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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Pruning of Discrete Dynamic Event Trees Using Density Peaks and Dynamic Time Warping

Discrete Dynamic Event Trees (DDETs) are used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine the risk associated with complex systems, such as nuclear power plants, where accident scenarios need to be realistically modeled. One of the most challenging aspects of the DDET method is that a large number of branches are produced for each initiating event. This can result in data that is difficult to organize and time consuming to analyze. As the number of uncertain parameters increases, so does the complexity of the event tree. An event tree often has nodes that do not contribute to the overall results and predictive capabilities; therefore, we suggest a pre-pruning algorithm that can work to remove these nodes, and consequently, reduce the complexity of the tree. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is currently working on a two year dynamic cyber-risk informed project to assess cyber failure in a nuclear power plant. This will be achieved by coupling SNL's dynamic scheduler known as Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees (ADAPT) with MELCOR, a reactor accident simulator, and a System for Circuit Evaluation and Prediction of Transient Radiation Effects (SCEPTRE), a cyber Emulytics code. This paper will discuss the preliminary results of a feasibility study for using density peaks (DP) clustering with dynamic time warping (DTW) to prune branches that are formed from large DDETs, like the ones that will be produced throughout SNL's project. Papers from the project that are submitted to this conference discuss the following: - The MELCOR model for a Pressurized Water Reactor that uses a digital instrumentation and control system. - Proposed generic cyber exploits for the above reactor. - Modifications to ADAPT to extend the framework for multiple simulators, incorporate importance measures into DDET analysis, as well as sort and reduce DDETs based on inputs to or outputs from the tree. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the input space characterized by epistemic uncertainties. The consequent Dynamic Event Tree performs the exploration of the aleatory space. In the RAVEN code, a more general approach has been developed, not limiting the exploration of the epistemic space through a Monte Carlo method but using all the forward sampling strategies RAVEN currently employs. The user can combine a Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Stratified and Monte Carlo sampling in order to explore the epistemic space, without any limitation. From this pre-sampling, the Dynamic Event Tree sampler starts its aleatory space exploration. As reported by the authors, the Dynamic Event Tree is a good fit to develop a goal-oriented sampling strategy. The DET is used to drive a Limit Surface search. The methodology that has been developed by the authors last year, performs a Limit Surface search in the aleatory space only. This report documents how this approach has been extended in order to consider the epistemic space interacting with the Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Adaptive Dynamic Event Tree in RAVEN code

RAVEN is a software tool that is focused on performing statistical analysis of stochastic dynamic systems. RAVEN has been designed in a high modular and pluggable way in order to enable easy integration of different programming languages (i.e., C++, Python) and coupling with other applications (system codes). Among the several capabilities currently present in RAVEN, there are five different sampling strategies: Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Adaptive and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampling methodologies. The scope of this paper is to present a new sampling approach, currently under definition and implementation: an evolution of the DET me

Dynamic Event Tree↗
DOE OSTI2023

Safety Benefits Assessment for Accident Tolerant Fuels in Consideration of Steam Generator Tube Degradation Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

Accident tolerant fuel (ATF) is expected to delay or prevent core damage by providing additional coping time under accidents involving loss of core cooling. The effect of extended coping time may vary depending on the plant response to accidents. Age-related component degradation that deteriorates plant performance over time could have an impact on the actual advantages of ATF. The potential safety benefits of two near-term ATF candidates, including Cr-coated Zr cladding and FeCrAl cladding, are assessed for a 2-in. loss-of-coolant accident with failed high-pressure safety injection using the dynamic event tree (DET) approach considering possible stress corrosion cracking of steam generator (SG) tubing under aging. The DET approach allows likelihood quantification of accident sequences leading to core damage, including stochastic variation of system response and human actions during accident mitigation. The safety benefits of the selected ATF claddings in terms of additional coping time and the core damage frequency reduction rate under specified accident situations were quantitatively estimated. The results show that the deployment of the two selected ATF claddings is expected to lead to longer coping times and lower core damage frequency due to the wider safety margin to peak cladding temperature they provide. The safety advantages would be greater as SG tube degradation proceeds. Thus, the two ATF candidates would lead to less severe consequences in terms of likelihood of core damage and susceptibility to the SG tube degradation than UO 2 -Zr fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modification of the SAS4A Safety Analysis Code for Integration with the ADAPT Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Framework.

It is difficult to assess the consequences of a transient in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) using traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods, as numerous safety-related sys- tems have passive characteristics. Often there is significant dependence on the value of con- tinuous stochastic parameters rather than binary success/failure determinations. One form of dynamic PRA uses a system simulator to represent the progression of a transient, tracking events through time in a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET). In order to function in a DDET environment, a simulator must have characteristics that make it amenable to changing physical parameters midway through the analysis. The SAS4A SFR system analysis code did not have these characteristics as received. This report describes the code modifications made to allow dynamic operation as well as the linking to a Sandia DDET driver code. A test case is briefly described to demonstrate the utility of the changes.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic event tree analysis with the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis code

The consequences of a transient in an advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor are difficult to capture with the traditional approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Numerous safety-relevant systems are passive and may have operational states that cannot be represented by binary success or failure. In addition, the specific order and timing of events may be crucial which necessitates the use of dynamic PRA tools such as ADAPT. The modifications to the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 sodium-cooled fast reactor safety analysis code for linking it to ADAPT to perform a dynamic PRA are described. A test case is used to demonstrate the linking process and to illustrate the type of insights that may be gained with this process. Finally, newly-developed dynamic importance measures are used to assess the significance of reactor parameters/constituents on calculated consequences of initiating events.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

Instrumentation and control of nuclear power is transforming from analog to modern digital assets. These control systems perform key safety and security functions. This transformation is occurring in new plant designs as well as in the existing fleet of plants as the operation of those plants is extended to 60 years. This transformation introduces new and unknown issues involving both digital asset induced safety issues and security issues. Traditional nuclear power risk assessment tools and cyber security assessment methods have not been modified or developed to address the unique nature of cyber failure modes and of cyber security threat vulnerabilities. iii This Lab-Directed Research and Development project has developed a dynamic cyber-risk in- formed tool to facilitate the analysis of unique cyber failure modes and the time sequencing of cyber faults, both malicious and non-malicious, and impose those cyber exploits and cyber faults onto a nuclear power plant accident sequence simulator code to assess how cyber exploits and cyber faults could interact with a plants digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) system and defeat or circumvent a plants cyber security controls. This was achieved by coupling an existing Sandia National Laboratories nuclear accident dynamic simulator code with a cyber emulytics code to demonstrate real-time simulation of cyber exploits and their impact on automatic DI&C responses. Studying such potential time-sequenced cyber-attacks and their risks (i.e., the associated impact and the associated degree of difficulty to achieve the attack vector) on accident management establishes a technical risk informed framework for developing effective cyber security controls for nuclear power.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗