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Results for “Estimate at completion”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

The Poisson tensor completion parametric estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator that exploits inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram for samples of a multivariate distribution. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial non-homogeneous Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the mean measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values obviating the need for additional constraints to ensure non-negativity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Validation & Verification of Electrical Components B2 Test Facility

The research focus of this project is to assist in the closure of Measurement, Monitoring and Control System (MMCS) and other electrical requirements in support of the B2 Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage Green Run Test Project. Alongside this goal I am to understand project management tools to analyze and control activities/tasks associated with those items. The project I am working on will assist electrical engineers in developing and or identifying closure rationale for the MMCS and electrical requirements. Also as serving the role of a training project manager, I am to develop and maintain a method for tracking progress with estimate completion dates specifically identifying those items during this performance window. The methods I used in order to perform the research consisted of worddocuments, excel sheets, and pdf documents needed for review. For example, documents consisted of: a SLS Core Stage Green Run Facility Requirement Document (FRD) identifying the SSC MMCS and electrical requirements, a Stage Controller to SSC Interface Control Document (ICD) identifying the SSC requirements, and the B2 SLS Core Stage Green Run Test project System Requirements Document (SRD) which identifies the MMCS and electrical requirements. The files were sent to me by both mentors, Mr. Barry Robinson and Ms. Dawn Davis. Overall, the review process for the word documents and excel spreadsheets proved to be successful. The data for the electrical components were accurate and were consistent with the original recorded data. However, the consistency with the pdf documents did not follow up all the way. Attention to this mistake was made and further revisions were done in order for the data to agree with each other. Furthermore, an itinerary was designed using Microsoft Outlook in order to track progress with estimated completion dates. This project contributes to NASA/Center Missions and Goals through the Waterfall Model. The Waterfall Model is a linear system used for engineering design. In the Waterfall Model, the fourth step is Verification and Validation. This involves installation, testing, and debugging of the B2 SLS Core Stage electrical components. For the SLS Core Stage Green Run Test Project, each requirement contained in this approved requirements set will have at least one Verification Item (VI) assigned to it. During the design phase, VIs will mostly consist of Analysis or Inspection types. Design phase VIs and closure information will be documented in Dynamics Data Management System (DDMS) in the form of analysis reports and design documentation.

Bastian, Tyler↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pumped Storage Hydropower Operation & Maintenance Cost Estimation

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) develops and hosts a pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model that is the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The NLR PSH cost model was designed originally to consider only upfront capital costs only. This slide deck describes methodology to expand the cost model to include operations and maintenance (OM) costs. OM costs are characterized as five distinct components with unique sources and methods for cost estimation. By combining methods for each of these components into a cumulative OM cost estimate, these methods allow a more complete estimation of total OM costs that agrees with existing literature values. The methods are scalable and transparent, allowing them to be readily to applied to any prospective PSH facility for a representative preliminary OM cost estimate in advance of detailed site-specific engineering and other studies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1971

Information quality-control model

Model serves as graphic tool for estimating complete product objectives from limited input information, and is applied to cost estimations, product-quality evaluations, and effectiveness measurements for manpower resources allocation. Six product quality levels are defined.

Vincent, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Cross-bispectrum computation and variance estimation

A method for the estimation of cross-bispectra of discrete real time series is developed. The asymptotic variance properties of the bispectrum are reviewed, and a method for the direct estimation of bispectral variance is given. The symmetry properties are described which minimize the computations necessary to obtain a complete estimate of the cross-bispectrum in the right-half-plane. A procedure is given for computing the cross-bispectrum by subdividing the domain into rectangular averaging regions which help reduce the variance of the estimates and allow easy application of the symmetry relationships to minimize the computational effort. As an example of the procedure, the cross-bispectrum of a numerically generated, exponentially distributed time series is computed and compared with theory.

Lii, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Modelling the atmospheric boundary layer for remotely sensed estimates of daily evaporation

An energy and moisture balance model of the soil surface was used to estimate daily evaporation from wheat and barley fields in West Germany. The model was calibrated using remotely sensed surface temperature estimates. Complete atmospheric boundary layer models are difficult to use because of the number of parameters involved and a simplified model was used here. The resultant evaporation estimates were compared to eddy correlation evaporation estimates and good agreement was found.

Gurney, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

An ab initio benchmark study of the H + CO --> HCO reaction

The H + CO --> HCO reaction has been characterized with correlation consistent basis sets at five levels of theory in order to benchmark the sensitivities of the barrier height and reaction ergicity to the one-electron and n-electron expansions of the electronic wave function. Single and multireference methods are compared and contrasted. The coupled cluster method RCCSD(T) was found to be in very good agreement with Davidson-corrected internally-contracted multireference configuration interaction (MRCI+Q). Second-order Moller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) was also employed. The estimated complete basis set (CBS) limits for the barrier height (in kcal/mol) for the five methods, including harmonic zero-point energy corrections, are MP2, 4.66; RCCSD, 4.78; RCCSD(T), 4.15; MRCI, 5.10; and MRCI+Q, 4.07. Similarly, the estimated CBS limits for the ergicity of the reaction are: MP2, -17.99; RCCSD, -13.34; RCCSD(T), -13.79; MRCI, -11.46; and MRCI+Q, -13.70. Additional basis set explorations for the RCCSD(T) method demonstrate that aug-cc-pVTZ sets, even with some functions removed, are sufficient to reproduce the CBS limits to within 0.1-0.3 kcal/mol.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗
NASA NTRS1973

On Lidar Sounding of the Atmosphere to Estimate Static and Dynamic Characteristics of Aerosol Inhomogeneities

1. A possible application of intensity fluctuations of a pulse light signal reflected by atmospheric aerosols is analyzed by the correlation method to evaluate static (medium sizes, shape) and dynamic (speed and direction of movement, lifetime) characteristics of aerosol inhomogeneities. The aerosol inhomogeneities are assumed to be expanded, pressed, disintegrated and originated constantly in accordance with random laws, the set of inhomogeneities as a whole traveling together with air masses and having predominant movement in wind direction. It is shown that the characteristics of aerosol inhomogeneities considered can be expressed by the coefficients of the correlation function expansion of the reflected signal fluctuation intensity in Tailor series. 2/ Correlation systems for evaluating static and dynamic characteristics of driving objects can be divided into two types according to the kind and quantity of used information: the systems with coordinates of the information removal "points" to be fixed in space, and the systems with a parallel simultaneous information removal at discrete moments of time. The systems for determination of wind direction considered in are the examples of the first type system. However, the operating information removal for two points is insufficient to estimate completely static and dynamic characteristics of inhomogenities, their quantity ought to be increased up to three of them for two-dimensional problem and up to four of them for three-dimensional problem as it is usually done in the ionospheric studies. The second type systems are used for the investigation of a medium shape and speed of the clouds according to photographs made from satellites. These systems are also used for solution of navigation problems. The use of optical quantum generators with a scanning beam is seen to increase greatly the working information removal in comparison with the first type systems. Nevertheless, scanning rate is not sufficient sometimes in order· to consider a general picture of aerosol inhomogeneities to be stationary. In this connection the use of the systems of second type treatment becomes a matter of essential difficulty. 3. Aerosol inhomogeneities simulation has been carried out on the basis of the digital computer experiments with the aim of estimating static and dynamic characteristics of inhomogeneities by an optical beam in the atmosphere at different scanning procedures. The dependence of determination accuracy of these characteristics on the type of chosen laws of aerosol particle distribution in the atmosphere, the parameters of inhomogeneities geometry, their speed and the law of scanning have been obtained.

Zuev, V. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kaon mixing beyond the standard model with physical masses

We present nonperturbative results for beyond the standard model kaon mixing matrix elements in the isospin symmetric limit ( m u = m d ) of QCD, including a complete estimate of all dominant sources of systematic error. Our results are obtained from numerical simulations of lattice QCD with N f = 2 + 1 flavors of dynamical domain wall fermions. For the first time, these quantities are simulated directly at the physical pion mass m π ∼ 139 MeV for two different lattice spacings. We include data at three lattice spacings in the range a = 0.11 – 0.07 fm and with pion masses ranging from the physical value up to 450 MeV. Compared to our earlier work, we have added both direct calculations at physical quark masses and a third lattice spacing making the removal of discretization effects significantly more precise and eliminating the need for any significant mass extrapolation beyond the range of simulated data. We renormalize the lattice operators nonperturbatively using RI-SMOM off-shell schemes. These schemes eliminate the need to model and subtract nonperturbative pion poles that arises in the RI-MOM scheme and, since the calculations are performed with domain wall fermions, the unphysical mixing between chirality sectors is suppressed. Our results for the bag parameters in the MS ¯ scheme at 3 GeV are B K ≡ B 1 = 0.5240 ( 17 ) ( 54 ) , B 2 = 0.4794 ( 25 ) ( 35 ) , B 3 = 0.746 ( 13 ) ( 17 ) , B 4 = 0.897 ( 02 ) ( 10 ) and B 5 = 0.6882 ( 78 ) ( 94 ) , where the first error is from lattice uncertainties and the second is the uncertainty due to the perturbative matching to MS ¯ . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

BOILER Experiment Material Characterization and HFIR Irradiation Status

Pre-oxidized alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) steels have been previously identified as candidate alloys for structural components in lead-cooled fast reactors (LFRs). They offer compatibility with liquid Pb, high-temperature strength, formability, and cost advantages. However, variations in Ni content can affect the formation and stability of the Al 2 O 3 layer, influencing compatibility with liquid Pb. The effect of fast neutron irradiation on Al 2 O 3 stability in liquid Pb also requires evaluation. Therefore, understanding how Ni concentrations impacts pre-oxidized AFAs under combined extremes of irradiation and liquid metal corrosion is essential before safe deployment. The Behavior Of In-situ Lead Environments & Radiation (BOILER) experiment was developed under the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) program to integrate alloy development, irradiation experiment design, and irradiated materials characterization. In this effort, two pre-oxidized AFA steels with 20 wt% and 25 wt% Ni, hereinafter referred to as GA05-20Ni and GA05-25Ni, were produced. An irradiation experiment was then planned for the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), designed for passive heating of irradiation rabbit capsules from gamma heating in the HFIR flux trap (1 × 10 15 n/cm 2 ·s, >0.1 MeV). This heating melts Pb and exposes the pre-oxidized AFA steel specimens to nominal temperatures of 400 and 650°C. Detailed neutronics and thermal analyses were performed, though based on nominal design rather than as-built, as-irradiated conditions. This report documents further characterization of the pre-oxidized AFAs in the unirradiated condition. It also includes as-built thermal analysis using measured component dimensions, updated fill gas concentrations, and actual HFIR irradiation positions. Finally, the report summarizes capsule fabrication, current irradiation status, projected completion, estimated damage accumulation, and initial plans for post-irradiation examination plans.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Simulation results for the Viterbi decoding algorithm

Concepts involved in determining the performance of coded digital communications systems are introduced. The basic concepts of convolutional encoding and decoding are summarized, and hardware implementations of sequential and maximum likelihood decoders are described briefly. Results of parametric studies of the Viterbi decoding algorithm are summarized. Bit error probability is chosen as the measure of performance and is calculated, by using digital computer simulations, for various encoder and decoder parameters. Results are presented for code rates of one-half and one-third, for constraint lengths of 4 to 8, for both hard-decision and soft-decision bit detectors, and for several important systematic and nonsystematic codes. The effect of decoder block length on bit error rate also is considered, so that a more complete estimate of the relationship between performance and decoder complexity can be made.

Batson, B. H.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Ecology and thermal inactivation of microbes in and on interplanetary space vehicle components

The experiments conducted to determine the heat resistance of Bacillus megaterium ATCC 6458 at 90 and 100 C were completed. Estimates from replicate experiments at eight percent relative humidities (less than 0.001 to 100% RH) for each temperature were computed. A Bacillus cereus strain with high heat resistance was cultured and the resistance determined in phosphate buffer (D sub 121.1 = 2.16 min and z = 8.7 C). The profile of the dry heat resistance of B. megaterium is summarized and the most resistant condition to the three spores (Bacillus subtilis var. niger, ATCC 29669, and Bacillus stearothermophilus, strain 1518) is compared.

Reyes, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Radar investigation of asteroids

Software to support all stages of asteroid radar observation and data analysis is developed. First-order analysis of all data in hand is complete. Estimates of radar cross sections, circular polarization ratios, and limb-to-limb echo spectral bandwidths for asteroids 7 Iris, 16 Psyche, 97 Klotho, 1862 Apollo, and 1915 Quetzalcoatl are reported. Radar observations of two previously unobserved asteroids were conducted. An Aten asteroid, 2100 Ra-Shalom, with the smallest known semimajor axis (0.83) was detected. Preliminary data reduction indicates a circular polarization ratio comparable to those of Apollo, Quetzalcoatl, and Toro.

Ostro, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Gamma-Ray Fuel Gauges for Airplanes

Accurate system overcomes problems of capacitance gauges. Feasibility study conducted on use of attenuation of gamma rays to measure quantities of fuel in tanks. Studies with weak Am241 59.5-keV radiation source indicate it is possible to monitor continuously fuel quantity in tanks to accuracy of better than 1 percent. Measurements also indicate easily measurable differences in physical properties and resultant attenuation characteristics of JP-4, JP-5, and Jet A fuels. Am241-based densitometers currently in use aboard some aircraft . Estimated complete system, including microprocessor and associated display devices, assembled at cost of less than $10,000 per fuel tank.

Singh, Jag J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Automotive Stirling engine development program: A success

The original 5-yr Automotive Stirling Engine Development Program has been extended to 10 years due to reduced annual funding levels. With an estimated completion date of April 1988, the technical achievements and the prospectives of meeting the original program objectives are reviewed. Various other applications of this developed Stirling engine technology are also discussed.

Tabata, W. K.↗