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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Decadal Predictability in an Earth-System Model Using Explainable Neural Networks

We show that explainable neural networks can identify regions of oceanic variability that contribute predictability on decadal timescales in a fully coupled Earth-system model. The neural networks learn to use sea-surface temperature anomalies to predict future continental surface temperature anomalies. We then use a neural-network explainability method called layerwise relevance propagation to infer which oceanic patterns lead to accurate predictions made by the neural networks. In particular, regions within the North Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific Ocean lend the most predictability for surface temperature across continental North America. We apply the proposed methodology to decadal variability, although the concept is generalizable to other timescales of predictability. Furthermore, while our approach focuses on predictable patterns of internal variability within climate models, it should be generalizable to observational data as well. Our study contributes to the growing evidence that explainable neural networks are important tools for advancing geoscientific knowledge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improved Tree-Ring Archives Will Support Earth-System Science

A steep decline in archiving could make large tree-ring datasets irrelevant. But increased spatiotemporal coverage, the addition of novel parameters at sub-annual resolution, and integration with other in situ and remote Earth observations will elevate tree-ring data as an essential component of global-change research.

Babst, Flurin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolution dependence of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer in global storm-resolving climate simulations

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating cloud feedbacks and rapid responses in the ACCESS model

A cloud feedback diagnostic package is implemented in the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator General Circulation Model, based on the methodology of “cloud radiative kernels.” Using separate increased sea surface temperature and CO 2 experiments, both the “rapid response” cloud contribution to forcing and temperature-mediated cloud feedbacks are analyzed. Under increased temperature and CO 2 changes, temperature-mediated cloud radiative feedback dominates over the rapid response in the final radiative response. Cloud feedback is positive in both long and short wave, with short wave dominating global values. Contributing most to this are low to mid-level clouds, of medium-to-high optical thickness. As a means of illustration of the methodology, a number of key parameters related to clouds, precipitation, and convection that are typically used in “tuning” in the model are modified. These changes result in substantial impacts on the model's current climate, but only modest changes to rapid response and feedbacks occur globally, regionally, and as a function of cloud optical thickness and height. This limited set of experiments shows that cloud adjustments and feedbacks in this model are robust under these changes, lending confidence that both model climate change projections and the conclusions of attribution studies are not overly sensitive to such parameterization tuning. Of course, a considerably larger set of experiments would be needed to demonstrate that feedbacks and rapid response are robust under the wider set of tuning adjustments commonly undertaken.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Earth's water reservoirs in a changing climate

Progress towards achieving a quantitative understanding of the exchanges of water between Earth's main water reservoirs is reviewed with emphasis on advances accrued from the latest advances in Earth Observation from space. These exchanges of water between the reservoirs are a result of processes that are at the core of important physical Earth-system feedbacks, which fundamentally control the response of Earth's climate to the greenhouse gas forcing it is now experiencing, and are therefore vital to understanding the future evolution of Earth's climate. The changing nature of global mean sea level (GMSL) is the context for discussion of these exchanges. Different sources of satellite observations that are used to quantify ice mass loss and water storage over continents, how water can be tracked to its source using water isotope information and how the waters in different reservoirs influence the fluxes of water between reservoirs are described. The profound influence of Earth's hydrological cycle, including human influences on it, on the rate of GMSL rise is emphasized. The many intricate ways water cycle processes influence water exchanges between reservoirs and thus sea-level rise, including disproportionate influences by the tiniest water reservoirs, are emphasized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗
DOE OSTI2022

rfasst: An R tool to estimate air pollution impacts on health and agriculture

Existing scientific literature shows that health and agricultural impacts attributable to air pollution are significant and should be considered in the integrated analysis of human and Earth-system interactions. The implementation of policies that affect the power sector, the composition of the vehicle fleet or the investments and deployment of different energy sources will in turn result in different levels of air pollution. Even though the various methodologies for estimating the impacts of air pollution, such as exposure-response functions, are extensively applied by the scientific community, they are normally not included in integrated assessment modeling outputs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment at kennaook Cape Grim (3D-CAPE-k) Field Campaign Report

The objective of this campaign was to complement the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at kennaook (CAPE-k) in northwest Tasmania by deploying scanning, fixed pointing angle, and in situ aerosol, cloud, and precipitation remote-sensing instruments during the last six months of the experiment. These instruments provided a three-dimensional (3D) context to the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) vertically pointing observations collected at the kennaook Cape Grim (KCG) site and captured a portion of the life cycle of the clouds before and after the passage over the AMF2 vertical column. These 3D cloud measurements will be used in the near future to 1) investigate how the vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud properties are representative of the broader area and how these properties evolve during the portion of the cloud life cycle captured by the scanning instruments, 2) quantify how accurate the cloud fraction derived with assumptions from vertically pointing observations are compared with direct 3D cloud fraction measurements, 3) evaluate cloud fraction and liquid water path in the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator–Convective-scale (ACCESS-C) forecast model, and 4) evaluate aerosol and cloud products from the European Space Agency/Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (ESA/JAXA) Earth Cloud Aerosol Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) mission using the scanning measurements, offering more chances of exact collocation, thereby complementing the statistical approach we are planning to employ with AMF2 observations for that same purpose.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment

As part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project a numerical experiment known as G6sulfur has been designed in which temperatures under a high-forcing future scenario (SSP5-8.5) are reduced to those under a medium-forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5) using the proposed geoengineering technique of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). G6sulfur involves introducing sulfuric acid aerosol into the tropical stratosphere where it reflects incoming sunlight back to space, thus cooling the planet. Here, we compare the results from six Earth-system models that have performed the G6sulfur experiment and examine how SAI affects two important modes of natural variability, the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although all models show that SAI is successful in reducing global mean temperature as designed, they are also consistent in showing that it forces an increasingly positive phase of the NAO as the injection rate increases over the course of the 21st century, exacerbating precipitation reductions over parts of southern Europe compared with SSP5-8.5. In contrast to the robust result for the NAO, there is less consistency for the impact on the QBO, but the results nevertheless indicate a risk that equatorial SAI could cause the QBO to stall and become locked in a phase with permanent westerly winds in the lower stratosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Triple-Dip La Niña of 2020–22: Updates to the Correlation of ENSO With the Termination of Solar Cycles

The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet’s atmosphere. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun’s 22-year magnetic activity cycle. A solar cycle’s fiducial clock does not run from the canonical min or max, instead resetting when all old cycle polarity magnetic flux is cancelled at the equator, an event dubbed the “termination” of that solar cycle, or terminator. In a recent paper, we demonstrated with high statistical significance, a correlation between the occurrence of termination of the last five solar cycles and the transition from El Niño to La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and predicted that there would be a transition to La Niña in mid 2020. La Niña did indeed begin in mid-2020, and endured into 2023 as a rare “triple dip” event, but some of the solar predictions made did not occur until late 2021. This work examines what went right, what went wrong, the correlations between El Niño, La Niña and geomagnetic activity indices, and what might be expected for the general trends of large-scale global climate in the next decade.

Robert J Leamon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗