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Results for “Engineering Risk Assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗
DOE OSTI2022

RRFMC Drop Tester: Conduct of R&D Engineering System Risk Assessment

This report provides a documented risk assessment and subsequent determination of engineering rigor for the modification of the drop tester system inside of the Respirable Release Fraction Measurement Chamber (RRFMC) located in TA03-130. This risk assessment does not apply to the modification of the structural support system, containment barrier, pressure system, nor fluid system of the RRFMC, but only seeks to address the risk associated with the specific system used to raise and drop test articles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1998

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Smart, Christian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk assessment of engineering diseases of embankment–bridge transition section for railway in permafrost regions

Abstract The embankment–bridge transition section (EBTS) is one of the zones where railway diseases occur frequently in permafrost regions. Disease risk assessment of EBTSs can provide guidance for maintenance. In this study, considering the engineering geological conditions, climate characteristics, and embankment structure types along the Qinghai–Tibet Railway (QTR) as well as based on the disease inventory of the QTR from 2010 to 2019, the logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and combination‐weight‐based gay relation analysis (GRA) were used for disease risk assessment of the EBTSs along the QTR in permafrost regions. The results indicate that the LR and SVM models have a better capability for EBTS disease prediction than the GRA model, and the SVM model can select more disease samples in relatively larger regions than the LR model. Based on the SVM and LR models, the risk level of EBTSs is divided into four classes: low‐ (29.9%), moderate‐ (39.6%), high‐ (22.1%), and very high (8.4%) risk. Finally, we selected 272 EBTSs in high‐ and very‐high‐risk classes for key observation during the maintenance of the QTR in permafrost regions. This study provides a reference for the risk assessment of railways built in permafrost regions using data‐driven methods.

Zhang, Saize↗
NASA NTRS2018

GSFC Risk Assessment Process for Inherited Items

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate is implementing an alternate process for approval of Spacecraft Inherited Items in accordance with Goddard Procedural Requirements 8730.5. A Commodity Risk Assessment Engineer is performing an Inherited Item Risk Assessment (I2RA) for the use of Spacecraft Standard Components (items generally necessary to control the spacecraft, e.g. reaction wheel assemblies) and payload flight spares or Built-to-Print items. The I2RA may take into account prior space flight performance, criticality of the component, qualification records, quality and reliability records, storage conditions, manufacturer assessments, and mission specific parameters like mission environment and duration. The I2RA provides a means to accept for the entire item materials, parts or workmanship non-conformances, that do not significantly increase risk.

Risk Assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Launch Vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗
NASA NTRS1977

Engine non-containment: UK risk assessment methods

More realistic guideline data must be developed for use in aircraft design in order to comply with recent changes in British civil airworthiness requirements. Unrealistically pessimistic results were obtained when the methodology developed during the Concorde SST certification program was extended to assess catastrophic risks resulting from uncontained engine rotors.

Wallin, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Development of Risk Assessment Matrix for NASA Engineering and Safety Center

This paper describes a study, which had as its principal goal the development of a sufficiently detailed 5 x 5 Risk Matrix Scorecard. The purpose of this scorecard is to outline the criteria by which technical issues can be qualitatively and initially prioritized. The tool using this score card has been proposed to be one of the information resources the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) takes into consideration when making decisions with respect to incoming information on safety concerns across the entire NASA agency. The contents of this paper discuss in detail each element of the risk matrix scorecard, definitions for those elements and the rationale behind the development of those definitions. This scorecard development was performed in parallel with the tailoring of the existing Futron Corporation Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) software tool. IRMA was tailored to fit NESC needs for evaluating incoming safety concerns and was renamed NESC Assessment Risk Management Application (NAFMA) which is still in developmental phase.

Malone, Roy W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Risk Assessment Architecture for Enhanced Engine Operation

On very rare occasions, in-flight emergencies have occurred that required the pilot to utilize the aircraft's capabilities to the fullest extent possible, sometimes using actuators in ways for which they were not intended. For instance, when flight control has been lost due to damage to the hydraulic systems, pilots have had to use engine thrust to maneuver the plane to the ground and in for a landing. To assist the pilot in these situations, research is being performed to enhance the engine operation by making it more responsive or able to generate more thrust. Enabled by modification of the propulsion control, enhanced engine operation can increase the probability of a safe landing during an inflight emergency. However, enhanced engine operation introduces risk as the nominal control limits, such as those on shaft speed, temperature, and acceleration, are exceeded. Therefore, an on-line tool for quantifying this risk must be developed to ensure that the use of an enhanced control mode does not actually increase the overall danger to the aircraft. This paper describes an architecture for the implementation of this tool. It describes the type of data and algorithms required and the information flow, and how the risk based on engine component lifing and operability for enhanced operation is determined.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Use Case-Informed Framework for Utility Cloud Migration

This white paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing utilities’ cloud postures and frameworks. It aims to produce a roadmap and strategy for a cloud-enabled grid future, providing guidance for integrators, asset owners, and operators. Instead of offering a yes or no answer for cloud implementation, this framework offers strategic guidance on responsibly preparing for and deploying cloud solutions. This paper delves into cloud-service models pertinent to the electric sector, dissecting the shared responsibility model and elucidating what on-premise infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), and software as a service (SaaS) entail. A pivotal consideration within the context of the shared responsibility model is the allocation of responsibility for foundational security aspects—a decision that will be informed by a comprehensive risk assessment. The ensuing discussion will present a checklist of certifications necessary for a secure cloud transition, equipping utilities with the knowledge to navigate this digital transformation with confidence and with a strategic roadmap. Furthermore, the paper outlines gaps in understanding the U.S. government’s role in shaping technology development and responsible use. Its purpose is to aid decision-making by offering support for risk-informed solutions that benefit those managing assets and operating in the cloud environment. The primary objective is to enhance the resilience and future readiness of a decarbonized electric grid, with cloud solutions as one viable option. The paper synthesizes information on current and future grid architectures and applications, considering both conservative and progressive energy transitions, along with scalable and distributed computing considerations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2023

Closed Environment Air Revitalization System Based on Metal Organic Framework Adsorbents

This project utilized a systems engineering methodology to develop a vacuum swing adsorption system with full Labview automated control. The project was successful and provided students with an introduction to systems engineering and air revitalization. Specifically, two stainless steel adsorption beds were custom designed and manufactured and a sequence of computer controlled valves were used to deliver CO 2 laden, humid air, to the adsorbent where the CO 2 was removed from the air stream. Runs were completed using 13X zeolite and bed timing and switching was controlled by the computer based on the data output of a CO 2 detector. Adsorption runs using the MOF have not been completed upon the writing of this report; however, the MOF material is currently being synthesized and the runs will be completed upon receipt of the material. A follow up meeting with NASA has been tentatively planned to discuss the output of these experiments. Consistent with systems engineering practice, an end of project assessment of the class was conducted with the students and several items were realized. Specifically, the short period of performance of this grant makes it necessary to maintain a narrowly focused scope on the project such that multiple experiments after systems development (T&E) need to be limited to ensure timely completion of the proposed tasks. Also, procurement of parts may need to be moved forward in time to allow for delivery delays, and it may be necessary to request SDR, PDR, and CDR dates from NASA that are ahead of the NASA anticipated schedule. These types of lessons provided valuable to both the PI and the students and ultimately illustrate the necessity of proper systems engineering schedule risk assessment. The class met the objectives of the project and provided an introduction to systems engineering to undergraduate students. As a metric of that success, the lead engineer of the undergraduate design team acquired a job with an aerospace defense contractor, which he attributed to his knowledge of systems engineering concepts that were acquired via the X-Hab class.

T. Grant Glover↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scaling Evaluation of Ice-Crystal Icing on a Modern Turbofan Engine in PSL Using the COMDES-MELT Code

This paper presents preliminary ice-crystal icing (ICI) altitude scaling evaluation results of a Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) that was tested in the NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) during January of 2018. This engine geometry features a hidden core design to keep the core less exposed. The engine was fitted with internal video cameras to observe various ice buildup processes at multiple selected locations within the engine core flow path covering the fan stator, the splitter-lip/shroud/strut, and the high pressure compressor (HPC) variable inlet guide vane (IGV) regions. The potential ice accretion risk was pre-determined to occur by using NASA’s in-house 1D Engine Icing Risk assessment code, COMDES-MELT. The code was successful in predicting the risk of ice accretion in adiabatic regions like the fan-stator of the HURE at specific engine operating points. However at several operating points during the test, liquid water was observed running along the shroud toward the variable IGV of the HPC regions with an air temperature well below freezing, thus no particle melting could have occurred due to heating from the air alone. It was reasoned that other sources of heat were present in that region. To account for these heat sources the inlet total temperature was adjusted to give a wet bulb temperature of 24 F below the standard minimum wet bulb temperature of 492 R to allow ice to accrete in the splitter-lip/shroud/strut region, which was determined from a reference case where hard ice was observed in that region. With that adjustment the COMDES-MELT code was successful in providing operating points where there was a risk of ice accretion during the test campaign. In addition to calculating possible conditions at different selected lower altitudes, simulations were run to determine potential inlet conditions that could lead to ice-crystal accretion along the prescribed stations where the cameras were available. From there, scaled test conditions were determined by best matching the following three icing related parameters of the reference condition: (1) the local air total wet bulb temperature, (2) the local ice crystal cloud melt ratio and (3) the engine fan face ice/water to air mass flux ratio of the ice crystal cloud. Instantaneous images taken from the time-lapsed movies of ice buildup were used along with the relevant thermodynamic data of air, water vapor and local icing condition to help evaluate how closely the proposed altitude scaling method could be used in ground based test facility to duplicate selected reference ICI features observed at specific location inside this engine at different scale altitudes. Discussions on observed limitation for engine icing scaling application from this test campaign and needed improvement are provided. A scaling test procedure to help identify potential ICI risk conditions and possible ice accretion locations of a new turbofan engine is evaluated in PSL.

Engine Testing in PSL↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗