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Use of Statistical Analysis of Acoustic Emission Data on Carbon-Epoxy COPV Materials-of-Construction for Enhanced Felicity Ratio Onset Determination
Broadband modal acoustic emission (AE) data were acquired during intermittent load hold tensile test profiles on Toray T1000G carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy (C/Ep) single tow specimens. A novel trend seeking statistical method to determine the onset of significant AE was developed, resulting in more linear decreases in the Felicity ratio (FR) with load, potentially leading to more accurate failure prediction. The method developed uses an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Comparison of the EWMA with previously used FR onset methods, namely the discrete (n), mean (n (raised bar)), normalized (n%) and normalized mean (n(raised bar)%) methods, revealed the EWMA method yields more consistently linear FR versus load relationships between specimens. Other findings include a correlation between AE data richness and FR linearity based on the FR methods discussed in this paper, and evidence of premature failure at lower than expected loads. Application of the EWMA method should be extended to other composite materials and, eventually, composite components such as composite overwrapped pressure vessels. Furthermore, future experiments should attempt to uncover the factors responsible for infant mortality in C/Ep strands.
Selecting a Classification Ensemble and Detecting Process Drift in an Evolving Data Stream
We characterize the commercial behavior of a group of companies in a common line of business using a small ensemble of classifiers on a stream of records containing commercial activity information. This approach is able to effectively find a subset of classifiers that can be used to predict company labels with reasonable accuracy. Performance of the ensemble, its error rate under stable conditions, can be characterized using an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. The behavior of the EWMA statistic can be used to monitor a record stream from the commercial network and determine when significant changes have occurred. Results indicate that larger classification ensembles may not necessarily be optimal, pointing to the need to search the combinatorial classifier space in a systematic way. Results also show that current and past performance of an ensemble can be used to detect when statistically significant changes in the activity of the network have occurred. The dataset used in this work contains tens of thousands of high level commercial activity records with continuous and categorical variables and hundreds of labels, making classification challenging.
Enhanced data validation strategy of air quality monitoring network
Quick validation and detection of faults in measured air quality data is a crucial step towards achieving the objectives of air quality networks. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are threefold: (i) to develop a modeling technique that can be used to predict the normal behavior of air quality variables and help provide accurate reference for monitoring purposes; (ii) to develop fault detection method that can effectively and quickly detect any anomalies in measured air quality data. For this purpose, a new fault detection method that is based on the combination of generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) will be developed. GLRT is a well-known statistical fault detection method that relies on maximizing the detection probability for a given false alarm rate. In this paper, we propose to develop GLRT-based EWMA fault detection method that will be able to detect the changes in the values of certain air quality variables; (iii) to develop fault isolation and identification method that allows defining the fault source(s) in order to properly apply appropriate corrective actions. In this paper, reconstruction approach that is based on Midpoint-Radii Principal Component Analysis (MRPCA) model will be developed to handle the types of data and models associated with air quality monitoring networks. All air quality modeling, fault detection, fault isolation and reconstruction methods developed in this paper will be validated using real air quality data (such as particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen and carbon oxides measurement).
Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)
The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.
Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I—Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587)
This article is the second paper from the ASHRAE research project RP-1587, focusing on the methodology of obtaining a control quality factor (CQF). This article presents a development of two CQFs for assessing the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) control loop performance. Both CQFs are able to detect whether the control loop is able to maintain the setpoint and identify the loop's ability to handle disturbances. In addition, the reversal behaviors are assessed as well. The first CQF (CQF-Harris) is proposed based on the normalized Harris index using the recursive least squares method. This recursive least squares method is selected because of its computational efficiency compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The second CQF (CQF-EWMA) is based on the exponentially weighted moving average of the error ratio. The assessment scale of excellent, good, fair, bad, and failed, which indicates the quality of the HVAC control loops, is established as well. The sensitivity analysis for both CQFs is also conducted, and it provides insights on choosing the appropriate parameters to compute such CQFs. Such parameters include the sampling frequency, the length of the moving window, and the variance of the unmeasured disturbance. The field evaluations and tests of the proposed CQFs for simulated control loops and real control loops can be found in the companion paper with the title 'Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment - III: Field Testing and Results (ASHRAE RP-1587).'
Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment—II: Field testing and results (ASHRAE RP-1587)
This article is the third paper from the research project RP-1587, focusing on presenting a comprehensive field test of the proposed control quality factors (CQFs; i.e., CQF-Harris and CQF-exponentially weighted moving average [EWMA]) and testing results. Firstly, the simulated control loops and real control loops are evaluated for offline assessment. Then, the field experiment implemented for different HVAC control loops is assessed online using the proposed CQFs. Test results show that the proposed CQFs are capable of adequately and effectively assessing the HVAC control loop performance. The methodology of obtaining those CQFs is provided in the companion paper: Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment I - Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587) (Li et al. 2019 Li, Y., Z. D. O'Neill, and X. Zhou. 2019. Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I - Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587).
An Ensemble Approach to Computationally Efficient Radiological Anomaly Detection and Isotope Identification
Radiological source search is a challenging task involving detection and identification of weak sources in a constantly changing radiological background. As of now, many radiological source detection algorithms have been proposed; however, their computational complexity, and hence reliance on power intensive processing units inhibit low-power applications of radiological source search systems. In this work, we introduce the anomaly filter (AF) algorithm; a computationally light, yet effective time-series source detection algorithm based on exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) and Poisson deviance statistics. Then, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be used in ensemble with other more computationally intensive source detection and identification algorithms to achieve both increased detection performance and reduced power consumption. The proposed AF algorithm and the ensemble algorithms were thoroughly benchmarked against several existing source detection and identification algorithms. The results show that the AF algorithm outperforms existing conventional source detection algorithms, and the ensemble approach improves the overall performance of existing source detection and isotope identification algorithms. Furthermore, the AF algorithm and the Non-negative Matrix Factorization approach based source identification (NMF-ID) algorithm were combined and implemented on a singleboard microcontroller and the power consumption was measured. This ensemble algorithm reduced the power consumption of the NMF-ID algorithm almost by a factor of 100, while improving the detection performance of the overall system.
Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series
Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.