Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.

Prediction of error rates in dose-imprinted memories on board CRRES by two different methods

An analysis of the expected space radiation effects on the single event upset (SEU) properties of CMOS/bulk memories onboard the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) is presented. Dose-imprint data from ground test irradiations of identical devices are applied to the predictions of cosmic-ray-induced space upset rates in the memories onboard the spacecraft. The calculations take into account the effect of total dose on the SEU sensitivity of the devices as the dose accumulates in orbit. Estimates of error rates, which involved an arbitrary selection of a single pair of threshold linear energy transfer (LET) and asymptotic cross-section values, were compared to the results of an integration over the cross-section curves versus LET. The integration gave lower upset rates than the use of the selected values of the SEU parameters. Since the integration approach is more accurate and eliminates the need for an arbitrary definition of threshold LET and asymptotic cross section, it is recommended for all error rate predictions where experimental sigma-versus-LET curves are available.

Brucker, G. J.

Assessment of Governing Heat and Mass Transfer Coefficients for Cryogenic No-Vent Top-Off Modeling

No-vent fill / no-vent top-off (NVF/NVTO) is a method to enable the trans-fer of cryogenic propellants without the need to vent. Transferring propellants inmicrogravity environments is necessary to support the long-duration space missionsplanned for the coming decades. A key developmental milestone to developing thiscapability fully is the simulation and experimentation of NVF/NVTO in 1-g settings.This work seeks to advance the former by assessing the effectiveness of different heattransfer correlations used in a 1-g non-equilibrium model. Heat transfer correlationsfor natural convection and two-phase boiling heat transfer are compared against ex-perimental results for 34 different tests. Two distinct experiments, comprised of 21tests, are presented in detail here. These tests cover a variety of different injectionmethods, receiver tank geometries, receiver tank materials, cryogenic propellants, andinitial tank states. Overall for the cases tested in this work, the model was able topredict the pressure response within the receiver tank to a mean absolute percentageerror of 25.9%. The temperature response error rate was 29.5% and 24.9% for wall-gasand two-phase nodes, respectively. Compared to the worst case correlation set tested,the pressure prediction error rate represents a 31% improvement. For the cases pre-sented in this work, the mean pressure prediction error rate was 15.5%. Future workcould evaluate the effectiveness of this model against experiments conducted withdifferent propellants or different initial conditions. In its current form, however, themodel can still be used to help reduce design and testing time for 1-g experiments,enabling the quicker iteration that is necessary to meet the technological demands offuture space missions.

No-Vent Top Off

Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

Buchner, S. P.

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.

Accelerators for critical experiments involving single-particle upset in solid-state microcircuits

Charged-particle interactions in microelectronic circuit chips (integrated circuits) present a particularly insidious problem for solid-state electronic systems due to the generation of soft errors or single-particle event upset (SEU) by either cosmic rays or other radiation sources. Particle accelerators are used to provide both light and heavy ions in order to assess the propensity of integrated circuit chips for SEU. Critical aspects of this assessment involve the ability to analytically model SEU for the prediction of error rates in known radiation environments. In order to accurately model SEU, the measurement and prediction of energy deposition in the form of an electron-hole plasma generated along an ion track is of paramount importance. This requires the use of accelerators which allow for ease in both energy control (change of energy) and change of ion species. This and other aspects of ion-beam control and diagnostics (e.g., uniformity and flux) are of critical concern for the experimental verification of theoretical SEU models.

Zoutendyk, J. A.

Effect of flutter on theoretical bit error rates for digital recording systems.

Tape recorders employed to record and eventually reproduce digital data introduce errors into the data. It is desirable to understand the sources of these errors so that predictions may be made of the resultant error rate. While specific predictions are difficult to apply to whole classes of machines and their respective electronic systems, it is possible to make general predictions which give insight into the problems and processes involved. A heuristic viewpoint is developed for understanding the problems involved in machines and systems that now exist.

Byers, R. A.

TDRSS performance evaluation for TDRSS services using analytical simulation

An analytical simulation package which can predict bit error rate and tracking performance for nonlinear, bandlimited satellite links was developed for the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). It is based on analytical simulation, i.e., a combination of simulation techniques and analytical performance evaluation. This allows the use of a more realistic signal format than is possible with a purely analytical approach and maintains the advantage of short computation time on bandlimited, nonlinear channels with a noisy uplink. The link models and the main features of the program are described and an overview of the mathematical approach is given. Sample results of computer runs are provided for current power budgets and system design parameters for both forward and return links.

Braun, W. R.

Single Event Analysis and Fault Injection Techniques Targeting Complex Designs Implemented in Xilinx-Virtex Family Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Devices

An informative session regarding SRAM FPGA basics. Presenting a framework for fault injection techniques applied to Xilinx Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Introduce an overlooked time component that illustrates fault injection is impractical for most real designs as a stand-alone characterization tool. Demonstrate procedures that benefit from fault injection error analysis.

Single Event Upset Testing

Independent Single Event Upset Testing of the Xilinx V5QV

In this presentation, we provide a brief glimpse at preliminary single event test results taken from two years of testing of the Xilinx V5QV Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). This presentation includes an overview of test philosophy and implementation.

Single Event Upset Testing

Cosmic ray-induced soft errors in static MOS memory cells

Previous analytical models were extended to predict cosmic ray-induced soft error rates in static MOS memory devices. The effect is due to ionization and can be introduced by high energy, heavy ion components of the galactic environment. The results indicate that the sensitivity of memory cells is directly related to the density of the particular MOS technology which determines the node capacitance values. Hence, CMOS is less sensitive than e.g., PMOS. In addition, static MOS memory cells are less sensitive than dynamic ones due to differences in the mechanisms of storing bits. The flip-flop of a static cell is inherently stable against cosmic ray-induced bit flips. Predicted error rates on a CMOS RAM and a PMOS shift register are in general agreement with previous spacecraft flight data.

Sivo, L. L.

Notes on Accuracy of Finite-Volume Discretization Schemes on Irregular Grids

Truncation-error analysis is a reliable tool in predicting convergence rates of discretization errors on regular smooth grids. However, it is often misleading in application to finite-volume discretization schemes on irregular (e.g., unstructured) grids. Convergence of truncation errors severely degrades on general irregular grids; a design-order convergence can be achieved only on grids with a certain degree of geometric regularity. Such degradation of truncation-error convergence does not necessarily imply a lower-order convergence of discretization errors. In these notes, irregular-grid computations demonstrate that the design-order discretization-error convergence can be achieved even when truncation errors exhibit a lower-order convergence or, in some cases, do not converge at all.

Diskin, Boris

Validity of the two-level model for Viterbi decoder gap-cycle performance

A two-level model has previously been proposed for approximating the performance of a Viterbi decoder which encounters data received with periodically varying signal-to-noise ratio. Such cyclically gapped data is obtained from the Very Large Array (VLA), either operating as a stand-alone system or arrayed with Goldstone. This approximate model predicts that the decoder error rate will vary periodically between two discrete levels with the same period as the gap cycle. It further predicts that the length of the gapped portion of the decoder error cycle for a constraint length K decoder will be about K-1 bits shorter than the actual duration of the gap. The two-level model for Viterbi decoder performance with gapped data is subjected to detailed validation tests. Curves showing the cyclical behavior of the decoder error burst statistics are compared with the simple square-wave cycles predicted by the model. The validity of the model depends on a parameter often considered irrelevant in the analysis of Viterbi decoder performance, the overall scaling of the received signal or the decoder's branch-metrics. Three scaling alternatives are examined: optimum branch-metric scaling and constant branch-metric scaling combined with either constant noise-level scaling or constant signal-level scaling. The simulated decoder error cycle curves roughly verify the accuracy of the two-level model for both the case of optimum branch-metric scaling and the case of constant branch-metric scaling combined with constant noise-level scaling. However, the model is not accurate for the case of constant branch-metric scaling combined with constant signal-level scaling.

Dolinar, S.