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Results for “Ensemble-based methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty for deep learning based forecasting and flow-reconstruction using neural architecture search ensembles

Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks — forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. In conclusion, we demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.

Deep ensembles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale Study of Ligand–Protein Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations: Actionable Predictions from Statistically Robust Protocols

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1999

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqui↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known Gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions (e.g., Miller 1994). Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz (1963) model as well as more realistic models of the oceans (Evensen and van Leeuwen 1996) and atmosphere (Houtekamer and Mitchell 1998). A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter equations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members (Burgers 1998). The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to quite puzzling in that results of state estimate are worse than for their filter analogue (Evensen 1997). In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use Lorenz (1963) model to test and compare the behavior of a variety implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqiu↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development of Super Ensemble-Based Aviation Turbulence Guidance (SEATG) for Air Traffic Management

A new method for forecasting turbulence is developed and evaluated using the high resolution weather model and in situ turbulence observations from commercial aircraft. The new method is an ensemble of various turbulence metrics from multiple time-lagged ensemble forecasts created using a sequence of four procedures. These include weather modeling, calculation of turbulence metrics, mapping the metrics into a common turbulence-scale, and production of final forecast. The new method uses similar methodology as current operational turbulence forecast with three improvements. First, it uses a higher resolution ((delta)x = 3 km) weather model to capture cloud resolving scale phenomena. Second, it computes the metrics for multiple forecasts that are combined at the same valid time resulting in a time-lagged ensemble of multiple turbulence metrics. Finally, it provides both deterministic and probabilistic turbulence forecasts. Results show the new forecasts match well with observed radar reflectivity along a surface front as well as convectively induced turbulence outside the clouds on research period. Overall performance skill of the new turbulence forecast compared with the observed EDR data during the research period is superior to any single turbulence metric. The probabilistic turbulence forecast is used in an example air traffic management application for creating a wind-optimal route considering turbulence information. The wind-optimal route passing through areas of 50% potential for moderate-or-greater turbulence and the lateral turbulence avoidance routes starting from three different waypoints along the wind-optimal route from Los Angeles international airport to John F. Kennedy international airport are calculated using different turbulence forecasts. This example shows additional flight time is required to avoid potential turbulence encounters.

modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Ensemble-Based Smoother with Retrospectively Updated Weights for Highly Nonlinear Systems

Monte Carlo computational methods have been introduced into data assimilation for nonlinear systems in order to alleviate the computational burden of updating and propagating the full probability distribution. By propagating an ensemble of representative states, algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the resampled particle filter (RPF) rely on the existing modeling infrastructure to approximate the distribution based on the evolution of this ensemble. This work presents an ensemble-based smoother that is applicable to the Monte Carlo filtering schemes like EnKF and RPF. At the minor cost of retrospectively updating a set of weights for ensemble members, this smoother has demonstrated superior capabilities in state tracking for two highly nonlinear problems: the double-well potential and trivariate Lorenz systems. The algorithm does not require retrospective adaptation of the ensemble members themselves, and it is thus suited to a streaming operational mode. The accuracy of the proposed backward-update scheme in estimating non-Gaussian distributions is evaluated by comparison to the more accurate estimates provided by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast uncertainty estimates in deep learning interatomic potentials

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and material properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point estimates of their predictions and do not come with predictive uncertainties associated with these estimates. Existing uncertainty quantification efforts have primarily leveraged the standard deviation of predictions across an ensemble of independently trained neural networks. This incurs a large computational overhead in both training and prediction, resulting in order-of-magnitude more expensive predictions. Here, we propose a method to estimate the predictive uncertainty based on a single neural network without the need for an ensemble. This allows us to obtain uncertainty estimates with virtually no additional computational overhead over standard training and inference. We demonstrate that the quality of the uncertainty estimates matches those obtained from deep ensembles. We further examine the uncertainty estimates of our methods and deep ensembles across the configuration space of our test system and compare the uncertainties to the potential energy surface. Finally, we study the efficacy of the method in an active learning setting and find the results to match an ensemble-based strategy at order-of-magnitude reduced computational cost.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Electronic Absorption Spectra of the Indocarbocyanine Cy3

Accurate modeling of optical spectra requires careful treatment of the molecular structures and vibronic, environmental, and thermal contributions. The accuracy of the computational methods used to simulate absorption spectra is limited by their ability to account for all the factors that affect the spectral shapes and energetics. The ensemble-based approaches are widely used to model the absorption spectra of molecules in the condensed-phase, and their performance is system dependent. The Franck–Condon approach is suitable for simulating high resolution spectra of rigid systems, and its accuracy is limited mainly by the harmonic approximation. In this work, the absorption spectrum of the widely used cyanine Cy3 is simulated using the ensemble approach via classical and quantum sampling, as well as, the Franck–Condon approach. The factors limiting the ensemble approaches, including the sampling and force field effects, are tested, while the vertical and adiabatic harmonic approximations of the Franck–Condon approach are also systematically examined. Our results show that all the vertical methods, including the ensemble approach, are not suitable to model the absorption spectrum of Cy3, and recommend the adiabatic methods as suitable approaches for the modeling of spectra with strong vibronic contributions. We find that the thermal effects, the low frequency modes, and the simultaneous vibrational excitations have prominent contributions to the Cy3 spectrum. The inclusion of the solvent stabilizes the energetics significantly, while its negligible effect on the spectral shapes aligns well with the experimental observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the impact of temporal analysis of products reactor initial state uncertainties on kinetic parameters

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor, a transient kinetic tool, provides users with information as the catalyst state evolves. However, the state of the art for TAP uncertainty quantification only considers the experimental noise present in the outlet flow signal. Additional sources of uncertainty, including, but not limited to, initial surface coverages, the catalyst zone location, the inert void fraction, and the gas pulse intensity and pulse delay, are not included. For this reason, a framework for quantifying all uncertainty sources present in TAP experiments is presented and applied to a carbon monoxide oxidation case study. Herein, two methods for quantifying these sources of uncertainty are introduced. The first utilizes initial state sensitivities to approximate the parameter variances, as well as to provide insights into the structural certainty of the model. The second generates parameter confidence distributions through an ensemble-based sampling algorithm. This initial state covariance matrix can ultimately be merged with the experimental noise covariance matrix, providing a unified description of the parameter uncertainties for a single TAP experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity validation of digital surrogates using variable-density turbulent mixing models

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable-density (Atwood = 0.22), compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds averaged NavierStokes and large-eddy simulations) have been validated extensively with more canonical flows in previous studies, here the present approach offers novelty in the complexity of the geometry, the ensemble-based validation, and the uniformity of the computational framework on which the models are tested. Moreover, all experimental and computational tasks were completed by the authors which has led to a tightly coupled experimental configuration with its “digital twin.” The experimental divergent-shock-tube facility and its data acquisition methods are described and replicated in simulation space. A 2D Euler model which neglects the turbulent mixing at the interface is optimized to experimental data using a Gaussian process. This model then serves as the basis for both the 2D RANS and 3D LES studies that make comparisons to the mixing-layer data from the experiment. A relatively simple RANS model is shown to produce good agreement with experimental data only at late flow development times. The LES ensembles generally show good agreement with experimental data but display sensitivity to the characterization of initial conditions. Resolution-dependent behavior is also observed for certain higher-order statistics of interest. Overall, the LES model successfully captures the effects of divergent geometry, compressibility, and combined nonlinear instabilities inherent to the problem. The successful prediction of mixing width and its growth rate highlight the existence of three distinct regimes in the development of the instability, each with similarities to previously studied instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Generalized, Compactly-Supported Correlation Function for Data Assimilation Applications

Correlation functions play an essential role in modern data assimilation, where they are used to model covariances given a set of tunable parameters or applied as tapering functions to localize covariances in ensemble-based schemes. One of the most widely-used correlation functions in data assimilation is the Gaspari and Cohn (1999) piecewise-rational, compactly-supported parametric correlation function (hereafter referred to as GC99). The GC99 correlation function is useful due to its tunable cut-off parameter c and Gaussian-like shape achieved when the parameter a is set to one-half. These properties are attractive for tapering functions in data assimilation applications. However, the GC99 correlation function is homogeneous over Euclidean 3-space and isotropic when restricted to the sphere, properties that may be less than ideal for some geophysical applications. GC99 is also compactly-supported on a sphere of fixed radius, which requires tuning of the cut-off parameter c that can depend on the specific application. This work presents a generalization of the GC99 correlation function that allows the cut-off parameter c and shape parameter a to vary over space to gain more flexibility in shape while maintaining its compact support property. The function, which we call the Generalized Gaspari Cohn (GenGC) correlation function, introduces inhomogeneity in Euclidean 3-space and anisotropy when restricted to the sphere by allowing both parameters c and a to vary, as functions, over the spatial domain. The GC99 correlation function is a special case of GenGC where the functions c and a are held constant, as fixed parameters rather than functions. The GenGC correlation function also generalizes the follow-on to the work of Gaspari and Cohn (1999) presented in Gaspari et al. (2006), which allowed a to vary while keeping c fixed. We illustrate through simple one- and two-dimensional examples the variety of inhomogeneous and anisotropic correlation functions GenGC can produce by varying c and a over space, and suggest applications where they may be useful in data assimilation, such as covariance modeling or localization. In particular, we describe how the GenGC correlation function can be used to construct covariances using correlation length and variance fields derived from dynamics. For example, the correlation length field for advective dynamics is governed by a partial differential equation (PDE) in N spatial dimensions, where N is the number of space dimensions of the state. Correlation length fields can be determined from this PDE and used with GenGC to construct the corresponding correlations. We can then approximate the full covariance by rescaling by the variance, which also satisfies a PDE in N spatial dimensions for advective dynamics. Thus we can approximate the full covariance without solving the covariance PDE, which is in 2N spatial dimensions, by solving just two PDEs each in only N spatial dimensions. This approach to evolving the correlation length and variance fields, then reconstructing the correlations using GenGC, is suggested as an alternative to current methods of covariance modeling in data assimilation algorithms.

GC99↗
DOE OSTI2022

QUIC-URB and QUIC-fire extension to complex terrain: Development of a terrain-following coordinate system

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by CFD-based models like FIRETEC and WFDS because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage LES approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, typical for instance of the Western United States. In this paper, we describe the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. In particular, the paper presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captured the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. We report the model agreed well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimated speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field was obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire–atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain was highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect was addressed in this work). Results highlight that future work should focus on the implementation of parameterizations of wake-eddies, similar to QUIC-URB’s building parameterizations, and on thermodynamic-driven flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Performance Semiempirical Excited-State Molecular Dynamics Powered by Graphics Processing Units

Here, this Letter introduces excited-state molecular dynamics in PYSEQM, a GPU-accelerated semiempirical quantum chemistry engine implemented in PyTorch. The new module enables Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) using configuration-interaction singles and random phase approximation for excited states, allowing long trajectories and large statistical ensembles to be simulated efficiently on a single GPU. We also implement an extended Lagrangian excited-state BOMD (XL-ESMD) scheme that propagates auxiliary electronic variables, enabling relaxed ground and excited-state convergence thresholds without compromising energy conservation. The excited-state BOMD implementation scales smoothly from small chromophores to a nearly 900-atom dendrimer (taking 6.5 s per MD step). PYSEQM also supports batched execution, allowing many geometries or trajectories to be evaluated in a single GPU launch, substantially increasing throughput and making ensemble-based protocols routine. As a demonstration, we compute absorption, emission, and infrared spectra from trajectories propagated on the ground and first excited states. The XL-ESMD scheme yields identical spectra at significantly lower computational cost, establishing the role of extended Lagrangian based dynamics for efficient excited-state BOMD simulations. Beyond raw performance, PYSEQM’s PyTorch foundation provides automatic differentiation for forces, efficient GPU batching, and seamless interfacing with machine learning models. These capabilities position PYSEQM as a practical platform for machine learning-augmented excited-state dynamics and lay the foundation for future data-driven nonadiabatic excited-state dynamics modeling of ultrafast spectroscopic probes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Terrain-Influenced Winds and Fire-Fire Interactions in Wildland Fire Simulations [Dissertation]

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗