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At least 19 records

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error source—global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗

Statistical Analysis of Deflation in Covariance and Resultant Pc Values for AQUA, AURA and TERRA

This presentation will display statistical analysis performed for raw conjunction CDMs received for the EOS Aqua, Aura and Terra satellites within the period of February 2015 through July 2016. The analysis performed indicates a discernable deflation in covariance calculated at the JSpOC after the utilization of the dynamic drag consider parameter was implemented operationally in May 2015. As a result, the overall diminution in the conjunction plane intersection of the primary and secondary objects appears to be leading to reduced probability of collision (Pc) values for these conjunction events. This presentation also displays evidence for this theory with analysis of Pc trending plots using data calculated by the SpaceNav CRMS system.

raw conjunction↗

Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems

This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.

dynamic load modeling↗

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.↗

Impact of the Exciter and Governor Parameters on Forced Oscillations

In recent years, the frequency of forced oscillation events due to control system malfunctions or improper parameter settings has increased. Tuning the parameters of exciters and governor models is crucial for maintaining power system stability. Traditional simulation studies typically involve small transient disturbances or step changes to find optimal parameter sets, but existing optimization algorithms often fall short in fine-tuning for forced oscillations. Identifying the sensitive parameters within these control models is essential for ensuring stability during large, sustained disturbances. This study focuses on identifying these critical exciter and governor model parameters by analyzing their influence on sustained forced oscillations. Using Kundur’s two-area system, we analyze common exciter models such as SCRX, ESST1A, and AC7B, along with governor models like GAST, HYGOV, and GGOV1, utilizing PSS®E software version 34. Sustained forced oscillations are injected at generator-1 of area-1, with individual parameter changes dynamically simulated. By considering a local oscillation frequency of 1.4 Hz and an inter-area oscillation mode of 0.25 Hz, we analyze the impact of each parameter change on the magnitude and frequency of forced oscillations as well as on active and reactive power outputs. This novel approach highlights the most influential parameters of each tested model—such as exciter, governor, and turbine gains, as well as time constant parameters—on the impact of forced oscillations. Based on our findings, the sensitive parameters of each tested model are ranked. These would provide valuable insights for industry operators to fine-tune control settings during oscillation events, ultimately enhancing system stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nonlinear consider covariance analysis using a sigma-point filter formulation

The research reported here extends the mathematical formulation of nonlinear, sigma-point estimators to enable consider covariance analysis for dynamical systems. This paper presents a novel sigma-point consider filter algorithm, for consider-parameterized nonlinear estimation, following the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) variation on the sigma-point filter formulation, which requires no partial derivatives of dynamics models or measurement models with respect to the parameter list. It is shown that, consistent with the attributes of sigma-point estimators, a consider-parameterized sigma-point estimator can be developed entirely without requiring the derivation of any partial-derivative matrices related to the dynamical system, the measurements, or the considered parameters, which appears to be an advantage over the formulation of a linear-theory sequential consider estimator. It is also demonstrated that a consider covariance analysis performed with this 'partial-derivative-free' formulation yields equivalent results to the linear-theory consider filter, for purely linear problems.

covariance↗

Shape sensitivity analysis of wing static aeroelastic characteristics

A method is presented to calculate analytically the sensitivity derivatives of wing static aeroelastic characteristics with respect to wing shape parameters. The wing aerodynamic response under fixed total load is predicted with Weissinger's L-method; its structural response is obtained with Giles' equivalent plate method. The characteristics of interest include the spanwise distribution of lift, trim angle of attack, rolling and pitching moments, wind induced drag, as well as the divergence dynamic pressure. The shape parameters considered are the wing area, aspect ratio, taper ratio, sweep angle, and tip twist angle. Results of sensitivity studies indicate that: (1) approximations based on analytical sensitivity derivatives can be used over wide ranges of variations of the shape parameters considered, and (2) the analytical calculation of sensitivity derivatives is significantly less expensive than the conventional finite-difference alternative.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

Shape sensitivity analysis of wing static aeroelastic characteristics

A method is presented to calculate analytically the sensitivity derivatives of wing static aeroelastic characteristics with respect to wing shape parameters. The wing aerodynamic response under fixed total load is predicted using Weissinger's L-method; its structural response is obtained with Giles' equivalent plate method. The characteristics of interest in this study include the spanwise distribution of lift, trim angle of attack, rolling and pitching moments, wing induced drag as well as the divergence dynamic pressure. The shape parameters considered are the wing area, aspect ratio, taper ratio, sweep angle and tip twist angle. Results of sensitivity studies indicate that (1) approximations based on analytical sensitivity derivatives can be used for wide ranges of variations of the shape parameters considered and (2) the analytical calculation of sensitivity derivatives is significantly less expensive than the conventional finite difference alternative.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

Quaternion-Based Control Architecture for Determining Controllability/Maneuverability Limits

Dynamic inversion has often been used in the simulation environment to rapidly prototype controls for the full flight envelope, because of its capacity for assessing a vehicle s maneuver performance and proper sizing of control surfaces. Generally, the architectures involve either a direct inversion of the entire set of equations of motion or a sequential set of inversions exploiting time scale separation in the vehicle dynamics where faster parameters are considered as controls for slower varying parameters. The proposed architecture builds on the latter using a quaternion formulation that provides singularity free tracking. Of interest, the proposed architecture simplifies the sequential approach by exploiting a simpler kinematic inversion in place of a more difficult inversion typically used. This kinematic relationship accurately describes the angular rate required to drive some reference frame of interest to a desired attitude at some desired quaternion error rate. A simple PID control is used to define the desired quaternion error rate. The paper develops the theoretical framework for the approach, and shows results in tracking a desired trajectory.

Bacon, Barton J↗

McMillan map and nonlinear Twiss parameters

In this article we consider two dynamical systems: the McMillan sextupole and octupole integrable mappings originally introduced by Edwin McMillan; the second one is also known as canonical McMillan map. Both of them are simplest symmetric McMillan maps with only one intrinsic parameter, the trace of the Jacobian at the fixed point. While these dynamical systems have numerous of applications and are used in many areas of math and physics, some of their dynamical properties have not been described yet. We fulfill the gap and provide complete description of all stable trajectories including parametrization of invariant curves, Pioncaré rotation numbers and canonical action-angle variables. In the second part we relate these maps with general chaotic map in McMillan-Turaev form. We show that McMillan sextupole and octupole mappings are first order approximations of dynamics around the fixed point, in a similar way as linear map and quadratic invariant (Courant-Snyder invariant in accelerator physics) is the zeroth order approximation (known as linearization). Finally we suggest the new formalism of nonlinear Twiss parameters which incorporate dependence of rotation number as a function of amplitude, in contrast to e.g. betatron phase advance used in accelerator physics which is independent of amplitude. Specifically in application to accelerator physics this new formalism is capable of predicting dynamical aperture around 1-st, 2-nd, 3-rd and 4-th order resonances for flat beams, which is critical for beam injection/extraction.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Design considerations for attaining 250-knot test velocities at the aircraft landing dynamics facility

Preliminary design studies are presented which consider the important parameters in providing 250 knot test velocities at the Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility. Four major components of this facility are: the hydraulic jet catapult, the test carriage structure, the reaction turning bucket, and the wheels. Using the hydraulic-jet catapult characteristics, a target design point was selected and a carriage structure was sized to meet the required strength requirements. The preliminary design results indicate that to attain 250 knot test velocities for a given hydraulic jet catapult system, a carriage mass of 25,424 kg (56,000 lbm.) cannot be exceeded.

Gray, C. E., Jr.↗

CFD Data on a Vertical Axis Wave Turbine

In this study January to July, 2023, different variations of the original geometry of a vertical-axis wave turbine (VAWT) were generated and evaluated for hydrodynamic power efficiency using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The key geometrical parameters considered in this parametric study included the chord length of the rotor blades and the horizontal semi-axis length. The immersion depth of the rotor was also examined as a key deployment parameter for the wave turbine. The CFD simulation results revealed that a medium chord length of the blade (i.e., the same as that of the baseline design) and a shorter horizontal semi-axis for the guide curve of the blade than that of the baseline design resulted in higher hydrodynamic power to extract. With the most efficient turbine rotor geometry identified in this study, a deployment depth that could assure full submergence of the rotor in waves but as close to the free surface as possible led to a higher hydrodynamic power. These findings revealed a pathway for the improvement of the wave turbine energy efficiency.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Optimal control of first order distributed systems

The problem of characterizing optimal controls for a class of distributed-parameter systems is considered. The system dynamics are characterized mathematically by a finite number of coupled partial differential equations involving first-order time and space derivatives of the state variables, which are constrained at the boundary by a finite number of algebraic relations. Multiple control inputs, extending over the entire spatial region occupied by the system ("distributed controls') are to be designed so that the response of the system is optimal. A major example involving boundary control of an unstable low-density plasma is developed from physical laws.

Johnson, T. L.↗

Estimation of nonlinear pilot model parameters including time delay.

Investigation of the feasibility of using a Kalman filter estimator for the identification of unknown parameters in nonlinear dynamic systems with a time delay. The problem considered is the application of estimation theory to determine the parameters of a family of pilot models containing delayed states. In particular, the pilot-plant dynamics are described by differential-difference equations of the retarded type. The pilot delay, included as one of the unknown parameters to be determined, is kept in pure form as opposed to the Pade approximations generally used for these systems. Problem areas associated with processing real pilot response data are included in the discussion.

Schiess, J. R.↗

Association Kinetics for Perfluorinated n -Alkyl Radicals

Radical-radical reaction channels are important in the pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). In particular, unimolecular dissociation reactions within unbranched n-perfluoroalkyl chains, and their corresponding reverse barrierless association reactions, are expected to be significant contributors to the gas-phase thermal decomposition of families of species such as perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorinated sulfonic acids. Unfortunately, experimental data for these reactions are scarce and uncertain. Furthermore, obtaining reliable theoretical predictions for such reactions is a laborious and computationally intensive task. Here, in this work, the chemical kinetics of the various association/decomposition reactions producing/decomposing the C 2 -C 4 series of unbranched n-perfluoroalkanes (C 2 F 6 , C 3 F 8 , and C 4 F 10 ) are examined using state-of-the-art ab initio transition-state-theory-based master-equation calculations. The variable-reaction-coordinate transition-state theory (VRC-TST) formalism is employed in computing the microcanonical and canonical rates for the association reactions. Reaction thermochemistry is obtained via composite quantum chemistry calculations and the laddering of error-canceling reaction schemes via a connectivity-based hierarchy approach employing ANL1/ANL0-style reference energies. Lennard-Jones collision model parameters for the considered systems were estimated by a direct dynamics approach, and collisional energy transfer parameters were obtained from analogies to systems of similar size and heavy-atom connectivity. A one-dimensional master equation approach was used to convert the microcanonical rate coefficients from the VRC-TST analysis into temperature- and pressure-dependent rate constants for the association reactions and the reverse dissociation reactions. The data are reported in standardized formats for usage in comprehensive chemical kinetic models for PFAS thermal destruction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spallation Neutron Source Hydrogen Relief Analysis for the Cryogenic Moderator System

The Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory operates the Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) which provides hydrogen cooling at 20K to three neutron moderators. Each hydrogen loop is protected by multiple burst discs and reclosing relief valves. As a result of the Proton Power Upgrade project, the CMS moderator loops will hold more hydrogen and thus require piping modifications. Operational experience has demonstrated that transient pressure increases in these hydrogen loops occasionally result in the rupture of the burst discs. The causes for pressure transients in the system that might lead to hydrogen venting are varied and complex, for example loss of vacuum or cooling. Dynamic simulation and analysis of the parameters considered as the worst-case relief venting scenario were performed and will be presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗