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At least 19 records

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Anomalies Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The species of sparrow identified by foraging under dense thickets, the Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) resides in the Eastern United States, some populations either permanently living in the southeastern US or migratory populations living in the North. The mostly migratory Eastern Towhee has been experiencing population changes since the 1980s in the Eastern Seaboard. This species is increasing during the winter and decreasing during the summer, which is their breeding season. The Christmas Bird Count shows that in the winter, the Eastern Towhee populations have been increasing in their northern wintering range by 0.2625% in Maryland, 0.056% in West Virginia, 0.133% in New Jersey, 0.049% in Virginia, and 0.224% in Delaware from 1984-2019. The Breeding Bird Survey Data shows that in the summer, the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining in the Eastern United States by -4.0635% in Maryland, -3.073% in West Virginia, -15.0722% in New Jersey, -3.9375% in Virginia, and -6.3735% in Delaware from 1984-2015. The average climate anomalies in June range from -0.108 to 0.3705 degrees Celsius while the average climate anomalies in January range from 0.1395 to 0.5014 degrees Celsius. The Eastern Towhee are moving northward towards their northern wintering range during the winter and we explore the hypothesis of northward range shift in association with climate change. Our research displays how the behavior patterns of species are varying due to this stressor and how to better conserve species like the Eastern Towhee.

Mahlet Mesfin↗

Forest Cover Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) is a large, ground-nesting sparrow-like bird in the Eastern United States that has shown dramatic population declines over the last 50 years. This species lives year-round in the southeastern U.S., but individuals from the northeastern U.S. migrate south in the winter and overlap with southeastern residents. The Eastern Towhee is one of the fastest-declining bird species in the eastern U.S. In this study, we compare Eastern Towhee population trends during the breeding season with winter population trends over the last three decades. Paradoxically, this species is significantly increasing in Maryland, West Virginia, New Jersey, Virginia, and Delaware during the winter, but decreasing during the summer. Using the national Breeding Bird Survey dataset, we show that the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining roughly at a rate of -11.58% in Maryland, -9.51% in West Virginia, -37.95% in New Jersey, -11.22% in Virginia, and -16.96% in Delaware per year from 1984-2015. But the populations have been increasing during winter roughly at a rate of 0.62% in Maryland, 0.05% in West Virginia, 0.33% in New Jersey, 0.08% in Virginia, and 0.51% in Delaware per year from 1984-2019, using the Christmas Bird Count. We explore a variety of hypotheses to explain this paradox, including a northward range shift in association with climate change, as well as changes in habitat availability. Our study documents how the natural world is changing in complex ways due to many stressors and will help understand how to conserve the Eastern Towhee.

Meklit Mesfin↗

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

Increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades: Roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions: INCREASE IN WINTER HAZE IN EASTERN CHINA

The increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades due to variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions was quantified using observed atmospheric visibility from the National Climatic Data Center Global Summary of Day database for 1980–2014 and simulated PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Observed winter haze days averaged over eastern China (105–122.5°E, 20–45°N) increased from 21 d in 1980 to 42 d in 2014, and from 22 to 30 d between 1985 and 2005. The GEOS-Chem model captured the increasing trend of winter PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005, with concentrations averaged over eastern China increasing from 16.1 μg m -3 in 1985 to 38.4 μg m -3 in 2005. Considering variations in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorological parameters, the model simulated an increase in winter surface-layer PM2.5 concentrations of 10.5 (±6.2) μg m -3 decade -1 over eastern China. The increasing trend was only 1.8 (±1.5) μg m -3 decade -1 when variations in meteorological parameters alone were considered. Among the meteorological parameters, the weakening of winds by -0.09 m s -1 decade -1 over 1985–2005 was found to be the dominant factor leading to the decadal increase in winter aerosol concentrations and haze days over eastern China during recent decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges and Prospects for Reducing Coupled Climate Model SST Biases in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans: The U.S. CLIVAR Eastern Tropical Oceans Synthesis Working Group

Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued here an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)

With their extensive coverage, marine low clouds greatly impact global climate. Presently, marine low clouds are poorly represented in global climate models, and the response of marine low clouds to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols remains the major source of uncertainty in climate simulations. The Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region of persistent but diverse subtropical marine boundary layer clouds, whose albedo and precipitation are highly susceptible to perturbations in aerosol properties. In addition, the ENA is periodically impacted by continental aerosols, making it an excellent location to study the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budget in a remote marine region periodically perturbed by anthropogenic emissions, and to investigate the impacts of long-range transport of aerosols on remote marine clouds. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign was motivated by the need of comprehensive in-situ measurements for improving the understanding of marine boundary layer CCN budget, cloud and drizzle microphysics, and the impact of aerosol on marine low cloud and precipitation. The airborne deployments took place from June 21 to July 20, 2017 and January 15 to February 18, 2018 in the Azores. The flights were designed to maximize the synergy between in-situ airborne measurements and ongoing long-term observations at a ground site. Here we present measurements, observation strategy, meteorological conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings. Lastly, we discuss future analyses and modeling studies that improve the understanding and representation of marine boundary layer aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and the interactions among them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

Eastern Washington Disasters: Integrating NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Spatiotemporal Distributions of Lightning-Caused Wildfires in Eastern Washington

According to the Washington Department of Natural Resources, roughly 36% of large fires in the state since 2010 were caused by lightning. General trends also show a greater increase in the number of lightning-ignited fires over the last three decades. The NASA DEVELOP Eastern Washington Disasters team partnered with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter to analyze the relationship between lightning strikes and wildfire events in Eastern Washington, with an emphasis on Kittitas and Yakima Counties. Using the International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor, the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager vegetation moisture index, and Washington Department of Natural Resources historical fire data, the team generated a lightning-caused fire vulnerability index for 2001-2019. Climatology maps of lightning, wildfire, and vegetation moisture of the study area, along with an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, further communicated project findings. The project results demonstrated that spatiotemporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in Eastern Washington can be useful to inform land management practices and better predict areas that may be more vulnerable to these events.

Disasters↗

Eastern Washington Disasters: Integrating NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Spatiotemporal Distributions of Lightning-Caused Wildfires in Eastern Washington

According to the Washington Department of Natural Resources, roughly 36% of large fires in the statesince 2010 were caused by lightning. General trends also show a greater increase in the number of lightning-ignited fires over the last three decades. The NASA DEVELOP Eastern Washington Disasters team partnered with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter to analyze the relationship between lightning strikes and wildfire events in Eastern Washington, with an emphasis on Kittitas and Yakima Counties. Using the International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor, the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager vegetation moisture index, and Washington Department of Natural Resources historical fire data, the team generated a lightning-caused fire vulnerability index for 2001-2019. Climatology maps of lightning, wildfire, and vegetation moisture of the study area, along with an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, further communicated project findings. The project results demonstrated that spatiotemporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in Eastern Washington can be useful to inform land management practices and better predict areas that may be more vulnerable to these events.

Disasters↗

A Field Survey of Rare Earth Element Concentrations in Process Streams Produced by Coal Preparation Plants in the Eastern USA

I this work, a field study was undertaken to experimentally measure the concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs) contained in the process streams generated by a group of 20 coal preparation plants located in the eastern USA. For each site, representative samples of clean coal product, coarse refuse, and fine refuse were collected. Each sample was then partitioned into preselected size and density classes by wet screening/sieving and float-sink testing. The resultant products were dried and subjected to laboratory analyses to determine ash contents and rare earth element concentrations including Yttrium and Scandium. A detailed analysis of the database generated by this exercise showed that coal-based products from these preparation plants contained significant quantities of rare earth elements. In particular, the coarse refuse streams currently discarded by the 20 plants examined were found to contain a sufficient tonnage of REEs to satisfy the current domestic demand for these important elements. The data also showed a strong positive correlation between ash content and REE concentration, which suggested that the primary association of REEs in eastern USA bituminous coal sources is likely within fractions containing inorganic impurities. This association was well described using a simple power equation relating ash content and REE concentration. The ratio of heavy-to-light rare earth elements was discovered to be significantly higher in organically rich fractions of clean coal, suggesting that mineral impurities intimately associated with carbonaceous matter have elevated concentrations of heavy rare earth elements. A similar trend was observed for a grouping of rare earth elements (Y, Nd, Eu, Tb, and Dy) that are likely subject to near-term supply shortages. Finally, the database showed that a linear correlation existed between La for many REEs of interest, although there were several notable exceptions for some high-value REEs (Lu, Pr, and Tb).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Midlatitude Oceanic Cloud and Precipitation Properties as Sampled By the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Observatory

Marine low clouds are critical to the climate system because of their extensive coverage and associated controls on boundary layer dynamics and radiative energy balance. The primary foci for this study are marine low cloud observations over a heavily instrumented site on the Azores archipelago in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) and their associated raindrop size distribution (DSD) properties, relative low-cloud contributions to the precipitation, and additional sampling (instrument, environmental) considerations. The contribution from low clouds (e.g., cloud top < 4 km) to the overall precipitation over midlatitude oceans is poorly understood, in part because of the lack of coupled, high-quality measurements of precipitation and low-cloud properties. Cloud regime and precipitation breakdowns performed for a multi-year record emphasize the diurnal precipitation cycle and DSD characteristics for both low and deeper clouds. Results demonstrate that marine low clouds over this ENA location account for a significant (45%) contribution to the total rainfall and exhibit a diurnal cycle in cloud (thickness, top, base) and precipitation characteristics similar to satellite records. Additional controls on observed surface rainfall characteristics of low clouds allowed by the extended ground-based facility datasets are also explored. From those analyses, it is suggested that the synoptic state exerts a significant control on low-cloud and surface precipitation properties.

Giangrande, Scott↗