Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Ecological modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Opportunities for using the EOS Imaging Spectrometers and synthetic aperture radar in ecological models

Several promising approaches to assessing biochemical and architectural properties of landscapes are outlined. Strategies for using new EOS sensors in ecological models are examined. Ways in which ecological and remote sensing models can utilize information provided by the new sensors to characterize ecological properties at coarse scales and to estimate within-ecosystem properties are addressed.

Ustin, Susan L.

HydroEcoLSTM: A Python package with graphical user interface for hydro-ecological modeling with long short-term memory neural network

Machine learning (ML) is emerging as a promising tool for modeling hydro-ecological processes due to the increasing availability of large environmental data. However, the use of ML requires sufficient programming knowledge due to a lack of a graphical user interface (GUI). In this study, we introduced a GUI package, named HydroEcoLSTM, with the long short-term memory network (LSTM) as the core model, that allows non-ML experts to utilize their domain knowledge to construct complex ML models. We demonstrated the functionalities of HydroEcoLSTM with two practical examples, including (1) predictions of streamflow in both gauged and ungauged catchments and (2) predictions of multiple outputs (i.e., streamflow and isotope transport from two catchments). The simulation results obtained in both case experiments are satisfactory. In the first example, the average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for streamflow simulation during the testing period is 0.79 while the application of the trained model in two assumed ungauged catchments also achieves the average NSE of 0.68. In the second example, the average NSE for streamflow and instream isotope simulation during the testing period is 0.71. Ultimately, applications of HydroEcoLSTM with real-world examples demonstrate its potential use for practical applications and research without requiring extensive coding skills.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing and Ecological Modeling Research and Education at Mid America Remote Sensing Center (MARC): Field and Laboratory Enhancement

The purpose of this project was to establish a new hyperspectral remote sensing laboratory at the Mid-America Remote sensing Center (MARC), dedicated to in situ and laboratory measurements of environmental samples and to the manipulation, analysis, and storage of remotely sensed data for environmental monitoring and research in ecological modeling using hyperspectral remote sensing at MARC, one of three research facilities of the Center of Reservoir Research at Murray State University (MSU), a Kentucky Commonwealth Center of Excellence. The equipment purchased, a FieldSpec FR portable spectroradiometer and peripherals, and ENVI hyperspectral data processing software, allowed MARC to provide hands-on experience, education, and training for the students of the Department of Geosciences in quantitative remote sensing using hyperspectral data, Geographic Information System (GIS), digital image processing (DIP), computer, geological and geophysical mapping; to provide field support to the researchers and students collecting in situ and laboratory measurements of environmental data; to create a spectral library of the cover types and to establish a World Wide Web server to provide the spectral library to other academic, state and Federal institutions. Much of the research will soon be published in scientific journals. A World Wide Web page has been created at the web site of MARC. Results of this project are grouped in two categories, education and research accomplishments. The Principal Investigator (PI) modified remote sensing and DIP courses to introduce students to ii situ field spectra and laboratory remote sensing studies for environmental monitoring in the region by using the new equipment in the courses. The PI collected in situ measurements using the spectroradiometer for the ER-2 mission to Puerto Rico project for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Airborne Simulator (MAS). Currently MARC is mapping water quality in Kentucky Lake and vegetation in the Land-Between-the Lakes (LBL) using Landsat-TM data. A Landsat-TM scene of the same day was obtained to relate ground measurements to the satellite data. A spectral library has been created for overstory species in LBL. Some of the methods, such as NPDF and IDFD techniques for spectral unmixing and reduction of effects of shadows in classifications- comparison of hyperspectral classification techniques, and spectral nonlinear and linear unmixing techniques, are being tested using the laboratory.

Cetin, Haluk

Increasing the Uptake of Ecological Model Results in Policy Decisions to Improve Biodiversity Outcomes

Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains uncommon. We share insights from a multidisciplinary National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center working group on technical, communication, and process-related factors that facilitate or hamper uptake of model results. We emphasize that it is not simply technical model improvements, but active and iterative stakeholder involvement that can lead to more impactful outcomes. In particular, trust- and relationship-building with decision-makers are key for knowledge-based decision making. In this respect, nurturing knowledge exchange on the interpersonal (e.g., through participatory processes), and institutional level (e.g., through science-policy interfaces across scales), represent promising approaches. To this end, we offer a generalized approach for linking modeling and decision-making.

Biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships

An Overview of Ecological Modeling and Machine Learning Research Within the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

In the early 1980 s NASA began research to understand global habitability and quantify the processes and fluxes between the Earth's vegetation and the biosphere. This effort evolved into the Earth Observing System Program which current encompasses 18 platforms and 80 sensors. During this time, the global environmental research community has evolved from a data poor to a data rich research area and is challenged to provide timely use of these new data. This talk will outline some of the data mining research NASA has funded in support for the environmental sciences in the Intelligent Systems project and will give a specific example in ecological forecasting, predicting the land surface properties given nowcasts and weather forecasts, using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS).

Coughlan, Joseph C.

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics

Automatic variable selection in ecological niche modeling: A case study using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii)

MERRA/Max provides a feature selection approach to dimensionality reduction that enables direct use of global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling. The system accomplishes this reduction through a Monte Carlo optimization in which many independent MaxEnt runs, operating on a species occurrence file and a small set of randomly selected variables in a large collection of variables, converge on an estimate of the top contributing predictors in the larger collection. These top predictors can be viewed as potential candidates in the variable selection step of the ecological niche modeling process. MERRA/Max’s Monte Carlo algorithm operates on files stored in the underlying filesystem, making it scalable to large data sets. Its software components can run as parallel processes in a high-performance cloud computing environment to yield near real-time performance. In tests using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii) as the target species, MERRA/Max selected a set of predictors from Worldclim’s Bioclim collection of 19 environmental variables that have been shown to be important determinants of the species’ bioclimatic niche. It also selected biologically and ecologically plausible predictors from a more diverse set of 86 environmental variables derived from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, an output product of the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system. We believe these results point to a technological approach that could expand the use global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling, foster exploratory experimentation with otherwise difficult-to-use climate data sets, streamline the modeling process, and, eventually, enable automated bioclimatic modeling as a practical, readily accessible, low-cost, commercial cloud service.

John L. Schnase

Forward Modeling of Carbonate Proxy Data from Planktonic Foraminifera using Oxygen Isotope Tracers in a Global Ocean Model

The distribution and variation of oxygen isotopes in seawater are calculated using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global ocean model. Simple ecological models are used to estimate the planktonic foraminiferal abundance as a function of depth, column temperature, season, light intensity, and density stratification. These models are combined to forward model isotopic signals recorded in calcareous ocean sediment. The sensitivity of the results to the changes in foraminiferal ecology, secondary calcification, and dissolution are also examined. Simulated present-day isotopic values for ecology relevant for multiple species compare well with core-top data. Hindcasts of sea surface temperature and salinity are made from time series of the modeled carbonate isotope values as the model climate changes. Paleoclimatic inferences from these carbonate isotope records are strongly affected by erroneous assumptions concerning the covariations of temperature, salinity, and delta (sup 18)O(sub w). Habitat-imposed biases are less important, although errors due to temperature-dependent abundances can be significant.

Schmidt, Gavin A.

Mapping the Extent of Mangrove Ecosystem Degradation by Integrating an Ecological Conceptual Model with Satellite Data

Anthropogenic and natural disturbances can cause degradation of ecosystems, reducing their capacity to sustain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. Understanding the extent of ecosystem degradation is critical for estimating risks to ecosystems, yet there are few existing methods to map degradation at the ecosystem scale and none using freely available satellite data for mangrove ecosystems. In this study, we developed a quantitative classification model of mangrove ecosystem degradation using freely available earth observation data. Crucially, a conceptual model of mangrove ecosystem degradation was established to identify suitable remote sensing variables that support the quantitative classification model, bridging the gap between satellite-derived variables and ecosystem degradation with explicit ecological links. We applied our degradation model to two case-studies, the mangroves of Rakhine State, Myanmar, which are severely threatened by anthropogenic disturbances, and Shark River within the Everglades National Park, USA, which is periodically disturbed by severe tropical storms. Our model suggested that 40% (597 km2) of the extent of mangroves in Rakhine showed evidence of degradation. In the Everglades, the model suggested that the extent of degraded mangrove forest increased from 5.1% to 97.4% following the Category 4 Hurricane Irma in 2017. Quantitative accuracy assessments indicated the model achieved overall accuracies of 77.6% and 79.1% for the Rakhine and the Everglades, respectively. We highlight that using an ecological conceptual model as the basis for building quantitative classification models to estimate the extent of ecosystem degradation ensures the ecological relevance of the classification models. Our developed method enables researchers to move beyond only mapping ecosystem distribution to condition and degradation as well. These results can help support ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting, and restoration planning and provide quantitative estimates of ecosystem degradation for new global biodiversity targets.

Calvin K. F. Lee

Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models

Mapping aboveground forest biomass is central for assessing the global carbon balance. However, current large-scale maps show strong disparities, despite good validation statistics of their underlying models. Here, we attribute this contradiction to a flaw in the validation methods, which ignore spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, leading to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power. To illustrate this issue, we reproduce the approach of large-scale mapping studies using a massive forest inventory dataset of 11.8 million trees in central Africa to train and validate a random forest model based on multispectral and environmental variables. A standard nonspatial validation method suggests that the model predicts more than half of the forest biomass variation, while spatial validation methods accounting for SAC reveal quasi-null predictive power. This study underscores how a common practice in big data mapping studies shows an apparent high predictive power, even when predictors have poor relationships with the ecological variable of interest, thus possibly leading to erroneous maps and interpretations.

biomass

Western Montana Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Habitat Suitability of Mustelid Species to Guide Detection Dog Surveys for Contaminants Monitoring, via Collected Scats in River Systems of Western Montana

Environmental contaminants are becoming increasingly prevalent in riverine ecosystems. The status of contaminants in western Montana’s relatively pristine river systems is largely unknown. Monitoring for heavy metals, brominated flame-retardants (BFRs), and pharmaceuticals is important due to their negative effects on ecosystems. Exposure to these contaminants can have significant endocrine, neurological, and reproductive effects. Contaminants easily travel up the food chain and bioaccumulate in apex predators. As predators with a largely aquatic diet, American mink (Mustela vison) and North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) serve as reliable indicator species of environmental health and the status of contaminants. Analysis of scat from these species is a noninvasive method to measure contaminant levels, and detection dogs from Working Dogs for Conservation (WD4C) have been used to locate these scat samples. To aid in the search of these samples, habitat suitability models were created for mink and otter for the years 2013-2020 and projected to 2040 using the random forest algorithm in the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). Predictor variable data were acquired from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Within these models, the most important variable for mink and otter habitat was distance to river. Suitable habitat also corresponded with emergent herbaceous land cover and deeper river locations. These habitat suitability models will inform sampling site section for further contaminant analysis.

Anna Winter

Northeast US Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Invasive Plant Habitat Suitability to Support Management Efforts in the American Northeast

Invasive plant species threaten environmental and economic interests when they spread into new areas, outcompete native species, and disrupt ecosystem services. If the spread is not controlled early, species can become well-established and increasingly difficult to manage. The National Park Service (NPS) Invasive Plant Management Teams (IPMTs) strive for an “early detection, rapid response” approach to reducing invasive species spread. Management teams can better prioritize their work with the help of species distribution models (SDMs), which map habitat suitability by combining species occurrences with environmental predictor variables. Scarce invaded range data for newly arrived invasive species presents a particular challenge for producing accurate models. To improve future modeling efforts, this project compared SDM methods using different spatial scales to model two plant species invasive to the Northeast US: the well-established Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) and newer invasive species wavyleaf basketgrass (Oplismenus undulatifolius). The team used NASA Earth observations and climate datasets to model occurrence data and predictor layers at a US-specific extent (90m2 spatial resolution) and global extent (1 km2 spatial resolution). Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provided data for US Normalized Difference Moisture Indices (NDMI), while global NDMI and topographic predictor layers were derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting models indicated important predictor variables for each species and explored the benefits and tradeoffs of using global data to model habitat suitability for new-arrival invasive species.

Rebecca Ohman

Beyond Ecosystem Modeling: A Roadmap to Community Cyberinfrastructure for Ecological Data-Model Integration

In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks to informing models with observations have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of available data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modeling and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data‐model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, and transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, including both modelers and empiricists. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying foundations of community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model‐data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community‐driven approach is a key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century.

Istem Fer