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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Strength of Coupling to the Southern Ocean Modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific Variability and Forced Response

Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and Analyses to Enable Science for the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE)

Coastal cities provide the opportunity to characterize the substantial effects of manmade particles on marine cloud properties and processes. La Jolla lies to the north of San Diego, California, but it is often about a day directly downwind of the major pollution sources located in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The large dynamic range of aerosol particle concentrations combined with the multi-hour to multi-day persistence of stratocumulus cloud layers makes the site ideal for investigating the seasonal changes in cloud and aerosol properties as well as the quantitative relationships between cloud and aerosol properties. The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) characterized the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific across all four seasons at two coastal sites in La Jolla. This project was designed to enhance and expand the scientific uses of the ARM AMF1 measurements from EPCAPE. The goal was to ensure meaningful observations were collected that would enable science. The project included the following objectives: (1) Reviewing the ARM AMF1 measurements [ARM, 2021a; b] and circulating a summary of the measurements each week, (2) Comparing AMF1 measurements to those provided by collaborators (including filter measurements at the pier), (3) Collecting and analyzing filter samples from Scripps Pier by Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), (4) Assisting in operations of instruments provided by Guest PIs when possible, and (5) Providing an initial compilation of EPCAPE aerosol and cloud seasonal differences. The expected outcomes of these objectives were enhanced proposals and publications using EPCAPE measurements by helping to identify instrument issues, expanded data access and awareness by distributing weekly plots and related summaries, improved source-related attribution of aerosols with elemental tracers, additional observations provided by Guest PIs, and accelerated ACI studies enabled by the compiled seasonal summaries of aerosol and cloud properties. Three examples of the science enabled by this project are findings that (i) aerosol and cloud aqueous production contributes more than half of sulfate particle mass concentration, (ii) upwind sources make chemical composition very similar at nearby sites despite local differences in meteorology, and (iii) most of the large mass concentration of semi-volatile organic components is co-emitted and co-evaporated with nitrate. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in coastal regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations. By using the unique ARM suite of cloud radiative products in addition to the measured aerosol properties at a coastal location, we were able to address the more specific question of which aerosol particles cause how much of the effects on clouds. Identifying this signature in coastal areas provides an opportunity to test the representation of aerosol sources by global models in a range of clean and urban-influenced conditions.

Russell, Lynn [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Eastern Pacific Hurricanes on the Southwest US Wildfire Environment

Abstract While some previous studies examined the contribution of Eastern Pacific (EP) hurricanes toward precipitation in the arid Southwest US (SWUS), their potential to influence wildfires in that region has not been explored. Here we show, using observations and simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), that recurving EP hurricanes modulate the wildfire environment in the SWUS by increasing precipitation and soil moisture, and reducing the vapor pressure deficit. This is especially the case during late season months of September–October when the likelihood of storms to recurve and make landfall increases. Further, analysis of burnt area observations reveals that for the months of September–October, recurving EP hurricanes may significantly reduce the prevalence of wildfires in the SWUS. Finally, E3SM simulations indicate that late season EP hurricanes have been on the decline, with important implications for wildfires in the SWUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Microphysics and Chemical Measurements at Mt. Soledad and Scripps Pier during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) from February 2023 to February 2024 UCSD Library Collection

This dataset includes guest instrument measurements and other PI products for aerosol microphysics and chemical measurements collected at Mt. Soledad and Scripps Pier during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) from February 2023 to February 2024. The measurements include the following instruments at Mt. Soledad: High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS, Aerodyne), Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS, Brechtel Manufacturing Inc.), Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS, Droplet Measurements Technologies), Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2, Drople Measurements Technologies), Meteorological Station (WXT520, Vaisala), Ozone (Teco), and trace gas proxies (Teledyne). In addition, the analyses of particle filters collected at Mt. Soledad for three dry-diameter size cuts (<1 micron, <0.5 micron, <0.18 micron) and at Scripps Pier for one dry-diameter size cut (<1 micron) by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) are reported. A differential mobility analyzer operated as a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS, TSI Inc.), a printed particle optical spectrometer (POPS, Grimm), and a continuous flow diffusion cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, DMT) counter provide the mobility aerosol size distribution (30-360 nm), optical size distribution (150 - 6000 nm), size-resolved CCN distribution (30-360 nm) at 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0% supersaturation. Measurements are reported for both sampling from an isokinetic aerosol inlet and from a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI, Brechtel Manufacturing Inc.). The data are available at the following link: https://library.ucsd.edu/dc/collection/bb0898306q

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) Science Plan

Coastal cities provide the opportunity to characterize marine clouds and the substantial effects of manmade particles on cloud properties and processes. La Jolla lies to the north of San Diego, California, but it is often about a day directly downwind of the major pollution sources located in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The large dynamic range of aerosol particle concentrations combined with the multi-hour to multi-day persistence of stratocumulus cloud layers makes the site ideal for investigating the seasonal changes in cloud and aerosol properties as well as the quantitative relationships between cloud and aerosol properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing the quantification of aerosol-cloud interactions with the CALIPSO-CloudSat-Aqua/MODIS record

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are assessed over the non-polar ocean using more than 11 years of combined Aqua-MODIS, CALIPSO-CALIOP, and CloudSat products. The analysis first shows the benefit of incorporating vertically resolved aerosol extinction coefficient (σext) in aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) assessments, demonstrating that: σext vertically collocated with the cloud layer () correlates best with cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) cannot explain the Nd variability in the extratropics, and the S-shape of the AOD-Nd relationship reported in previous studies is not replicated when using instead of AOD, with a Nd- linearity more consistent with in-situ studies over the ocean. ACI metric, estimated as the log-scale regression between CALIOP and MODIS Nd reveals that the eastern Pacific is the region with the strongest ACI, followed by the Southern Ocean. The susceptibility of clouds to changes in their liquid water path (LWP) and frequency of precipitation followed a 2-step calculation by combining the Nd- regression (ACI) with the regression between these macrophysical variables and Nd. LWP susceptibility is negative (LWP decreases with aerosol loading) and statistically significant over the eastern Pacific, eastern Atlantic, and extratropics. In contrast, vast areas of the tropical and subtropical ocean feature negligible changes in LWP with aerosol. Precipitation frequency susceptibility is negative, but the values are only significant over the coastal eastern Pacific and Atlantic. The findings suggest that previous modeling assessments relying on AOD may need to be revisited by taking advantage of the synergy between passive and active sensors.

Li, Zhujun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Seasonal Cycle by Tropical Instability Waves

Feedbacks from tropical instability waves (TIWs) on the seasonal cycle of the eastern Pacific Ocean are studied using two eddy-rich ocean simulations, with and without TIWs. By warming the equatorial waters by up to 0.4°C through nonlinear advection in boreal summer and fall, TIWs reduce the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in upper ocean temperatures. In addition, TIWs stabilize the upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) through enhanced barotropic energy conversion, leading to a year-round weakening by -0.15 m s -1 and preventing an unrealistic re-intensification in boreal fall usually found in non-eddy resolving models. A coarser simulation at 1-degree horizontal resolution fails to reproduce the TIW-induced nonlinear warming of equatorial waters, but succeeds in inhibiting the EUC re-intensification. This suggests a threshold effect in TIW strength, associated with the model's ability to simulate eddies, which may be responsible for long-standing biases displayed by global climate models in this region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Regionality of Moist Kelvin Waves and the MJO: The Critical Role of the Background Zonal Flow

Abstract A global model with superparameterized physics is used to shed light on the observed regionality of convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). A series of aquaplanet simulations over zonally uniform sea‐surface temperatures is performed, in which the axisymmetric structure of the background zonal flow is altered through nudging, while maintaining a quasi‐fixed rainfall climatology. Results show that nudging at the equator to match profiles typical of the Indo‐Pacific or eastern Pacific sectors yields eastward‐moving tropical rain spectra typical of those sectors. Two different mechanistic pathways are identified as being responsible for this mean‐flow dependence, in addition to Doppler shifting effects. The first is through shifts of the Rossby wave critical line in the subtropical upper troposphere that affect the lateral forcing of Kelvin‐mode circulations at the equator by eastward and equatorward‐propagating eddies impinging on the tropics from higher latitudes. The second is through changes in the strength of the mean cyclonic shear in the lower tropical troposphere that affect the degree to which intraseasonal fluctuations in Kelvin‐mode zonal winds modulate the activity of higher‐frequency equatorial Rossby‐type eddies. In cases where the mean low‐level cyclonic shear is enhanced, the strength of this modulation, referred to as “shear‐induced eddy modulation” or SIEM, is also seen to be enhanced, such that MJO‐like modes of variability are rendered either unstable or near neutral, depending on the strength of the shear.

Tulich, S. N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution

Abstract A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

Vimont, Daniel J.↗