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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Improving and Expanding NASA Software Cost Estimation Methods

Estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop better models and reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods for cost estimation, there is very little focus on the use of cost models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize the results of our research in developing an analogy method for estimating NASA spacecraft flight software using spectral clustering on system characteristics (symbolic nonnumerical data) and evaluate its performance by comparing it to a number of the most commonly used estimation methods. The strengths and weaknesses of each method based on their performance are also discussed. The paper concludes with an overview of the analogy estimation tool (ASCoT) developed for use within NASA that implements the recommended analogy algorithm.

Hihn, Jairus↗
DOE OSTI2022

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Joseph Henry Frisbee↗
NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of Aircraft Conceptual Design Weight Estimation Methods to the Flight Optimization System

Weight estimation is critical in the aircraft conceptual design process. The Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) is an aircraft conceptual design tool that has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate at NASA Langley Research Center. FLOPS includes multiple modules that represent aircraft design disciplines. The FLOPS weight module includes estimation methods that are similar in nature to other regression based aircraft preliminary weight estimation methods, however the FLOPS methods were created to use a minimum number of input parameters to limit the effort required by the designer to apply it. As FLOPS has recently been made publically available, this work compares the FLOPS weight estimation methods with several similar methods with the goal of explaining the differences in FLOPS, providing conceptual designers with a brief introduction to the method before attempting to apply it, and providing a reference to inform the development of future weight estimating relationships. In this paper, the Boeing 737-200 is used as a test case to highlight to differences and similarities in the methods.

Horvath, Bryce L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A TRMM Rainfall Estimation Method Applicable to Land Areas

Methods developed to estimate rain rate on a footprint scale over land with the satellite-borne multispectral dual-polarization Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) radiometer have met with limited success. Variability of surface emissivity on land and beam filling are commonly cited as the weaknesses of these methods. On the contrary, we contend a more significant reason for this lack of success is that the information content of spectral and polarization measurements of the SSM/I is limited. because of significant redundancy. As a result, the complex nature and vertical distribution C, of frozen and melting ice particles of different densities, sizes, and shapes cannot resolved satisfactorily. Extinction in the microwave region due to these complex particles can mask the extinction due to rain drops. Because of these reasons, theoretical models that attempt to retrieve rain rate do not succeed on a footprint scale. To illustrate the weakness of these models, as an example we can consider the brightness temperature measurement made by the radiometer in the 85 GHz channel (T85). Models indicate that T85 should be inversely related to the rain rate, because of scattering. However, rain rate derived from 15-minute rain gauges on land indicate that this is not true in a majority of footprints. This is also supported by the ship-borne radar observations of rain in the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) region over the ocean. Based on these observations. we infer that theoretical models that attempt to retrieve rain rate do not succeed on a footprint scale. We do not follow the above path of rain retrieval on a footprint scale. Instead, we depend on the limited ability of the microwave radiometer to detect the presence of rain. This capability is useful to determine the rain area in a mesoscale region. We find in a given rain event that this rain area is closely related to the mesoscale-average rain rate. Based on this observation, in this study we have developed a method to estimate the mesoscale-average rain rate over land utilizing microwave radiometer data. Because of the high degree of geographic and seasonal variability in the nature and intensity of rain, this method requires some tuning with 15-minute rain gauge data on land. After tuning the method, it can be applied to an independent set of rain events that are close in time and space. We find that the mesoscale rain rates retrieved over the period of a month on land with this method shows a correlation of about 0.85 with respect to the surface rain-gauge observations. This mesoscale-average rain rate estimation method can be useful to extend the spatial and temporal coverage of the rainfall data provided by the Precipitation Radar on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.

Prabhakara, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Evaluation and Application of Satellite-Based Latent Heating Profile Estimation Methods

In recent years, methods for estimating atmospheric latent heating vertical structure from both passive and active microwave remote sensing have matured to the point where quantitative evaluation of these methods is the next logical step. Two approaches for heating algorithm evaluation are proposed: First, application of heating algorithms to synthetic data, based upon cloud-resolving model simulations, can be used to test the internal consistency of heating estimates in the absence of systematic errors in physical assumptions. Second, comparisons of satellite-retrieved vertical heating structures to independent ground-based estimates, such as rawinsonde-derived analyses of heating, provide an additional test. The two approaches are complementary, since systematic errors in heating indicated by the second approach may be confirmed by the first. A passive microwave and combined passive/active microwave heating retrieval algorithm are evaluated using the described approaches. In general, the passive microwave algorithm heating profile estimates are subject to biases due to the limited vertical heating structure information contained in the passive microwave observations. These biases may be partly overcome by including more environment-specific a priori information into the algorithm s database of candidate solution profiles. The combined passive/active microwave algorithm utilizes the much higher-resolution vertical structure information provided by spaceborne radar data to produce less biased estimates; however, the global spatio-temporal sampling by spaceborne radar is limited. In the present study, the passive/active microwave algorithm is used to construct a more physically-consistent and environment-specific set of candidate solution profiles for the passive microwave algorithm and to help evaluate errors in the passive algorithm s heating estimates. Although satellite estimates of latent heating are based upon instantaneous, footprint- scale data, suppression of random errors requires averaging to at least half-degree resolution. Analysis of mesoscale and larger space-time scale phenomena based upon passive and passive/active microwave heating estimates from TRMM, SSMI, and AMSR data will be presented at the conference.

Olson, William S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search: an efficient and versatile quantum phase estimation method

Quantum phase estimation is one of the most powerful quantum primitives. This work proposes a new approach for the problem of multiple eigenvalue estimation: Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search (QMEGS). QMEGS leverages the Hadamard test circuit structure and only requires simple classical postprocessing. QMEGS is the first algorithm to simultaneously satisfy the following two properties: (1) It can achieve the Heisenberg-limited scaling without relying on any spectral gap assumption. (2) With a positive energy gap and additional assumptions on the initial state, QMEGS can estimate all dominant eigenvalues to ϵ accuracy utilizing a significantly reduced circuit depth compared to the standard quantum phase estimation algorithm. In the most favorable scenario, the maximal runtime can be reduced to as low as log(1/ϵ). This implies that QMEGS serves as an efficient and versatile approach, achieving the best-known results for both gapped and gapless systems. Numerical results validate the efficiency of our proposed algorithm in various regimes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

A three-point velocity estimation method for two-dimensional coarse-grained imaging data

Time delay and velocity estimation methods have been widely studied subjects in the context of signal processing, with applications in many different fields of physics. The velocity of waves or coherent fluctuation structures is commonly estimated as the distance between two measurement points divided by the time lag that maximizes the cross correlation function between the measured signals, but this is demonstrated to result in erroneous estimates for two spatial dimensions. We present an improved method to accurately estimate both components of the velocity vector, relying on three non-aligned measurement points. We introduce a stochastic process describing the fluctuations as a superposition of uncorrelated pulses moving in two dimensions. Using this model, we show that the three-point velocity estimation method, using time delays calculated through cross correlations, yields the exact velocity components when all pulses have the same velocity. The two- and three-point methods are tested on synthetic data generated from realizations of such processes for which the underlying velocity components are known. The results reveal the superiority of the three-point technique. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the velocity estimation on gas puff imaging data of strongly intermittent plasma fluctuations due to the radial motion of coherent, blob-like structures at the boundary of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak.

Materials Science↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

Parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase are developed. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance, and time. The relationship between weight and cost is examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested statistically against a historical data base of major research and development programs. It is concluded that the technique presented is sound, but that it must be refined in order to produce acceptable cost estimates.

Cyr, Kelley↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Lamaire, Richard Orville↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Flight Optimization System Weights Estimation Method

FLOPS has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center. It was created for rapid conceptual aircraft design and advanced technology impact assessments. FLOPS is a single computer program that includes weights estimation, aerodynamics estimation, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data scaling and interpolation, detailed mission performance analysis, takeoff and landing performance analysis, noise footprint estimation, and cost analysis. It is well known as a baseline and common denominator for aircraft design studies. FLOPS is capable of calibrating a model to known aircraft data, making it useful for new aircraft and modifications to existing aircraft. The weight estimation method in FLOPS is known to be of high fidelity for conventional tube with wing aircraft and a substantial amount of effort went into its development. This report serves as a comprehensive documentation of the FLOPS weight estimation method. The development process is presented with the weight estimation process.

Wells, Douglas P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of sampling frequency and estimation method on phosphorus load uncertainty in the Western Lake Erie Basin, Ohio, USA

Accurate estimates of nutrient loads are necessary to identify critical source areas and quantify the impact of management practices on pollutant export. Previous studies have investigated nutrient load estimate uncertainty, but they often focus on nutrient loads estimated using an interpolation method for large-scale watersheds with short-term datasets. The study objective was to quantify uncertainty in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS) load estimates from two small (<10 3 km 2 ) agricultural watersheds in the western Lake Erie Basin resulting from different sampling frequencies. Each watershed had high temporal resolution datasets of discharge (15 min) and nutrient concentration (1 to 3 samples per day) collected over a 30-year period (1990–2020). Firstly, SRP, TP, and SS loads were calculated using the high temporal resolution datasets, which was assumed as “true loads”. Secondly, the high temporal concentration data were decomposed to semiweekly, weekly, biweekly, and monthly sampling and annual loads were estimated using four common load estimation methods to assess the effect of sampling frequency and load estimation method on load estimate error. Across the four different methods, the composite method had the lowest relative root mean square and absolute bias, but the rectangular interpolation method was the most precise. Furthermore, even with semiweekly sampling, the composite method resulted in an unacceptable level of precision (average imprecision = 39 %), while the interpolation method resulted in an unacceptable bias (average absolute bias = 16 %). Because neither method could provide acceptable accuracy and precision at the lowest decrease in sampling (e.t. semiweekly sampling), continued daily sampling is recommended in these watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

The development of parametric cost estimating methods for advanced space systems in the conceptual design phase is discussed. The process of identifying variables which drive cost and the relationship between weight and cost are discussed. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested using a historical data base of research and development projects.

Cyr, Kelley↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of nonflow estimation methods and uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Collective anisotropic flow, where particles are correlated over the entire event, is a prominent phenomenon in relativistic heavy-ion collisions and is sensitive to the properties of the matter created in those collisions. It is often measured by two- and multi-particle correlations and is therefore contaminated by nonflow, those genuine few-body correlations unrelated to the global event-wise correlations. Many methods have been devised to estimate nonflow contamination with various degrees of successes and difficulties. Here, we review those methods pedagogically, discussing the pros and cons of each method, and give examples of ballpark estimate of nonflow contamination and associated uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. We hope such a review of the various nonflow estimation methods in a single place would prove helpful to future researches.

Feng, Yicheng (ORCID:0000000169010870)↗
NASA NTRS1976

Practical aspects of a maximum likelihood estimation method to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data

A maximum likelihood estimation method was applied to flight data and procedures to facilitate the routine analysis of a large amount of flight data were described. Techniques that can be used to obtain stability and control derivatives from aircraft maneuvers that are less than ideal for this purpose are described. The techniques involve detecting and correcting the effects of dependent or nearly dependent variables, structural vibration, data drift, inadequate instrumentation, and difficulties with the data acquisition system and the mathematical model. The use of uncertainty levels and multiple maneuver analysis also proved to be useful in improving the quality of the estimated coefficients. The procedures used for editing the data and for overall analysis are also discussed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent Development of Frequency Estimation Methods for Future Smart Grid

The frequency estimated by the Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) is a critical index of power system status and supports many smart grid applications. The future smart grid features high penetration of renewables and more fast-moving power electronics inverters but raises challenges to the reliable frequency estimation. This article presents three methods to address these challenges. First, an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm was developed to track the fast-changing frequency in system dynamics. Second, we propose a technology that can tolerate the system transient and suppress the outliers. Third, an algorithm was developed to export high time-resolution frequency estimations with minimum computational effort. All of the proposed methods are realized in hardware and compared with classical frequency estimation methods. The testing results indicate that the proposed methods have excellent performance. They can be used in future PMUs and provide reliable and high time resolution data for smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗