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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

Wood, B. L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Picault, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilient El Rito, Microgrif System Laboratory (Village of El Rito) (Final CTAP Report)

Sandia provided technical assistance to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC) to assess the technical merits of a proposed community resilience microgrid project in the Village of El Rito, New Mexico (NM). The project includes a proposed community resilience microgrid in the Village of El Rito, NM, around the campus of Northern New Mexico College (NNMC). A conceptual microgrid analysis plan was performed, considering a campus and community-wide approach. The analysis results provided conceptual microgrid configurations, optimized according to the performance metrics defined. The campus microgrid was studied independently and many conceptual microgrid solutions were provided that met the performance requirements. Considering the existing 1.5 MW PV system on campus far exceeds the simulated campus load peak and energy demand, a small battery installation was deemed sufficient to support the campus microgrid goals. Following the analysis and consultation, it was determined that the core Resilient El Rito team will need to further investigate the results for additional economic and environmental considerations to continue toward the best approach for their goals and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dust pollution in China affected by different spatial and temporal types of El Niño

Dust is an important aerosol affecting air quality in China in the winter and spring seasons. Dust in China is potentially influenced by the interannual climate variability associated with El Niño. Here, the impacts of El Niño with different temporal and spatial types on dust pollution in boreal winter and spring in China and the potential mechanisms are investigated using a state-of-the-art Earth system model (E3SMv1). We find that the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño both increase wintertime dust concentrations by 5–50 µg m –3 over central-eastern China. Due to a stronger wind and lower relative humidity, which favor dust emissions near sources, and a strengthened northwesterly and reduced precipitation, which are conducive to dust transport, dust concentrations during the CP El Niño are 5–20 µg m –3 higher in northern China than during the EP El Niño, although the changes are mostly insignificant. El Niño with a short duration (SD) increases boreal winter dust concentrations by 20–100 µg m –3 over northern China relative to the climatological mean, while there is a decrease of 5–50 µg m –3 during the long-duration (LD) El Niño, which is also related to the El Niño-induced changes in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and relative humidity. In the following spring season, all types of El Niño events enhance dust over northern China, but only the increase during the LD El Niño is statistically significant, suggesting that the weaker intensity but longer duration of the LD El Niño events can significantly affect spring dust in China. Our results contribute to the current knowledge of the influence of El Niño on dust pollution, which has profound implications for air pollution control and dust storm prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1998

Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events (1950-1997) and the El Nino-Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship

On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of 1950-1997, fewer intense hurricanes occurred during El Nino-related seasons (always less than or equal to 3 and usually less than or equal to 2, this latter value having been true for 18 of the 20 El Nino-related seasons), while more usually occurred during non-El Nino-related seasons (typically greater than or equal to 2, having been true for 22 of the 28 non-El Nino-related seasons). Implications for the 1998 and 1999 hurricane seasons are discussed.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2011

Does Terrestrial Drought Explain Global CO2 Flux Anomalies Induced by El Nino?

The El Nino Southern Oscillation is the dominant year-to-year mode of global climate variability. El Nino effects on terrestrial carbon cycling are mediated by associated climate anomalies, primarily drought, influencing fire emissions and biotic net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here we evaluate whether El Nino produces a consistent response from the global carbon cycle. We apply a novel bottom-up approach to estimating global NEE anomalies based on FLUXNET data using land cover maps and weather reanalysis. We analyze 13 years (1997-2009) of globally gridded observational NEE anomalies derived from eddy covariance flux data, remotely-sensed fire emissions at the monthly time step, and NEE estimated from an atmospheric transport inversion. We evaluate the overall consistency of biospheric response to El Nino and, more generally, the link between global CO2 flux anomalies and El Nino-induced drought. Our findings, which are robust relative to uncertainty in both methods and time-lags in response, indicate that each event has a different spatial signature with only limited spatial coherence in Amazonia, Australia and southern Africa. For most regions, the sign of response changed across El Nino events. Biotic NEE anomalies, across 5 El Nino events, ranged from -1.34 to +0.98 Pg Cyr(exp -1, whereas fire emissions anomalies were generally smaller in magnitude (ranging from -0.49 to +0.53 Pg C yr(exp -1). Overall drought does not appear to impose consistent terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies during El Ninos, finding large variation in globally integrated responses from 11.15 to +0.49 Pg Cyr(exp -1). Despite the significant correlation between the CO2 flux and El Nino indices, we find that El Nino events have, when globally integrated, both enhanced and weakened terrestrial sink strength, with no consistent response across events

Schwalm. C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A View from Space: Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina

After the last extreme El Nino in 1982-1983, an extensive in situ observing system was deployed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Nino. Within the past ten years a series of ocean and atmosphere remote sensing satellites have been launched that serve to supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The 1997-1998 "El Nino Event of the Century" has been the best monitored El Nino on record. The 1997-1998 El Nino will be the first time a major El Nino event and subsequent La Nina will have been observed from start to finish from a combination of remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. Among some of the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for global observations in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this presentation the evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino will be depicted from the unique vantage point provided by these space-based observations as analyzed separately, and together as a representation of the coupled system. Comparisons and contrasts with the evolution 1982-1983 El Nino and how the in situ and space-based observations complement each other will be discussed.

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A View from Space: Evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino and La Nina

After the last extreme El Nino in 1982-1983, an extensive in situ observing system was deployed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Nino. Within the past ten years a series of ocean and atmosphere remote sensing satellites have been launched that serve to supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The 1997-1998 "El Nino Event of the Century" has been the best monitored El Nino on record. The 1997-1998 El Nino will be the first time a major El Nino event and subsequent La Nina will have been observed from start to finish from a combination of remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. Among some of the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for global observations in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this presentation the evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino will be depicted from the unique vantage point provided by these space-based observations as analyzed separately, and together as a representation of the coupled system. Comparisons and contrasts with the evolution 1982-1983 El Nino and how the in situ and space-based observations complement each other will be discussed.

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A View From Space: Evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino and La Nina

After the last extreme El Nino in 1982-1983, an extensive in situ observing system was deployed in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Nino. Within the past ten years a series of ocean and atmosphere remote sensing satellites have been launched that serve to supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The 1997-1998 "El Nino Event of the Century" has been the best monitored El Nino on record. The 1997-1998 El Nino will be the first time a major El Nino event and subsequent La Nina will have been observed from start to finish from a combination of remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface wind, ocean color, and precipitation, Among some of the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for global observation in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this presentation the evolution of the 1997-1998 El Nino will be depicted from the unique vantage point provided by these space-based observations as analyzed separately, and together as a representation of the coupled system. Comparisons and contrasts with the evolution 1982-1983 El Nino and how the in situ and space-based observations complement each other will be discussed.

Busalacchi, Antonio↗
NASA NTRS2023

Tropical Three-dimensional Cloud Climatology during El Niño Events with CALIPSO Level-3 Cloud Products

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean but affects global climate patterns. Its warm phase El Niño occurs irregularly every two to seven years and peaks in winter. A previous case study showed opposite cloud anomalies at high, middle and low altitude regions during a weak 2006/2007 El Niño and a moderate 2009/2010 El Niño, suggesting a non-linear response of tropical clouds to El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. To further understand the cloud response to SST, we examine the three-dimensional (3-D) cloud anomalies during all recent five El Niño events since 2006 using level-3 (L3) cloud products from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) mission. During its 17+ years operation, CALIPSO delivered near-global measurements of cloud and aerosol profiles at unprecedented high resolution and sensitivity. In this work, we provide a comprehensive picture of cloud anomalies during El Niño, with a particular focus on thin cirrus clouds at high altitudes, which are challenging for passive sensor detection algorithms. Specifically, the vertical cloud anomalies are calculated with the L3 3-D Cloud Occurrence Product, the horizontal cloud anomalies are from the L3 Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) product, and the ice cloud extinction profiles and ice water content are obtained from the L3 Ice Cloud product. These findings will improve current knowledge of ENSO from a new perspective.

El Nino↗