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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Validation of Multiple Related Data Sets—Case Study Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer Satellite Data

Abstract Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data

The Earth Cloud, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched in May 2024 carries a novel 94 GHz cloud profiling radar (CPR) with Doppler capability. This work describes the open-source instrument simulator Orbital-Radar, which transforms high-resolution radar data from field observations or forward simulations of numerical models to CPR primary measurements and uncertainties. The transformation accounts for sampling geometry and surface effects. We demonstrate Orbital-Radar's ability to provide realistic CPR views of typical cloud and precipitation scenes. The presented case studies show small-scale convection, marine stratus clouds, and Arctic mixed-phase cloud cases. These results provide valuable insights into the capabilities and challenges of the EarthCARE CPR mission and its advantages over the CloudSat CPR. Finally, Orbital-Radar allows for evaluating kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction models with EarthCARE CPR observations. So, Orbital-Radar can generate calibration and validation (Cal/Val) data sets already pre-launch. Nevertheless, an evaluation of synthetic CPR output data to accurate EarthCARE CPR data is missing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Networks: A New Platform for Aerospace

The ability to distribute entanglement between quantum nodes may unlock new capabilities in the future that include teleporting information across multinode networks, higher resolution detection via entangled sensor arrays, and measurements beyond the quantum limit enabled by networked atomic clocks. These new quantum networks also hold promise for the Aerospace community in areas such as deep space exploration, improved satellite communication, and synchronizing drone swarms. Although exciting, these applications are a long way off from providing a “real-world” benefit, as they have only been theoretically explored or demonstrated in small-scale experiments. An outstanding challenge is to identify near-term use cases for quantum networks; this may be an intriguing new area of interest for the aerospace community, as the quantum networking field would benefit from more multidisciplinary collaborations. This paper introduces quantum networking, discusses the difficulties in distributing entanglement within these networks, highlights recent progress toward this endeavor, and features two current case studies on mobile quantum nodes and an entangled clock network, both of which are relevant to the aerospace community.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Periodic Gamma-Ray Modulation of the Blazar PG 1553+113 Confirmed by Fermi-LAT and Multiwavelength Observations

A 2.1 yr periodic oscillation of the gamma-ray flux from the blazar PG 1553+113 has previously been tentatively identified in ∼7 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. After 15 yr of Fermi sky-survey observations, doubling the total time range, we report >7 cycle gamma-ray modulation with an estimated significance of 4σ against stochastic red noise. Independent determinations of oscillation period and phase in the earlier and the new data are in close agreement (chance probability <0.01). Pulse timing over the full light curve is also consistent with a coherent periodicity. Multiwavelength new data from Swift X-Ray Telescope, Burst Alert Telescope, and UVOT, and from KAIT, Catalina Sky Survey, All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, and Owens Valley Radio Observatory ground-based observatories as well as archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer satellite-All Sky Monitor data, published optical data of Tuorla, and optical historical Harvard plates data are included in our work. Optical and radio light curves show clear correlations with the gamma-ray modulation, possibly with a nonconstant time lag for the radio flux. We interpret the gamma-ray periodicity as possibly arising from a pulsational accretion flow in a sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole system of elevated mass ratio, with orbital modulation of the supplied material and energy in the jet. Other astrophysical scenarios introduced include instabilities, disk and jet precession, rotation or nutation, and perturbations by massive stars or intermediate-mass black holes in polar orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CubeSat Interplanetary Exploration: A Deep Dive into Nuclear Propulsion and Astrodynamics for Small Satellites

CubeSats are small satellites most commonly used by universities, however, nowadays places like NASA are looking to CubeSats for interplanetary missions. Because of their universal form fit it makes them cost effective, economical, and therefor desirable for deep space. To achieve deep space exploration, we must explore the applications of propulsion and astrodynamics on small satellites. This paper will touch on one scaling Ion and chemical propulsion as well as nuclear kilo reactors. Two choreographing a flight path for these small satellites and lastly designing an efficient cost-effective platform for CubeSats to get to deep space territory.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tree-level carbon stock estimations across diverse species using multi-source remote sensing integration

Forests are critical carbon sinks, and remote sensing has been increasingly widely used for forest monitoring and biomass estimations. However, species-specific tree-level studies remain limited. In this study, we demonstrated the feasibility of integrating UAV-based LiDAR with high-resolution optical satellite imagery (0.5 m) to estimate biomass for individual trees across different species. The proposed method accurately estimated biomass for 53 trees (R² = 0.82, rRMSE = 0.44), with species-specific datasets, showing an average 25.2% increase in R² and a 14.8% reduction in rRMSE. A novel vegetation index combining forest structure parameters with vegetation indices (VIs) was developed using high-resolution multispectral satellite data (3 m) to explore its relationship with individual tree biomass. Combining forest structural parameters with VIs further improved estimation accuracy, achieving an R²of 0.89 and an rRMSE of 0.34. Species-specific datasets show an 11.6% increase in R²compared to methods without VIs, and a 22.2% improvement over methods using only VIs. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis shows that the volume feature played a key role in model performance and remained stable throughout the training process. Altogether, the proposed approach enhances individual tree biomass and carbon sink estimations, showing great potential for large-scale precise forest carbon monitoring using multi-source remote sensing data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Causal Relationships and Adjustment Timescales of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Geostationary Satellite Observations and CAM6 Using Wavelet Phase Coherence Analysis

We present for the first time within the cloud physics context, the application of wavelet phase coherence analysis to disentangle counteracting physical processes associated with the lead-lag phase difference between cloud-proxy liquid water path (LWP) and aerosol-proxy cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) in an Eulerian framework using satellite-based observations and climate model outputs. This approach allows us to identify the causality and dominant adjustment timescales governing the correlation between LWP and N d . Satellite observations indicate a more prevalent positive correlation between daytime LWP and N d regardless of whether LWP leads or lags N d . The positive cloud water response, associated with precipitation processes, typically occurs within 1 hr, while the negative response resulting from entrainment drying, usually takes 2–4 hr. CAM6 displays excessively rapid negative responses along with overly strong negative cloud water response and insufficient positive response, leading to a more negative correlation between LWP and N d compared to observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dwarf Galaxies at Cosmic Noon: New JWST Constraints on Satellite Models and Subhalo Tidal Evolution

The advent of JWST has revolutionized the study of faint satellite galaxies at z ≳ 1, enabling statistical constraints on galaxy evolution and the galaxy–halo connection in a previously unexplored mass and redshift regime. We compare satellite abundances at 1 < z < 3.5 from recent JWST observations with predictions from cosmological dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations. We identify and quantify several sources of biases that can impact theoretical satellite counts, finding that assumptions about subhalo tidal evolution introduce the largest uncertainty in predictions for the satellite mass function. Using a flexible galaxy disruption model, we explore a range of disruption scenarios, spanning hydrodynamically motivated and idealized prescriptions, to bracket plausible physical outcomes. We show that varying galaxy durability can change the predicted satellite mass functions by a factor of ∼3.5. The JWST data and our fiducial model are consistent within 1σ–2σ across the full redshift (1 < z < 3.5) and stellar mass (M⋆ > 10 7 M ⊙ ) range probed. We find evidence that subhalos are at least as long-lived as predicted by hydrodynamic simulations. Our framework will enable robust constraints on the tidal evolution of subhalos with future observations. This work presents the first direct comparison between cosmological models and observations of the high-redshift satellite population in this low-mass regime. These results showcase JWST’s emerging power to test structure formation in the first half of the Universe in a new domain and to constrain the physical processes driving the evolution of low-mass galaxies across cosmic time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

DELVE-DEEP Survey: The Faint Satellite System of NGC 55

We report the first comprehensive census of the satellite dwarf galaxies around NGC 55 (2.1 Mpc) as a part of the DECam Local Volume Exploration DEEP (DELVE-DEEP) survey. NGC 55 is one of four isolated, Magellanic analogs in the Local Volume around which DELVE-DEEP aims to identify faint dwarfs and other substructures. We employ two complementary detection methods: one targets fully resolved dwarf galaxies by identifying them as stellar overdensities, while the other focuses on semiresolved dwarf galaxies, detecting them through shredded unresolved light components. As shown through extensive tests with injected galaxies, our search is sensitive to candidates down to M V ≲ −6.6 and surface brightness μ ≲ 28.5 mag arcsec 2 , and ∼80% complete down to M V ≲ −7.8. We do not report any new confirmed satellites beyond two previously known systems, ESO 294–010 and NGC 55-dw1. We construct the satellite luminosity function of NGC 55 and find it to be consistent with the predictions from cosmological simulations. As one of the first complete luminosity functions for a Magellanic analog, our results provide a glimpse of the constraints on low-mass-host satellite populations that will be further explored by upcoming surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Medoff, Jonah [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States↗
DOE OSTI2025

Luminosity and Stellar Mass Functions of Faint Photometric Satellites around Spectroscopic Central Galaxies from DESI Year-1 Bright Galaxy Survey

We measure the luminosity functions (LFs) and stellar mass functions (SMFs) of photometric satellite galaxies around spectroscopically identified isolated central galaxies (ICGs). The photometric satellites are from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (DR9), while the spectroscopic ICGs are selected from the DESI Year-1 BGS sample. We can measure satellite LFs down to r-band absolute magnitudes of M r,sat ∼ −7, around ICGs as small as 7.1 < log 10 M *,ICG /M ⊙ < 7.8, with the stellar mass of ICGs measured by the DESI Fastspecfit pipeline. The satellite SMF can be measured down to log 10 M *,sat /M ⊙ ~ 5.5. Interestingly, we discover that the faint/low-mass end slopes of satellite LFs/SMFs become steeper with the decrease in the stellar masses of host ICGs, with smaller and nearby host ICGs capable of being used to probe their fainter satellites. The steepest slopes can be −2.298 ± 0.656 and −2.888 ± 0.916 for satellite LF and SMF, respectively. Detailed comparisons are performed between the satellite LFs around ICGs selected from DESI BGS or from the SDSS NYU-VAGC spectroscopic Main galaxies over 7.1 < log 10 M *,ICG /M ⊙ < 11.7, showing reasonable agreement, but we show that differences between DESI and SDSS stellar masses for ICGs play a role to affect the results. We also compare measurements based on DESI Fastspecfit and Cigale stellar masses used to bin ICGs, with the latter including the modeling of active galactic nuclei based on Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer photometry, and we find good agreements in the measured satellite LFs by using either of the DESI stellar mass catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mixed warm dark matter constraints using Milky Way satellite galaxy counts

Warm dark matter has been strongly constrained in recent years as the sole component of dark matter. However, a less-explored alternative is that dark matter consists of a mixture of warm and cold dark matter (MWDM). In this work, we use observations of Milky Way satellite galaxies to constrain MWDM scenarios where the formation of small-scale structure is suppressed either by generic thermal relic warm dark matter or a sterile neutrino produced through the Shi-Fuller mechanism. To achieve this, we model satellite galaxies by combining numerical simulations with semianalytical models for the subhalo population, and use a galaxy-halo connection model to match galaxies onto dark matter subhalos. By comparing the number of satellites predicted by MWDM models to the observed satellite population from the Dark Energy Survey and Pan-STARRS1, we constrain the fraction of warm dark matter, f WDM , as a function of its mass, m WDM . We exclude dark matter being composed entirely of thermal relic warm dark matter with m WDM ≤ 6.6 keV at a posterior ratio of 10 ∶ 1 , consistent with previous works. However, we find that warm dark matter with smaller mass is allowed when mixed with cold dark matter, and that the f WDM constraints strengthen with decreasing m WDM until they plateau at f WDM ≲ 0.45 for m WDM ≲ 1.5 keV . Likewise, in the case of a sterile neutrino with mass of 7 keV produced through the Shi-Fuller mechanism, we exclude a fraction of f ν s ≲ 0.45 , independent of mixing angle. Our results extend constraints on MWDM to a region of parameter space that has been relatively unconstrained with previous analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Evolution of of Radioisotope Thermal Generators

Introduction The advancement of space exploration started in 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 which was quickly followed by the launch of Explorer 1 in 1958. The advancement in space exploration had much to do about the development of nuclear power in space. Enabling satellites to draw more power than before and carry out long term mission. The Radio Isotopic thermal generator (RTG) was first invented in 1954 and earned its place in the inventor’s hall of fame in 2015. The RTG has been the key to our success in the exploration of deep space. With in this paper the evolution of the RTG will be covered including the missions they facilitated. In addition, the ever present political and public view of nuclear material will play a role in the history of the RTG and the modern possibilities for nuclear power in space.

Belian, Olivia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovery and Spectroscopic Confirmation of Aquarius III: A Low-mass Milky Way Satellite Galaxy

Abstract We present the discovery of Aquarius III, an ultra-faint Milky Way satellite galaxy identified in the second data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey. Based on deeper follow-up imaging with DECam, we find that Aquarius III is a low-luminosity ( M V = − 2.5 − 0.5 + 0.3 ; L V = 850 − 260 + 380 L ⊙ ), extended ( r 1 / 2 = 41 − 8 + 9 pc) stellar system located in the outer halo ( D ⊙ = 85 ± 4 kpc). From medium-resolution Keck/DEIMOS spectroscopy, we identify 11 member stars and measure a mean heliocentric radial velocity of v sys = − 13.1 − 0.9 + 1.0 km s − 1 for the system and place an upper limit of σ v < 3.5 km s −1 ( σ v < 1.6 km s −1 ) on its velocity dispersion at the 95% (68%) credible level. Based on calcium-triplet metallicities of the six brightest red giant members, we find that Aquarius III is very metal-poor ([Fe/H]= − 2.61 ± 0.21) with a statistically significant metallicity spread ( σ [ Fe / H ] = 0.46 − 0.14 + 0.26 dex). We interpret this metallicity spread as strong evidence that the system is a dwarf galaxy as opposed to a star cluster. Combining our velocity measurement with Gaia proper motions, we find that Aquarius III is currently situated near its orbital pericenter in the outer halo ( r peri = 78 ± 7 kpc) and that it is plausibly on first infall onto the Milky Way. This orbital history likely precludes significant tidal disruption from the Galactic disk, notably unlike other satellites with comparably low velocity dispersion limits in the literature. Thus, if further velocity measurements confirm that its velocity dispersion is truly below σ v ≲ 2 km s −1 , Aquarius III may serve as a useful laboratory for probing galaxy formation physics in low-mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗