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At least 19 records

MSD CoP Webinar: "Generative agents: A new frontier for representing human actors and their behavior in MSD models"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Talk #1: Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations Presenter: Dr. Cong Chen (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College) Abstract: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties, behavioral complexities, and limited empirical data. This talk introduces a novel approach leveraging generative agents--artificial agents powered by large language models--to realistically simulate customer decision-making in dynamic energy operations. Talk #2: Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models Presenter: Dr. Yongchao Zeng (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany) Abstract: Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives. This talk describes a novel simulation system called HoPeS (Human-oriented Perspective Shifting). HoPeS enables model users to not only explore simulated socio-ecological systems (SESs) from a third-person observer's perspective but also take any of the simulated stakeholder roles, like playing an RPG game. By shifting multiple perspectives, model users can reflect and integrate the situated knowledge learned through the participatory simulation, approximating a more holistic and less biased understanding of SESs. Moderators: Jim Yoon (MSD CoP Human Systems Modeling Working Group Co-Chair); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP Using AI to Enhance MSD Research Working Group Co-Chair); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: November 13th, 2025 from 12-1 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Risk Assessment Information System Compendium of Ecological Screening Benchmarks for Chemicals and Radionuclides (2025) (Volume I – Text, Radionuclides for all Media, Chemicals for Air and Biota)

The Risk Assessment Information System Ecological Benchmark Tool compiles screening level benchmark values for assessing potential ecological risks posed by chemical and radionuclide contaminants. Drawing from a wide array of federal, state, and international sources, it consolidates benchmarks across environmental media, including soil, water, sediment, air, and biota, and presents values for a broad range of receptors and exposure pathways. The tool includes both effect-based and no-effect thresholds, with media- and organism-specific guidance derived from peer-reviewed literature and regulatory frameworks. By integrating diverse benchmark types into a unified reference, the tool supports consistent, scientifically grounded evaluations in ecological risk assessments and environmental management practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Contrasting effects of land-use and local disturbance on plant and pollinator communities in wetlands

While pollinators and wetlands both provide important ecosystem services (e.g., the pollination of flowering plants and improving water quality), the relationship between the two is not well understood. Both biotic and abiotic effects can mediate the local wetland flower and pollinator community. In this study, we investigated how land use, including a land use gradient at five different radii, from 250 m to 2 km, along with anthropogenic disturbance affected pollinators in wetland ecosystems. We surveyed the abundance and diversity of plant-pollinator communities in fifteen different wetlands across two years. We also tested the relationship between water quality and temperature, and the abundance and diversity of flowering plants and pollinating insects. Our results suggest that increasing temperature, which was strongly associated with developed land use, had a negative effect on the floral display of wetland plants, as well as the abundance of all flower visitors and hover flies. Hover fly abundance was also positively associated with agricultural land use and total nitrogen in the water. Meanwhile, the abundance of female bees was affected by an interaction between temperature and disturbance: female bees were most abundant when temperatures were lower in areas of low disturbance. In contrast, pollinator species richness increased with temperature when developed land use was low, and floral diversity was strongly affected by several interactions between disturbance, land use, and water quality. Finally, the community composition of both plants and insects varied significantly among low, medium, and high disturbance categories, with weedier, non-native species being significantly associated with areas of higher disturbance and in sites with greater anthropogenic land use. We demonstrate that ecological communities shift significantly in response to anthropogenic change. Our work also illustrates the importance of quantifying interactions between land use and local disturbance with abiotic factors such as temperature and water quality on ecological systems.

Disturbance

Single-Phase Spinel NiCo 2 O 4 as Highly Active and Stable Electrocatalysts for Urea Oxidation Reaction in Urea Electrolysis

Exploring and designing a stable and active catalyst for the urea electro-oxidation reaction (UOR, CO(NH 2 ) 2 + 6OH – → CO 2 + N 2 + 5H 2 O + 6e – ) is crucial for the long-term sustainability of ecological systems and clean energy production. We found that spinel NiCo 2 O 4 is a stable and active electrocatalyst for UOR at a relatively low anodic potential without triggering the competing oxygen evolution reaction (OER). A urea electrolysis cell (CO(NH 2 )2 + H 2 O → CO 2 + N 2 + 2H 2 ) utilizing a spinel NiCo 2 O 4 anode and a commercial Pt cathode was further characterized through galvanostatic polarization tests, demonstrating excellent structural stability at various current densities. Post-mortem analysis of long-term urea electrolysis measurements suggested that NiCo 2 O 4 electrocatalysts maintained a stable spinel structure. However, redistribution of Ni 3+ to Ni 2+ valence on the catalyst surface was observed, in contrast to the intact Co valence, indicating that (i) Ni sites are active toward urea adsorption and sequential electro-oxidation; (ii) while urea oxidation proceeds primarily through the direct electro-oxidation mechanism, chemical reactions between the Ni 3+ site and urea occur during long-term electrochemical UOR operation. Density functional theory (DFT) simulations were used to calculate the adsorption energies of urea molecules on NiO, Co 3 O 4 , and NiCo 2 O 4 , revealing the importance of regulating the configuration of adsorbed urea molecules on the NiCo 2 O 4 surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Phylogenomic insights into the taxonomy, ecology, and mating systems of the lorchel family Discinaceae (Pezizales, Ascomycota)

Lorchels, also known as false morels (Gyromitra sensu lato), are iconic due to their brain-shaped mushrooms and production of gyromitrin, a deadly mycotoxin. Molecular phylogenetic studies have hitherto failed to resolve deep-branching relationships in the lorchel family, Discinaceae, hampering our ability to settle longstanding taxonomic debates and to reconstruct the evolution of toxin production. We generated 75 draft genomes from cultures and ascomata (some collected as early as 1960), conducted phylogenomic analyses using 1542 single-copy orthologs to infer the early evolutionary history of lorchels, and identified genomic signatures of trophic mode and mating-type loci to better understand lorchel ecology and reproductive biology. Our phylogenomic tree was supported by high gene tree concordance, facilitating taxonomic revisions in Discinaceae. We recognized 10 genera across two tribes: tribe Discineae (Discina, Maublancomyces, Neogyromitra, Piscidiscina, and Pseudodiscina) and tribe Gyromitreae (Gyromitra, Hydnotrya, Paragyromitra, Pseudorhizina, and Pseudoverpa); Piscidiscina was newly erected and 26 new combinations were formalized. Paradiscina melaleuca and Marcelleina donadinii formed their own family-level clade sister to Morchellaceae, which merits further taxonomic study. Genome size and CAZyme content were consistent with a mycorrhizal lifestyle for the truffle species (Hydnotrya spp.), whereas the other Discinaceae genera possessed genomic properties of a saprotrophic habit. Lorchels were found to be predominantly heterothallic-either MAT1-1 or MAT1-2-but a single occurrence of colocalized mating-type idiomorphs indicative of homothallism was observed in Gyromitra esculenta strain CBS101906 and requires additional confirmation and follow-up study. Lastly, we confirmed that gyromitrin has a phylogenetically discontinuous distribution, having been detected exclusively in two distantly related genera (Gyromitra and Piscidiscina) belonging to separate tribes. Our genomic dataset will facilitate further investigations into the gyromitrin biosynthesis genes and their evolutionary history. With additional sampling of Geomoriaceae and Helvellaceae-two closely related families with no publicly available genomes-these data will enable comprehensive studies on the independent evolution of truffles and ecological diversification in an economically important group of pezizalean fungi.

Dirks, Alden C

The Risk Assessment Information System Compendium of Ecological Screening Benchmarks for Chemicals and Radionuclides (2025) (Volume VIII – Chemicals for Sediment: General)

Volume VIII presents the chemical benchmarks for sediment: general. The benchmarks here are applicable to both freshwater sediments and marine sediments or where no differentiation was made by the source. These values are not repeated in the freshwater sediment and marine sediment categories. Likewise, values listed in the freshwater sediment and marine sediment categories are not repeated in the generic categories. Consult Volume I for information on the sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Risk Assessment Information System Compendium of Ecological Screening Benchmarks for Chemicals and Radionuclides (2025) (Volume V – Chemicals for Surface Water: General)

Volume V presents the chemical benchmarks for surface water: general. The benchmarks here are applicable to both fresh water and marine or where no differentiation was made by the source. These values are not repeated in the fresh water and marine categories. Likewise, values listed in the fresh water and marine categories are not repeated in the generic categories. Consult Volume I for information on the sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro

Divergent trait controls on soluble sugars and starch underlie global strategies of tree carbohydrate storage

Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) stores buffer tree metabolism, osmotic regulation, and defense, thereby mediating tolerance and survival under climate extremes. Yet, the functional and evolutionary determinants of interspecific variation in NSC remain elusive, limiting understanding and prediction of forest carbon allocation and mortality under global change. Here, we present a cross-species synthesis of NSC concentrations across multiple organs for 281 woody species from 102 mixed forest communities worldwide, where we quantified species-specific deviations from community means to disentangle intrinsic trait effects from environmental and methodological variation. We found phylogenetic signals in NSC deviations, with coniferous gymnosperms and evergreen species consistently maintaining lower stem soluble sugars and starch concentrations than co-occurring angiosperms and deciduous species, respectively. A global pattern emerged where greater stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential was associated with declines in the relative concentrations of both sugars and starch. In contrast, xylem hydraulic safety traits showed weak and organ-dependent relationships with NSC concentrations. Sugars increased with photosynthetic capacity and declined with wood density, whereas starch showed the reverse pattern, which aligned with the distinct functional-metabolic roles of sugars and starch. By integrating trait-based ecology with a community-centered framework, our study provides global evidence that stomatal regulation, photosynthetic capacity, specific leaf area, and wood density jointly govern interspecific NSC variation, through contrasting effects on sugars and starch. These are among the most broadly measured traits globally, thus the emergent carbohydrate–trait relationships can have broad applications toward understanding and predicting forest growth and survival under climate change.

tropic system

A chromosome-level genome assembly of the varied leaved jewelflower, Streptanthus diversifolius, reveals a recent whole genome duplication

Abstract The Streptanthoid complex, a clade of primarily Streptanthus and Caulanthus species in the Thelypodieae (Brassicaceae) is an emerging model system for ecological and evolutionary studies. This complex spans the full range of the California Floristic Province including desert, foothill, and mountain environments. The ability of these related species to radiate into dramatically different environments makes them a desirable study subject for exploring how plant species expand their ranges and adapt to new environments over time. Ecological and evolutionary studies for this complex have revealed fascinating variation in serpentine soil adaptation, defense compounds, germination, flowering, and life history strategies. Until now a lack of publicly available genome assemblies has hindered the ability to relate these phenotypic observations to their underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms. To help remedy this situation, we present here a chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation of Streptanthus diversifolius, a member of the Streptanthoid Complex, developed using Illumina, Hi-C, and HiFi sequencing technologies. Construction of this assembly also provides further evidence to support the previously reported recent whole genome duplication unique to the Thelypodieae. This whole genome duplication may have provided individuals in the Streptanthoid Complex the genetic arsenal to rapidly radiate throughout the California Floristic Province and to occupy commonly inhospitable environments including serpentine soils.

Genetics & Heredity

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY