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Altimetric system: Earth observing system. Volume 2h: Panel report
A rationale and recommendations for planning, implementing, and operating an altimetric system aboard the Earth observing system (Eos) spacecraft is provided. In keeping with the recommendations of the Eos Science and Mission Requirements Working Group, a complete altimetric system is defined that is capable of perpetuating the data set to be derived from TOPEX/Poseidon, enabling key scientific questions to be addressed. Since the scientific utility and technical maturity of spaceborne radar altimeters is well documented, the discussion is limited to highlighting those Eos-specific considerations that materially impact upon radar altimetric measurements.
The FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS): Earth System Modeling to Support Famine Early Warning
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Open-Source Science-Driven Development of the Science Data System (SDS) for Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmospheric Missions
The NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO) atmospheric missions will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The Science Data System (SDS) will deploy the adaptive processing system (APS) developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of ESO atmospheric mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for near real-time and collection reprocessing and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage and distribution. Further, the SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The SDS follows NASA’s commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of APS itself as well as ESO atmospheric mission algorithms. This presentation describes the framework of the SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the ESO atmospheric missions.
Advanced Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT)
ESA and NASA have both started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. Earth System Digital Twins integrate diverse Earth and human activity models, continuous observations, and information system capabilities to provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will first provide a short description of ESA’s, NASA’s and CNES’s current efforts in Digital Twins: • Destination Earth (DestinE) is the first initiative of the European Union to create a Digital Twin of the Earth, particularly focused on weather and climate, and as a coordinated effort between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). • Additionally, ESA is developing several Digital Twin Earth Precursor Activities to study some of the key scientific and technical challenges associated with building a “Digital Twin Earth”. These include forests, hydrology, Antarctica, food systems, oceans, and climate hot spots Digital Twin prototypes. • NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has started an initiative in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT), with 14 current projects in this area, developing various information systems technologies and prototypes that will help prepare the development of future NASA Digital Twins. • CNES is currently developing the concept of a Digital Twin Factory (DTF), which relies on a data lake, a high computing capability using clouds and/or HPC and has thematic algorithms and methodologies able to generate registered and coherent layers of information in order to enrich a datacube from which physical indicators can be computed spatially. NASA, ESA and CNES are also currently defining science use cases that will be presented during the townhall; those and a few short discussions of current projects will serve as a starting point to engage a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.
Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling
Earth System modeling has become more complex, and its evaluation using satellite data has also become more difficult due to model and data diversity. Therefore, the fundamental methodology of using satellite direct measurements with instrumental simulators should be addressed especially for modeling community members lacking a solid background of radiative transfer and scattering theory. This manuscript introduces principles of multisatellite, multisensor radiance-based evaluation methods for a fully coupled regional Earth System model: NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. We use a NU-WRF case study simulation over West Africa as an example of evaluating aerosol-cloud-precipitation-land processes with various satellite observations. NU-WRF-simulated geophysical parameters are converted to the satellite-observable raw radiance and backscatter under nearly consistent physics assumptions via the multisensor satellite simulator, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. We present varied examples of simple yet robust methods that characterize forecast errors and model physics biases through the spatial and statistical interpretation of various satellite raw signals: infrared brightness temperature (Tb) for surface skin temperature and cloud top temperature, microwave Tb for precipitation ice and surface flooding, and radar and lidar backscatter for aerosol-cloud profiling simultaneously. Because raw satellite signals integrate many sources of geophysical information, we demonstrate user-defined thresholds and a simple statistical process to facilitate evaluations, including the infrared-microwave-based cloud types and lidar/radar-based profile classifications.
Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)
The term “Digital Twin” was first used in 2002 for product lifecycle management. Since then, Digital Twin concepts have been proposed in various domains until very recently for Earth Science. For NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as composed of three components: 1. A Digital Replica, i.e., an integrated picture of the past and current states of Earth systems 2. Forecasting capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems will evolve in the future from the current state 3. Impact Assessment capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems could evolve under different hypothetical what-if scenarios. Developing such a vision will require technologies related to: integrating continuous observations from various disparate sources; developing frameworks that builds on inter-connected models; improving the speed and accuracy of integrated prediction, analysis and visualization capabilities (e.g., by using machine learning); and utilizing causality and uncertainty quantification to improve our understanding of the evolution of Earth Science systems as a function of their interactions with other Earth and human systems. In addition, AIST is also investigating interoperability standards to federate multiple Digital Twins, as well as computational resources required by those systems.
The Earth System Model
The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.
An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory
NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.
An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory
NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.
Modeling the Earth system in the Mission to Planet Earth era
A broad overview is made of global earth system modeling in the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) era for the multidisciplinary audience encompassed by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP). Time scales of global system fluctuation and change are described in Section 2. Section 3 provides a rubric for modeling the global earth system, as presently understood. The ability of models to predict the future state of the global earth system and the extent to which their predictions are reliable are covered in Sections 4 and 5. The 'engineering' use of global system models (and predictions) is covered in Section 6. Section 7 covers aspects of an increasing need for improved transform algorithms and better methods to assimilate this information into global models. Future monitoring and data requirements are detailed in Section 8. Section 9 covers the NASA-initiated concept 'Mission to Planet Earth,' which employs space and ground based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. Section 10 concludes this review with general remarks concerning the state of global system modeling and observing technology and the need for future research.
Technology for Earth System Digital Twins
NASA IST Program is now designing and developing Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Earth System Digital Twins (ESDTs) are information systems for understanding, forecasting, and conjecturing the complex interconnections among Earth systems, including anthropomorphic forcings and impacts to humanity. This presentation will address the main technology and architecture challenges that need to be addressed to develop end-to-end ESDTs; along with these challenges, some of the solutions proposed by IST projects will be discussed.
NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Prototypes
NASA IST Program is now designing and developing Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Earth System Digital Twins (ESDTs) are information systems for understanding, forecasting, and conjecturing the complex interconnections among Earth systems, including anthropomorphic forcings and impacts to humanity. In order to define ESDT's technologies and architectures that will be needed for developing future operational ESTDs, the IST Program is developing several ESDT prototypes representing various use case domains and technological/architectural needs.
Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Technology for NASA Earth Science
For NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as an interactive and integrated multidomain, multiscale, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It dynamically integrates: relevant Earth system models and simulations; other relevant models (e.g., related to the world's infrastructure); continuous and timely (including near real time and direct readout) observations (e.g., space, air, ground, over/underwater, Internet of Things (IoT), socioeconomic); long-time records; as well as analytics and artificial intelligence tools. Effective ESDTs enable users to run hypothetical scenarios to improve the understanding, prediction of and mitigation/response to Earth system processes, natural phenomena and human activities as well as their many interactions. An ESDT is a type of integrated information system that, for example, enables continuous assessment of impact from naturally occurring and/or human activities on physical and natural environments. AIST ESDT strategic goals are to: 1. Develop information system frameworks to provide continuous and accurate representations of systems as they change over time; 2. Mirror various Earth Science systems and utilize the combination of Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread, and state-of-the-art models to help predict the Earth’s response to various phenomena; 3. Provide the tools to conduct "what if" investigations that can result in actionable predictions. The AIST ESDT thrust is developing capabilities toward the development of future digital twins of the Earth or of subcomponents of the Earth. This will enable the development of an overarching framework that will integrate New Observing Strategies (NOS) to enable new observation measurements, i.e., multi-source, coordinated, dynamic and responsive to needs and requests defined by Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) that enable agile science investigations fusing and analyzing very large amounts of diverse data. NOS and ACF capabilities along with open access to various science, infrastructure and human data, interconnected modeling, data assimilation, simulations, surrogate modeling, high-performance computing and advanced visualization, will define a powerful framework that could be utilized for local, regional or global and/or thematic digital twins. This presentation will describe a general overview of the AIST ESDT vision including prior work done in the areas of NOS and ACF as well as current and upcoming ESDT projects.
NASA GMAO Integrated Earth System Analysis
An Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) is the only possible way to assimilate all the available observations of separate components of the earth system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land, constituents, etc) into a single consistent Coupled Data Assimilation System (CDAS). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is developing an IESA for Reanalysis in an incremental fashion by coupling different components- one at a time, for e.g., the MERRA-2 reanalysis coupled aerosol and meteorological data assimilation systems. Following a similar approach the ocean (including sea-ice) is being coupled to the atmosphere, starting with the air-sea interface. This presentation briefly outlines GMAO's reanalysis road map and summarizes our recent work in that direction.
Effects of Water Limitation and Competition on Tree Carbon Allocation in an Earth System Modeling Framework
Earth system models (ESMs) have a limited capacity to represent plant functional diversity and shifts in trait distributions. Approaches to improving the representation of this complexity in ESMs include (i) optimality-based approaches that predict trait–environment responses and (ii) explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly. These approaches are expected to converge only when optimality-based approaches identify competitively dominant strategies, which often differ from strategies that maximize ecosystem functioning or fitness components in monoculture. We used two models, LM3-PPA (a vegetation demographic model designed as an ESM component) and BiomeE (a computationally efficient analog for LM3-PPA), to explore how water limitation affects carbon allocation strategies of canopy trees. We compared competitive allocation strategies and those that maximize biomass or productivity in monoculture. We did not explicitly model coexistence or community assembly. Rather, we used model experiments to identify competitive and maximizing strategies in a two-dimensional trait space under different precipitation and mortality scenarios. At 10 eastern US locations, we simulated historical, wet and dry climate scenarios, novel drought and three different mortality scenarios (low, medium or high sensitivity to water deficit). For each site and scenario, we identified the competitive strategy and three maximizing strategies (maximum biomass, productivity or drought-tolerance). Root: leaf ratios tended to increase and leaf area tended to decrease with increasing water stress (increasing water limitation and its effects on mortality). However, relative to maximizing strategies, competitive strategies shifted towards greater allocation to roots and leaves with increasing water stress. Competitive overinvestments (greater allocation to roots and leaves by competitive strategies compared with maximizing strategies) were robust across different modelling contexts, including vegetation parameter sets (Acer vs. Populus), models (LM3-PPA vs. BiomeE) and uncalibrated vs. calibrated BiomeE versions. Synthesis: The theoretical prediction that competitive and maximizing allocation strategies differ under water limitation is confirmed for a demographic model designed as an ESM component. Optimality-based trait predictions can simplify representing trait diversity in ESMs but do not always correspond to competitive outcomes. Explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly in ESMs is challenging but is likely the most general approach to representing trait diversity.
Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) 2023 Annual Review: Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)
On June 23, 2023, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) program conducted grouped annual reviews of all its Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) projects. This report regroups all these technical presentations.
Quantifying Earth System Interactions for Sustainable Food Production Via Expert Elicitation
Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.