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Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions
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Integrated charging infrastructure planning and charging scheduling for battery electric bus systems
We report studies on the electric bus system planning problem have typically focused exclusively on either the deployment of charging infrastructure or the scheduling of charging events; few have examined the impact of charging facility deployment on charging activities. Considering the interdependence of system design and operational strategies, this study proposes a two-phase optimization framework for charging infrastructure planning and charging scheduling for battery electric bus systems. An integrated optimization model is first developed to simultaneously optimize charger deployment, on-board battery capacity, and charging schedules. A charging scheduling model is further proposed and a rolling horizon approach is utilized in the second phase to optimize the real-time charging scheduling of electric buses. Compared to existing electric bus system planning methods, the proposed integrated model can reduce the total system cost by 19.5%. In addition, compared to uncontrolled charging, the proposed rolling horizon-based charging strategy can reduce the total charging cost by 68.3%.
A Scalable Approach to Minimize Charging Costs for Electric Bus Fleets
Incorporating battery electric buses into bus fleets faces three primary challenges: a BEB’s extended refuel time, the cost of charging, both by the consumer and the power provider, and large compute demands for planning methods. When BEBs charge, the additional demands on the grid may exceed hardware limitations, so power providers divide a consumer’s energy needs into separate meters even though doing so is expensive for both power providers and consumers. Prior work has developed a number of strategies for computing charge schedules for bus fleets; however, prior work has not worked to reduce costs by aggregating meters. Additionally, because many works use mixed integer linear programs, their compute needs make planning for commercial-sized bus fleets intractable. This work presents a multi-program approach to computing charge plans for electric bus fleets. The proposed method solves a series of subproblems where the solution to the charge problem becomes more refined with each problem, moving closer to the optimal schedule. The results demonstrate how runtimes are reduced by using intermediate subproblems to refine the bus charge solution so that the proposed method can be applied to large bus fleets of 100+ buses. Not only will we demonstrate that runtimes scale linearly with the number of buses but we will also show how the proposed method scales to large bus fleets of over 100 buses while managing the monthly cost of energy.
Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions
Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.
Foothill Transit Battery Electric Bus Evaluation (Final Report)
This report summarizes results of a battery electric bus (BEB) evaluation at Foothill Transit, located in Southern California. Foothill Transit began a demonstration of three Proterra BEBs in October 2010 to evaluate the battery technology and determine if the BEBs could meet Foothill Transit’s service requirements. Since that pilot project, the agency has added 31 BEBs to its fleet. Foothill Transit is collaborating with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The focus of the evaluation is to compare performance and cost of the BEBs to that of conventional technology in similar service and track progress over time. This report summarizes the results of the BEB and baseline fleets through December 2020.
A Decision Support Framework for Grid-Aware Electric Bus Charge Scheduling
While there are many advantages to electric public transit vehicles, they also pose new challenges for fleet operators. One key challenge is defining a charge scheduling policy that minimizes operating costs and power grid disruptions while maintaining schedule adherence. An uncoordinated policy could result in some buses running out of charge before completing their trip, while a grid agnostic policy might incur higher energy costs or cause an adverse impact on the grid’s distribution system. We present a grid aware decision-theoretic framework for electric bus charge scheduling that accounts for energy price, grid load, and bus status. The framework connects environmental models for traffic (SUMO) and the electric grid (GridLAB-D) to a planner, which evaluates bus charging decisions with regard to their long-term effect on grid reliability and cost. The framework has been evaluated on a simulation of Richland, WA’s bus and grid network, and compared to greedy methods.
Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility
It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.
Foothill Transit Battery Electric Bus Progress Report (Jul-Dec 2019)
This report summarizes results of a battery electric bus (BEB) evaluation at Foothill Transit, located in the San Gabriel Valley area of Los Angeles. Foothill Transit is collaborating with the California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The focus of this evaluation is to compare the performance and the operating costs of the BEBs to that of conventional technology buses and to track progress over time. Previous reports documented results from April 2014 through June 2019. This report extends the data analysis through December 2019. The data period focus of this report is July 2019–December 2019. NREL plans to publish progress reports on the Foothill Transit fleet every 6 months through 2020.
Foothill Transit Agency Battery Electric Bus Progress Report. Data Period Focus: Jan. 2020 through June 2020
This report summarizes results of a battery electric bus (BEB) evaluation at Foothill Transit, located in the San Gabriel Valley area of Los Angeles. Foothill Transit is collaborating with the California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The focus of this evaluation is to compare the performance and the operating costs of the BEBs to that of conventional technology buses and to track progress over time. Previous reports documented results from April 2014 through December 2019. This report extends the data analysis through June 2020. The data period focus of this report is January 2020-June 2020. NREL plans to publish progress reports on the Foothill Transit fleet every 6 months through 2020.
Joint optimization of electric bus charging infrastructure, vehicle scheduling, and charging management
High upfront costs of vehicles and charging infrastructure as well as the lack of knowledge related to infrastructure planning and electric bus system operation are major obstacles to the implementation of battery electric buses (BEBs). To tackle the obstacles and promote BEB adoption, a comprehensive optimization framework was developed to address the combined charging infrastructure planning, vehicle scheduling, and charging management problem for BEB systems, with the goal to minimize the total cost of ownership. The problem was formulated as a mixed-integer non-linear problem. A genetic algorithm-based approach was then proposed to solve the problem. Last, three alternative scenarios based on a sub-transit network in Salt Lake City, Utah, were analyzed and compared with the optimal scenario results in the numerical experiments. Our comparison results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and solution algorithm in determining a cost-efficient planning strategy for BEB systems.
Duluth Transit Authority Battery-Electric Bus Evaluation
Duluth Transit Authority (DTA) collaborated with the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate a fleet of seven battery-electric buses (BEBs) in revenue service in Duluth, Minnesota. The focus of the evaluation was to compare performance and cost of the BEBs to that of conventional technology buses in similar service and track progress over time. DTA enlisted the help of the Center for Transportation and the Environment (CTE) to manage the project and provide technical services with the BEB fleet and infrastructure. This report summarizes the results of the BEB evaluation and contains a combination of analyses performed by NREL and by CTE during the overall data collection period of December 2018 through February 2022.
Optimal charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging battery electric bus system
Herein we discuss how battery electric buses (BEBs) are rapidly being embraced by public transit agencies because of their environmental and economic benefits. To address the problems of limited driving range and time-consuming charging for BEBs, manufacturers have developed rapid on-route charging technology that utilizes typical layovers at terminals to charge buses in operation using high power. With on-route fast-charging, BEBs are as capable as their diesel counterparts in terms of range and operating time. However, on-route fast-charging makes it more challenging to schedule and manage charging events for a BEB system. First, on-route fast-charging may lead to high electricity power demand charges. Second, it may increase electricity energy charges because of charging that occurs during on-peak hours. Without careful charging scheduling and management, on-route fast-charging may significantly increase fuel costs and reduce the economic attractiveness of BEBs. The present study proposes a network modeling framework to optimize the charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging BEB system, effectively minimizing total charging costs. The charging schedule determines when to charge a BEB, while the charging management strategically controls the actual charging power. Charging costs include both electricity demand charges and energy charges. The charging scheduling and management problem is first formulated as a nonlinear nonconvex program with time-continuous variables. A discretizing method and a linear reformulation technique are then adopted to reformulate the model as a linear program, which can be easily solved using off-the-shelf solvers, even for large-scale problems. Finally, the model is demonstrated with extensive numerical studies based on two real-world bus networks. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively determine the optimal charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging BEB system, which carries the potential for use in large-scale real-world bus networks.
Time-Dependent Electric Bus and Charging Station Deployment Problem
Battery electric buses (BEBs) have gained popularity due to their emission-free and energy-efficient features. Many transit authorities worldwide have set goals to gradually replace their bus fleets with BEBs. Considering the potential decline in BEB battery and charger prices, this study proposes a time-dependent bus fleet transition model to determine the optimal bus fleet transition plan, which includes selecting the bus lines to be electrified, determining the timing and type of BEBs to be purchased, and deploying on-route fast chargers and depot chargers. The model is a bi-objective integer linear program that considers the trade-off between electrified transit mileages and bus electrification costs. A normalized normal constraint method is applied to solve the bi-objective optimization model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested using a real-world bus network. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to better understand the impact of different parameter values on the optimal solutions. Our proposed model can provide transit authorities with a powerful tool to make informed decisions about their BEB fleet replacement plans.
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Status Report 2025
This report highlights recent changes in the FCEB market, status updates for deployments, and a detailed performance evaluation of a large fleet of FCEBs operated by Foothill Transit in California during the period from June 2023 to December 2024.
Long Beach Transit Battery Electric Bus Evaluation (Final Report)
Beginning in March 2017, Long Beach Transit began operating a fleet of 10 battery electric buses (BEBs) in its service area in Southern California. These electric buses, produced by BYD, are 40-foot buses that are typically charged overnight. Long Beach Transit is collaborating with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. NREL evaluated the first year of Long Beach Transit’s BEB fleet under Federal Transit Administration funding and published a report covering results from January 2018 through December 2018. CARB provided funding to cover a second year of evaluation. This report provides an update to the previous reports and is focused on the second year of operation from January 2019 through December 2019. Data are provided on a selection of compressed natural gas (CNG) buses as a baseline comparison.
Orange County Transportation Authority Fuel Cell Electric Bus Progress Report (Feb-Jul 2020) [Slides]
This report presents early results from a deployment of fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) operated by Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) in Southern California. The ten FCEBs, produced by New Flyer, feature an electric drive propulsion system powered by a Ballard fuel cell system. The project team is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The goal of this evaluation is to compare the FCEB performance to that of conventional technology and to track progress over time toward meeting the technical targets set by DOE and the Department of Transportation (DOT). The FCEBs were delivered beginning in late-2019, and were placed in service on February 9, 2020. The data period covers February 2020 through July 2020. NREL collects data on ten 2016 model year compressed natural gas (CNG) buses as a baseline comparison at OCTA.
SunLine Transit Agency Fuel Cell Electric Bus Progress Report (Data Period Focus Jan-Jun 2020) [Slides]
This report presents early results from a deployment of fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) operated by SunLine Transit Agency in the Coachella Valley area of California. The five FCEBs, produced by New Flyer, feature an electric drive propulsion system powered by a Ballard fuel cell system. The project team is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The goal of this evaluation is to compare the FCEB performance to that of conventional technology and to track progress over time toward meeting the technical targets set by DOE and the Department of Transportation (DOT). The FCEBs were delivered beginning in mid-2019. The data period covers January 2020 through July 2020. NREL collects data on five 2019 model year compressed natural gas (CNG) buses as a baseline comparison at SunLine. These new CNG buses were phased into service beginning in April 2020.