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Results for “Estimated On Time”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating time in quantum chaotic systems and black holes

We characterize new universal features of the dynamics of chaotic quantum many-body systems, by considering a hypothetical task of "time estimation". Most macroscopic observables in a chaotic system equilibrate to nearly constant late-time values. Intuitively, it should become increasingly difficult to estimate the precise value of time by making measurements on the state. We use a quantity called the Fisher information from quantum metrology to quantify the minimum uncertainty in estimating time. Due to unitarity, the uncertainty in the time estimate does not grow with time if we have access to optimal measurements on the full system. Restricting the measurements to act on a small subsystem or to have low computational complexity leads to results expected from equilibration, where the time uncertainty becomes large at late times. With optimal measurements on a subsystem larger than half of the system, we regain the ability to estimate the time very precisely, even at late times. Hawking's calculation for the reduced density matrix of the black hole radiation in semiclassical gravity contradicts our general predictions for unitary quantum chaotic systems. Hawking's state always has a large uncertainty for attempts to estimate the time using the radiation, whereas our general results imply that the uncertainty should become small after the Page time. This gives a new version of the black hole information loss paradox in terms of the time estimation task. By restricting to simple measurements on the radiation, the time uncertainty becomes large. This indicates from a new perspective that the observations of computationally bounded agents are consistent with the semiclassical effective description of gravity.

Black holes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Agent Simulation Based Framework for Power Restoration Time Estimation at Distribution Level

The growing frequency of power outages has prompted increased interest in developing a more resilient power grid that can quickly recover from weather-related damage. At the distribution level, power restoration is a complex, multi-stage process involving multiple response entities. Providing utility stakeholders, government regulators, and the public with information about outage duration and estimated time to restoration is crucial. The research employs a multi-agent simulation approach, which allows for the simulation of decision-making behaviors among different entities and the incorporation of various uncertainties. Specifically, the study uses the open-source simulation package Mesa-Geo in conjunction with the Python language and constructs a road network using the open-source network extension pgRouting for routing queries. The research design includes several experiments focused on Florida as a case study, comparing repair crew sizes, power outage numbers, and road damage scenarios. The findings could offer valuable managerial guidance on resource allocation in the restoration process.

Chen, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relaxation time estimation in surface NMR

Technologies including NMR relaxation time estimation methods and corresponding apparatus are disclosed. Example techniques may include performing at least one single-pulse acquisition sequence, the single-pulse acquisition sequence comprising transmitting a single modulated pulse with a surface coil, wherein the phase, frequency, or amplitude of the single modulated pulse is varied during the single modulated pulse, and wherein the single modulated pulse excites a transverse magnetization component within a subsurface fluid. The resulting NMR signal may be recorded on at least one receiving device, including recording the NMR signal associated with the transverse magnetization component excited by the single modulated pulse. Processing techniques may be applied in which recorded NMR response data are used to estimate NMR properties and the relaxation times T1 and T2* as a function of position as well as one-dimensional and two-dimension distributions of T1 versus T2* as a function of subsurface position.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time estimation and control of divertor surface heat flux on the DⅢ-D tokamak

We report Future tokamaks will require robust technologies for the mitigation of heat exhaust onto the plasma-facing components. As a first step towards this development, a system has been developed at DIII-D that estimates and controls in real-time the heat flux to the PFCs. Real-time estimation of the peak power flux from this model-based approach is validated with off-line infra-red measurements for various DIII-D plasma discharges. A nonlinear free-boundary simulation code (GSevolve) is used for simulating the closed loop response and for the off-line determination of the control parameters. The implementation and first experimental results of the application during the DIII-D plasma campaign are reported.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-time estimators for scattering observables: A full account of finite-volume errors for quantum simulation

The real-time correlators of quantum field theories can be directly probed through new approaches to simulation, such as quantum computing and tensor networks. This provides a new framework for computing scattering observables in lattice formulations of strongly interacting theories, such as lattice quantum chromodynamics. In this paper, we prove that the proposal of real-time estimators of scattering observables is universally applicable to all scattering observables of gapped quantum field theories. All finite-volume errors are exponentially suppressed, and the rate of this suppression is controlled by the regulator considered, namely, a displacement of the spectrum of the theory into the complex plane. A partial restoration of Lorentz symmetry by averaging over different boosts gives an additional suppression of finite volume errors. Our results also apply to the simulation of wave packet scattering, where a similar averaging is performed to construct the wave packets that regulate the finite volume effects. This result represents a necessary key step toward determining a broad class of scattering observables via quantum computing that are currently inaccessible via classical computing. Such observables are relevant for various applications, including hadron spectroscopy, hadron structure, and precision tests of the Standard Model. We also comment on potential applications of our results to traditional computational schemes.

Burbano, Ivan M. [University of California, Berkel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time estimation of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D by leveraging neural-network surrogate models

Control of both the magnitude and the shape of tokamak profiles will be necessary to achieve stable, high-performance plasmas. In order to reject disturbances in real time, feedback-control algorithms rely on accurate real-time knowledge of the plasma state. When diagnostics alone are insufficient, either because they are limited in number or their measurements are too noisy, observers can be used to combine diagnostic data with a response model to provide a better estimation of different plasma properties. An observer has been developed to estimate the electron temperature profile in real time using both diagnostic data from the Thomson scattering system and a model based on the electron heat transport equation describing the evolution of the electron temperature profile. Here, neural network surrogate models are leveraged to help improve the overall model prediction while staying within computation time constraints for real-time use. The observer algorithm is shown in offline tests to produce smooth profiles that are consistent with both the diagnostic data and the electron heat transport equation. When implemented into the real-time plasma control system, this observer will provide valuable information on the electron temperature profile to many potential feedback-control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward active disruption avoidance via real-time estimation of the safe operating region and disruption proximity in tokamaks

This paper describes a real-time capable algorithm for identifying the safe operating region around a tokamak operating point. The region is defined by a convex set of linear constraints, from which the distance of a point from a disruptive boundary can be calculated. The disruptivity of points is calculated from an empirical machine learning predictor that generates the likelihood of disruption. While the likelihood generated by such empirical models can be compared to a threshold to trigger a disruption mitigation system, the safe operating region calculation enables active optimization of the operating point to maintain a safe margin from disruptive boundaries. The proposed algorithm is tested using a random forest disruption predictor fit on data from DIII-D. The safe operating region identification algorithm is applied to historical data from DIII-D showing the evolution of disruptive boundaries and the potential impact of optimization of the operating point. Real-time relevant execution times are made possible by parallelizing many of the calculation steps and implementing the algorithm on a graphics processing unit. Lastly, a real-time capable algorithm for optimizing the target operating point within the identified constraints is also proposed and simulated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the Timing of Early Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections: a Comparison between Poisson Fitter and BEAST

Many HIV prevention strategies are currently under consideration where it is highly informative to know the study participants’ times of infection. These can be estimated using viral sequence data sampled early in infection. However, there are several scenarios that, if not addressed, can skew timing estimates. These include multiple transmitted/founder (TF) viruses, APOBEC (apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like)-mediated mutational enrichment, and recombination. Here, we suggest a pipeline to identify these problems and resolve the biases that they introduce. We then compare two modeling strategies to obtain timing estimates from sequence data. The first, Poisson Fitter (PF), is based on a Poisson model of random accumulation of mutations relative to the TF virus (or viruses) that established the infection. The second uses a coalescence-based phylogenetic strategy as implemented in BEAST. The comparison is based on timing predictions using plasma viral RNA (cDNA) sequence data from 28 simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV)-infected animals for which the exact day of infection is known. In this particular setting, based on nucleotide sequences from samples obtained in early infection, the Poisson method yielded more accurate, more precise, and unbiased estimates for the time of infection than did the explored implementations of BEAST. The inference of the time of infection is a critical parameter in testing the efficacy of clinical interventions in protecting against HIV-1 infection. For example, in clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of passively delivered antibodies (Abs) for preventing infections, accurate time of infection data are essential for discerning levels of the Abs required to confer protection, given the natural Ab decay rate in the human body. In such trials, genetic sequences from early in the infection are regularly sampled from study participants, generally prior to immune selection, when the viral population is still expanding and genetic diversity is low. In this particular setting of early viral growth, the Poisson method is superior to the alternative approach based on coalescent methods. This approach can also be applied in human vaccine trials, where accurate estimates of infection times help ascertain if vaccine-elicited immune protection wanes over time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-Time Inertia Estimation Tool Implementation Based on Probing Signals

As renewable energy penetration increases and the traditional generators retire in power grids, system inertia decreases and exhibits significant daily fluctuations. Furthermore, fast frequency responses (FFRs) provided by the inverter-based resources (IBRs) begin to playa very critical role and bring new challenges to real-time system inertia monitoring due to the difficulties of quantifying its artificial inertia contribution. Thus, necessitating an accurate real-time inertia estimation tool will not only benefit the secure power grid operations, but also provide insights on assessing the artificial inertia contribution from the IBRs. This paper presents a probing-based real-time inertia estimation tool that has been validated through a power-hardware-in-the-Ioop (PHIL) test system using identical hardware battery energy storage system (BESS) and control in an actual power grid. Preliminary results indicate high estimation accuracy of the developed tool and pave the way for the field test and deployment.

inverter-based resources↗