling identified 127 compounds, with 73 showing significant drought responses spanning amino acids (AA), carbohydrates (CHO), phenolic glycosides (PG), organic acids (OA), fatty acids and alcohols (FA), terpenes (T), phenolic metabolites (P), and unclassified metabolites. Spectral analysis revealed consistently higher reflectance across VNIR and SWIR wavelengths in drought-stressed plants, corresponding with increased accumulation of AA and reduced CHO and PG levels. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression modeling identified robust spectral predictors of metabolite concentrations, associating VNIR wavelengths (500–700 nm) predominantly with AA and P, whereas SWIR wavelengths (1680–1700 nm) reliably predicted CHO, OA, and T. Several stable spectral-metabolite associations persisted across the two watering regimes (drought vs. well-watered), highlighting their potential as spectral biomarkers for non-destructive stress monitoring. Minimal genotype-specific variation suggests that observed spectral and metabolic responses were driven primarily by environmental factors, likely reflecting limited genetic diversity among the commercial Populus genotypes examined. This work establishes VNIR+SWIR hyperspectral imaging as a powerful, non-destructive phenotyping tool for precision monitoring and targeted improvement of drought resilience in bioenergy crops.

Biochemical trait prediction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Springtime Drought Shifts Carbon Partitioning of Recent Photosynthates in 10-Year Old Picea mariana Trees, Causing Restricted Canopy Development

Springtime bud-break and shoot development induces substantial carbon (C) costs in trees. Drought stress during shoot development can impede C uptake and translocation. This is therefore a channel through which water shortage can lead to restricted shoot expansion and physiological capacity, which in turn may impact annual canopy C uptake. We studied effects of drought and re-hydration on early season shoot development, C uptake and partitioning in five individual 10-year old Picea mariana [black spruce] trees to identify and quantify dynamics of key morphological/physiological processes. Trees were subjected to one of two treatments: (i) well-watered control or (ii) drought and rehydration. We monitored changes in morphological [shoot volume, leaf mass area (LMA)], biochemical [osmolality, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC)] and physiological [rates of respiration (R d ) and light-saturated photosynthesis ( A sat )] processes during shoot development. Further, to study functional compartmentalization and use of new assimilates, we 13 C-pulse labeled shoots at multiple development stages, and measured isotopic signatures of leaf respiration, NSC pools and structural biomass. Shoot water potential dropped to a minimum of −2.5 MPa in shoots on the droughted trees. Development of the photosynthetic apparatus was delayed, as shoots on well-watered trees broke-even 14 days prior to shoots from trees exposed to water deficit. R d decreased with shoot maturation as growth respiration declined, and was lower in shoots exposed to drought. We found that shoot development was delayed by drought, and while rehydration resulted in recovery of A sat to similar levels as shoots on the well-watered trees, shoot volume remained lower. Water deficit during shoot expansion resulted in longer, yet more compact (i.e., with greater LMA) shoots with greater needle osmolality. The 12 C: 13 C isotopic patterns indicated that internal C partitioning and use was dependent on foliar developmental and hydration status. Shoots on drought-stressed trees prioritized allocating newly fixed C to respiration over structural components. In conclusion, temporary water deficit delayed new shoot development and resulted in greater LMA in black spruce. Since evergreen species such as black spruce retain active foliage for multiple years, impacts of early season drought on net primary productivity could be carried forward into subsequent years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic in vivo monitoring of granum structural changes of Ctenanthe setosa (Roscoe) Eichler during drought stress and subsequent recovery

Investigating the effects of drought stress and subsequent recovery on the structure and function of chloroplasts is essential to understanding how plants adapt to environmental stressors. We investigated Ctenanthe setosa (Roscoe) Eichler, an ornamental plant that can tolerate prolonged drought periods (40 and 49 days of water withdrawal). Conventional biochemical, biophysical, physiological and (ultra)structural methods combined for the first time in a higher plant with in vivo small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) were used to characterize the alterations induced by drought stress and subsequent recovery. Upon drought stress, no significant changes occurred in the chloroplast ultrastructure, chlorophyll content, 77K fluorescence emission spectra and maximal quantum efficiency of PSII (Qy dark), but the actual quantum efficiency of PSII (Qy light) decreased, the amounts of PSI-LHCII complexes and PSII monomers declined, and that of PSII supercomplexes increased. Thickness of the leaf and of the adaxial hypodermis, chloroplast length and granum repeat distance (RD) values decreased upon drought stress, as shown by light microscopy and SANS, respectively. Because of the very slight (nm-range) changes in RD values, the large biological variability (significant differences in RD values among the leaves and studied leaf regions) and the invasive sampling required for this method, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) hardly showed significant differences. On the other side, in situ SANS analyses provided a unique insight in vivo into the fast structural recovery of the granum structure of drought-stressed leaves, which happened already 18 h after re-watering, while functional and biochemical recovery took place on a longer time scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining genome-wide association studies and expression quantitative trait nucleotide mapping with molecular and genetic validations to identify transcriptional networks regulating drought tolerance in Populus

Objectives: (i). To deploy a large-scale experimental drought trial for up to 1000 unique genotypes of Populus equipping the sites with controlled irrigation and drought treatments that are fully automated and monitored. FULLY COMPLETED (ii) To test the hypothesis that a suite of traits identified for drought tolerance in P. nigra can be measured in drought and control treatments in the wide germplasm collection of P. trichocarpa. FULLY COMPLETED (iii) To use established and novel GWAS model approaches to identify gene loci linked to drought tolerance traits on interest in P. trichocarpa. FULLY COMPLETED (iv) To undertake comparative analysis of GWAS results for drought tolerance traits in P. nigra and P. trichocarpa. PARTIALLY COMPLETED – remains active (v) Using RNAseq in P. trichocarpa, in droughted and control treatments to identify cis- and trans-regulated eQTN. FULLY COMPLETED (vi) Validate up to 50 cis-QTNs, from network hubs using transient protoplast assays. FULLY COMPLETED (vii) To establish Agrobacterium-based gene editing protocols in Populus. FULLY COMPLETED (viii) To utilize early leads from previous research to investigate at least 6 candidate genes for drought tolerance in Populus. FULLY COMPLETED (ix) To validate up to 20 candidate genes for drought tolerance in P. trichocarpa refined from the long-list tested in the transient assays for cis-acting hub gene targets. PARTIALLY COMPLETED- remains active.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Acquisitive root exploration strategies help maintain higher peak sap flux rates during summer drought, but more root biomass does not

Roots are responsible for soil water uptake, yet little is known about how variation in fine-root traits relates to whole-tree water movement, particularly during periods of drought. By combining a 3-yr dataset monitoring sap flow rates with measures of fine-root biomass, length, and morphology across 10 tree species, we addressed hypotheses concerning the role of fine-root system size and morphology in determining tree responses to summer drought as well as potential changes in their relative importance under more severe droughts. Greater fine-root biomass and length did not enable trees to maintain high rates of sap flow during drought, whereas the morphological traits, specific root length and specific root area, were linked to sustained sap flow rates during drought. We found that all species, irrespective of root traits, progressively reduced their sap flow under more extreme drought conditions, although more acquisitive root morphology was still associated with smaller reductions. Our results run counter to long-standing assumptions that larger root systems are better able to access soil water and maintain photosynthetic activity during drought. Instead, we find evidence that root morphology at least partially determines the capacity for water uptake and movement as soil moisture declines.

drought↗