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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Medium-/Low-Voltage Joint State Estimator Through Linear Uncertainty Propagation

Traditionally, distribution system state estimations (DSSE) are challenged by the lack of measurements at both primary and secondary sides of the system. The widely available cable television (CATV) voltage sensors installed in low-voltage (LV) networks bring opportunities to achieve higher quality DSSE covering a broader area of the distribution network. This study proposes a medium-/low-voltage (MV/LV) joint distribution system state estimation approach using the untapped CATV measurements. It aims at addressing the need for system situational awareness at the grid edge while improving the estimation accuracy at both the primary and secondary sides compared to its disjointed counterpart. Linearized measurement functions and boundary condition uncertainty propagation rules are derived to ensure the computational efficiency and accuracy of the joint state estimator. Numerical experiments are conducted on an IEEE test feeder to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and the value of CATV measurements.

joint state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Design Tool for Estimating Chemical Hydrogen Storage System Characteristics for Light-Duty Fuel Cell Vehicles

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a vehicle framework model to simulate fuel cell-based light-duty vehicle operation for various hydrogen storage systems. This transient model simulates the performance of the storage system, fuel cell, and vehicle for comparison to DOE’s Technical Targets using four drive cycles/profiles. Chemical hydrogen storage models have been developed for the Framework model for both exothermic and endothermic materials. Despite the utility of such models, they require that material researchers input system design specifications that cannot be easily estimated. To address this challenge, a design tool has been developed that allows researchers to directly enter kinetic and thermodynamic chemical hydrogen storage material properties into a simple sizing module that then estimates the systems parameters required to run the storage system model. Additionally, this design tool can be used as a standalone executable file to estimate the storage system mass and volume outside of the framework model and compare it to the DOE Technical Targets. These models will be explained and exercised with existing hydrogen storage materials.

hydrogen storage materials, Fuel Cell Vehicles, de↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships and the Decommissioning Estimate Analysis Library Estimating System - 20423

DOE-EM's Consolidated Business Center (EM-CBC) Office of Cost Estimating has developed a system of Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and Models to improve the reliability and efficiency of its estimates. The development builds on the multi-year process of collecting and organizing historical cost data from DOEEMs decommissioning projects and estimate model development to support project and program-level decommissioning estimates. The latest work has extended these models down to project scope element and component building area levels, allowing the actual costs of work for these estimate components to be assembled into estimates that reflect specific projects. The CERs have been incorporated into two estimator-friendly products - as cost libraries in the MII estimating program and as an MS Excel-based model, and are available for DOE federal staff use. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

What Is the Value of Alternative Methods for Estimating Ramping Needs?

Power system operators procure and deploy flexibility reserves or ramping products to address balancing needs caused by uncertainty and variability of load and generation. Existing methods estimate ramping needs using calendar information and historical forecast errors. Novel methods investigate if real-time weather information could inform ramping and other balancing requirements. This paper compares estimation methods for ramping requirements in theory and practice. The theoretical framework indicates when an alternative method could yield improved economic or reliability performance than existing methods by requiring lower or higher levels of ramping products. Preliminary simulations on a 118-bus test system for 4 days in May 2019 illustrate how system performance improves or deteriorates when ramping requirements are weather-informed (alternative) instead of calendar-based (baseline). Preliminary results suggest high variability in change of performance and underline the impact of additional factors, such as system conditions, on the realized performance change.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Based Network Parameter Estimation Using AMI Data

The expansion of distribution power system and the growing penetration of distributed energy resources present new challenges for situational awareness. Calibrating the extended system model with sensor measurements and maintaining the usability is critical for utilities. This paper presents a distribution network parameter estimation (DNPE) approach using machine learning (ML) and metering data that improve the quality of extended distribution power system modeling. The reliability model can improve the ability of endpoint data to be translated into network-level situational awareness in real time and help distribution system operators (DSOs) solve branch flow and voltage problems. In addition, a data analytic and automate processing scheme is proposed to improve the sensor data quality and prevent misleading information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with actual advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data on a real utility feeder model, while considering the higher penetration of photovoltaic power generation. The test of DNPE and study results are demonstrated in this paper.

Parameter estimation, machine learning, power dist↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shape-constrained Input Estimation for Efficient Multi-shaker Vibration Testing

Multi-shaker vibration testing is gaining interest from structural dynamics test engineers as it can provide a much more accurate match to complicated field vibration responses than traditional single-axis shaker tests. However, the force capabilities of the small modal shakers typically used in multi-shaker vibration tests has limited the achievable response levels. To date, most multi-shaker vibration tests have been performed using a variety of standard, commercially-available control systems. While these control systems are adequate for a wide range of multiple-input/multiple-output tests, their control algorithms have not been tailored for the specific problem of multi-shaker vibration tests: efficiently coordinating the various shakers to work together to achieve a desired response. Here, a new input estimation algorithm is developed and demonstrated using simulations and actual test data. This algorithm, dubbed shape-constrained input estimation, is shown to effectively coordinate multiple shakers using a set of constraint vectors based on the deflection shapes of the test structure. This is accomplished by using the singular vector shapes of the system frequency response matrix, which allows the constraint vectors to automatically change as a function of frequency. Simulation and test results indicate a significant reduction in the input forces required to achieve a desired response. Finally, the results indicate that shape-constrained input estimation is an effective method to achieve higher response levels from limited shaker forces which will enable higher level multi-shaker vibration tests to be performed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
DOE OSTI2016

Use of Pyranometers to Estimate PV Module Degradation Rates in the Field

Methodology is described that uses relative measurements to estimate the degradation rates of PV modules in the field. The importance of calibration and cleaning is discussed. The number of years of field measurements needed to measure degradation rates with data from the field is cut in half using relative comparisons.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying the impact of material-model error on macroscale quantities-of-interest using multiscale a posteriori error-estimation techniques

An a posteriori error-estimation framework is introduced to quantify and reduce modeling errors resulting from approximating complex mesoscale material behavior with a simpler macroscale model. Such errors may be prevalent when modeling welds and additively manufactured structures, where spatial variations and material textures may be present in the microstructure. We consider a case where a <100> fiber texture develops in the longitudinal scanning direction of a weld. Transversely isotropic elastic properties are obtained through homogenization of a microstructural model with this texture and are considered the reference weld properties within the error-estimation framework. Conversely, isotropic elastic properties are considered approximate weld properties since they contain no representation of texture. Errors introduced by using isotropic material properties to represent a weld are assessed through a quantified error bound in the elastic regime. Lastly, an adaptive error reduction scheme is used to determine the optimal spatial variation of the isotropic weld properties to reduce the error bound.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development of a Kalman filter estimator for simulation and control of particulate matter distribution of a diesel catalyzed particulate filter

The knowledge of the temperature and particulate matter mass distribution is essential for monitoring the performance and durability of a catalyzed particulate filter. A catalyzed particulate filter model was developed, and it showed capability to accurately predict temperature and particulate matter mass distribution and pressure drop across the catalyzed particulate filter. However, the high-fidelity model is computationally demanding. Therefore, a reduced order multi-zone particulate filter model was developed to reduce computational complexity with an acceptable level of accuracy. In order to develop a reduced order model, a parametric study was carried out to determine the number of zones necessary for aftertreatment control applications. The catalyzed particulate filter model was further reduced by carrying out a sensitivity study of the selected model assumptions. The reduced order multi-zone particulate filter model with 5 × 5 zones was selected to develop a catalyzed particulate filter state estimator considering its computational time and accuracy. Next, a Kalman filter–based catalyzed particulate filter estimator was developed to estimate unknown states of the catalyzed particulate filter such as temperature and particulate matter mass distribution and pressure drop (Δ P) using the sensor inputs to the engine electronic control unit and the reduced order multi-zone particulate filter model. A diesel oxidation catalyst estimator was also integrated with the catalyzed particulate filter estimator in order to provide estimates of diesel oxidation catalyst outlet concentrations of NO 2 and hydrocarbons and inlet temperature for the catalyzed particulate filter estimator. The combined diesel oxidation catalyst–catalyzed particulate filter estimator was validated for an active regeneration experiment. The validation results for catalyzed particulate filter temperature distribution showed that the root mean square temperature error by using the diesel oxidation catalyst–catalyzed particulate filter estimator is within 3.2 °C compared to the experimental data. Similarly, the Δ P estimator closely simulated the measured total Δ P and the estimated cake pressure drop error is within 0.2 kPa compared to the high-fidelity catalyzed particulate filter model.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2019

Power System Dynamic State Estimation: Motivations, Definitions, Methodologies and Future Work

This paper summarizes the technical activities of the Task Force on Power System Dynamic State and Parameter Estimation. This Task Force was established by the IEEE Working Group on State Estimation Algorithms to investigate the added benefits of dynamic state and parameter estimation for the enhancement of the reliability, security, and resilience of electric power systems. The motivations and engineering values of dynamic state estimation (DSE) are discussed in detail. Then, a set of potential applications that will rely on DSE is presented and discussed. Furthermore, a unified framework is proposed to clarify the important concepts related to DSE, forecasting-aided state estimation, tracking state estimation and static state estimation. An overview of the current progress in DSE and dynamic parameter estimation is provided. The paper also provides future research needs and directions for the power engineering community.

task force, dynamic state estimation, Parameter Es↗
DOE OSTI2018

A novel approach for estimating densities of secretive species from road-survey and spatial-movement data

Accurate estimates of population density are a critical component of effective wildlife conservation and management. However, many snake species are so secretive that their density cannot be determined using traditional methods such as capture–mark–recapture. Thus, the status of most terrestrial snake populations remains completely unknown. We developed a novel simulation-based technique for estimating density of secretive snakes that combined behavioural observations of snake road-crossing behaviour (crossing speed), effort-corrected road-survey data, and simulations of spatial movement patterns derived from radio-telemetry, without relying on mark–recapture. Here, we used radio-telemetry data to parameterise individual-based movement models that estimate the frequency with which individual snakes cross roads and used information on survey vehicle speed and snake crossing speed to determine the probability of detecting a snake, given that it crosses the road transect during a survey. Snake encounter frequencies during systematic road surveys were then interpreted in light of detection probabilities and simulation model results to estimate snake densities and to assess various factors likely to affect abundance estimates. We demonstrated the broad applicability of this approach through a case study of the imperiled southern hognose snake (Heterodon simus) in the North Carolina (USA) Sandhills. We estimated that H. simus occurs at average densities of 0.17 ha –1 in the North Carolina Sandhills and explored the sensitivity of this estimate to assumptions and variation in model parameters. Our novel method allowed us to generate the first abundance estimates for H. simus. We found that H. simus exists at low densities relative to congeners and other mid-sized snake species, raising concern that this species may not only have declined in geographic range, but may also occur at low densities or be declining in their strongholds, such as the North Carolina Sandhills. We present a framework for estimating density of species that have traditionally been considered too secretive to study at the population level. This method will greatly enhance our ability to study and manage a wide variety of snake species and could be applied to other secretive wildlife species that are most frequently encountered during road surveys.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Huffman, George J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of inflow uncertainties in laminar hypersonic double-cone experiments

We propose herein a probabilistic framework for assessing the consistency of an experimental dataset, i.e., whether the stated experimental conditions are consistent with the measurements provided. In case the dataset is inconsistent, our framework allows one to hypothesize and test sources of inconsistencies. This is crucial in model validation efforts. The framework relies on Bayesian inference to estimate experimental settings deemed uncertain, from measurements deemed accurate. The quality of the inferred variables is gauged by its ability to reproduce held-out experimental measurements. We test the correctness of the framework on three double-cone experiments conducted in the CUBRC Inc.'s LENS-I shock tunnel, which have also been numerically simulated successfully. Thereafter, we use the framework to investigate two double-cone experiments (executed in the LENS-XX shock tunnel) which have encountered difficulties when used in model validation exercises. We detect an inconsistency with one of the LENS-XX experiments. In addition, we hypothesize two causes for our inability to simulate LEXS-XX experiments accurately and test them using our framework. We find that there is no single cause that explains all the discrepancies between model predictions and experimental data, but different causes explain different discrepancies, to larger or smaller extent. We end by proposing that uncertainty quantification methods be used more widely to understand experiments and characterize facilities, and we cite three different methods to do so, the third of which we present in this paper.

Thermophysics↗
NASA NTRS1986

Crop acreage estimation using a Landsat-based estimator as an auxiliary variable

The problem of improving upon the ground survey estimates of crop acreages by utilizing Landsat data is addressed. Three estimators, called regression, ratio, and stratified ratio, are studied for bias and variance, and their relative efficiencies are compared. The approach is to formulate analytically the estimation problem that utilizes ground survey data, as collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Landsat data, which provide complete coverage for an area of interest, and then to conduct simulation studies. It is shown over a wide range of parametric conditions that the regression estimator is the most efficient unless there is a low correlation between the actual and estimated crop acreages in the sampled area segments, in which case the ratio and stratified ratio estimators are better. Furthermore, it is seen that the regression estimator is potentially biased due to estimating the regression coefficient from the training sample segments. Estimation of the variance of the regression estimator is also investigated. Two variance estimators are considered, the large sample variance estimator and an alternative estimator suggested by Cochran. The large sample estimate of variance is found to be biased and inferior to the Cochran estimate for small sample sizes.

Chhikara, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimating Uncertainty in GPCP and TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimates

One of the high-priority problems in satellite precipitation estimation is developing algorithms for estimating the errors in precipitation retrievals by individual sensors and subsequent multi-satellite combinations. Classically, we distinguish between "random" and "bias" errors, which do and do not, respectively average to zero over a "big enough" time/space sample. The current operational GPCP and TRMM multi-satellite algorithms are nearly unique in estimating random error for the monthly precipitation estimates from individual sensor systems (including gauge), following Huffman, and then making multi-sensor combinations. No routinely operational global precipitation produces estimates of bias error. Subsequently, a similar scheme has been followed to provide random error estimates for the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) being computed in real time and after real time for TRMM. The Huffman algorithm for random error is briefly reviewed, including a discussion of the limitations imposed on the algorithm by standard monthly precipitation data sets. Starting from a very simple theoretical treatment of the histogram of precipitation samples in a month, an equation is developed that depends on the estimated average precipitation rate for the month, the number of samples in the month, and two constants. The constants are set separately for each source of precipitation estimate (such as "raingauge") by calibration at selected ground sites. We discuss recent work validating the random error estimates to highlight the successes and limitations of this first-generation approach. We then consider what information is needed from the individual sensor algorithms to facilitate additional accuracy in the estimation of random errors across the time/space span of climate regimes which a global estimation system must handle. In addition, the thorny issue of estimating bias is raised. Finally, the role of error estimates (and the qualitative errors!) in creating combinations of precipitation estimates from different individual sensors is discussed. This issue is particularly important when fine scales in space and time are being considered, say the 0.25 x 0.25-deg 3-hourly estimates in the MPA.

Huffman, G. J.↗