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At least 19 records

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending: Executive summary

An evaluation of the economic impact of NASA research and development programs is made. The methodology and the results revolve around the interrelationships existing between the demand and supply effects of increased research and development spending, in particular, NASA research and development spending. The INFORUM Inter-Industry Forecasing Model is used to measure the short-run economic impact of alternative levels of NASA expenditures for 1975. An aggregate production function approach is used to develop the data series necessary to measure the impact of NASA research and development spending, and other determinants of technological progress, on the rate of growth in productivity of the U. S. economy. The measured relationship between NASA research and development spending and technological progress is simulated in the Chase Macroeconometric Model to measure the immediate, intermediate, and long-run economic impact of increased NASA research and development spending over a sustained period.

Evans, M. K.↗

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

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Analysis of operational requirements for medium density air transportation. Volume 1: Summary

The medium density air travel market was studied to determine the aircraft design and operational requirements. The impact of operational characteristics on the air travel system and the economic viability of the study aircraft were also evaluated. Medium density is defined in terms of numbers of people transported (20 to 500 passengers per day on round trip routes), and frequency of service ( a minumium of two and maximum of eight round trips per day) for 10 regional carriers. The operational characteristics of aircraft best suited to serve the medium density air transportation market are determined and a basepoint aircraft is designed from which tradeoff studies and parametric variations could be conducted. The impact of selected aircraft on the medium density market, economics, and operations is ascertained. Research and technology objectives for future programs in medium density air transportation are identified and ranked.

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Orbital transfer vehicle concept definition and system analysis study. Volume 1A: Executive summary. Phase 2

The objectives of the Phase 2 study were to improve the orbit transfer vehicle (OTV) concept definition by focusing on the following issues: the impact of mission requirements on OTV system design; OTV basing concepts on the Space Shuttle, separate platforms, and/or remote locations; cost reduction of an OTV program to improve its economic benefits and support its acquisition. The OTV mission scenario includes a wide range of missions the main drivers of which are manned GEO servicing, mid-inclination/polar DOD, and lunar/planetary projects. A mission model is presented which includes the type and number of missions per year and the estimated propellant requirements. To accomplish the missions, many OTV concepts were defined including ground-based OTVs launched either in the STS orbiter, the aft cargo carrier, or a heavy lift launch vehicle, and a space-based OTV. System and program trade studies were conducted using performance, cost, safety/risk, and operations/growth criteria. The study shows that mission requirements and substantial economic benefits justify a reusable, cryogenic (H2/O2) space-based OTV. Such a system would not be subjected to Earth-to-orbit launch loads and would not be constained in size or weight. Safety is enhanced by the fact that the system components are launched unfueled. Its inherent reusability and ability to be refueled in space make the space-based OTV very economical to operate.

Ketchum, W. J.↗

Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

Fujita, Shigeru↗

An economic assessment of STOL aircraft potential including terminal area environmental considerations, volume 1

The results of an economic and environmental study of short haul airline systems using short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft are presented. The STOL system characteristics were optimized for maximum patronage at a specified return on investment, while maintaining noise impact compatibility with the terminal area. Supporting studies of aircraft air pollution and hub airport congestion relief were also performed. The STOL concept specified for this study was an Augmentor Wing turbofan aircraft having a field length capability of 2,000 ft. and an effective perceived noise level of 95 EPNdB at 500 ft. sideline distance. An economic and environmental assessment of the defined STOL system and a summary of the methodology, STOL system characteristics and arena characteristics are provided.

Solomon, H. L.↗

Operational cost drivers

To be economically viable, the operations cost of launch vehicles must be reduced by an order of magnitude as compared to the Space Transportation System (STS). A summary of propulsion-related operations cost drivers derived from a two-year study of Shuttle ground operations is presented. Examples are given of the inordinate time and cost of launch operations caused by propulsion systems designs that did not adequately consider impacts on prelaunching processing. Typical of these cost drivers are those caused by central hydraulic systems, storable propellants, gimballed engines, multiple propellants, He and N2 systems and purges, hard starts, high maintenance turbopumps, accessibility problems, and most significantly, the use of multiple, nonintegrated RCS, OMS, and main propulsion systems. Recovery and refurbishment of SRBs have resulted in expensive crash and salvage operations. Vehicle system designers are encouraged to be acutely aware of these cost drivers and to incorporate solutions (beginning with the design concepts) to avoid business as usual and costs as usual.

Scholz, Arthur L.↗

The 1990 high-speed civil transport studies

This summary report contains the results of the Douglas Aircraft Company system studies related to High-Speed Civil Transports (HSCT's). The tasks were performed under an 18-month extension of NASA Langley Research Center Contract NAS1-18378. The system studies were conducted to assess the emission impact of HSCT's at design Mach numbers ranging from 1.6 to 3.2. The tasks specifically addressed an HSCT market and economic assessment, development of supersonic route networks, and an atmospheric emissions scenario. The general results indicated: (1) market projections predict sufficient passenger traffic for the 2000 to 2025 time period to support a fleet of economically viable and environmentally compatible HSCT's; (2) the HSCT route structure to minimize supersonic overland traffic can be increased by innovative routing to avoid land masses; and (3) the atmospheric emission impact on ozone would be significantly lower for Mach 1.6 operations than for Mach 3.2 operations.

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Satellite Power Systems (SPS) Space Transportation Workshop Summary

Space transportation requirements are major elements in the technical and economic realization of the entire SPS concept. First, steps in enhancing the shuttle include the Titan based liquid boost module (LBM) and liquid propellant boosters (LPB) to replace the present solid rocket boosters (SRB). The next choice between new ballistic or winged boosters must still be made; as well as the choice between series (staged) and parallel operation. Entirely new vehicles of large size are required before the economic and environmental problems of the prototype, or even demonstration, SPS can be resolved. Social impacts such as noise, and atmospheric pollution, locally and in the ionosphere, must be fully addressed. Although rather advanced technology and well developed operational management is required to properly target the average cost of gross cargo payloads into LEO at 30 $ (1979)/kg for the construction of the initial SPS, the further goal for repetitive construction of 30 to 60 SPS at 15 $ (1979)/kg for all operational payloads require the use of very advanced, long lived vehicles with a sophisticated operational organization using off shore, equatorial launch sites.

Layton, J. P.↗

High-speed civil transport study. Summary

A system of study of the potential for a high speed commercial transport aircraft addressed technology, economic, and environmental constraints. Market projections indicated a need for fleets of transport with supersonic or greater cruise speeds by the years 2000 to 2005. The associated design requirements called for a vehicle to carry 250 to 300 passengers over a range of 5000 to 6000 nautical miles. The study was initially unconstrained in terms of vehicle characteristics, such as cruise speed, propulsion systems, fuels, or structural materials. Analyses led to a focus on the most promising vehicle concepts. These were concepts that used a kerosene type fuel and cruised at Mach numbers between 2.0 to 3.2. Further systems study identified the impact of environmental constraints (for community noise, sonic boom, and engine emissions) on economic attractiveness and technological needs. Results showed that current technology cannot produce a viable high speed civil transport. Significant advances are needed to take off gross weight and allow for both economic attractiveness and environment acceptability. Specific technological requirements were identified to meet these needs.

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Transonic transport study, summary

The effects of possible increases in cruise speed over present-day transport aircraft were investigated. Increased cruise speed is desirable not only because of a possible competitive market advantage, but also because of the resulting increase in aircraft productivity. Aircraft designed to cruise at Mach numbers greater than those of present-day transports but less than those which produce a sonic boom on the ground were studied. The purpose of the study was three-fold: (1) to compare, on an equal basis, the performance and economics of advanced commercial transport aircraft designed to cruise at Mach numbers 0.90, 0.98, and 1.15; (2) to determine the sensitive technical areas affecting the performance and economics of the aircraft; and (3) to assess the impact of advanced technology, particularly the supercritical wing and advanced composite materials on the performance and economics of the aircraft.

Williams, L. J.↗

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements. Volume 1: Executive summary

The objectives of the Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements studies were to provide sensitivity data on usage, economics, and technology associated with new space transportation systems. The study was structured to utilize data on the emerging launch vehicles, the latest mission scenarios, and Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) payload manifesting and schedules, to define a flexible, high performance, cost effective, evolutionary space transportation system for NASA. Initial activities were to support the MSFC effort in the preparation of inputs to the 90 Day Report to the National Space Council (NSC). With the results of this study establishing a point-of-departure for continuing the STV studies in 1990, additional options and mission architectures were defined. The continuing studies will update and expand the parametrics, assess new cargo and manned ETO vehicles, determine impacts on the redefined Phase 0 Space Station Freedom, and to develop a design that encompasses adequate configuration flexibility to ensure compliance with on-going NASA study recommendations with major system disconnects. In terms of general requirements, the objectives of the STV system and its mission profiles will address crew safety and mission success through a failure-tolerant and forgiving design approach. These objectives were addressed through the following: engine-out capability for all mission phases; built-in-test for vehicle health monitoring to allow testing of all critical functions such as, verification of lunar landing and ascent engines before initiating the landing sequence; critical subsystems will have multiple strings for redundancy plus adequate supplies of onboard spares for removal and replacement of failed items; crew radiation protection; and trajectories that optimize lunar and Mars performance and flyby abort capabilities.

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User data dissemination concepts for earth resources: Executive summary

The impact of the future capabilities of earth-resources data sensors (both satellite and airborne) and their requirements on the data dissemination network were investigated and optimum ways of configuring this network were determined. The scope of this study was limited to the continental U.S.A. (including Alaska) and to the 1985-1995 time period. Some of the conclusions and recommendations reached were: (1) Data from satellites in sun-synchronous polar orbits (700-920 km) will generate most of the earth-resources data in the specified time period. (2) Data from aircraft and shuttle sorties cannot be readily integrated in a data-dissemination network unless already preprocessed in a digitized form to a standard geometric coordinate system. (3) Data transmission between readout stations and central preprocessing facilities, and between processing facilities and user facilities are most economically performed by domestic communication satellites. (4) The effect of the following factors should be studied: cloud cover, expanded coverage, pricing strategies, multidiscipline missions.

Davies, R.↗

Current and Future Remote Sensing of Harmful Algal Blooms in the Chesapeake Bay to Support the Shellfish Industry

Harmful algal bloom (HAB) species in the Chesapeake Bay can negatively impact fish, shellfish, and human health via the production of toxins and the degradation of water quality. Due to the deleterious effects of HAB species on economically and environmentally important resources, such as oyster reef systems, Bay area resource managers are seeking ways to monitor HABs and water quality at large spatial and fine temporal scales. The use of satellite ocean color imagery has proven to be a beneficial tool for resource management in other locations around the world where high-biomass, nearly monospecific HABs occur. However, remotely monitoring HABs in the Chesapeake Bay is complicated by the presence of multiple, often co-occurring, species and optically-complex waters. Here we present a summary of common marine and estuarine HAB species found in the Chesapeake Bay, Alexandrium monilatum, Karlodinium veneficum, Margalefidinium polykrikoides, and Prorocentrum minimum, that have been detected from space using multispectral data products from the Ocean and Land Color Imager (OLCI) sensor on the Sentinel-3 satellites and identified based on historic phytoplankton data, in situ sampling, and ecological associations. We review how future hyperspectral instruments will improve discrimination of potentially harmful species from other phytoplankton communities and present a framework in which satellite data products could aid Chesapeake Bay resource managers with monitoring water quality and protecting shellfish resources.

Chesapeake Bay, satellite remote sensing, harmful ↗

Excursions in technology policy

This technical report presents a summary of three distinct projects: (1) Measuring economic benefits; (2) Evaluating the SBIR program; and (3) A model for evaluating changes in support for science and technology. the first project deals with the Technology Applications Group (TAG) at NASA Langley Research Center. The mission of TAG is to assist firms interested in commercializing technologies. TAG is a relatively new group as is the emphasis on technology commercialization for NASA. One problem faced by TAG and similar groups at other centers is measuring their effectiveness. The first project this summer, a paper entitled, 'Measuring the Economic Benefits of Technology Transfer from a National Laboratory: A Primer,' focused on this measurement problem. We found that the existing studies of the impact of technology transfer on the economy were conceptually flawed. The 'primer' outlines the appropriate theoretical framework for measuring the economic benefits of technology transfer. The second project discusses, one of the programs of TAG, the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. This program has led to over 400 contracts with Small Business since its inception in 1985. The program has never been evaluated. Crucial questions such as those about the extent of commercial successes from the contracts need to be answered. This summer we designed and implemented a performance evaluation survey instrument. The analysis of the data will take place in the fall. The discussion of the third project focuses on a model for evaluating changes in support for science and technology. At present several powerful forces are combining to change the environment for science and technology policy. The end of the cold war eliminated the rationale for federal support for many projects. The new- found Congressional conviction to balance the budget without tax increases combined with demographic changes which automatically increase spending for some politically popular programs will make it difficult to find funding for science and technology. Also, the two political parties have very different conceptions of the appropriate future for research and development spending. All these changes create the potential for serious, perhaps unintended, consequences for the economic future of the country. In a paper entitled, 'A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Impact of Changes in Federal Support for Science and Technology,' we introduce a model to evaluate the effects of changes in federal spending for science and technology. This paper both provides a way of organizing informed discussions and points out important research topics for science and technology policy.

Archibald, Robert B.↗

The Influence of Power Limitations on Closed Environment Life Support System Applications

The future of manned space exploration will be determined through a process which balances the innate need of humanity to explore its surroundings and the costs associated with accomplishing these goals. For NASA, this balance is derived from economics and budgetary constraints that hold it accountable for the expenditure of public funds. These budgetary realities demand a reduction in cost and expenditures of exploration and research activities. For missions venturing out to the edge of habitability, the development of cost effective life support approaches will have a significant influence on mission viability. Over the past several years, a variety of mission scenarios for potential Lunar and Mars missions have been developed. The most promising of these scenarios attempt to provide basic mission requirements at a minimum cost. As a result, these scenarios are extremely power limited. For Closed Environment Life Support System (CELSS) applications, these realities impose both limitations and direction to future research. This paper presents a summary of these mission scenarios and an evaluation of the impact which these power limitations will have on CELSS system design.

Flynn, Michael↗