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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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A Feynman-Kac based numerical method for the exit time probability of a class of transport problems

The exit time probability, which gives the likelihood that an initial condition leaves a prescribed region of the phase space of a dynamical system at, or before, a given time, is arguably one of the most natural and important transport problems. In this work, we present an accurate and efficient numerical method for computing this probability for systems described by non-autonomous (time-dependent) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or their equivalent Fokker-Planck partial differential equations. The method is based on the direct approximation of the Feynman-Kac formula that establishes a link between the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation and the forward SDE. The Feynman-Kac formula is approximated using the Gauss-Hermite quadrature rules and piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomials, and a GPU accelerated matrix representation is used to compute the entire time evolution of the exit time probability using a single pass of the algorithm. The method is unconditionally stable, exhibits second order convergence in space, first order convergence in time, and it is straightforward to parallelize. Applications are presented to the advection diffusion of a passive tracer in a fluid flow exhibiting chaotic advection, and to the runaway acceleration of electrons in a plasma in the presence of an electric field, collisions, and radiation damping. Benchmarks against analytical solutions as well as comparisons with explicit and implicit finite difference standard methods for the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Continuing Development of the Nuclear Data Processing Code AMPX [Poster]

The ENDF/B-VIII.1 evaluation library has seen a great growth in the thermal neutron scattering sub-library. The SCALE code system has traditionally approached CE transport by assuming that the CE library on disk represented the fully expanded cumulative probability distributions, conditional on exiting angle and marginal on exiting energy. While this is a complete description of the data, it comes at the potential cost of large amounts of on-disk storage. This approach was strained by several TSL files in ENDF/B-VIII.1, such as graphite, which contained data for a large number of Bragg edges. In the fully expanded probability distributions, this was found to be a disproportionately large fraction of the SCALE CE library.

GNDS↗

Transport and losses of fusion-born alpha particles in the presence of tearing modes using the new Toroidal Accelerated Particle Simulator (TAPaS)

Here, the transport and losses of fusion-born alpha particles are studied in the presence of a single-helicity tearing mode, characterized by (m = 2, n = 1). The analysis is performed by means of the recently developed Toroidal Accelerated Particle Simulator (TAPaS). Although such modes have usually been believed to result only in a local flattening of the radial profiles, it is shown that the density profile can exhibit a global modification leading to significant losses of alpha particles. This is due to the fact that, although the magnetic field does not exhibit any chaotic behaviour, the trajectories of alpha particles do, as revealed by their Poincaré maps. Such results are in qualitative agreement with past observations and simulations of energetic particles generated by neutral beam injection in TFTR, DIII-D and AUG tokamaks. In-depth analysis is carried out to characterize the impact of the tearing mode on the transport and losses of fusion-born alpha-particles with a realistic density profile. The impact of the amplitude is evidenced. Moreover, the effect of the island rotation frequency is assessed based on a detailed analysis of the linear resonances in phase-space, in agreement with the simulation results. Finally, the probability density function of the exit time has been computed and the transport of alpha particles has been found to be anomalous.

anomalous transport↗

Initial study on cross-section generation requirements for a PBR equilibrium core

A Serpent model of the equilibrium core HTR-PM small modular nuclear reactor in China, was developed for use in cross-section preparation studies in order to guide methods development for the Griffin reactor multiphysics application. The model includes detailed isotopics for 10 distinct pebble burnup groups in 126 core zones with unique fuel and moderator temperatures obtained from a coupled neutronics-thermal-fluids equilibrium core calculation using Griffin-Pronghorn. A sensitivity study of the fuel and moderator temperatures for various core regions was performed with the MOOSE stochastic tools. The results show that the uncertainties are, not unexpectedly, dominated by the value of the fluid temperature and that the power level, heat transfer coefficient and effective conduction to neighboring pebbles and fluid constitute, at best, second order effects. The temperature uncertainty range varies from 28 K to 57 K between the core entry and exit planes, respectively, but these values are probably higher. We still have to quantify the significance of these uncertainties in the preparation of cross-sections in future work. In addition, we verified that the effective pebble approximation used in the PEBBED and V.S.O.P. computer codes works well for the preparation of region averaged cross-sections. Nevertheless, there are some discrepancies in the cross-sections when compared to the multi-pebble model, which could affect the prediction of peak values and the depletion calculation. We conclude that is highly desirable for future studies with Griffin to be able to handle both the 'effective' pebble approximation and the multi-pebble approach for various pebble burnup groups. This enables Griffin users with the flexibility to perform higher-fidelity studies. Finally, we initiated the preparation of cross-sections for various core regions from the full core Serpent reference model. We quantified the differences in 26 group cross-sections from infinite domain models versus the full core approach. These reference cross-sections will serve to verify the double heterogeneity, self-shielding, and spectrum-correction methods in Griffin. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Initial study on cross section generation requirements for a PBR equilibrium core

A Serpent model of the HTR-PM equilibrium core was developed for use in cross section prepa-ration studies in order to guide methods development for the Griffin reactor multiphysics applica-tion. The model includes detailed isotopics for 10 distinct pebble burnup groups in 126 core zoneswith unique fuel and moderator temperatures obtained from a coupled neutronics-thermal-fluidsequilibrium core calculation using Griffin-Pronghorn. A sensitivity study of the fuel and mod-erator temperatures for various core regions was performed with the MOOSE stochastic tools.The results show that the uncertainties are, not unexpectedly, dominated by the value of the fluidtemperature and that the power level, heat transfer coefficient and effective conduction to neigh-boring pebbles and fluid constitute, at best, second order effects. The temperature uncertaintyrange varies from 28 K to 57 K at the core entry and exit planes, respectively, but these val-ues are probably higher. We still have to quantify the significance of these uncertainties in thepreparation of cross sections, which will be postponed for future work. In addition, we verifythat the single effective pebble approach works well for the preparation of region averaged crosssections in the infinite domain approximation. Nevertheless, there are significant discrepanciesin the cross sections when compared to the multi-pebble model. This could affect the predictionof peak values and in the depletion calculation. We conclude that is highly desirable for futurestudies with Griffin to be able to handle both the ?effective? pebble approximation and the multi-pebble approach for the various pebble burnup groups. This enables Griffin users the flexibilityto perform higher-fidelity studies. Finally, we initiate the preparation of cross sections for variouscore regions from the full core Serpent reference model. We quantify the differences in 26 groupcross sections from infinite domain models. These reference cross sections will serve to validatethe double heterogeneity, self-shielding, and spectrum-correction methods in Griffin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of a new control rod drive mechanism design for the ISU AGN-201M reactor

The Aerojet General Nucleonics (AGN) model 201-Modified, known as the AGN-201M reactor, plays an essential role in the educational and research activities at Idaho State University (ISU). The ISU AGN-201M's original Control Rod Drive Mechanism (CRDM) has been in operation for more than fifty years with no large-scale redesigns. The CRDM is required to eject the fuel rods within one second during a SCRAM event (also known as a 'reactor trip') and adjust the control rods' insertion speed, and keeps the rod insertion sequence correct. The existing control rod drive mechanisms meet these criteria but experience a few concerns due to aging. Concerns include complex maintenance and costly repairs for old electromechanical components, rod position feedback errors, and the impediment of the plate during a SCRAM due to binding of the lead screws of the existing mechanism. During a binding event, the drive mechanism becomes locked, preventing the control rod's magnetic plate from moving in or out under the reactor's normal and emergency operating conditions. Although, the binding has no effect on the ability of the rod to exit the core during the SCRAM. To counteract the concerns and issues with the current CRDM, a new design has been proposed using newer components and a simplified design. The new design utilizes more advanced electric and mechanical components that are commercially available. The new CRDM system is divided into four main aspects: (1) control rod movement design (motor, lead screw, guide rods), (2) control rod ejection (springs, electromagnet), (3) control rod position and feedback (position transducer, microswitches), and (4) material selection and structural analysis. The new design aims to reduce the overall complexity and probability of failure to improve the reactor's overall reliability. With proper material selection and improved structural design, the new drives are lighter with little to no change in structural integrity. The new control rod drive mechanism eliminates binding scenarios by using a single lead screw and implementing additional guide rods. An advanced linear position sensor and microswitches replace the existing and aging synchro system for accurate rod position feedback resulting in better reactivity control. The new design meets the reactor's operational limits by having an average reactivity insertion of 0.065% Δk/k per second, which corresponds to a total control rod insertion time of 19.23 s, while the control rod's ejection time remains less than one second during a SCRAM event. The new design ensures the reactor's long-term viability for educational and research activities by increasing the reliability and safety of operation for years to come.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Disturbance of hibernating bats due to researchers entering caves to conduct hibernacula surveys

Estimating population changes of bats is important for their conservation. Population estimates of hibernating bats are often calculated by researchers entering hibernacula to count bats; however, the disturbance caused by these surveys can cause bats to arouse unnaturally, fly, and lose body mass. We conducted 17 hibernacula surveys in 9 caves from 2013 to 2018 and used acoustic detectors to document cave-exiting bats the night following our surveys. We predicted that cave-exiting flights (i.e., bats flying out and then back into caves) of Townsend’s big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii) and western small-footed myotis (Myotis ciliolabrum) would be higher the night following hibernacula surveys than on nights following no surveys. Those two species, however, did not fly out of caves more than predicted the night following 82% of surveys. Nonetheless, the activity of bats flying out of caves following surveys was related to a disturbance factor (i.e., number of researchers × total time in a cave). We produced a parsimonious model for predicting the probability of Townsend’s big-eared bats flying out of caves as a function of disturbance factor and ambient temperature. That model can be used to help biologists plan for the number of researchers, and the length of time those individuals are in a cave to minimize disturbing bats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Why are cell populations maintained via multiple compartments?

We consider the maintenance of ‘product’ cell populations from ‘progenitor’ cells via a sequence of one or more cell types, or compartments, where each cell’s fate is chosen stochastically. If there is only one compartment then large amplification, that is, a large ratio of product cells to progenitors comes with disadvantages. The product cell population is dominated by large families (cells descended from the same progenitor) and many generations separate, on average, product cells from progenitors. These disadvantages are avoided using suitably constructed sequences of compartments: the amplification factor of a sequence is the product of the amplification factors of each compartment, while the average number of generations is a sum over contributions from each compartment. Passing through multiple compartments is, in fact, an efficient way to maintain a product cell population from a small flux of progenitors, avoiding excessive clonality and minimizing the number of rounds of division en route. We use division, exit and death rates, estimated from measurements of single-positive thymocytes, to choose illustrative parameter values in the single-compartment case. We also consider a five-compartment model of thymocyte differentiation, from double-negative precursors to single-positive product cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Electron beam irradiation effects on bulk metals: a comparative study of polycrystalline versus single-crystalline structures

This study investigates the effects of electron beam (e-beam) irradiation on the mechanical and structural properties of eight bulk metallic samples, comprising both polycrystalline (PC) and single-crystalline (SC) forms of Ni, Cr, V, and Ti. These metals were evaluated as potential candidates for beam exit windows in high-power (MW-class) particle accelerators. The primary objective is to identify metals capable of withstanding the conditions of high-power/MW-class e-beam accelerators and serve effectively as exit windows. Selection criteria were based on each metal’s intrinsic properties, power dissipation capability, and irradiation-induced changes in mechanical behavior, including hardness, elastic modulus, and defect density. Comprehensive characterization was conducted using field-emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM–EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), selected area electron diffraction (SAED), and nanoindentation, performed both before and after exposure to a ~¿66 kGy dose from a 10 MeV e-beam accelerator. Results revealed that e-beam irradiation induced hardening in PC Ni, whereas PC Ti, commonly used in beam exit windows, exhibited softening. The observed softening in PC Ti is attributed to grain coarsening, elongation, and the formation of twins and twin boundaries, in contrast to the smaller, compressed grains in the pristine (Pr) PC Ti samples, consistent with the Hall–Petch relationship. The stresses due to twinning are small and insignificant in influencing the overall hardening of the PC Ti irradiated sample when compared to the stresses due to the dislocation density. Conversely, SC Ti samples exhibited irradiation-induced hardening. The SC Ti irradiated samples developed additional irradiation-induced modifications in crystallographic texture of (100), (101), (110), (200), (112), (004), and (211) as evidenced from the XRD results, which could probably explain the hardening effect that is caused by irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermo-Mechanical Modeling and Evaluation of the Cracking Response of Additively Manufactured Monolithic SiC Lattice Structures Subjected to Laser Heating

Increasing operating temperatures of solar receivers is paramount to the efficiency of concentrated solar thermal (CST) and solar power (CSP) systems. Owing to its high temperature stability combined with excellent thermal and optical properties, SiC has been the material of choice for application in high-temperature solar receivers. The state-of-the-art SiC volumetric concentrating solar air receivers such as honeycomb design have been demonstrated in field tests to achieve exit air temperatures approaching 800oC. However, successful application of CST systems for decarbonization requires significant increase in temperature capability of SiC receiver technology. Supported by an award from the Solar Technology Office (SETO), US Department of Energy (DOE), GE Research in collaboration with Heliogen Holdings Inc, is engaged in the development of ultra-High Operating Temperature SiC-matrix Solar Thermal Air Receiver (HOTSSTAR) enabled by additive manufacturing. The program objective is to design and to demonstrate a techno-economically viable SiC air receiver technology to achieve exit air temperature of 1100oC for CST applications. This report summarizes the learnings of a computational study on additively manufactured SiC lattice structures subjected to laser heating. The results from this study aim to help guide the design of a SiC receiver through a better understanding of lattice structure geometric parameters and their implications on the cracking response of the structure. In the study, a heat flux was applied to the surface of a 2”-diameter cylindrical lattice structure to simulate a 4kW CO2 laser. The resulting temperature distribution was applied to a structural model to approximate the stress distribution within the lattice structure and a Weibull analysis was performed to gain insight into the probability of failure and to evaluate the cracking response of the structure. With this approach, the influence of lattice density on temperature, stress, and probability of failure was explored for two different lattice beam spacings. A discussion on modeling assumptions, a comparison with experimental results, and an evaluation of the lattice cracking response is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗