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DOE OSTI2020

A Fast, Two-dimensional Gaussian Process Method Based on Celerite: Applications to Transiting Exoplanet Discovery and Characterization

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonly used as a model of stochastic variability in astrophysical time series. In particular, GPs are frequently employed to account for correlated stellar variability in planetary transit light curves. The efficient application of GPs to light curves containing thousands to tens of thousands of data points has been made possible by recent advances in GP methods, including the celerite method. Here we present an extension of the celerite method to two input dimensions where, typically, the second dimension is small. This method scales linearly with the total number of data points when the noise in each large dimension is proportional to the same celerite kernel and only the amplitude of the correlated noise varies in the second dimension. We demonstrate the application of this method to the problem of measuring precise transit parameters from multiwavelength light curves and show that it has the potential to improve transit parameters measurements by orders of magnitude. Applications of this method include transit spectroscopy and exomoon detection, as well a broader set of astronomical problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Star Wavefront Control at the Occulting Mask Coronagraph Testbed: Monochromatic Laboratory Demonstration for the Roman Coronagraph Instrument

The Astro2020 decadal survey recommended a direct imaging flagship mission with a goal for mission yield of 25 or more potentially habitable exoplanets. A majority of Sun-like stars have a stellar companion that can introduce additional noise into the field of view of any high-contrast imaging instrument and enabling exoplanet discovery around binary stars represents a path to increased coronagraphic instrument efficiency. This includes both of the Alpha Centauri A and B stars which would represent the top science target for direct imaging if companion leakage can be suppressed. Multi-Star Wavefront Control (MSWC) is a technique that removes stellar leakage from both stellar components, enabling direct imaging of exoplanets in many binary star systems. We present the latest testbed results obtained with MSWC as part of the technology development effort focusing on demonstrations conducted on the Occulting Mask Coronagraph (OMC) testbed at JPL. OMC has a layout similar to the Roman Space Telescope coronagraph instrument (CGI) and is outfitted with a MSWC mask with the same design as the contributed mask for the Roman CGI. Our testbed results represent the first demonstrations of this technique using the recently installed full binary source for a geometry matching potential Alpha Centauri observations. Technical Review Abstract: The Astro2020 decadal survey recommended a direct imaging flagship mission with a goal for mission yield of 25 or more potentially habitable exoplanets. A majority of Sun-like stars have a stellar companion that can introduce additional noise into the field of view of any high-contrast imaging instrument and enabling exoplanet discovery around binary stars represents a path to increased coronagraphic instrument efficiency by increasing the available science target pool of bright nearby stars. This includes both of the Alpha Centauri A and B stars which would represent the top science target for direct imaging if companion leakage can be suppressed. Multi-Star Wavefront Control (MSWC) is a technique that removes stellar leakage from both stellar components, enabling direct imaging of exoplanets in many binary star systems . We present the latest testbed results obtained with MSWC as part of the technology development effort focusing on demonstrations conducted on the Occulting Mask Coronagraph (OMC) testbed at JPL during the completed first vacuum window and recent results from the ongoing second vacuum window. The MSWC mask consists of a shaped pupil mask similar to the one used for the Wide-Field of View mode but also includes a set of superimposed, regularly-spaced dots that serve as a diffraction grating. OMC has a layout similar to the Roman Space Telescope coronagraph instrument (CGI) and is configured with a binary imaging mode with a MSWC mask using same design as the contributed mask for the Roman CGI. Our testbed results represent the first demonstrations of this technique using the recently installed full binary source. We present results obtained in Super-Nyquist regime demonstrating suppression in the Super-Nyquist regime for the 3rd diffraction order reaching 8.7e-9 contrast with the Roman pupil. In addition, we present results obtained with the binary-star regime demonstrating 9.6e-8 contrast for a geometry matching potential Alpha Centauri observations in a monochromatic wavelength similar to Band 1. Planned demonstrations in the 2nd vacuum window will focus on Band 3d and Band 4 using the full MSWC mode for an Alpha Centauri geometry.

High-contrast imaging↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential ExoVenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere maybe a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT ‘EM) Survey. I. Confirmation of an Eccentric, Cool Jupiter with an Interior Earth-sized Planet Orbiting Kepler-1514

Despite the severe bias of the transit method of exoplanet discovery toward short orbital periods, a modest sample of transiting exoplanets with orbital periods greater than 100 days is known. Long-term radial velocity (RV) surveys are pivotal to confirming these signals and generating a set of planetary masses and densities for planets receiving moderate to low irradiation from their host stars. Here we conduct RV observations of Kepler-1514 from the Keck I telescope using the High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer. From these data, we measure the mass of the statistically validated giant (1.108 ± 0.023 R {sub J}) exoplanet Kepler-1514 b with a 218-day orbital period as 5.28 ± 0.22 M {sub J}. The bulk density of this cool (∼390 K) giant planet is 4.82{sub −0.25}{sup +0.26}g cm{sup −3}, consistent with a core supported by electron degeneracy pressure. We also infer an orbital eccentricity of 0.401{sub −0.014}{sup +0.013} from the RV and transit observations, which is consistent with planet–planet scattering and disk cavity migration models. The Kepler-1514 system contains an Earth-size, Kepler Object of Interest on a 10.5-day orbit that we statistically validate against false-positive scenarios, including those involving a neighboring star. The combination of the brightness (V = 11.8) of the host star and the long period, low irradiation, and high density of Kepler-1514 b places this system among a rare group of known exoplanetary systems and as one that is amenable to continued study.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2010

Feasibility of Exoplanet Coronagraphy with the Hubble Space Telescope

Herein we report on a preliminary study to assess the use of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) for the direct detection and spectroscopic characterization of exoplanets and debris disks - an application for which HST was not originally designed. Coronagraphic advances may enable the design of a science instrument that could achieve limiting contrasts approx.10deg beyond 275 milli-arcseconds (4 lambda/D at 800 nm) inner working angle, thereby enabling detection and characterization of several known jovian planets and imaging of debris disks. Advantages of using HST are that it already exists in orbit, it's primary mirror is thermally stable and it is the most characterized space telescope yet flown. However there is drift of the HST telescope, likely due to thermal effects crossing the terminator. The drift, however, is well characterized and consists of a larger deterministic components and a smaller stochastic component. It is the effect of this drift versus the sensing and control bandwidth of the instrument that would likely limit HST coronagraphic performance. Herein we discuss the science case, quantifY the limiting factors and assess the feasibility of using HST for exoplanet discovery using a hypothetical new instrument. Keywords: Hubble Space Telescope, coronagraphy, exoplanets, telescopes

Lyon, Richard G.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Technology needs to discover Earth 2.0

Dr. Nick Siegler of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) began his talk by stating that the main goal of the Exoplanet Exploration Program technology effort is to enable future space missions to observe a planetary spectrum of a rocky planet in the habitable zone of its star and understand it in the context of potential life. He went on to say that the main exoplanet discovery tools, the radial velocity and transit techniques, which have discovered more than 95% of the more than 3,400 exoplanets, will not be the techniques to directly image exoplanets, which is needed to get a reflected light spectrum. Spectroscopy will be hard though because there simply aren’t many photons available to use, but it will not be the biggest problem. The biggest problem will be suppressing the light from the stars which can be 10 billion times brighter than a rocky planet in the habitable zone of a Sun analog. Starlight suppression could be done in one of three ways: internal occulters (i.e., coronagraphs), external occulters (i.e., starshades), and nulling interferometers. The latter option is the least technologically mature of the options and one that NASA is not currently pursuing.

Schmitt, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2019

Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) starshade-only architectures

The HabEx mission concept is intended to directly image planetary systems around nearby stars, and to perform a wide range of general astrophysics and solar system observations. The baseline HabEx design would use both a coronagraph and a starshade for exoplanet discovery and characterization. We describe a lower-cost alternative HabEx mission design, which would only use a starshade for exoplanet science. The starshade would provide excellent exoplanet science performance, but for a smaller number of detected exoplanets of all types, including exoEarth candidates, and a smaller fraction of exoplanets with measured orbits. The full suite of HabEx general astrophysics and solar-system science would be supported.

Benson, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2015

Supercomputing in the Age of Discovering Superearths, Earths and Exoplanet Systems

With the Kepler Mission, exoplanet science has entered the era of Big Data and has benefited tremendously from the availability of the NAS (NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division) Pleiades supercomputer. This presentation provides an overview of the history of exoplanet discoveries and highlights the key enabling technologies for Kepler. I provide an overview of the Kepler science pipeline and the algorithms used to analyze the data and detect transiting planets, all of which run routinely on the NAS Pleiades system. The presentation also provides a description of the Blender analysis program used to validate Kepler planet discoveries statistically, and the effort to discover exomoons lurking in Kepler data, both of which also run on Pleiades. Finally, I describe NASA's TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) Mission, which leverages Kepler heritage to provide a science pipeline similar to that for Kepler and that will also run routinely on the NAS Pleiades supercomputer.

big data↗

DOE OSTI2022

EarthShine: Observing our world as an exoplanet from the surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. EarthShine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo “follow the water.” EarthShine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of EarthShine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

EarthShine: Observing Our World as an Exoplanet from the Surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. Earth Shine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo“ follow the water.” Earth Shine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of Earth Shine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

EarthShine↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergies Between the Kepler, K2 and TESS Missions with the PLATO Mission (Revised)

Two transit survey missions will have been flown by NASA prior to the launch of ESA's PLATO Mission in 2026, laying the groundwork for exoplanet discovery via the transit method. The Kepler Mission, which launched in 2009, collected data on its 100+ square degree field of view for four years before failure of a reaction wheel ended its primary mission. The results from Kepler include 2300+ confirmed or validated exoplanets, 2200+ planetary candidates, 2100+ eclipsing binaries. Kepler also revolutionized the field of asteroseismology by measuring the pressure mode oscillations of over 15000 solar-like stars spanning the lifecycle of such stars from hydrogen-burning dwarfs to helium-burning red giants. The re-purposed Kepler Mission, dubbed K2, continues to observe fields of view in and near the ecliptic plane for 80 days each, significantly broadening the scope of the astrophysical investigations as well as discovering an additional 156 exoplanets to date. The TESS mission will launch in 2017 to conduct an all-sky survey for small exoplanets orbiting stars 10X closer and 100X brighter than Kepler exoplanet host stars, allowing for far greater follow-up and characterization of their masses as well as their sizes for at least 50 small planets. Future assets such as James Webb Space Telescope, and ground-based assets such as ESOs Very Large Telescope (VLT) array, the Exremely Large Telescope (ELT), and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) will be able to characterize the atmospheric composition and properties of these small planets. TESS will observe each 24 X 96 field of view for 30 days and thereby cover first the southern and then the northern hemisphere over 13 pointings during each year of the primary mission. The pole-most camera will observe the James Webb continuous viewing zone for one year in each hemisphere, permitting much longer period planets to be detected in this region. The PLATO mission will seek to detect habitable Earth-like planets with an instrument composed of 26 small telescopes in several 2232 square deg FOVs with a range of observation durations over a mission lifetime of up to eight years. This paper summarizes the findings of the KeplerK2 missions, previews the likely results from the TESS mission, and explores the lessons learned and to be learned from these prior missions that can be incorporated into the observation and data reduction strategy for the PLATO Mission so as to maximize the science return.

exoplanet detection↗

NASA NTRS2018

Life Beyond the Solar System: Remotely Detectable Biosignatures

For the first time in human history, we will soon be able to apply to the scientific method to the question "Are We Alone?" The rapid advance of exoplanet discovery, planetary systems science, and telescope technology will soon allow scientists to search for life beyond our Solar System through direct observation of extrasolar planets. This endeavor will occur alongside searches for habitable environments and signs of life within our Solar System. While these searches are thematically related and will inform each other, they will require separate observational techniques. The search for life on exoplanets holds potential through the great diversity of worlds to be explored beyond our Solar System. However, there are also unique challenges related to the relatively limited data this search will obtain on any individual world.

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn↗

NASA NTRS2023

Multi-Star Wavefront Control at the Occulting Mask Coronagraph Testbed: Monochromatic Laboratory Demonstration for the Roman Coronagraph Instrument

The Astro2020 decadal survey recommended the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), NASA’s direct imaging flagship mission, with a goal to achieve a statistically robust mission yield of 25 or more potentially habitable exoplanets. One way to achieve is to increase the instrument effectiveness by introducing additional bright, nearby targets. A majority of Sun-like stars have a stellar companion that can introduce additional noise into the field of view of any high-contrast imaging instrument and enabling exoplanet discovery around binary stars represents a path to increased corona graphic instrument efficiency by increasing the available science target pool of bright nearby stars. This includes both of the Alpha Centauri A and B stars which would represent the top science target for direct imaging if companion leakage could be suppressed. Multi-Star Wavefront Control(MSWC) is a technique that removes stellar leakage from both stellar components, enabling direct imaging of exoplanets in many binary star systems which can potentially increase corona graphic instrument effectivenessWe present the latest testbed results obtained with MSWC as part of the technology development effort focusing on demonstrations conducted on the Occulting Mask Coronagraph (OMC) testbed at JPL during thevacuum test window last winter, with an additional vacuum test planned for this fall. The MSWC mask consists of a shaped pupil mask similar to the one used for the Wide-Field of View mode, but also includes a set of superimposed, regularly-spaced dots that serve as a diffraction grating. OMC has a layout similar to the RomanSpace Telescope coronagraph instrument and configured with a binary imaging mode with a MSWC mask using same design as the contributed mask for the Roman coronagraph. Our testbed results represent the first demonstrations of this technique using the recently installed full binary source. We present results demonstrating suppression in the Super-Nyquist regime for the 3rd diffraction order reaching 8.7e-9 contrast with the Roman pupil. In addition, we present results obtained with a physical binary source and running MSWC in a binary star regime demonstrating 9.6e-8 contrast for a geometry matching potential Alpha Centauri observations in a515 nm monochromatic wavelength (similar but bluer than for Band 1) using the 5th diffraction order. Planned demonstrations in the upcoming vacuum window this fall will focus on Band 3d and Band 4 using the full MSWC mode for an Alpha Centauri geometry.

Roman Coronagraph Instrument↗

NASA NTRS2019

TESS Discoveries

TESS discoveries have already become fruitful targets for HST follow up, and this will undoubtedly continue through the JWST era. In addition to providing targets for atmospheric characterization, TESS' Level One Science Requirement is to measure masses for 50 transiting planets smaller than 4 Earth radii. A full suite of ground based facilities will be working together to optimize the TESS science yield. Somewhat surprisingly though, no study has quantified the accuracy of mass constraints required to yield robust atmospheric properties of small planets. Previous work showed that the mass of a transiting exoplanet could be inferred from its transmission spectrum alone. The method leverages the effect of the planet's surface gravity on the atmospheric scale height, which in turn influences the transmission spectrum. However, significant degeneracies exist between transmission spectra of planets with different masses and compositions, making difficult to unambiguously determine the planet's mass and composition in many cases. I will present the first quantitative answer to this pressing question. Our analysis places definitive limits on how accurate mass constraints need to be in order to unambiguously determine atmospheric composition for a diverse array of planets ranging from terrestrial-size (TRAPPIST-1-like) to mini-Neptunes and hot Jupiters. These results broadly impact the community of scientists working on exoplanets -- from the full breadth of ground based observers conducting TESS follow-up, to those studying planet populations, and finally to those planning atmospheric investigations. This is particularly timely as the STScI Director charged the HST-TESS Advisory committee to report to the Space Telescope Users Committee on how HST can best support follow-up observations of TESS exoplanet discoveries. The community needs to determine optimal strategies for maximizing the rapid scientific return from TESS targets.

Batalha, Natasha E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Dark Planets of the WASP-47 Planetary System

Exoplanet discoveries have demonstrated a vast range of planetary system architectures. The demographic of compact planetary systems are especially interesting from the perspective of planetary formation and the evolution of orbital dynamics. Another interesting demographic is that of giant planets in eccentric orbits, since these planets have likely had a dynamical history involving planet–planet scattering events. The WASP-47 system is particularly fascinating since it combines these two demographics, having both compact planetary orbits and a giant planet on an eccentric orbit within the system the habitable zone. Here we provide an analysis of the WASP-47 system from the perspective of atmospheric detection and characterization. We discuss the system architecture and the potential for additional long-period planets. We simulate expected phase variations as a function of planet orbital phase for the system due to the combined effect of the planets. We present an analysis of precision photometry of WASP-47 from the K2 mission, phased on each of the planets. The analysis rules out the detection of phase signatures for the two inner-most planets, enabling constraints upon their albedos and atmospheric properties. Our study concludes that WASP-47b is an example of a “dark” planet with a tentative geometric albedo of 0.016 and a 1σ upper limit of 0.17. The WASP-47e data are consistent with a broad range of albedos, but also show early evidence of having a relatively low albedo. The growing number of dark, short-period giant planets provide the framework of an ideal sample for studying low albedo dependence on atmospheric composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗