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The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.
A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.
The exploitation of natural gas resources to supply energy demands has resulted in the need to engineer pipelines and plants capable of handling extremely high pressures and throughputs. Consequently, more attention has been directed to evaluating the consequences of releases of material whether accidental or deliberate in nature. An important aspect of assessing the consequences of a release is an understanding of how gas disperses in the atmosphere over a wide range of release and atmospheric conditions. The most cost effective way of providing such information is through the development and use of reliable theoretical prediction methods. The need for some form of remote sensing device was identified. The various possibilities studied led to the conclusion that LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) offered the most suitable method. The system designed and built is described, and its recent use in monitoring operational ventings from a high pressure transmission system is discussed.
Two projections of future hydrogen demand, based on the Ford technical fix and the Westinghouse nuclear electric economy energy supply and demand scenarios, are analyzed. It is suggested that hydrogen use will increase during the remainder of this century by at least a factor of five, and perhaps by a factor of twenty. Primary energy sources for producing hydrogen are discussed in terms of the transition from low to high demand for hydrogen.
Anticipated U.S. demands for non-renewable energy and mineral resources exceed domestic supplies essential for economic growth. For the long term changes necessary in the energy supply and demand gap, new technologies and substitute materials as well as legislation and socio-economic strategies are elaborated.
The use of hydrogen as a synthetic fuel is considered. Processes for the production of hydrogen are described along with the present and future industrial uses of hydrogen as a fuel and as a chemical feedstock. Novel and unconventional hydrogen-production techniques are evaluated, with emphasis placed on thermochemical and electrolytic processes. Potential uses for hydrogen as a fuel in industrial and residential applications are identified and reviewed in the context of anticipated U.S. energy supplies and demands. A detailed plan for the period from 1975 to 1980 prepared for research on and development of hydrogen as an energy carrier is included.
Specular reflectors have been used successfully with flat-plate collectors to achieve exceptionally high operating temperatures and high delivered energy per unit collector area. Optimal orientation of collectors and reflectors can result in even higher performance with an improved relationship between energy demand and supply. This paper reports on a study providing first order optimization of collector-reflector arrays in which single- and multiple-faceted reflectors in fixed or singly adjustable configurations provide delivered energy maxima in either summer or winter.
Climate researchers have examined many impacts of climate change on energy supply and demand under various scenarios. However, the effect of changing particulate deposition onto solar panel surfaces on solar power production efficiency (i.e., soiling) has not been studied. We therefore characterize probabilistic outcomes across multiple climate models and scenarios. We find large current regional losses (up to 40% without manual cleaning, up to 20% with monthly cleaning and rain removal) in generation that grow slightly under a high-emission scenario, largely due to regional increases in windblown dust. In contrast, under a low-emissions scenario, potential production increases significantly (2–8% interquartile range with only rain removal) due to reduced soiling, especially in regions of Asia and Africa where anthropogenic aerosols are major contributors to soiling. Projected changes vary widely across models in many dusty areas outside of the Sahara and Arabia. Differences can also be large in regions dominated by anthropogenic aerosols, such as Nigeria, eastern China, and northern India, where the full range across modeled potential power production changes extends from −1 to +11% for the end of the century (without manual cleaning), underscoring the need to consider multiple climate models. With large increases in projected solar power deployment, the relatively small potential production increases reported here could nevertheless represent a large dividend in additional energy production. Hence, reductions in air pollution attributable to decarbonization could provide positive feedback under which a greater deployment of solar power (or other renewables) increases the production of solar power, facilitating the transition to renewable energy.
Station Power and Energy Evaluation Determiner (SPEED) is a Java application program for analyzing the supply and demand aspects of the electrical power system of the International Space Station (ISS). SPEED can be executed on any computer that supports version 1.4 or a subsequent version of the Java Runtime Environment. SPEED includes an analysis module, denoted the Simplified Battery Solar Array Model, which is a simplified engineering model of the ISS primary power system. This simplified model makes it possible to perform analyses quickly. SPEED also includes a user-friendly graphical-interface module, an input file system, a parameter-configuration module, an analysis-configuration-management subsystem, and an output subsystem. SPEED responds to input information on trajectory, shadowing, attitude, and pointing in either a state-of-charge mode or a power-availability mode. In the state-of-charge mode, SPEED calculates battery state-of-charge profiles, given a time-varying power-load profile. In the power-availability mode, SPEED determines the time-varying total available solar array and/or battery power output, given a minimum allowable battery state of charge.
The Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) mission will send a spacecraft to explore three of Jupiter s moons (Callisto, Ganymede, and Europa), all of which show evidence of containing vast subterranean oceans beneath their icy surfaces. The evidence of these oceans was discovered by Galileo, and the moons are believed to have the three essential ingredients for life: water, energy, and the necessary chemical elements. Galileo has shown that melted water on Europa has been in contact with the surface of the moon in geologically recent times, and may still lie relatively close to the surface. This project will also introduce a revolutionary new form of electric propulsion powered by a nuclear fission reactor. This electric propulsion is called ion propulsion. It was used on a previous mission called Deep Space 1, proving that ion propulsion works for interplanetary travel. Since JIMO will be traveling farther from the sun, solar power will be difficult to supply the electric energy demanded by the mission. Therefore a nuclear reactor and a thermo-electric converter system will be necessary. Besides making the trip to three of Jupiter's moons - one after the other - a realistic possibility, this new form of power and propulsion opens up the rest of the outer solar system for future exploration. JIMO will fulfill its goals by exploring Europa first, with subsequent trips to the moons Callisto and Ganymede in order to provide comparisons key to understanding the evolution of all three. In order to ensure the stability and proper preparation of the electrical system on JIMO, the High Power AC Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) Test Bed is being developed. The testing on.this AC PMAD will consist of electrical performance verification of candidate power system components. Examples of these components are: high power AC switchgear, high power ACDC converters, AC power distribution units, DC power distribution units, etc. Throughout the course of the summer the over-current control circuit for the five different size relays will be constructed and tested. This circuit will sense the current input to the spacecraft loads and automatically switch off power if the current is too high. Once the circuit is verified to function properly and all necessary modifications have been made, a circuit schematic and board layout will have to be drawn using OrCAD, and the circuits will have to be built.
Energy consumption in the United States has risen in response to both increasing population and to increasing levels of affluence. Depletion of domestic energy reserves requires consumption modulation, production of fossil fuels, more efficient conversion techniques, and large scale transitions to non-fossile fuel energy sources. Widening disparity between the wealthy and poor nations of the world contributes to trends that increase the likelihood of group action by the lesser developed countries to achieve political and economic goals. The formation of anticartel cartels is envisioned.
California's post-industrial society demands confidence in the energy supply system as an essential ingredient for social harmony and adequate job creating capital investment. Confidence requires policies which balance supply and demand using believable methods with adequate allowance for the unexpected, reliance on diverse sources and locations, respect for our environment, sustain our individual freedoms and provide opportunities for economic mobility. Coal will play only a part, but an important part, in a multifaceted energy policy using numerous energy sources and systems, conservation techniques, and cooperating societal institutions. Today's extensive and challenging research and development provides the foundation for future technologies which will further resolve the environmental effects associated with coal.
An integrated power and attitude control system (IPACS) concept with potential application to a broad class of space missions is discussed. The concept involves the storage and supply on demand of electrical energy in rotating flywheels while simultaneously providing control torques by controlled precession of the flywheels. The system is thus an alternative to the storage batteries used on present spacecraft while providing similar capability for attitude control as that represented by a control moment gyroscope (CMG) system. Potential IPACS configurations discussed include single- and double-rotor double-gimbal IPACS units. Typical sets of control laws which would manage the momentum and energy exchange between the IPACS and a typical space vehicle are discussed. Discussion of a simulation of a typical potential IPACS configuration and candidate mission concerned with pointing capability, power supply and demand flow, and discussion of the interactions between stabilization and control requirements and power flow requirements are presented.
The supply, collection and demand for solar power needed for a ten person base on Mars are examined. A detailed discussion is presented for the estimation of the amount of usable solar energy than can reach the surface of Mars. The irradiance is determined for high, middle and low latitudes. In general it was found that the variation of dust in the Martian atmosphere affected the optimal choice for solar power collection mechanisms. Sun tracking systems worked best under clearer conditions and basic horizontal collectors performed best under cloud/hazy conditions.
Complete residential solar-heating and hot-water system, when installed in highly-insulated energy-saver home, can supply large percentage of total energy demand for space heating and domestic hot water. System which uses water-heating energy storage can be scaled to meet requirements of building in which it is installed.
The international demand for and supply of oil between the years 1980 and 2000 is assessed and future world oil prices and their implications for the price of jet fuel are estimated. Three critical questions are investigated: (1) how long will the world supply of oil continue to keep pace with its demand under likely trends in its use and discovery; (2) at what price will demand and supply clear the world oil market; (3) what does the analysis imply about the price of jet fuel. Projection of oil price is based upon supply and demand, which is consistent with microeconomic analysis.
The solar energy system located at the Visitors' Center on the Stephens College Campus, Columbia, Missouri is discussed. The system is installed in a four-story, 15,000 square foot building. The solar energy system is an integral design of the building and utilizes 176 hydronic flat plate collectors which use a 50 percent water ethylene blycol solution and water-to-water heat exchanger. Solar heated water is stored in a 5,000 gallon water storage tank located in the basement equipment room. A natural gas fired hot water boiler supplies hot water when the solar energy heat supply fails to meet the demand. The designed solar contribution is 71 percent of the heating load.
The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.