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Elephant range and population, strontium isotopes, and genetics combine to give local-scale specificity to ivory hotspot tracking

We use Sr isotopes to increase the precision of DNA-based origin estimates of wildlife products. Population information is used to develop Sr isotope Elephant Polygons that are overlaid onto the region of origin identified by DNA assignment to determine the sources of seized ivory samples. Our approach is cognizant of isotope mixing due to isotope turnover within animals and also of the large home range of elephants or other mobile species. Genetic information from 3 different law enforcement ivory seizures suggests a region of origin confined to Kenya and Tanzania in eastern Africa. We determine characteristic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios for each of 25 different Elephant Polygons within this region using analyses of more the 600 known-origin reference samples. Using both the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of the seized ivory samples and elephant population estimates from individual Elephant Polygons we find that at least 75 % of the samples likely came from a single Elephant Polygon which includes the Tsavo National Parks in Kenya and the Mkomazi National Park in Tanzania. A few samples may have come from other regions, most likely from Tanzania. This study illustrates the value of combining genetics, isotope geochemistry, and population surveys in wildlife forensics studies.

Africa↗

Allometric Trophic Networks From Individuals to Socio-Ecosystems: Consumer–Resource Theory of the Ecological Elephant in the Room

A well-known parable is that of the blind men studying an elephant each of which assert the elephant is the part they first hold in their hands, e.g., “rope!” says the tail holder while the leg holder asserts “tree!” The various subdisciplines of ecology appear similar in that we each engage in our enthusiastic but at least somewhat myopic study with remarkably limited agreement or even discussion about the overall system which we all study. Allometric trophic network (ATN) theory offers a path out of this dilemma by integrating across scales, taxa, habitats and organizational levels from physiology to ecosystems based on consumer-resource interactions among co-existing organisms. The network architecture and the metabolic and behavioral processes that determine the structure and dynamics of these interactions form the first principles of ATN theory, which in turn provides a synthetic overview and powerfully predictive framework for ecology from organisms to ecosystems. Beyond ecology, ATN theory also synthesizes eco-evolutionary and socio-ecological research still largely based on consumer-resource mechanisms but respectively integrated with different processes including natural selection and market mechanisms. This paper briefly describes foundations, advances, and future directions of ATN theory including predicting an ecosystem’s phenotype from its community’s genotype in order to accelerate more predictive and unified understanding of the complex systems studied by ecologists and other environmental scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shape-shifting Elephants: Multi-modal Transport for Integrated Research Infrastructure

Data Acquisition (DAQ) workloads form an important class of scientific network traffic that by its nature (1) flows across different research infrastructure, including remote instruments and supercomputer clusters, (2) has ever-increasing throughput demands, and (3) has ever-increasing integration demands---for example, observations at one instrument could trigger a reconfiguration of another instrument. Today's DAQ transfers rely on UDP and (heavily tuned) TCP, but this is driven by convenience rather than suitability. The mismatch between Internet transport protocols and scientific workloads becomes more stark with the steady increase in link capacities, data generation, and integration across research infrastructure.This position paper argues the importance of developing specialized transport protocols for DAQ workloads. It proposes a new transport feature for this kind of elephant flow: multi-modality involves the network actively configuring the transport protocol to change how DAQ flows are processed across different underlying networks that connect scientific research infrastructure. Multi-modality is a layering violation that is proposed as a pragmatic technique for DAQ transport protocol design. It takes advantage of programmable network hardware that is increasingly being deployed in scientific research infrastructure. The paper presents an initial evaluation through a pilot study that includes a Tofino2 switch and Alveo FPGA cards, and using data from a particle detector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Systems and methods for fast detection of elephant flows in network traffic

In a system for efficiently detecting large/elephant flows in a network, the rate at which the received packets are sampled is adjusted according to a top flow detection likelihood computed for a cache of flows identified in the arriving network traffic. After observing packets sampled from the network, Dirichlet-Categorical inference is employed to calculate a posterior distribution that captures uncertainty about the sizes of each flow, yielding a top flow detection likelihood. The posterior distribution is used to find the most likely subset of elephant flows. The technique rapidly converges to the optimal sampling rate at a speed O(1/n), where n is the number of packet samples received, and the only hyperparameter required is the targeted detection likelihood.

Gudibanda, Aditya↗

Elephants Sharing the Highway: Studying TCP Fairness in Large Transfers over High Throughput Links

Escalating bandwidth demand strains high-performance data networks, posing potential performance risks. TCP congestion control algorithms enhance reliability and optimize bandwidth usage. Network performance is influenced by factors such as AQM algorithms and router buffer size. In the context of constrained network resources, understanding how TCP flows share networks and the resulting performance impact is essential. This paper introduces insights into TCP fairness and performance involving a comparison of TCP CUBIC, Reno, Hamilton, and BBR versions 1 and 2 across real-world networks supporting high bandwidths of up to 25 Gbps. The research explores TCP behaviors with AQM algorithms like FIFO, FQ_CODEL, and RED, alongside diverse buffer sizes. Notably, findings reveal that manipulating buffers and queuing methods yields contrasting outcomes based on bandwidth. BBRv2 emerges as a superior fair algorithm, pivotal for swift transfers, particularly in scientific data scenarios. These results provide crucial guidance for future network design, ensuring equitable performance optimization.

Kiran, Mariam↗

Characterizing post-fire delayed tree mortality with remote sensing: sizing up the elephant in the room

Abstract Background Despite recent advances in understanding the drivers of tree-level delayed mortality, we lack a method for mapping delayed mortality at landscape and regional scales. Consequently, the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on post-fire landscape patterns of burn severity are unknown. We introduce a remote sensing approach for mapping delayed mortality based on post-fire decline in the normalized burn ratio (NBR). NBR decline is defined as the change in NBR between the first post-fire measurement and the minimum NBR value up to 5 years post-fire for each pixel. We validate the method with high-resolution aerial photography from six wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, and then compare the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on landscape patterns of burn severity among fires and forest types. Results NBR decline was significantly correlated with post-fire canopy mortality (r 2 = 0.50) and predicted the presence of delayed mortality with 83% accuracy based on a threshold of 105 NBR decline. Plots with NBR decline greater than 105 were 23 times more likely to experience delayed mortality than those below the threshold (p < 0.001). Delayed mortality occurred across 6–38% of fire perimeters not affected by stand-replacing fire, generally affecting more areas in cold (22–41%) and wet (30%) forest types than in dry (1.7–19%) types. The total area initially mapped as unburned/very low-severity declined an average of 38.1% and generally persisted in smaller, more fragmented patches when considering delayed mortality. The total area initially mapped as high-severity increased an average of 16.2% and shifted towards larger, more contiguous patches. Conclusions Differences between 1- and 5-year post-fire burn severity maps depict dynamic post-fire mosaics resulting from delayed mortality, with variability among fires reflecting a range of potential drivers. We demonstrate that tree-level delayed mortality scales up to alter higher-level landscape patterns of burn severity with important implications for forest resilience and a range of fire-driven ecological outcomes. Our method can complement existing tree-level studies on drivers of delayed mortality, refine mapping of fire refugia, inform estimates of habitat and carbon losses, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of landscape and regional scale fire effects and trends.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Seismic savanna: machine learning for classifying wildlife and behaviours using ground‐based vibration field recordings

Abstract We develop a machine learning approach to detect and discriminate elephants from other species, and to recognise important behaviours such as running and rumbling, based only on seismic data generated by the animals. We demonstrate our approach using data acquired in the Kenyan savanna, consisting of 8000 h seismic recordings and 250 k camera trap pictures. Our classifiers, different convolutional neural networks trained on seismograms and spectrograms, achieved 80%–90% balanced accuracy in detecting elephants up to 100 m away, and over 90% balanced accuracy in recognising running and rumbling behaviours from the seismic data. We release the dataset used in this study: SeisSavanna represents a unique collection of seismic signals with the associated wildlife species and behaviour. Our results suggest that seismic data offer substantial benefits for monitoring wildlife, and we propose to further develop our methods using dense arrays that could result in a seismic shift for wildlife monitoring.

Szenicer, Alexandre↗

Identification of ancestral gnathostome Gli3 enhancers with activity in mammals

Abnormal expression of the transcriptional regulator and hedgehog (Hh) signaling pathway effector Gli3 is known to trigger congenital disease, most frequently affecting the central nervous system (CNS) and the limbs. Accurate delineation of the genomic cis-regulatory landscape controlling Gli3 transcription during embryonic development is critical for the interpretation of noncoding variants associated with congenital defects. Here, we employed a comparative genomic analysis on fish species with a slow rate of molecular evolution to identify seven previously unknown conserved noncoding elements (CNEs) in Gli3 intronic intervals (CNE15–21). Transgenic assays in zebrafish revealed that most of these elements drive activities in Gli3 expressing tissues, predominantly the fins, CNS, and the heart. Intersection of these CNEs with human disease associated SNPs identified CNE15 as a putative mammalian craniofacial enhancer, with conserved activity in vertebrates and potentially affected by mutation associated with human craniofacial morphology. Finally, comparative functional dissection of an appendage-specific CNE conserved in slowly evolving fish (elephant shark), but not in teleost (CNE14/hs1586) indicates co-option of limb specificity from other tissues prior to the divergence of amniotes and lobe-finned fish. In conclusion, these results uncover a novel subset of intronic Gli3 enhancers that arose in the common ancestor of gnathostomes and whose sequence components were likely gradually modified in other species during the process of evolutionary diversification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Does provable absence of barren plateaus imply classical simulability?

A large amount of effort has recently been put into understanding the barren plateau phenomenon. In this perspective article, we face the increasingly loud elephant in the room and ask a question that has been hinted at by many but not explicitly addressed: Can the structure that allows one to avoid barren plateaus also be leveraged to efficiently simulate the loss classically? We collect evidence-on a case-by-case basis-that many commonly used models whose loss landscapes avoid barren plateaus can also admit classical simulation, provided that one can collect some classical data from quantum devices during an initial data acquisition phase. This follows from the observation that barren plateaus result from a curse of dimensionality, and that current approaches for solving them end up encoding the problem into some small, classically simulable, subspaces. Thus, while stressing that quantum computers can be essential for collecting data, our analysis sheds doubt on the information processing capabilities of many parametrized quantum circuits with provably barren plateau-free landscapes. We end by discussing the (many) caveats in our arguments including the limitations of average case arguments, the role of smart initializations, models that fall outside our assumptions, the potential for provably superpolynomial advantages and the possibility that, once larger devices become available, parametrized quantum circuits could heuristically outperform our analytic expectations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantitative Predictive Theories through Integrating Quantum, Statistical, Equilibrium, and Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

Today's thermodynamics is largely based on the combined law for equilibrium systems and statistical mechanics derived by Gibbs in 1873 and 1901, respectively, while irreversible thermodynamics for nonequilibrium systems resides essentially on the Onsager Theorem as a separate branch of thermodynamics developed in 1930s. Between them, quantum mechanics was invented and was quantitatively solved in terms of density functional theory (DFT) in 1960s. Furthermore, these three scientific domains operate based on different principles and are very much separated from each other. In analogy to the parable of the blind men and the elephant articulated by Perdew, they individually represent different portions of a complex system and thus are incomplete by themselves alone, resulting in the lack of quantitative agreement between their predictions and experimental observations. Over the last two decades, the author's group has developed a multiscale entropy approach (recently termed as zentropy theory) that integrates DFT-based quantum mechanics and Gibbs statistical mechanics and is capable of accurately predicting entropy and free energy of complex systems. Furthermore, in combination with the combined law for nonequilibrium systems developed by Hillert, the author developed the theory of cross phenomena beyond the phenomenological Onsager Theorem. The zentropy theory and theory of cross phenomena jointly provide quantitative predictive theories for systems from electronic to any observable scales as reviewed in the present work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Redshift space power spectrum beyond Einstein-de Sitter kernels

Abstract We develop a framework to compute the redshift space power spectrum (PS), with kernels beyond Einstein-de Sitter (EdS), that can be applied to a wide variety of generalized cosmologies. We build upon a formalism that was recently employed for standard cosmology in Chen, Vlah & White (2020), and utilize an expansion of the density-weighted velocity moment generating function that explicitly separates the magnitude of the k-modes and their angle to the line-of-sight direction dependencies. We compute the PS for matter and biased tracers to 1-loop Perturbation Theory (PT) and show that the expansion has a correct infrared and ultraviolet behavior, free of unwanted divergences. We also add Effective Field Theory (EFT) counterterms, necessary to account for small-scale contributions to PT, and employ an IR-resummation prescription to properly model the smearing of the BAO due to large scale bulk flows within Standard-PT. To demonstrate the applicability of our formalism, we apply it on the ΛCDM and the Hu-Sawicki f(R) models, and compare our numerical results against the elephant suite of N-body simulations, finding very good agreement up to k = 0.27 Mpc -1 h at z = 0.5 for the first three non-vanishing Legendre multipoles of the PS. To our knowledge, the model presented in this work is the most accurate theoretical EFT-PT for modified gravity to date, being the only one that accounts for beyond linear local biasing in redshift-space. Hence, we argue our RSD modeling is a promising tool to construct theoretical templates in order to test deviations from ΛCDM using real data obtained from the next stage of cosmological surveys such as DESI and LSST.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Adaptive Protection of Scientific Backbone Networks Using Machine Learning

In this article, we propose a new protection scheme for backbone networks to guarantee high service availability. The presented scheme does not require any reconfiguration immediately after the failure (i.e., it is proactive). At the same time, it does not require any reserved backup network resources either. To achieve these seemingly contradictory goals, we utilize the recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) to implement a network intelligence that periodically re-allocates the unused capacity as protection bandwidth to meet the service availability requirements of each connection. Our goal is achieved by two components (1) predicting the traffic for the next period on each link, and (2) intelligently selecting the best fit dedicated protection scheme for the next period depending on the estimated unused (spare) bandwidth and the previous service availability violations. Note that re-allocating protection bandwidth affects neither the operational connections nor the current best practice of operators to over-provision network bandwidth to support elephant flows. Finally, we provide a case study on the real traffic from Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a high-speed, international scientific backbone network. The key benefit of our framework is that adaptively utilizing the over-provisioned bandwidth for spare capacity is sufficient to improve the availability from three-nines to five-nines (in ESnet for the 30 examined connections). The drawback is negligible bandwidth limitations; the user perceives a minor and very temporal bandwidth limitation in less than 0.1% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Functional Significance of Bacterial Predators

The word “predator” may conjure images of leopards killing and eating impala on the African savannah or of great white sharks attacking elephant seals off the coast of California. But microorganisms are also predators, including bacteria that kill and eat other bacteria.

18O-H2O↗

Indira: intent-based networking and rendering for networks (Indira) v1

Intelligent Network Deployment Intent Renderer Application an interactive network assistant that will help us configure a data path between two scientific end-point groups (EPGs) to optimize the transfer of elephant data flows. This tool is able to talk to scientists gather network requirements and then convert to network programming code and automate the end-to-end provisioning.

Pouyoul, Eric↗

Turbulence in Core-collapse Supernovae

It is understood in a general sense that turbulent fluid motion below the shock front in a core-collapse supernova stiffens the effective equation of state of the fluid and aids in the revival of the explosion. However, when one wishes to be precise and quantify the amount of turbulence in a supernova simulation, one immediately encounters the problem that turbulence is difficult to define and measure. Using the 3D magnetohydrodynamic code ELEPHANT, we study how different definitions of turbulence change one’s conclusions about the amount of turbulence in a supernova and the extent to which it helps the explosion. We find that, while all the definitions of turbulence we use lead to a qualitatively similar growth pattern over time of the turbulent kinetic energy in the gain region, the total amount of turbulent kinetic energy, and especially the ratios of turbulent to total kinetic energy, distinguish them. Some of the definitions appear to indicate turbulence is a necessary contributor to the explosion, and others indicate it is not. The different definitions also produce turbulence maps with different correlations with maps of the enstrophy, a quantity widely regarded as also indicating the presence of turbulence. We also compute the turbulent adiabatic index and observe that, in regions of low enstrophy, this quantity is sensitive to the definition used. As a consequence, the effective adiabatic index depends upon the method used to measure the turbulence, and thus it alters one’s conclusions regarding the impact of turbulence within the supernova.

computational astronomy↗

Pushing Green: Leveraging Home Energy Score to Promote Deep-Energy Retrofits in Portland, Oregon

In the United States, 39% of total energy is consumed by the building sector, 20% of which is attributed to residential buildings. Older homes, built before 1992 when the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program was established, represent approximately 68% of residential building stock in the country and often have significant air leakage, inadequate insulation and inefficient heating & cooling systems. These older homes have long been the elephant in the room: how can programs effectively increase efficiency in all of the homes in need? Developed by DOE, the Home Energy Score was established to provide homeowners, buyers, and renters a comparable score measuring a home's energy use. Much like the MPG rating of automobiles, the Home Energy Score provides an overview of a residential building’s energy efficiency. In 2016, the City of Portland passed an ordinance requiring all residential properties to receive a Home Energy Score before being listed for sale, a mandate that was implemented January 1, 2018. Since 2018, more than 22,000 homes throughout the Portland Metro area have received Home Energy Scores (amounting to over 10% of Portland's single-family homes). This paper explores the sample of Home Energy Scores throughout Portland, including at the neighborhood level, identifies trends in efficiency measures, describes how the data has been used to date and proposes ways program administrators can use the Home Energy Score to increase the impact of energy efficiency programs on a city-scale.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗