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At least 19 records

A Feynman-Kac based numerical method for the exit time probability of a class of transport problems

The exit time probability, which gives the likelihood that an initial condition leaves a prescribed region of the phase space of a dynamical system at, or before, a given time, is arguably one of the most natural and important transport problems. In this work, we present an accurate and efficient numerical method for computing this probability for systems described by non-autonomous (time-dependent) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or their equivalent Fokker-Planck partial differential equations. The method is based on the direct approximation of the Feynman-Kac formula that establishes a link between the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation and the forward SDE. The Feynman-Kac formula is approximated using the Gauss-Hermite quadrature rules and piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomials, and a GPU accelerated matrix representation is used to compute the entire time evolution of the exit time probability using a single pass of the algorithm. The method is unconditionally stable, exhibits second order convergence in space, first order convergence in time, and it is straightforward to parallelize. Applications are presented to the advection diffusion of a passive tracer in a fluid flow exhibiting chaotic advection, and to the runaway acceleration of electrons in a plasma in the presence of an electric field, collisions, and radiation damping. Benchmarks against analytical solutions as well as comparisons with explicit and implicit finite difference standard methods for the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗

Monte Carlo simulations of neutrino and charged lepton propagation in the Earth with nuPyProp

An accurate modeling of neutrino flux attenuation and the distribution of leptons they produce in transit through the Earth is an essential component to determine neutrino flux sensitivities of underground, sub-orbital and space-based detectors. Through neutrino oscillations over cosmic distances, astrophysical neutrino sources are expected to produce nearly equal fluxes of electron, muon and tau neutrinos. Of particular interest are tau neutrinos that interact in the Earth at modest slant depths to produce leptons. Some leptons emerge from the Earth and decay in the atmosphere to produce extensive air showers. Future balloon-borne and satellite-based opticalCherenkov neutrino telescopes will be sensitive to upward air showers from tau neutrino induced lepton decays. We present nuPyProp, a python code that is part of the nuSpaceSim package. nuPyProp generates look-up tables for exit probabilities and energy distributions for (see paper for proper equation) propagation in the Earth. This flexible code runs with either stochastic or continuous electromagnetic energy losses for the lepton transit through the Earth. Current neutrino cross section models and energy loss models are included along with templates for user input of other models. Results from nuPyProp are compared with other recent simulation packages for neutrino and charged lepton propagation. Sources of modeling uncertainties are described and quantified.

Yosui Akaike↗

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A 2 component X-ray spectrum from SMC X-1

Both HEAO-1 A2 and Einstein SSS observations of SMC X-1 are presented. An unpulsed soft component is found with a blackbody temperature of 0.16 keV and an area for the emission region of 10 to the 15th power sq cm to 10 to the 17th power sq cm. The hard X-ray component is pulsed; the phase averaged spectrum is a power law with alpha approximately 0.5 keV up to 17 keV above which it steepens. The SSS sets an upper limit of 4 x 10 to the 21st power H cm/2 to any absorption and is consistent with that expected from the wind of SK160. Absorption dips with a timescale of several hundred seconds are seen immediately following an eclipse exit and are probably caused by inhomogeneities in the wind of SK160.

Marshall, F. E.↗

A two-component X-ray spectrum from SMC X-1

HEAO 1 A-2 and Einstein Solid State Spectrometer (SSS) observations of SMC X-1 are presented. An unpulsed soft component is found with a blackbody temperature of 0.16 keV and an area for the emission region of 10 to the 15th to 10 to the 17th sq cm. The hard X-ray component is pulsed; the phase-averaged spectrum is a power law with alpha of about 0.5 up to 17 keV, above which it steepens. The SSS sets an upper limit of less than 4 x 10 to the 21st H/sq cm to any absorption, and is consistent with that expected from the wind of Sk 160. Absorption dips with a timescale of several hundred seconds are seen immediately following an eclipse exit, and are probably caused by inhomogeneities in the wind of Sk 160.

Marshall, F. E.↗

Continuing Development of the Nuclear Data Processing Code AMPX [Poster]

The ENDF/B-VIII.1 evaluation library has seen a great growth in the thermal neutron scattering sub-library. The SCALE code system has traditionally approached CE transport by assuming that the CE library on disk represented the fully expanded cumulative probability distributions, conditional on exiting angle and marginal on exiting energy. While this is a complete description of the data, it comes at the potential cost of large amounts of on-disk storage. This approach was strained by several TSL files in ENDF/B-VIII.1, such as graphite, which contained data for a large number of Bragg edges. In the fully expanded probability distributions, this was found to be a disproportionately large fraction of the SCALE CE library.

GNDS↗

Converged three-dimensional quantum mechanical reaction probabilities for the F + H2 reaction on a potential energy surface with realistic entrance and exit channels and comparisons to results for three other surfaces

Accurate three-dimensional quantum mechanical reaction probabilities are presented for the reaction F + H2 yields HF + H on the new global potential energy surface 5SEC for total angular momentum J = 0 over a range of translational energies from 0.15 to 4.6 kcal/mol. It is found that the v-prime = 3 HF vibrational product state has a threshold as low as for v-prime = 2.

Lynch, Gillian C.↗

Transport and losses of fusion-born alpha particles in the presence of tearing modes using the new Toroidal Accelerated Particle Simulator (TAPaS)

Here, the transport and losses of fusion-born alpha particles are studied in the presence of a single-helicity tearing mode, characterized by (m = 2, n = 1). The analysis is performed by means of the recently developed Toroidal Accelerated Particle Simulator (TAPaS). Although such modes have usually been believed to result only in a local flattening of the radial profiles, it is shown that the density profile can exhibit a global modification leading to significant losses of alpha particles. This is due to the fact that, although the magnetic field does not exhibit any chaotic behaviour, the trajectories of alpha particles do, as revealed by their Poincaré maps. Such results are in qualitative agreement with past observations and simulations of energetic particles generated by neutral beam injection in TFTR, DIII-D and AUG tokamaks. In-depth analysis is carried out to characterize the impact of the tearing mode on the transport and losses of fusion-born alpha-particles with a realistic density profile. The impact of the amplitude is evidenced. Moreover, the effect of the island rotation frequency is assessed based on a detailed analysis of the linear resonances in phase-space, in agreement with the simulation results. Finally, the probability density function of the exit time has been computed and the transport of alpha particles has been found to be anomalous.

anomalous transport↗

A combined Eulerian-Lagrangian two-phase flow analysis of SSME HPOTP nozzle plug trajectories. II - Results

An analysis of Space Shuttle Main Engine high-pressure oxygen turbopump nozzle plug trajectories has been performed, using a Lagrangian method to track nozzle plug particles expelled from a turbine through a high Reynolds number flow in a turnaround duct with turning vanes. Axisymmetric and parametric analyses reveal that if nozzle plugs exited the turbine they would probably impact the LOX heat exchanger with impact velocities which are significantly less than the penetration velocity. The finding that only slight to moderate damage will result from nozzle plug failure in flight is supported by the results of a hot-fire engine test with induced nozzle plug failures.

Mcconnaughey, P. K.↗

The G1 restriction point as critical regulator of neocortical neuronogenesis

Neuronogenesis in the pseudostratified ventricular epithelium is the initial process in a succession of histogenetic events which give rise to the laminate neocortex. Here we review experimental findings in mouse which support the thesis that the restriction point of the G1 phase of the cell cycle is the critical point of regulation of the overall neuronogenetic process. The neuronogenetic interval in mouse spans 6 days. In the course of these 6 days the founder population and its progeny execute 11 cell cycles. With each successive cycle there is an increase in the fraction of postmitotic cells which leaves the cycle (the Q fraction) and also an increase in the length of the cell cycle due to an increase in the length of the G1 phase of the cycle. Q corresponds to the probability that postmitotic cells will exit the cycle at the restriction point of the G1 phase of the cell cycle. Q increases non-linearly, but the rate of change of Q with cycle (i.e., the first derivative) over the course of the neuronogenetic interval is a constant, k, which appears to be set principally by cell internal mechanisms which are species specific. Q also seems to be modulated, but at low amplitude, by a balance of mitogenic and antimitogenic influences acting from without the cell. We suggest that intracellular signal transduction systems control a general advance of Q during development and thereby determine the general developmental plan (i.e., cell number and laminar composition) of the neocortex and that external mitogens and anti-mitogens modulate this advance regionally and temporally and thereby produce regional modifications of the general plan.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗

Coastal Zone Color Scanner atmospheric correction - Influence of El Chichon

The addition of an El Chichon-like aerosol layer in the stratosphere is shown to have very little effect on the basic CZCS atmospheric correction algorithm. The additional stratospheric aerosol is found to increase the total radiance exiting the atmosphere, thereby increasing the probability that the sensor will saturate. It is suggested that in the absence of saturation the correction algorithm should perform as well as in the absence of the stratospheric layer.

Gordon, Howard R.↗

Initial study on cross-section generation requirements for a PBR equilibrium core

A Serpent model of the equilibrium core HTR-PM small modular nuclear reactor in China, was developed for use in cross-section preparation studies in order to guide methods development for the Griffin reactor multiphysics application. The model includes detailed isotopics for 10 distinct pebble burnup groups in 126 core zones with unique fuel and moderator temperatures obtained from a coupled neutronics-thermal-fluids equilibrium core calculation using Griffin-Pronghorn. A sensitivity study of the fuel and moderator temperatures for various core regions was performed with the MOOSE stochastic tools. The results show that the uncertainties are, not unexpectedly, dominated by the value of the fluid temperature and that the power level, heat transfer coefficient and effective conduction to neighboring pebbles and fluid constitute, at best, second order effects. The temperature uncertainty range varies from 28 K to 57 K between the core entry and exit planes, respectively, but these values are probably higher. We still have to quantify the significance of these uncertainties in the preparation of cross-sections in future work. In addition, we verified that the effective pebble approximation used in the PEBBED and V.S.O.P. computer codes works well for the preparation of region averaged cross-sections. Nevertheless, there are some discrepancies in the cross-sections when compared to the multi-pebble model, which could affect the prediction of peak values and the depletion calculation. We conclude that is highly desirable for future studies with Griffin to be able to handle both the 'effective' pebble approximation and the multi-pebble approach for various pebble burnup groups. This enables Griffin users with the flexibility to perform higher-fidelity studies. Finally, we initiated the preparation of cross-sections for various core regions from the full core Serpent reference model. We quantified the differences in 26 group cross-sections from infinite domain models versus the full core approach. These reference cross-sections will serve to verify the double heterogeneity, self-shielding, and spectrum-correction methods in Griffin. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Vortex simulation of the pressure field of a jet

Fluctuations of the pressure field of a jet are simulated numerically by a flow model consisting of axisymmetric vortex rings with viscous cores submerged in an inviscid uniform stream. Vortex shedding time intervals, randomly created to imitate the time-history characteristics of the pressure signals of a jet, are generated based on a probability distribution of the intervals between successive pressure peaks obtained from experiments. It is found that, up to five diameters downstream of the jet exit, the characteristics of the pressure fluctuations and the most probable time intervals between experimental and numerical results show good qualitative agreements. The role played by the axisymmetric vortex model in pressure field as well as extensions of the model is also discussed.

Fung, Y. T.↗

Navigation systems requirement analysis for the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE)

Navigation requirements for Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) spacecraft passing through the earth's atmosphere have been studied using a 6-DOF dynamics model, an Inertial Measurement Unit model, a baseline AFE aeropass flight guidance logic, and a baseline AFE aeropass control model. The goal of this study is to determine, in a statistical sense, how much flight path angle error can be tolerated at Entry Interface (EI) and still have acceptable delta-V requirements at exit to position the AFE spacecraft for recovery. Assuming there is fuel available to produce 370 ft/sec of delta-V at atmospheric exit, a 3-sigma standard deviation in flight path angle error of 0.04 degree at EI would result in a 98 percent probability of mission success. In addition to the required delta-V at exit, other aeropass parameters such as maximum aeroheating rate, fuel consumption, and the science requirements affecting mission success are also investigated.

Huang, K. H.↗

Investigation of scene identification algorithms for radiation budget measurements

The computation of Earth radiation budget from satellite measurements requires the identification of the scene in order to select spectral factors and bidirectional models. A scene identification procedure is developed for AVHRR SW and LW data by using two radiative transfer models. These AVHRR GAC pixels are then attached to corresponding ERBE pixels and the results are sorted into scene identification probability matrices. These scene intercomparisons show that there generally is a higher tendency for underestimation of cloudiness over ocean at high cloud amounts, e.g., mostly cloudy instead of overcast, partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy, for the ERBE relative to the AVHRR results. Reasons for this are explained. Preliminary estimates of the errors of exitances due to scene misidentification demonstrates the high dependency on the probability matrices. While the longwave error can generally be neglected the shortwave deviations have reached maximum values of more than 12% of the respective exitances.

Diekmann, F. J.↗

Investigation of scene identification algorithms for radiation budget measurements

The computation of earth radiation budget from satellite measurements requires the identification of the scene in order to select spectral factors and bidirectional models. A scene identification procedure is developed for AVHRR SW and LW data by using two radiative transfer models. These AVHRR GAC pixels are then attached to corresponding ERBE pixels and the results are sorted into scene identification probability matrices. These scene intercomparisons show that there generally is a higher tendency for underestimation of cloudiness over ocean at high cloud amounts, e.g., mostly cloudy instead of overcast, partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy, for the ERBE relative to the AVHRR results. Reasons for this are explained. Preliminary estimates of the errors of exitances due to scene misidentification demonstrates the high dependency on the probability matrices. While the longwave error can generally be neglected the shortwave deviations have reached maximum values of more than 12 percent of the respective exitances.

Diekmann, F. J.↗