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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2013

Accounting for Technological Change in Regulatory Impact Analyses: The Learning Curve Technique

Regulatory impact assessment is formally required by the U.S. and many other nations in order to help governments weigh the costs and benefits of proposed regulations, particularly as they compare to those of alternative actions and other government priorities. 1 One of the “best practices” of regulatory impact assessments, as established by the OECD, is to use estimates of costs that are grounded in economic theory. Economic theory indicates that changes in compliance costs should be expected over time as a result of factors related to technological innovation. But many U.S. regulatory impact assessments have traditionally employed a practice that is in conflict with this expectation: they take current estimates of the costs of complying with a proposed regulation and project that those costs will remain unchanged over the full time period that the regulation would be in effect.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Allocation Mechanisms in Rationed Markets

Economic theory has come to play an important role in power system operations through the design of wholesale markets that are central to their operation. Furthermore, transactive energy places economic theory as a cornerstone in its operational concept as it seeks to integrate the technical needs of the power system with the preferences of its participants. Traditionally the mechanism employed is the continuous double-auction but de-pending on the circumstances the power system find itself in, this mechanism may or may not be the most appropriate, i.e. a one-size fits all market institution cannot be recommended without regard for the features of the underlying trading environment. This paper seeks to explain the economic rationale that guides the choice of a market institution and takes recourse to a theoretical demonstration in the context of a rationed power system scenario where demand exceeds generation (due to any number of events such as outages, microgrid operation, etc) and electrical energy must be rationed to better understand which types of mechanisms are most appropriate.

transactive energy, power system economics, econom↗

DOE OSTI2014

A cognitive and economic decision theory for examining cyber defense strategies.

Cyber attacks pose a major threat to modern organizations. Little is known about the social aspects of decision making among organizations that face cyber threats, nor do we have empirically-grounded models of the dynamics of cooperative behavior among vulnerable organizations. The effectiveness of cyber defense can likely be enhanced if information and resources are shared among organizations that face similar threats. Three models were created to begin to understand the cognitive and social aspects of cyber cooperation. The first simulated a cooperative cyber security program between two organizations. The second focused on a cyber security training program in which participants interact (and potentially cooperate) to solve problems. The third built upon the first two models and simulates cooperation between organizations in an information-sharing program.

Bier, Asmeret Brooke↗

DOE OSTI2018

Towards a theory of economic value for modeling and simulation: incremental cost of parallel simulation (wip)

A useful perspective on the economic value of simulation in engineering comes from considering the role simulation plays in constructing a system. We propose a conceptual model that combines an embryonic concept of the value of an information bit with cost estimation tools used in software engineering. The model provides an economic justification for the common conception that models should be built to address specific questions rather than to comprehensively represent a referent system. Extending these ideas, we offer a model for the incremental value of parallel execution to explain why simulation applications that take advantage of sophisticated parallel discrete event simulation tools form a relatively narrow niche despite the ubiquity of parallel computing hardware. The proposed model enables us to bring value of information criteria into model development and to make predictions about the future of parallel simulation applications.

Nutaro, James J↗

DOE OSTI2017

Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Value with Effective Complexity

We present a new economic theory of value based on complexity theory. For simplicity, we call this theory ‘complexalism’ (a portmanteau of ‘complexity’ and ‘capitalism’). Complexalism is a framework that establishes valuations by quantifying the present and future complexities of objects and their surroundings. This framework reparameterises questions of economic value into more objectively addressable subcomponents. First, we motivate the importance of developing alternative frameworks for value. Next, we discuss a novel three-dimensional framework to analyse value and the use of effective complexity as a proxy metric of economic value. Finally, we propose explicit methods for quantifying complexity and simulating valuations. The resulting valuations may serve to benchmark prices and can be used in evaluating the market rules of engagement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Transactive Energy: Stabilizing Oscillations in Integrated Wholesale-Retail Energy Markets

Transactive energy is a control technique that uses market mechanisms to achieve desired control objectives. A number of studies have identified a well-known economic theory effect called a ``cobweb'' that can occur when the transactive control system is not properly designed. This work proposes a control framework to mitigate this effect by adding an extra control layer. This proposed control layer expresses the flexibility of load on the distribution side into the transmission system. By using FNCS, a co-simulation platform, new control framework is evaluated on a power system model composed of a single transmission system with the potential of thousands of flexible distribution systems. The co-simulation is able to replicate the cobweb effect and demonstrate that improper transactive control design can create oscillations at high penetrations of price-responsive loads. Furthermore, the proposed transactive control system is shown to be able to eliminate the cobweb effect while also effectively diminishing price and load spikes.

power distribution control, power distribution eco↗

DOE OSTI2018

Minimax theorems in fuzzy metric spaces

A minimax theorem is a theorem providing conditions which guarantee that the max–min inequality is also an equality. The first theorem in this sense is von Neumann’s minimax theorem, which was considered the starting point of game theory. Since then, several alternative generalizations of von Neumann’s original theorem have appeared in the literature. Variational inequality and minimax problems are of fundamental importance in modern non-linear analysis. They are widely applied in mechanics, differential equations, control theory, mathematical economics, game theory, and optimization. The purpose of this paper is first to establish a minimax theorem for mixed lower–upper semi-continuous functions in fuzzy metric spaces which extends the minimax theorems of many von Neumann types. As applications, we utilize this result to study the existence problems of solutions for abstract variational inequalities and quasi-variational inequalities in fuzzy metric spaces and to study the coincidence problems and saddle problems in fuzzy metric spaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

An empirical analysis of supply offers in the ERCOT operating reserves markets

Here, this paper seeks to improve theoretical and empirical understanding of supplier dynamics in wholesale markets for operating reserves, which have been understudied compared to energy markets. We begin by identifying several economic factors that unit owners may consider when submitting offers into operating reserves auctions in two-stage, co-optimized markets common across much of North America. Next, we analyze historical offer data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market to assess whether actual reserve market behavior aligns with expectations based on economic theory, as well as with commonly used assumptions in electricity market modeling efforts. We find that the aggregate supply of operating reserves in ERCOT varies meaningfully over time, becoming more expensive during summer afternoons, which is consistent with theoretical expectations but contradicts the typical modeling assumption of temporally invariant reserve offers. Analysis of offers made by individual units uncovers additional insights, such as the existence of large offer pattern differences by unit owner and the tendency of battery storage units to submit very low offer prices. We conclude by discussing how our findings can be integrated into electricity market modeling assumptions to improve alignment with observed operating reserve offer inputs and pricing outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

cabbi-bio/BECT-ABM

Yang, Pan↗

DOE OSTI2014

Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of leaf morphology in relation to leaf water status: A theory

The leaf economic traits such as leaf area, maximum carbon assimilation rate, and venation are all correlated and related to water availability. Furthermore, leaves are often broad and large in humid areas and narrower in arid/semiarid and hot and cold areas. We use optimization theory to explain these patterns. We have created a constrained optimization leaf model linking leaf shape to vein structure that is integrated into coupled transpiration and carbon assimilation processes. The model maximizes net leaf carbon gain (NPPleaf) over the loss of xylem water potential. Modeled relations between leaf traits are consistent with empirically observed patterns. As the results of the leaf shape-venation relation, our model further predicts that a broadleaf has overall higher NPPleaf compared to a narrowleaf. In addition, a broadleaf has a lower stomatal resistance compared to a narrowleaf under the same level of constraint. With the same leaf area, a broadleaf will have, on average, larger conduits and lower total leaf xylem resistance and thus be more efficient in water transportation but less resistant to cavitation. By linking venation structure to leaf shape and using water potential as the constraint, our model provides a physical explanation for the general pattern of the covariance of leaf traits through the safety-efficiency trade-off of leaf hydraulic design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Gas Separation through Bilayer Silica, the Thinnest Possible Silica Membrane

Membrane-based gas separation processes can address concerns in energy and environment, but for many applications the permeance and selectivity of bulk membranes is insufficient for economical use. Theory and experiment suggest that permeance and selectivity can be increased by using two-dimensional materials with subnanometer pores as membranes. Motivated by experiments showing selective permeation of H 2 /CO mixtures through amorphous silica bilayers, here we perform a theoretical study of gas separation through silica bilayers. Using density functional theory calculations, we obtain geometries of crystalline free-standing silica bilayers (comprised of six-membered rings), as well as the seven-, eight-, and nine-membered rings that are observed in glassy silica bilayers, which arise due to Stone–Wales defects and vacancies. We then compute the potential energy barriers for gas passage through these various pore types for He, Ne, Ar, Kr, H 2 , N 2 , CO, and CO 2 gases, and use the data to assess their capability for selective gas separation. Our calculations indicate that crystalline bilayer silica, which is less than a nanometer thick, can be a high-selectivity and high-permeance membrane material for 3 He/ 4 He, He/natural gas, and H 2 /CO separations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

From tensors to qubits

We discuss recent progress in Tensor Lattice Field Theory and economical, symmetry preserving, truncations suitable for quantum computations or simulations. We focus on spin and gauge models with continuous Abelian symmetries such as the Abelian Higgs model and emphasize noise-robust implementations of Gauss's law. We discuss recent progress concerning the comparison between field digitizations and character expansions, symmetry breaking in tensor language, wave-packet preparation and possible new implementations of Abelian models using Rydberg atoms.

Meurice, Yannick↗

DOE OSTI2019

Criticality Analysis of a Water Distribution System Considering Both Economic Consequences and Hydraulic Loss Using Modern Portfolio Theory

This study introduces an approach using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to consider hydraulic resilience and economic consequence resilience of a water distribution system (WDS) to identify critical assets. ECLIPS (Economic Consequence Linked to Interruption in Providing Service), a way to represent loss of water provision as economic loss, is used to measure economic consequence following a reduction of WDS functionality. The approach is demonstrated using a hypothetical WDS and tested for pipe breakage and replacement scenarios using EPANET hydraulic simulations. First, the correlation between hydraulic resilience and economic consequence resilience was investigated to assess differences between two resilience measures for identifying pipe’s criticality for replacement. The results confirmed the two resilience measures exhibited differing responses (covariance = 0.2), suggesting that use of both would provide complementary insight. Results of the MPT analysis identified the benefits of balancing hydraulic and economic consequence resilience measures to yield lower risk. This study provides a practical approach to incorporate economic consequence into planning, design, and research applications identifying critical WDS assets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Economic aspects of thermal treatment of solid waste in a sustainable WM system

Highlights: • Provides a comprehensive review of the applied economic literature dedicated to WtE. • Offers a detailed discussion of the main assumptions that characterize alternative positions. • Highlights the most robust achievements obtained by the applied economic research in this field. • Compares economic and non-economic valuation techniques. - Abstract: This paper offers a systematic review of the literature of the last 15 years, which applies economic analysis and theories to the issue of combustion of solid waste. Waste incineration has attracted the interest of economists in the first place concerning the comparative assessment of waste management options, with particular reference to external costs and benefits. A second important field of applied economic research concerns the market failures associated with the provision of thermal treatment of waste, that justify some deviation from the standard competitive market model. Our analysis discusses the most robust achievements and the more controversial areas. All in all, the economic perspective seems to confirm the desirability of assigning a prominent role to thermal treatments in an integrated waste management strategy. Probably the most interesting original contribution it has to offer concerns the refusal of categorical assumptions and too rigid priority ladders, emphasizing instead the need to consider site-specific circumstances that may favor one or another solution.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Adjoint-Based Constant-Mass Partial Derivatives

It is well known that the adjoint equation in transport theory provides an economical means of computing derivatives of a system response to system parameters. It is also well known, though not often remarked on, that adjoint-based partial derivatives with respect to mass density are constant-volume derivatives. Likewise, adjoint-based partial derivatives with respect to dimensions (i.e., internal interface locations and the outer system boundary) are constant-density derivatives. In this paper, we derive a formula for the constant-mass partial derivative of a response with respect to internal interface locations and the outer system boundary. The formula uses the partial derivatives for density and dimensions, which may be adjoint-based. This paper includes numerical comparisons for a two-dimensional (r-z) cylinder that also demonstrate the correctness of the regular adjoint-based derivatives for surface locations. Adjoint-based derivatives for the neutron problems were computed using the new SENSMG code at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗