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Computing Sensitivities in Evolutionary Systems: A Real-time Reduced Order Modeling Strategy

We present a new methodology for computing sensitivities in evolutionary systems using a model-driven low-rank approximation. To this end, we formulate a variational principle that seeks to minimize the distance between the time derivative of the reduced approximation and sensitivity dynamics. The first order optimality condition of the variational principle leads to a system of closed form evolution equations for an orthonormal basis and corresponding sensitivity coefficients. This approach allows for the computation of sensitivities with respect to a large number of parameters in an accurate and tractable manner by extracting correlations between different sensitivities on the fly. The presented method requires solving forward evolution equations, sidestepping the restrictions imposed by the forward/backward workflow of adjoint sensitivities. For example, the presented method, unlike the adjoint equation, does not impose any input/output load and can be used in applications in which real-time sensitivities are of interest. We demonstrate the utility of the method for three test cases: (1) computing sensitivity with respect to model parameters in the Rössler system, (2) computing sensitivity with respect to an infinite-dimensional forcing parameter in the chaotic Kuramoto--Sivashinsky equation, and (3) computing sensitivity with respect to reaction parameters for species transport in a turbulent reacting flow.

Reduced order model

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Cohn, Stephen E.

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Tippett, Michael K.

Semi-analytic preliminary design of low-thrust missions

Using generalized logarithmic spirals to approximate low-thrust trajectories, a new strategy for the design of low-thrust gravity-assist transfers has been developed. Each transfer leg is defined by a semi-analytic model, and its solution is equivalent to a hybrid Lambert’s problem. The method is suitable for approximating both flyby and rendezvous transfer legs. A branch and prune algorithm is used to generate a collection of initial guesses for further optimization. The analytic nature of the low-thrust model simplifies the pruning step, since dynamical and operational constraints (like maximum thrust or total v) can be imposed easily. The solutions obtained with the global search algorithm can be post-processed, filtered, and ranked according to various criteria. This is where the versatility of the method resides, because changing the selection criteria does not require a new search. Selected candidates are then optimized further, in order to generate actual low-thrust orbits. Two mission design examples are presented: an asteroid deflection mission using a kinetic impactor, and a rendezvous mission to Jupiter. These examples are used to analyze the convergence of the optimization stage, in particular how far from the optimal solution the initial guesses are.

Park, Ryan S.

Adjoints and Low-rank Covariance Representation

Quantitative measures of the uncertainty of Earth System estimates can be as important as the estimates themselves. Second moments of estimation errors are described by the covariance matrix, whose direct calculation is impractical when the number of degrees of freedom of the system state is large. Ensemble and reduced-state approaches to prediction and data assimilation replace full estimation error covariance matrices by low-rank approximations. The appropriateness of such approximations depends on the spectrum of the full error covariance matrix, whose calculation is also often impractical. Here we examine the situation where the error covariance is a linear transformation of a forcing error covariance. We use operator norms and adjoints to relate the appropriateness of low-rank representations to the conditioning of this transformation. The analysis is used to investigate low-rank representations of the steady-state response to random forcing of an idealized discrete-time dynamical system.

Tippett, Michael K.

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

Online anomaly detection

Gust alleviation - Criteria and control laws

The relationships between criteria specified for aircraft gust alleviation and the form of the control laws that result from the criteria are considered. Open-loop gust alleviation based on the linearized, small perturbation equations of aircraft motion is discussed, and an approximate solution of the open-loop control law is presented for the case in which the number of degrees of freedom of the aircraft exceeds the rank of the control effectiveness matrix. Excessive actuator lag is compensated for by taking into account actuator dynamics in the equations of motion, resulting in the specification of a general load network. Criteria for gust alleviation when output motions are gust alleviated and the closed-loop control law derived from them are examined and linear optimal control law is derived. Comparisons of the control laws reveal that the effectiveness of an open-loop control law is greatest at low aircraft frequencies but deteriorates as the natural frequency of the actuators is approached, while closed-loop methods are found to be more effective at higher frequencies.

Rynaski, E. G.

On the Possibility of Ill-Conditioned Covariance Matrices in the First-Order Two-Step Estimator

The first-order two-step nonlinear estimator, when applied to a problem of orbital navigation, is found to occasionally produce first step covariance matrices with very low eigenvalues at certain trajectory points. This anomaly is the result of the linear approximation to the first step covariance propagation. The study of this anomaly begins with expressing the propagation of the first and second step covariance matrices in terms of a single matrix. This matrix is shown to have a rank equal to the difference between the number of first step states and the number of second step states. Furthermore, under some simplifying assumptions, it is found that the basis of the column space of this matrix remains fixed once the filter has removed the large initial state error. A test matrix containing the basis of this column space and the partial derivative matrix relating first and second step states is derived. This square test matrix, which has dimensions equal to the number of first step states, numerically drops rank at the same locations that the first step covariance does. It is formulated in terms of a set of constant vectors (the basis) and a matrix which can be computed from a reference trajectory (the partial derivative matrix). A simple example problem involving dynamics which are described by two states and a range measurement illustrate the cause of this anomaly and the application of the aforementioned numerical test in more detail.

Garrison, James L.